East Tennessee Weather II

#4,927
#4,927
DooleyOrangePants said:
It’s time for the snow tradition - get in the truck and head to Waffle House. Temp shows 29 versus the official “31”, so there’s some hope yet this thing brings us a good snow. Trying to will this thing into existence.
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Someone wiser than me will have to explain but it’s not the surface temp. How would one of you more weather-savvy folks explain it?
 
#4,928
#4,928
DooleyOrangePants said:
It’s time for the snow tradition - get in the truck and head to Waffle House. Temp shows 29 versus the official “31”, so there’s some hope yet this thing brings us a good snow. Trying to will this thing into existence.
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Wait till this upcoming Friday night. It's a pretty good bet we see some type of wintry precip, and at least some snow...perhaps a quite significant amount.
 
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#4,929
#4,929
hUTch2002 said:
Someone wiser than me will have to explain but it’s not the surface temp. How would one of you more weather-savvy folks explain it?
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If it's the "official" temperature being reported, then it just may not have been updated, and small changes in locality can make a big difference.. Temperatures generally cool rapidly with precip falling. In some instances, you can start out as rain and be around 34 degrees, if the precip gets heavy enough, you can get something called dynamic cooling (If conditions are right upstairs) changing the precip to all snow as the warm air in the atmosphere basically gets used up by melting the snow flakes into rain. As the precip lightens it can switch back to rain. This is just one small example. Tons and tons of factors at play.
 
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#4,930
#4,930
Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.
 
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#4,931
#4,931
norrislakevol said:
Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.
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Lock it in, my man! Let’s do this. Fingers crossed for minimal change.
 
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#4,933
#4,933
Burhead said:
How we looking for the Friday possibility here in the Memphis area?
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Still looks like it may happen here but European and GFS has backed off its crazier, nearly identical solutions from 24, 36, and 48 hours ago...

Might be a daytime event here so temps will be more in question than east or west of here.
 
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#4,934
#4,934
norrislakevol said:
Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.
Click to expand...
Yea. That Low current projected path is the perfect setup for snow in all of Tennessee bringing plenty of moisture up from the gulf. Just have to watch it as it can shift North though and bring warmer air up.. This is Friday midnight heading into Saturday Morning as of now.

Screenshot_20250105_125736_Chrome.jpg
 
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#4,935
#4,935
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Yea. That Low current projected path is the perfect setup for snow in all of Tennessee bringing plenty of moisture up from the gulf. Just have to watch it as it can shift North though and bring warmer air up.. This is Friday midnight heading into Saturday Morning as of now.

View attachment 712182
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Right, latest EURO run has a similar path to the GFS now, but a weaker storm. Around 1 to 2 inches for everyone in east Tennessee. The models will shift back and forth especially over the next 2 days before they get closer to locking in to a solution. We are certainly going to be set up for a good one as far as the pattern and ground temperatures go.
 
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#4,942
#4,942
Couple of inches for East Tenn. Maybe 3-5 in some areas. As soon as it makes the northward turn, it is going to skeedaddle fast. Not going to stick around long enough to dump. But a lot can change in 4 days. Might just get slush.
 
#4,943
#4,943
VolInNorthCack said:
Couple of inches for East Tenn. Maybe 3-5 in some areas. As soon as it makes the northward turn, it is going to skeedaddle fast. Not going to stick around long enough to dump. But a lot can change in 4 days. Might just get slush.
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I’m really hoping we see at least a 4-6. To me, what good is cold weather without the snow. Give me one good heavy snow a season and I’m happy.
 
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#4,944
#4,944
Just looked at the 10 day weather forecast for Knoxville at weather.com and there is some snow scheduled for Knoxville on Friday and also later on this month.
 
#4,945
#4,945
Even though there is still a good bit of uncertainty with this upcoming system, I would recommend getting anything you're running low on in preparation.
 
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#4,947
#4,947
BigOrangeMojo said:
Still looks like it may happen here but European and GFS has backed off its crazier, nearly identical solutions from 24, 36, and 48 hours ago...

Might be a daytime event here so temps will be more in question than east or west of here.
Click to expand...

@Burhead

Looking more and more like it Friday here. Sweet spot appears to be south and west of Memphis (somewhere in a Pine Bluff to LR to Texarkana triangle). Very similar area to 2021 storm except not as cold...
 
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#4,948
#4,948
volsarelife1 said:
I'm just liking the way that low is tracking at the moment with having the cold air in place. We'll see if it plays out or not
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Really liking this setup and track even more now. Still too far out for specifics or details. But I wouldn't be shocked to see a winter storm warning be issued in the coming days. 4-8 inches from this one wouldn't surprise me at all.

Going to have that gulf moisture with the cold air in place. Also may see some even colder air than expected when we get the northwest winds flowing with the snow pack from Kentucky
 
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#4,949
#4,949
volsarelife1 said:
Really liking this setup and track even more now. Still too far out for specifics or details. But I wouldn't be shocked to see a winter storm warning be issued in the coming days. 4-8 inches from this one wouldn't surprise me at all.

Going to have that gulf moisture with the cold air in place. Also may see some even colder air than expected when we get the northwest winds flowing with the snow pack from Kentucky
Click to expand...

Yeah. 12Z definitely favors more of 2024 storm track, which dumped a ton in ETN, vs 2021, which dumped less....
 
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