Dow tops 14,000

#51
#51
As I pointed out earlier, the point I was referencing was:

While 14 percent rated their personal financial situation as excellent and 10 percent as poor, the vast majority found themselves in the middle. About 43 percent rated their finances as good, and 43 percent as fair.
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I may have used the term "economy" a little loosely, but the point is that no matter how those people think their concept of "the economy" is doing, it's pretty telling that they personally think they are doing OK.
 
#52
#52
volinbham said:
I've been trying to follow this specific contention made by you - "consumer sentiment is down". The Consumer Sentiment Index says it's up. You seem to suggest other polls indeed say consumer sentiment is down yet you've shown no poll results to suggest that. Further, these mystery poll results are now claimed to offer more fine-tuned viewpoints :ermm:.
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And somehow you assume that I am only referring to the Consumer Sentiment Index when I have indicated otherwise. I love how you can take a statement and craft it into some warped viewpoint.

Now claimed? It's called fact. A nationwide poll of say a thousand people and local polls in states and even say congressional districts give a better viewpoint. Free lesson in polling for you....many localized polls are much more revealing than one nationwide poll.
 
#53
#53
GAVol said:
As I pointed out earlier, the point I was referencing was:



I may have used the term "economy" a little loosely, but the point is that no matter how those people think their concept of "the economy" is doing, it's pretty telling that they personally think they are doing OK.
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Doing OK in one area. My job being secure and my ability to pay for more expensive goods and overall view of the economy are a little different.
 
#54
#54
http://stocks.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=stocks&cdn=money&tm=26&gps=406_822_1276_647&f=10&su=p649.0.147.ip_&tt=2&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http%3A//www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

Highlights

  • Actual: 103.9 (from upwardly revised 108.5)
Key Factors

  • The decline is consistent with the consumer sentiment index, higher gas prices and higher interest rates.
  • The decline is the the 3rd over the last 4 months after the 5 1/2 year high now notched in the upwardly revised May.
  • Support comes from stronger growth outlook, tight labor market and strong stock market.
  • Labor differential (jobs 'plentiful' less 'hard to get') slipped to 5.9 pts. Reached an 11.4 high in March.
  • 1 year inflation expectations remained around 5.4% in June -- highest since August and twice the yoy growth of CPI.
 
#56
#56
CSpindizzy said:
Doing OK in one area. My job being secure and my ability to pay for more expensive goods and overall view of the economy are a little different.
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Of course they are . . . But it's obvious that there's a disconnect going on when the numbers for the economy are as low as they are, but the numbers for personal finance are pretty good.
 
#57
#57
GAVol said:
Of course they are . . . But it's obvious that there's a disconnect going on when the numbers for the economy are as low as they are, but the numbers for personal finance are pretty good.
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How is job security the same thing as personal finance? I could feel secure that my dog catcher job is guaranteed but still think my finances are stretched thin. I can be living paycheck to paycheck but still at least know I have a job.
 
#58
#58
CSpindizzy said:
How is job security the same thing as personal finance?
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Its a fact that if you are doing well financially, that you are a better employee. If your not doing that well financially, then you don't perform as well as you might think at work. Trust me I know, I was in that particular boat about 4 years ago.
 
#59
#59
CSpindizzy said:
How is job security the same thing as personal finance? I could feel secure that my dog catcher job is guaranteed but still think my finances are stretched thin. I can be living paycheck to paycheck but still at least know I have a job.
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I think I've pointed out about 3 times which stat in that poll I was referencing, and it wasn't the job security stat.

I have no idea what we're arguing about.
 
#62
#62
CSpindizzy said:
And somehow you assume that I am only referring to the Consumer Sentiment Index when I have indicated otherwise. I love how you can take a statement and craft it into some warped viewpoint.

Now claimed? It's called fact. A nationwide poll of say a thousand people and local polls in states and even say congressional districts give a better viewpoint. Free lesson in polling for you....many localized polls are much more revealing than one nationwide poll.
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I haven't claimed you only referred to the CSI - just that you ignore it.

