Dow tops 14,000

#77
#77
The surveys were done in July - no big economic news. The issue becomes one of validity - exactly what do these polls measure? I would say there is an increasing influence of what the media says about the economy.

The CSI was measured prior to the 14K mark. It appears that much of the data for this study may have been prior to the 14K mark as well.

The market is still up significantly for the year so I'm not sure how much the DJIA movement directly impacts CCI and CSI. If there were continued coverage about it being up or down, I think we'd see more impact.
 
#78
#78
It's all based on perception. Hence my original point. Take a look at this morning's headlines of overseas markets dropping significantly. Oil hitting new records, etc. will give a completely different reading if this were done today. Next week again will give a different story.
 
#79
#79
I don't think that people really understand the crisis this economy is currently in. This subprime stuff in the last two weeks has frozen the credit markets. nothing is getting done. People are calling credit lines on anything with a questionable credit. We're going to see a lot more leveraged companies go under (even ones that aren't mortgage related) if things continue like this. Debt has been so cheap the last couple of years that many companies are leveraged to the hill. AHM, a prime mortgage company, with a great reputation just went under because their credit lines got cut. They weren't even having a lot of defaults. Watch this stuff filter in to other businesses. It's only a matter of time. The fed better get off it's butt and do something.
 
#81
#81
droski said:
I don't think that people really understand the crisis this economy is currently in. This subprime stuff in the last two weeks has frozen the credit markets. nothing is getting done. People are calling credit lines on anything with a questionable credit. We're going to see a lot more leveraged companies go under (even ones that aren't mortgage related) if things continue like this. Debt has been so cheap the last couple of years that many companies are leveraged to the hill. AHM, a prime mortgage company, with a great reputation just went under because their credit lines got cut. They weren't even having a lot of defaults. Watch this stuff filter in to other businesses. It's only a matter of time. The fed better get off it's butt and do something.
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wiping out overleveraged companies is exactly what tough economies do. the credit crunch is a significant problem, but not due to the rates. It's because of the enormous leverage in the market. The fed will withstand the cries of those screaming from their own poor decisions in an effort to keep inflation at bay.
 
#82
#82
BigPapaVol said:
wiping out overleveraged companies is exactly what tough economies do. the credit crunch is a significant problem, but not due to the rates. It's because of the enormous leverage in the market. The fed will withstand the cries of those screaming from their own poor decisions in an effort to keep inflation at bay.
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you are right, interest rates are not the problem (they are already very low) but lowering interest rates 100 basis points would stop this subprime thing in its track and therefore would filter over to the other credit markets. The fed has done similar things in the past like during the long term capital situation. It's a bad sign when good companies go under soley based on fear. Yes these companies shouldn't have been this leveraged but were seeing a massive overeaction with mortgages trading 20-30% below fair value just because people are having margin calls and therefore selling their debt, making the debt fall further, creating more margin calls. This type of stuff unattended creates market crashes. See 1987. IMO the fed will have no choice but to step in. And the funny thing is most of the media is ignoring this situation.
 
#83
#83
but inflation destroys more market value over short periods than any near term debt selloff could even begin to erode
 
#84
#84
BigPapaVol said:
but inflation destroys more market value over short periods than any near term debt selloff could even begin to erode
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inflation is very low and frankly the least of our problems here. I hate to be a "sky is falling" type guy, but this credit crunch is much much worse than people realize. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5-10% drop in the dow in the next week. Look at the banks, they're tanking. Homebuilders tanking. Credit companies tanking. edit: CSE a unit that soley loans to corporations and has zero real estate or subprime exposure is down 20% today and droped from 28 to 15.50 in 3 months.
 
#85
#85
and apparently the rest of the world is awfully concerned with our credit issues. looks like the world markets are in full retreat today.
 
#86
#86
droski said:
inflation is very low and frankly the least of our problems here. I hate to be a "sky is falling" type guy, but this credit crunch is much much worse than people realize. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5-10% drop in the dow in the next week. Look at the banks, they're tanking. Homebuilders tanking. Credit companies tanking. edit: CSE a unit that soley loans to corporations and has zero real estate or subprime exposure is down 20% today and droped from 28 to 15.50 in 3 months.
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I do agree that this is the worst credit crunch that I've personally had to weather.
 
