East Tennessee Weather

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#8,852
#8,852
06z GFS back to showing limited snow for central valley 3 inches and not much for southern valley
gfs_asnow_us_28.png
 
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#8,853
#8,853
NOAA statement on both systems

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY...SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...TYPE...
AND THE TIMING ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT MUCH OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
 
#8,854
#8,854
Friday system

A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING WITH
IT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA..NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE..AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...THEN SPREAD EAST OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY USHERING
VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BESIDES THE SNOW...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
 
#8,855
#8,855
VolnJC said:
06z GFS back to showing limited snow for central valley 3 inches and not much for southern valley
gfs_asnow_us_28.png
Click to expand...

That looks like the same setup as Washington DC's 2 feet a few weeks ago. Looks like the model is thinking the Low is going right over us like that one did.
 
#8,857
#8,857
I know it's still four days out but this shows the Low pulling up warm air with it keeping it rain until it passes us and then the wrap around turns to snow. Either way thats alot of precipitation. If we could stay cold enough that would be an epic snow storm.
 
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#8,861
#8,861
TechnoVol said:
That's the thing I'm not understanding... We believe the moisture will be here but what about cold enough temps both aloft and surface to support snow.
Click to expand...

The way I'm understanding it is the warm air being pulled up from the gulf pushing the cold above us. Maybe VK or JC can explain it better.
 
#8,863
#8,863
Unless there is a reversal just look for a combination of snow/rain next week..I would guess it would be a slushy mess in the valley with measurable snow in the higher elevations


Sunday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25.


Washington's Birthday

Snow likely before 2pm, then rain and snow likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain likely after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Monday Night

Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Tuesday

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Tuesday Night

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
 
#8,864
#8,864
VolnJC said:
Unless there is a reversal just look for a combination of snow/rain next week..I would guess it would be a slushy mess in the valley with measurable snow in the higher elevations


Sunday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25.


Washington's Birthday

Snow likely before 2pm, then rain and snow likely between 2pm and 4pm, then rain likely after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Monday Night

Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Tuesday

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Tuesday Night

A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Click to expand...

Thanks JC.

Could you see the roads in Knoxville becoming a mess?
 
#8,866
#8,866
Heres is what David Aldrich at WVLT tweeted so it's not really etched in stone yet. Seems it is yet again giving them a headache trying to predict it.
 

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#8,870
#8,870
I have a couple points that I want to get off my chest.

1. JC, I know you love the GFS, but I must warn you that only using that model is not a good way to forecast a system.

2. I agree that the Canadian is not the greatest model in the world, but I give it kudos for really being the only model that has been the most consistent. There have been times that it's had its moments, so I wouldn't completely dismiss it.
 
#8,871
#8,871
TWC now saying 1-3" of snow for Sunday night, with 1" of ice/snow accumulation on Monday.

Man this storm has been all over the place.
 
#8,872
#8,872
I'll say this: The GFS right now is on an island, meaning that it's the only model right now showing an inland runner that moves the low very close to us.
 
#8,875
#8,875
new alert

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
LATE TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA..NORTHEAST TENNESSEE..AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...THEN
SPREAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY 6 AM
FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY...SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...TYPE...
AND THE TIMING ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT MUCH OF THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
 
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