Until today, you haven't posted any polling data to support your claim.

The Gallup Poll is interesting but a month old - normally not an issue but since the CSI was down in June then up by an unexpectedly high margin in July we could see the same event show in the Gallup poll for July.

Since you appear to be the holder of the "many localized polls" that are more revealing I guess we are left once again to take your word for it - you have your finger on the pulse of the American public and we are left with those national polls of limited value.
 
#63
#63
volinbham said:
I haven't claimed you only referred to the CSI - just that you ignore it.

Until today, you haven't posted any polling data to support your claim.

The Gallup Poll is interesting but a month old - normally not an issue but since the CSI was down in June then up by an unexpectedly high margin in July we could see the same event show in the Gallup poll for July.

Since you appear to be the holder of the "many localized polls" that are more revealing I guess we are left once again to take your word for it - you have your finger on the pulse of the American public and we are left with those national polls of limited value.
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Have you supported your claim?

It's not that hard to look for these polls. I do admit that I have access to far more polls than are publicly released since many of the polling firms are my clients. You can easily look around to find support for my view. Or I can just say your claim, not backed up, is just as reliable?

I never said I am ignoring what you referenced. Look at the link I provided. Look at the trend of the same thing you referenced and it does not match your claim. While there are som up-ticks look at the overall picture. I never ignored it. I just chose to look at other polls since this one was claimed to be unreliable.
 
#64
#64
CSpindizzy said:
Have you supported your claim?

It's not that hard to look for these polls. I do admit that I have access to far more polls than are publicly released since many of the polling firms are my clients. You can easily look around to find support for my view. Or I can just say your claim, not backed up, is just as reliable?

I never said I am ignoring what you referenced. Look at the link I provided. Look at the trend of the same thing you referenced and it does not match your claim. While there are som up-ticks look at the overall picture. I never ignored it. I just chose to look at other polls since this one was claimed to be unreliable.
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Since we can't agree on a definition of consumer sentiment, the data can support no view. Even the Gallup data you provided shows an upswing in the public's view of current economic conditions while it shows a downswing in future expectations.

So consumer sentiment is both up and down depending on how you define it and which source material you pick.

Thus my statement early in this thread
Bottomline, we really don't know how consumers feel about the economy at this point in time.
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#65
#65
Considering the massive face plant the dollar's done this year, I wonder how much of the gain in stock value represents an erosion in the purchasing power of the dollar.

It's not like our GDP growth is anything special at this point in time.
 
#66
#66
Not sure how this is better:

Current Economic Conditions
January Excellent is 52%
June Excellent is 34%

Six month drop of 18 points.

Economic Outlook
January Excellent is 38%
June Excellent is 23%

Getting Worse
January is 50%
June is 70%
 
#67
#67
jdsa said:
Considering the massive face plant the dollar's done this year, I wonder how much of the gain in stock value represents an erosion in the purchasing power of the dollar.

It's not like our GDP growth is anything special at this point in time.
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Very limited impact.
 
#69
#69
As expected. The numbers continue to be all over the place and seem to match the news of the day. The high gas prices and sub-prime news of the Spring drove numbers down. As these things become digested and are no longer glaring news items, the numbers move back up.
 
#70
#70
Wonder what it would have been had this recent market downturn been factored in? Add the AHMI desire to liquidate and the record oil price today and they'd probably slide.
 
#71
#71
CSpindizzy said:
Wonder what it would have been had this recent market downturn been factored in? Add the AHMI desire to liquidate and the record oil price today and they'd probably slide.
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I was thinking the exact same thing as I posted the article, but so far it seems the effect of high oil/gas prices has been minimal. Eventually you'd think there's a psychological price barrier somewhere that will make people really slow down.
 
#72
#72
but consumer confidence was through the roof. people must EARNESTLY believe the economy is in great shape.
 
#74
#74
The market will drop 20% if the fed doesn't step in and lower interest rates to stop this credit crunch we currently have because of all this subprime stuff. The junk spread has increased 200 basis points in two weeks. scary.
 
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