East Tennessee Weather

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#8,876
#8,876
My reaction to the latest Euro is:

What a mess!

The 12z Euro did get another big jump and placed the low in the Smokies (its very uncommon for a low to track over the Appalachians). It front loads us with 2-4 inches, then changes to all rain.

Guys, I can't believe I'm saying this, but we can't trust any model runs until at least Saturday. It's obvious to me that the models are having a very difficult time with this upcoming system.
 
#8,877
#8,877
mrorange211 said:
What are all of these predictions for snow tomorrow? Any chance for actual snow in the Central Valley?
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clipper system..depending on track you might get a fast burst and get some small accumulation..generally these are moisture starved and get broken up over the plateau but some might survive or take a different track..This is what happened to cause the NWS to issue the short term alert for Athens to pickup 1/2 inch last night.
 
#8,881
#8,881
TWC changed projection of 1-3" Sunday night to "a chance of snow" for Knoxville. Now saying 43 as the high on Monday and 34 as the low.
 
#8,882
#8,882
Here's the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Morristown:

BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING MODELS
BRINGING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY FROM THE NW WITH LIGHT SNOW THEN A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS
THEIR ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE AND DURATION FOR THIS EVENT.

MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE PRECIPITATION STARTING AS ALL SNOW WITH
THE FIRST WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY SO THAT THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES NE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CHANGES BACK TO ALL SNOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND GFS ALL SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY MONDAY THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR JUST EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY MORNING AND DEEPENS BEFORE MOVING NE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY. ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST. HAVE KEPT LOWS AND HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.

PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS WEEKEND...AND MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING
THIS STORM SYSTEM...ESPECAILLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS!
Click to expand...
 
#8,883
#8,883
Here's a good graphic from the NWS:

image_full8.jpg
 
#8,886
#8,886
Here is the latest GFS..it doesn't look like the clipper that is coming through tonight is expected to bring much precip to the valley....you still might get lucky and catch a moderate line of snow showers that could produce some measurable snow

gfs_asnow_us_6.png
 
#8,889
#8,889
To be honest, I think I'm going to hop onto the uncertainty bandwagon at this point. There are several factors right now that are hard to predict.

1. What's the storm track?
2. How strong will the Low pressure be?
3. What's the exact timing of the system?

Hopefully within the next couple days, we can start to get a better idea of the answers to these questions.


Edit: Another thing to keep in mind is that this system is currently in the Pacific ocean between Japan and the Aleutians.
 
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#8,892
#8,892
RockyTop411 said:
Is Saturday the earliest any reliable predicitions come out?
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I can't speak for JC or RT, but here's how I will approach this system in terms of forecasting.

1. When the Saturday 12z model runs come out, I'll start to post the snow amounts I'm leaning towards.

2. When the Saturday night/Sunday Morning 0z runs come out, I'll post my final forecast.
 
#8,896
#8,896
Vol knight said:
He's not talking about snow accumulation when he says 1.5 inches. Read his words carefully. 1.5 inches of precipitation. If even 1 inch of that precipitation is frozen, that's 10 inches of snow.
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Yep. The NWS says it will start snowing at 8pm Sunday night and snow through 1pm Monday before rain mixes in. Thats 17 hours of snow before the rain/snow mix.

There is no way it will not accumulate in that long period of time after all this cold. The question here is, will the first rain drop start at 1pm or earlier?
 
#8,898
#8,898
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Yep. The NWS says it will start snowing at 8pm Sunday night and snow through 1pm Monday before rain mixes in. Thats 17 hours of snow before the rain/snow mix.

There is no way it will not accumulate in that long period of time after all this cold. The question here is, will the first rain drop start at 1pm or earlier?
Click to expand...

There's still questions that need to be answered first. Timing is one of them.
 
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