#88
#88
CSpindizzy said:
But wait. Weren't these polls inaccurate? Aren't polls worthless?
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this was some strong mocking of my tongue in cheek statement that CCI represents what people earnestly believe.

why ask the question about polls being worthless? I'm already implying that they are useless in my tone (which you're saying you understood)? makes the above pair of questions utterly stupid.

oh, I see, you missed the boat again here and are making it appear that you didn't miss the boat, but I did. I understand.
 
#89
#89
Whatever you said. Keep living in that delusional world. Mocking me is worthwhile but mocking you is utterly stupid. Oh the double standard you live by. How can you be mocking me when I've said this is perception of those polled? That is accurate. How can you mock that? You clearly have a comprehension problem.
 
#90
#90
CSpindizzy said:
Whatever you said. Keep living in that delusional world. Mocking me is worthwhile but mocking you is utterly stupid. Oh the double standard you live by. How can you be mocking me when I've said this is perception of those polled? That is accurate. How can you mock that? You clearly have a comprehension problem.
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did you just cut and paste this response from one of your other non-responses from another thread?
 
#91
#91
No but you seem to have issues answering questions posed to you. How complicated can it be to answer something someone asks you? You have yet to answer a question posed to you. Can you do that? Are you capable? Please don't let the number of questions posed overwhelm you.
 
#92
#92
CSpindizzy said:
No but you seem to have issues answering questions posed to you. How complicated can it be to answer something someone asks you? You have yet to answer a question posed to you. Can you do that? Are you capable? Please don't let the number of questions posed overwhelm you.
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wow, that's a lot of posing.

i don't seem to remember a question being posed here, just an absurd response to my jest.
 
#93
#93
Perhaps reading posts rather than automatically typing out questions and snide comments would cause you to see the questions posed not only in this topic but others as well.

The absurd reply to the absurd?
 
#94
#94
CSpindizzy said:
Perhaps reading posts rather than automatically typing out questions and snide comments would cause you to see the questions posed not only in this topic but others as well.

The absurd reply to the absurd?
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OK, technically you asked questions in your response, but you had missed the point so far that answering them would have been moot. You followed that by implying that you had understood my sarcasm (which you clearly had not) and turned it into this.

It isn't a big deal. You're not particularly sharp so you turn debate into some silly semantics exercise, which evolves into a crazy point about chasing ones tail. Just leave it alone and we'll find another point to joust about when you have more ammo.
 
#95
#95
Ummm. I've asked questions multiple times. I'm not sure why you're stuck on the absurd statement on the absurd statement. You're not sharp on catching questions being asked of you so perhaps we'll keep jousting about you missing questions or just not being able to answer them. I'll make it easy and just not ask you any. You've done a marvelous job establishing your inability to answer simple questions and even when they are pointed out to you again, you refuse. In all honesty, you'd make a good Senator. The craft of evasion and asking questions as a response to questions has truly been mastered by you.
 
#99
#99
CSpindizzy said:
Ummm. I've asked questions multiple times. I'm not sure why you're stuck on the absurd statement on the absurd statement. You're not sharp on catching questions being asked of you so perhaps we'll keep jousting about you missing questions or just not being able to answer them. I'll make it easy and just not ask you any. You've done a marvelous job establishing your inability to answer simple questions and even when they are pointed out to you again, you refuse. In all honesty, you'd make a good Senator. The craft of evasion and asking questions as a response to questions has truly been mastered by you.
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forget the point, why is it that you consistently have this style of argument with about five different people, each considerably brighter than you, on this board? the debate consistently sees you asking meaningless and often off topic questions followed by degeneration into dogs chasing tails and others' inability to answer your inane questions.
 
#100
#100
Actually, if dodging questions implies brightness you are definitely MENSA material. Had you consistently read the questions you would have noted they ask questions actually directly related to the topic. Perhaps the reason why the 'debate' exists is that a topic-related question is asked. Instead of answering that question you answer with cheap insults and your own warped version of the original question.

Simply put if you want to waste your time answering my question or even commenting, all you have to do is answer the question. If my questions are meaningless then just don't reply at all. I really don't see how replying with questions completely unrelated to the topic or just sophmoric insults is considered bright. It amuses me that you find me stupid but yet spend the time repeatedly arguing over something you call stupid. Either you yourself are as dumb as you claim I am or are really bored with your personal life. Carrying on this conversation implies that you are on my level described by you as low in intelligence. So while trying to insult me you have managed to place yourself on my level. Looking at your own comments I'd say you've slid down a few notches below me. But please feel free continuing the insults. It provides great entertainment. But try to stay on topic.
 
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