East Tennessee Weather II

#4,427
#4,427
I could be wrong but looks like they’re starting to back down on the GFS model already for East TN. I bet it’ll end up being an inch or less for Knoxville.
 
#4,428
#4,428
hUTch2002 said:
I could be wrong but looks like they’re starting to back down on the GFS model already for East TN. I bet it’ll end up being an inch or less for Knoxville.
Click to expand...

Still 6 days out and the 6Z and 18Z runs tend to be less accurate and spew out outlier results....
 
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#4,429
#4,429
BigOrangeMojo said:
Still 6 days out and the 6Z and 18Z runs tend to be less accurate and spew out outlier results....
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Agreed. I may post the GFS 6 days prior to this Fridays event with the 0Z NAM that’s about to update to show how different a system can/will look.

I really believe that the models are having a hard time with the rapid systems developing with the cold air rushing down. I’ve noticed that with the past two 18Z GFS that the systems practically follow one another.

We may have higher ratios than 10:1 as well. I believe I saw a map that had 12:1 for Knox county earlier today.
 
#4,430
#4,430
* As I posted that


Latest NAM run has the low 150 miles further south than the GFS which could put some of Tennessee in the money for snow.

*edit
Doesn’t have the wrap around moisture the GFS had after full update.
 
#4,432
#4,432
rocktopper16 said:
Take a look at the 06z. Models are all over the place
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There’s inconsistency like always but right now it appears as if everything is backing way down from what it said 2-3 days ago. No surprise and there’s still time to go back the other direction but that’s not how things generally work in the valley. I predict a big nothing burger in the valley. Like I said, 1 inch tops.
 
#4,438
#4,438
Latest MRX update is cautiously optimistic!

“Confidence is increasing for potential of accumulating snow” “ Values are uncertain but looks to be a possible area wide event”
 
#4,439
#4,439
rocktopper16 said:
Latest MRX update is cautiously optimistic!

“Confidence is increasing for potential of accumulating snow” “ Values are uncertain but looks to be a possible area wide event”
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What area are you talking about? I see a lot of Memphisians on here so curious if you’re talking Knoxville or not.
 
#4,442
#4,442
hUTch2002 said:
Yeah, I enjoy this crap but I’m a total novice here. Thanks for the education! I’ll take anything you got.
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No problem! I am more of a severe weather nerd than snow, but I still enjoy following the models and seeing which one got it right or wrong.

Also, if you really want to get into weather stuff, I'd recommend reading the AFD's (Area Forecast Discussion) on MRX's website which are written by their meteorologists. You can learn a lot about weather forecasting from those. Pivotal weather or tropical tidbits are good sites to look at model runs. GFS and Euro are long range models. RAP, HRRR, and NAM are all short-range. The main thing models are useful for is trending. Checking multiple models and different model runs can help you pick up on trends and make better predictions.

We have had an actual meteorologist comment here. So if you have any other questions, I would defer to his expertise. @MetVol
 
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#4,443
#4,443
Matt2496 said:
No problem! I am more of a severe weather nerd than snow, but I still enjoy following the models and seeing which one got it right or wrong.

Also, if you really want to get into weather stuff, I'd recommend reading the AFD's (Area Forecast Discussion) on MRX's website which are written by their meteorologists. You can learn a lot about weather forecasting from those. Pivotal weather or tropical tidbits are good sites to look at model runs. GFS and Euro are long range models. RAP, HRRR, and NAM are all short-range. The main thing models are useful for is trending. Checking multiple models and different model runs can help you pick up on trends and make better predictions.

We have had an actual meteorologist comment here. So if you have any other questions, I would defer to his expertise. @MetVol
Click to expand...
Well said!

I'm cautiously optimistic on Monday but keeping my expectations tempered. High probability of arctic air but snow totals usually aren't very high along these arctic cold fronts, so lower confidence in snow amounts. Based on past events, models usually start with a decent snow and we get a lighter 1-2 inches when it's all done.

We'll see. These things are so hard to predict several days out and further. No one cares if the forecast is off by 0.3 inches of rain, but that makes a huge difference in snow totals.
 
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#4,444
#4,444
MetVol said:
Well said!

I'm cautiously optimistic on Monday but keeping my expectations tempered. High probability of arctic air but snow totals usually aren't very high along these arctic cold fronts, so lower confidence in snow amounts. Based on past events, models usually start with a decent snow and we get a lighter 1-2 inches when it's all done.

We'll see. These things are so hard to predict several days out and further. No one cares if the forecast is off by 0.3 inches of rain, but that makes a huge difference in snow totals.
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Strange question that I’d never even considered until you said this, but what is the approximate conversion between rain and snow? I.E., if 1/4 inch of precipitation falls as rain, how much snow would it have amounted to if it had been cold enough to freeze?
 
#4,445
#4,445
Looks like Knoxville possibility of snow just keeps going down and down, as is customary. Dang, I thought we might actually get something decent from this system.
 
#4,446
#4,446
bleedorange0037 said:
Strange question that I’d never even considered until you said this, but what is the approximate conversion between rain and snow? I.E., if 1/4 inch of precipitation falls as rain, how much snow would it have amounted to if it had been cold enough to freeze?
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It depends on the ratios. 10:1 for example would be 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of rain. 1/4 of that would be 2 inches. Also, it doesn’t have to be 32 for snow to stick or fall. Weather can be weird.
 
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#4,447
#4,447
hUTch2002 said:
Looks like Knoxville possibility of snow just keeps going down and down, as is customary. Dang, I thought we might actually get something decent from this system.
Click to expand...
Possibility of snow greater than 1 inch is at 50% right now and that’s pretty good. Greater than 3 is at 30% which is good too.
 
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#4,448
#4,448
rocktopper16 said:
Possibility of snow greater than 1 inch is at 50% right now and that’s pretty good. Greater than 3 is at 30% which is good too.
Click to expand...
I think I accidentally had it on GEM rather than GFS and didn’t realize it until now. Hey, so where do you see that? Got a link?
 
#4,449
#4,449
rocktopper16 said:
Possibility of snow greater than 1 inch is at 50% right now and that’s pretty good. Greater than 3 is at 30% which is good too.
Click to expand...
Probabilities are still good and ensembles are a good way to look at things this far out.

ECMWF is still showing some decent snow with most of the members on board with it.
1704986379252.png

1704986410371.png

The GFS has more spread but still showing snow.

The big question remains: do we get a surface low that strengthens along the front and moves up the coast. If we can get that, we can get higher amounts. If there's less blocking and the low moves out into the Atlantic before strengthening, we'll get less snow.
 
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#4,450
#4,450
MetVol said:
Probabilities are still good and ensembles are a good way to look at things this far out.

ECMWF is still showing some decent snow with most of the members on board with it.
View attachment 609130

View attachment 609131

The GFS has more spread but still showing snow.

The big question remains: do we get a surface low that strengthens along the front and moves up the coast. If we can get that, we can get higher amounts. If there's less blocking and the low moves out into the Atlantic before strengthening, we'll get less snow.
Click to expand...
Accurate as one can be with that assement MeT. I appreciate that post!

I was going off the MRX discussion from this morning. I like the stance they are going with instead of what the Nashville weather market had done.

I still believe that the models are having a hard time transferring the energy once the low moves into the gulf. The only thing I am solid on is that with the cold we could see accumulation with low QPF.
 
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