East Tennessee Weather II

#4,401
#4,401
rocktopper16 said:
Model runs that the use as a precursor for predicting weather. That’s showing around MLK day which is quite a ways out still but it’s interesting to observe for now. I’ll update once this clipper moves past tomorrow.

Speaking of; we will be seeing some high winds midday Tuesday with this system moving through.
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Thanks. I’m very much an amateur but I enjoy watching the weather, looking at different models and seeing what folks more knowledgeable than I post on here.
 
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#4,402
#4,402
hUTch2002 said:
Thanks. I’m very much an amateur but I enjoy watching the weather, looking at different models and seeing what folks more knowledgeable than I post on here.
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What site do you use? I can give you some pointers if you’d like. IE; for events further than 4 days out the GFS/EURO are the way to go with watching. The NAM is best for under 3 days and is usually pretty close to what’ll occur.
 
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#4,403
#4,403
I’ll add that anything that far out is a fantasy. It may certainly be that cold and we may get that snow but head caution with seeing runs like that.

I do think we will see some arctic air enter Tennessee and I do like our odds with the snow. Ensembles aren’t all over the place and they are staying true with the cold air and wintry precip. It’ll be fun to watch.
 
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#4,404
#4,404
rocktopper16 said:
I’ll add that anything that far out is a fantasy. It may certainly be that cold and we may get that snow but head caution with seeing runs like that.

I do think we will see some arctic air enter Tennessee and I do like our odds with the snow. Ensembles aren’t all over the place and they are staying true with the cold air and wintry precip. It’ll be fun to watch.
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I'm liking that it's been quiet a few model runs now that the GFS is still showing snow for next Monday into Tuesday. Still a long way out but nice that it's been consistently showing it now for a few days
 
#4,405
#4,405
volsarelife1 said:
I'm liking that it's been quite a few model runs now that the GFS is still showing snow for next Monday into Tuesday. Still a long way out but nice that it's been consistently showing it now for a few days
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Ensembles are showing the same too. Latest GFS run slams E.TN.
 
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#4,406
#4,406
Potential winter storm next week. Alight boys and girls, let’s wheel this one to existence!

Todd Howell on WBIR just said this is the one to watch. This system will have plenty of cold air to play with.
 
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#4,408
#4,408
rocktopper16 said:
What site do you use? I can give you some pointers if you’d like. IE; for events further than 4 days out the GFS/EURO are the way to go with watching. The NAM is best for under 3 days and is usually pretty close to what’ll occur.
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I used this one but I usually just search and go with whichever I click first. I don’t really have a go to outside of coming to this forum of course!
weather.us

Model charts for Tennessee (Snow depth) | GFS (15 days)

GFS (15 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/17/2024, 12:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "Tennessee"
weather.us weather.us
 
#4,411
#4,411
What’s the potential looking like for Memphis/West TN? They’re talking like snow is a good possibility but not saying how much yet.
 
#4,413
#4,413
Burhead said:
What’s the potential looking like for Memphis/West TN? They’re talking like snow is a good possibility but not saying how much yet.
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I’m as concerned about the single digit to potentially below zero temps as I am about the snow. Homes here are not built for those conditions. Lots of pipe bursts imminent
 
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#4,414
#4,414
gordonr24 said:
I’m as concerned about the single digit to potentially below zero temps as I am about the snow. Homes here are not built for those conditions. Lots of pipe bursts imminent
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You’re not kidding there. That Christmas freeze last year was brutal. I work in commercial insurance and there were more claims from the freeze than the big hurricane that had hit a couple months prior.
 
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#4,415
#4,415
hUTch2002 said:
You’re not kidding there. That Christmas freeze last year was brutal. I work in commercial insurance and there were more claims from the freeze than the big hurricane that had hit a couple months prior.
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I work in insurance as well. My office was slammed last year before Christmas. I also had a hot water heater pipe in the attic freeze and my heat in the home went out. I was fortunate that the pipe did not burst, but many were not. I bought insulation tubes and insulated as many places that I could get to myself.
 
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#4,416
#4,416
gordonr24 said:
I work in insurance as well. My office was slammed last year before Christmas. I also had a hot water heater pipe in the attic freeze and my heat in the home went out. I was fortunate that the pipe did not burst, but many were not. I bought insulation tubes and insulated as many places that I could get to myself.
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Definitely not MLGW's finest hour...
 
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#4,418
#4,418
Burhead said:
What’s the potential looking like for Memphis/West TN? They’re talking like snow is a good possibility but not saying how much yet.
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Too far out to determine amounts. Heavy snow amounts is still at 20-30% with frigid temperatures being at 75%. After this storm rides out we will have a much clearer solution to Mondays storm.

Interesting enough, I’d keep an eye out on Fridays system as well. It looks like west to middle TN may cash in on wrap around moisture.
 
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#4,419
#4,419
Burhead said:
What’s the potential looking like for Memphis/West TN? They’re talking like snow is a good possibility but not saying how much yet.
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Models still flip flopping with amounts and it's 6 days out. (Referring to Memphis)

6 days ago, models were saying SE MO was supposed to have a historic snowfall yesterday/today. It ended up all rain...
 
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#4,420
#4,420
I know the closer we get it gets a bit easier to forecast but when should we get a clearer picture?
 
#4,421
#4,421
gordonr24 said:
There’s never a fine hour with MLGW. Last year’s freeze and this past summer’s storms exposed the horrible infrastructure in Shelby Co.
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Memphis fireman here we stayed busy with the burst pipes for sure.. I’m off due to surgery I’m glad I’m missing working in this mess coming..
 
#4,424
#4,424
BigOrangeMojo said:
For Memphis, I'd say Thursday around this time is if we know if we will have a slam dunk event (like 2021) or the traditional contingent winter weather event we normally see...
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Gotcha appreciate the info here’s to hoping it happens.
 
#4,425
#4,425
BigOrangeMojo said:
For Memphis, I'd say Thursday around this time is if we know if we will have a slam dunk event (like 2021) or the traditional contingent winter weather event we normally see...
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I think at this point, a hard arctic outbreak is a given.

But you’re right. This Thursday, we’ll have a better outlook on how much snow we get. I don’t want the city buried like 2021.
 
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