East Tennessee Weather II

#3,152
#3,152
norrislakevol said:
Yeah we're pushing 70 degrees already here in northern Anderson County.
Click to expand...
Already set the record high in Knoxville today. We may break the record high monthly temperature for January which is 77F set in 1950 and 2020.

I think the big question will be is it a line of storms or any cells that also develop ahead of the line. Think a line or quasi-line of severe convection is most likely with the shear profile. Main impacts will continue to be damaging winds and tornadoes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol
#3,153
#3,153
MetVol said:
Already set the record high in Knoxville today. We may break the record high monthly temperature for January which is 77F set in 1950 and 2020.

I think the big question will be is it a line of storms or any cells that also develop ahead of the line. Think a line or quasi-line of severe convection is most likely with the shear profile. Main impacts will continue to be damaging winds and tornadoes.
Click to expand...

Do you think the Cap that we have right now will limit the potential of supercells ahead of the front?
 
#3,154
#3,154
Vol knight said:
Do you think the Cap that we have right now will limit the potential of supercells ahead of the front?
Click to expand...
I think it could limit it somewhat but not eliminate it. May still get some forming closer to the front and move this direction. Just hard to get widespread warm sector convection when the trough is so positively tilted. That's not to downplay anything though. The risk damaging wind and tornadoes will be there this evening.
 
#3,155
#3,155
MetVol said:
Already set the record high in Knoxville today. We may break the record high monthly temperature for January which is 77F set in 1950 and 2020.

I think the big question will be is it a line of storms or any cells that also develop ahead of the line. Think a line or quasi-line of severe convection is most likely with the shear profile. Main impacts will continue to be damaging winds and tornadoes.
Click to expand...


Agreed, QLCS vorticities ahead of the main line are possible in some areas with some straight line wind damage almost a given with any severe line segaments that develop. I am keeping an eye on things even a little ahead of that. Mesoscale analysis parameters look at least marginal for a couple of discrete cells, particularly to our southwest. We shall see.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MetVol
#3,156
#3,156
MetVol said:
I think it could limit it somewhat but not eliminate it. May still get some forming closer to the front and move this direction. Just hard to get widespread warm sector convection when the trough is so positively tilted. That's not to downplay anything though. The risk damaging wind and tornadoes will be there this evening.
Click to expand...

I will say that this is likely not going to be like Wednesday where the only severe thunderstorm warnings in East TN was in the Chattanooga area.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MetVol
#3,157
#3,157
Vol knight said:
I will say that this is likely not going to be like Wednesday where the only severe thunderstorm warnings in East TN was in the Chattanooga area.
Click to expand...
I'd agree. All areas susceptible with highest risk around Knoxville area and westward. Basically how SPC has the outlook drawn right now. Can't really disagree with it.
 
#3,163
#3,163
davethevol said:
Looking like not much will happen?
Click to expand...
I think the warm air aloft and cap because of this positively tilted trough is going to hold back a lot of widespread severe convection. It's limiting the overall instability. It's really warm outside, but since it's really warm aloft, instability is still fairly low. This is why the main risk is going to continue to be damaging winds with thunderstorms and the potential for some spin up tornadoes.

If this were a more neutral or negatively tilted trough, upper levels would be much cooler and we'd have higher instability in place for more widespread severe convection. As it is, most of the convection will remain shallow, low-topped with the wind/tornado risk still continuing through the evening.
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol and davethevol
#3,165
#3,165
davethevol said:
Looking like not much will happen?
Click to expand...

Not as bad as it possibly could have been in the short term it looks like. Severe parameters are falling in a lot of categories in East Tennessee according to meso analysis. Models do indicate a squall line later tonight though moving through.
 
#3,166
#3,166
norrislakevol said:
Not as bad as it possibly could have been in the short term it looks like. Severe parameters are falling in a lot of categories in East Tennessee according to meso analysis. Models do indicate a squall line later tonight though moving through.
Click to expand...
It appears as if the squall line tonight will be the best chance of severe weather for our area.
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol
#3,167
#3,167
@Adam2014
@MetVol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_mean.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_sprd.gif

Since I am a hobby meteorologist, and you all seem to be formally trained, please help me out with this one. This is the SREF model based 48 hours out for snowfall. What exactly am I looking at here? What is the difference between snowfall total spread and snowfall total mean? I have found that this model can actually be accurate at times when predicting snowfall accumulations about 1200 feet or above in elevation or so, but this model is certainly an outlier when compared to the NAM (which I think is out to lunch on this one), the GFS, and the EURO.
 
