East Tennessee Weather II

[headhunter15]

Rough weather potentially tomorrow. Mid-morning to evening.

 

[Matt2496]

 

[volsarelife1]

This weekend system looking a bit interesting so far. Still ways out however

 

[headhunter15]

This weekend system looking a bit interesting so far. Still ways out however

Not even trying to think about it! I don’t want to jinx it!

 

[norrislakevol]

GFS looks very nice. All about the timing of how much moisture is still present when the colder air arrives. The precip looks to be quite heavy at times, so dynamic cooling will play at least some factor....we'll see.

 

[volsarelife1]

Just watched a Facebook live with Todd Howell. He seemed to be hinting without saying that this could be a good system

 

[davethevol]

Just watched a Facebook live with Todd Howell. He seemed to be hinting without saying that this could be a good system

The one time I cant have it. Got to get on the road for spring break with little kids.

 

[Matt2496]

 

[MetVol]

It'll be an interesting case Friday night and Saturday morning. Ultimately think it's mainly a higher elevation event. I'm skeptical we get the level of dynamic cooling needed for much snow accumulation in the valley. Might have an inch or so mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces, but it'll be difficult to get impactful accumulation with the warm surfaces.

 

[Vol knight]

Here's a good article explaining how an area can still see a good amount of snow on the ground even if the ground temperatures are above freezing prior to the snow falling.

Weather Myths: Too Warm for the Snow to Stick? – iWeatherNet

 

[headhunter15]

Memphis is getting in on the action.

 

[MetVol]

Latest forecast from NWS Morristown. Seems very reasonable. Highest amounts probably going to be across the Cumberland Plateau.

 

[Matt2496]

Seems like MRX is heavily downplaying the threat of heavy snow. I don't really blame them considering how they've been treated on social media these last few winter events.

 

[volsarelife1]

Seems like MRX is heavily downplaying the threat of heavy snow. I don't really blame them considering how they've been treated on social media these last few winter events.

They have whiffed pretty badly tho

 

[Matt2496]

They have whiffed pretty badly tho

Yes but it's extremely difficult to predict these sorts of events, especially with all the micro-climates here in East Tennessee.

With that said this event however extremely promising. This will probably jinx it, but it's probably the most promising event so far this winter. Miller A's tend to work out well for East Tennessee so fingers are crossed.

 

[hUTch2002]

Where’s MetVol?

Edit: How the crap did I miss your post MV? That’s weird. I see it now. My bad!

 

[Matt2496]

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...All of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest
North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could also accumulate in trees which
might make them weak or unstable in the gusty winds. Some power
outages could be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[Matt2496]

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...All of east Tennessee, southwest Virginia and southwest
North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could also accumulate in trees which
might make them weak or unstable in the gusty winds. Some power
outages could be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

We could see blizzard-like conditions with those kinds of wind gusts.

 

[volsarelife1]

Yes but it's extremely difficult to predict these sorts of events, especially with all the micro-climates here in East Tennessee.

With that said this event however extremely promising. This will probably jinx it, but it's probably the most promising event so far this winter. Miller A's tend to work out well for East Tennessee so fingers are crossed.

I'm really liking the path of the low at the moment. Appears to be heading for the snow slot at the moment! Hopefully it holds true

 

[MetVol]

Interesting discussion/post from NWS Morristown.



Really this is a great track for snow across much of the area, and the mid-level frontogenesis and conditional instability will be favorable for some heavy rates and banding. This will mainly be for 2-4 hours early on Saturday morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if some places see some 1-2"/hr rates. The good news for those warning to see accumulation is that this will be happening at night. Even with cloud cover, March sunlight really starts to kill off snow on surfaces, so it should start to melt away on Saturday afternoon. Most models are placing 1-3" across the valley (and this accounts for melting) with some heavier totals where banding might setup. Gusty winds may cause some power outages if some of the heavy snow really accumulates and sticks to trees that are starting to bud out.

We'll see some record lows possible by Sunday morning with the cold airmass in place and snow cover across the region. Probably have some areas of black ice where any moisture refreezes.

 

[headhunter15]

Interesting discussion/post from NWS Morristown.



Really this is a great track for snow across much of the area, and the mid-level frontogenesis and conditional instability will be favorable for some heavy rates and banding. This will mainly be for 2-4 hours early on Saturday morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if some places see some 1-2"/hr rates. The good news for those warning to see accumulation is that this will be happening at night. Even with cloud cover, March sunlight really starts to kill off snow on surfaces, so it should start to melt away on Saturday afternoon. Most models are placing 1-3" across the valley (and this accounts for melting) with some heavier totals where banding might setup. Gusty winds may cause some power outages if some of the heavy snow really accumulates and sticks to trees that are starting to bud out.

We'll see some record lows possible by Sunday morning with the cold airmass in place and snow cover across the region. Probably have some areas of black ice where any moisture refreezes.

If only it would get me a snow day on Monday…

 

[Matt2496]

 

[norrislakevol]

The latest GFS run shows some very heavy bursts of snow over the northern Cumberland Plateau and northern valley. Could pile up quickly in my neck of the woods. The GFS has really stuck to it's guns generally speaking. NAM seems a little far west in comparison to the EURO and GFS.

 

[MetVol]

If only it would get me a snow day on Monday…

Yeah, sadly, the chances of that are pretty low. Snow has a hard time sticking around this time of year with the increasing sun angle each day.

 

[MetVol]

The latest GFS run shows some very heavy bursts of snow over the northern Cumberland Plateau and northern valley. Could pile up quickly in my neck of the woods. The GFS has really stuck to it's guns generally speaking. NAM seems a little far west in comparison to the EURO and GFS.

I agree. I think the Cumberland Plateau and northern East Tennessee could see some decent snow totals around 4" from this. Wouldn't want to be out driving early Saturday morning in these heavy snow rates.