MRX Discussion:
As of 3PM ET temperatures were warming into the low to mid 70`s
underneath
partly cloudy skies.
Radar shows a line of showers and
a few thunderstorms developing across middle Tennessee associated
with an approaching
front. SW low level
flow continues to advect
a moist and increasingly unstable airmass northward this afternoon
with RAP analyzing
MLCAPE`s between 500-1000j/kg across the
central/southern valley and plateau areas. The
front will continue
to progress east this afternoon with
moisture advection
continuing. Expect a gradual increase in storm coverage and
intensity over the next couple of hours as this current activity
moves into a more favorable airmass situated across east
Tennessee.
Shear will be more than adequate for
updraft
organization as deep layer
shear increases to 40-50 knots (higher
north of I-40).
Shear vectors oriented just off the boundary will
promote at least some discrete
convection and line/bowing segments
into the evening. While damaging winds will continue to be the
main hazard, the threat of tornadoes certainly shouldn`t be
ignored.
Shear within the lowest 1km between 15-25 knots along
with favorable
LCL heights will maintain the
tornado risk through
the evening, especially south of I-40 where better
instability
will be located. Additionally, any rotating updrafts will contain
a risk of large
hail.