East Tennessee Weather II

[norrislakevol]

I should have clarified. I’m in the Hardin Valley area and drove to Lenoir City. All rain and pretty heavy at times. If this were snow we would be getting several inches. Maybe next weekend?

As of right now, that seems like a solid bet.

 

[hUTch2002]

It’s time for the snow tradition - get in the truck and head to Waffle House. Temp shows 29 versus the official “31”, so there’s some hope yet this thing brings us a good snow. Trying to will this thing into existence.

Someone wiser than me will have to explain but it’s not the surface temp. How would one of you more weather-savvy folks explain it?

 

[norrislakevol]

It’s time for the snow tradition - get in the truck and head to Waffle House. Temp shows 29 versus the official “31”, so there’s some hope yet this thing brings us a good snow. Trying to will this thing into existence.

Wait till this upcoming Friday night. It's a pretty good bet we see some type of wintry precip, and at least some snow...perhaps a quite significant amount.

 

[norrislakevol]

Someone wiser than me will have to explain but it’s not the surface temp. How would one of you more weather-savvy folks explain it?

If it's the "official" temperature being reported, then it just may not have been updated, and small changes in locality can make a big difference.. Temperatures generally cool rapidly with precip falling. In some instances, you can start out as rain and be around 34 degrees, if the precip gets heavy enough, you can get something called dynamic cooling (If conditions are right upstairs) changing the precip to all snow as the warm air in the atmosphere basically gets used up by melting the snow flakes into rain. As the precip lightens it can switch back to rain. This is just one small example. Tons and tons of factors at play.

 

[norrislakevol]

Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.

 

[headhunter15]

Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.

Lock it in, my man! Let’s do this. Fingers crossed for minimal change.

 

[DooleyOrangePants]

Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.

Now that’s what I like to hear!

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

How we looking for the Friday possibility here in the Memphis area?

Still looks like it may happen here but European and GFS has backed off its crazier, nearly identical solutions from 24, 36, and 48 hours ago...

Might be a daytime event here so temps will be more in question than east or west of here.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Latest GFS run for the Friday/Sat event. It's keeping the Low south of us and indicating an all snow event. This will continue to change, but this run indicates 4 to 8 inches of accumulation for all of East Tennessee. This is based on a 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio.

Yea. That Low current projected path is the perfect setup for snow in all of Tennessee bringing plenty of moisture up from the gulf. Just have to watch it as it can shift North though and bring warmer air up.. This is Friday midnight heading into Saturday Morning as of now.

 

[norrislakevol]

Yea. That Low current projected path is the perfect setup for snow in all of Tennessee bringing plenty of moisture up from the gulf. Just have to watch it as it can shift North though and bring warmer air up.. This is Friday midnight heading into Saturday Morning as of now.

View attachment 712182

Right, latest EURO run has a similar path to the GFS now, but a weaker storm. Around 1 to 2 inches for everyone in east Tennessee. The models will shift back and forth especially over the next 2 days before they get closer to locking in to a solution. We are certainly going to be set up for a good one as far as the pattern and ground temperatures go.

 

[headhunter15]

NWS in Ft. Worth already discussing the system that would impact us Friday/Saturday.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

NWS in Ft. Worth already discussing the system that would impact us Friday/Saturday.

Cotton Bowl is Friday. That gonna be a traffic nightmare out there if they get 3-5 inches...

 

[headhunter15]

Some freezing rain right now in Morristown.

 

[volsarelife1]

Really liking the setup and potential for this Friday/Saturday system

 

[hUTch2002]

Really liking the setup and potential for this Friday/Saturday system

The GFS runs I’ve seen are showing like and inch or two. The GEM is more generous. What are you seeing that you like?

 

[volsarelife1]

The GFS runs I’ve seen are showing like and inch or two. The GEM is more generous. What are you seeing that you like?

I'm just liking the way that low is tracking at the moment with having the cold air in place. We'll see if it plays out or not

 

[VolInNorthCack]

Couple of inches for East Tenn. Maybe 3-5 in some areas. As soon as it makes the northward turn, it is going to skeedaddle fast. Not going to stick around long enough to dump. But a lot can change in 4 days. Might just get slush.

 

[DooleyOrangePants]

Couple of inches for East Tenn. Maybe 3-5 in some areas. As soon as it makes the northward turn, it is going to skeedaddle fast. Not going to stick around long enough to dump. But a lot can change in 4 days. Might just get slush.

I’m really hoping we see at least a 4-6. To me, what good is cold weather without the snow. Give me one good heavy snow a season and I’m happy.

 

[Volfan1000]

Just looked at the 10 day weather forecast for Knoxville at weather.com and there is some snow scheduled for Knoxville on Friday and also later on this month.