#3,168
#3,168
GFS actually getting more aggressive for snowfall amounts in the higher elevations and the northern Tennessee valley. Most will likely be on elevated surfaces though. Interesting...
 
#3,169
#3,169
norrislakevol said:
@Adam2014
@MetVol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_mean.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_sprd.gif

Since I am a hobby meteorologist, and you all seem to be formally trained, please help me out with this one. This is the SREF model based 48 hours out for snowfall. What exactly am I looking at here? What is the difference between snowfall total spread and snowfall total mean? I have found that this model can actually be accurate at times when predicting snowfall accumulations about 1200 feet or above in elevation or so, but this model is certainly an outlier when compared to the NAM (which I think is out to lunch on this one), the GFS, and the EURO.
Click to expand...

The SREF is an ensemble of model members that does a good job with giving confidence and seeing where a forecast is relative to the ensemble mean. You're looking at the ensemble mean with those members you've added links for. The key to remember with some of that is that it's not accounting for melting.

For fun, here's the most recent 18z HRRR that goes out that far.
snku_acc.us_ov.png


Accounting for melting, it's significantly lower and probably just grassy surfaces for the valley. Mountains could get some impactful accumulations based on the latest guidance. All depends on the track of that surface low and where the mid-level frontogenesis band sets up.
snodpc_acc.us_ov.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol
#3,170
#3,170
@Adam2014
@MetVol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_mean.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_sprd.gif

Since I am a hobby meteorologist, and you all seem to be formally trained, please help me out with this one. This is the SREF model based 48 hours out for snowfall. What exactly am I looking at here? What is the difference between snowfall total spread and snowfall total mean? I have found that this model can actually be accurate at times when predicting snowfall accumulations about about 1200 feet in elevation or so, but this model is certainly an outlier when compared to the NAM (which I think is out to lunch on this one), the GFS, and the EURO.
MetVol said:
The SREF is an ensemble of model members that does a good job with giving confidence and seeing where a forecast is relative to the ensemble mean. You're looking at the ensemble mean with those members you've added links for. The key to remember with some of that is that it's not accounting for melting.

For fun, here's the most recent 18z HRRR that goes out that far.
snku_acc.us_ov.png


Accounting for melting, it's significantly lower and probably just grassy surfaces for the valley. Mountains could get some impactful accumulations based on the latest guidance. All depends on the track of that surface low and where the mid-level frontogenesis band sets up.
snodpc_acc.us_ov.png
Click to expand...

Thank you, that makes a lot of sense. I am guessing that is why I have successfully used it to predict at times accumulations at my house along the northern Anderson/Union County line, while Clinton, Norris, and Knoxville get far less. I sit at 1450 feet in elevation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MetVol
#3,171
#3,171
norrislakevol said:
@Adam2014
@MetVol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_mean.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/15/sref_namer_048_snow_total_sprd.gif

Since I am a hobby meteorologist, and you all seem to be formally trained, please help me out with this one. This is the SREF model based 48 hours out for snowfall. What exactly am I looking at here? What is the difference between snowfall total spread and snowfall total mean? I have found that this model can actually be accurate at times when predicting snowfall accumulations about about 1200 feet in elevation or so, but this model is certainly an outlier when compared to the NAM (which I think is out to lunch on this one), the GFS, and the EURO.


Thank you, that makes a lot of sense. I am guessing that is why I have successfully used it to predict at times accumulations at my house along the northern Anderson/Union County line, while Clinton, Norris, and Knoxville get far less. I sit at 1450 feet in elevation.
Click to expand...
Don't know if you've ever seen this site, but it's useful for looking at ranges and probabilities for specific snow amounts. It's been around a couple years but continues to get some improvements and updates.
Experimental Winter Snow Probabilities
 
  • Like
Reactions: norrislakevol
#3,173
#3,173
  • Like
Reactions: MetVol
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top