East Tennessee Weather

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#9,501
#9,501
Update:

A mesoscale discussion has been issued for the East Tennessee Valley and Mountains. Storms are going to start firing up shortly, and there's a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued. Primary threat appears to be large hail up to quarter size, with damaging winds also possible.
 
#9,502
#9,502
Vol knight said:
Update:

A mesoscale discussion has been issued for the East Tennessee Valley and Mountains. Storms are going to start firing up shortly, and there's a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being issued. Primary threat appears to be large hail up to quarter size, with damaging winds also possible.
Click to expand...

Hail? Soon? Dang, I need to get somewhere then.
 
#9,503
#9,503
Alert!

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX AND SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOXVILLE...OAK RIDGE...CLINTON...HALLS...KARNS...BEARDEN...MALONEYVILLE...
LAKE FOREST...MASCOT...POWELL...KIMBERLIN HEIGHTS AND SEYMOUR.
Click to expand...
 
#9,504
#9,504
Weather Bulletin:

A low pressure system will move into the area tomorrow producing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Due to the very cold air aloft, there is a chance for some of the thunderstorms to produce small hail around pea size. No severe weather is expected.

Higher elevations could see some light snow accumulations between 2-4 inches, mainly above 3000 feet. Some areas in the Plateau may see some thundersnow.
 
#9,505
#9,505
Alert for folks who have already started gardening!

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT
/9 AM CDT/ MONDAY...

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS OR VEGETATION MAY BE
DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE RECENT WARM SPELL...FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL DAMAGE SENSITIVE VEGETATION...SUCH AS FRUIT
TREES AND BERRIES...IF NOT PROTECTED.
Click to expand...
 
#9,507
#9,507
Fire Statement:

If you're thinking about starting a fire for whatever reason, I would highly recommend not doing it today. The combination of breezy winds and low humidity makes for good conditions for a fire to spread. The plateau is under a Red Flag Warning.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 400...501 AND 502...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 400. FIRE WEATHER ZONE 501.
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 502.

* WIND...25 TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...15 TO 25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
Click to expand...
 
#9,508
#9,508
~Severe Weather Bulletin~

There's a Slight risk for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday for the southern Plateau and southwestern portions of the Southern Valley, and a Marginal risk for everyone else west of Morristown. A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will roll through in the afternoon hours. Primary risk will be damaging winds up to 60 mph, with large hail up to quarter size possible.
 
#9,509
#9,509
Update:

The Slight risk area has expanded to include the rest of the Plateau and portions of the Valley west of Knoxville. The Marginal risk has expanded a little bit to now include Morristown.
 
#9,510
#9,510
Vol knight said:
~Severe Weather Bulletin~

There's a Slight risk for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday for the southern Plateau and southwestern portions of the Southern Valley, and a Marginal risk for everyone else west of Morristown. A line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will roll through in the afternoon hours. Primary risk will be damaging winds up to 60 mph, with large hail up to quarter size possible.
Click to expand...

A suggestion:
Maybe you can give us a diagram on which parts of the map exactly fall under "southwestern", "northeastern", etc. sections of the Valley. I realize that's not your own terminology but maybe you could clarify. The "valley" itself encompasses quite a large area of land so using the term "southwestern" portion is fairly vague. To the average person reading a warning like that they really aren't going to know if their home actually falls into that section. How many miles or zipcodes of land fall in that section?
 
#9,511
#9,511
Coug said:
A suggestion:
Maybe you can give us a diagram on which parts of the map exactly fall under "southwestern", "northeastern", etc. sections of the Valley. I realize that's not your own terminology but maybe you could clarify. The "valley" itself encompasses quite a large area of land so using the term "southwestern" portion is fairly vague. To the average person reading a warning like that they really aren't going to know if their home actually falls into that section. How many miles or zipcodes of land fall in that section?
Click to expand...

The Tennessee river valley runs in a Southwest to Northeast line. I assume anything below Athens or maybe Sweetwater would be the Southwest valley, conversely anything above would be Northeast.
 
#9,513
#9,513
Coug said:
A suggestion:
Maybe you can give us a diagram on which parts of the map exactly fall under "southwestern", "northeastern", etc. sections of the Valley. I realize that's not your own terminology but maybe you could clarify. The "valley" itself encompasses quite a large area of land so using the term "southwestern" portion is fairly vague. To the average person reading a warning like that they really aren't going to know if their home actually falls into that section. How many miles or zipcodes of land fall in that section?
Click to expand...

I'll try to include big cities so you have an idea on where I'm talking about.
 
#9,514
#9,514
Small update:

While I'm not really concerned about a tornado threat with the weak instability, there's enough wind shear for a possible brief isolated tornado.
 
#9,515
#9,515
Here's a graphic from the NWS in Morristown showing the timing of the line of storms.

image_full7.jpg
 
#9,516
#9,516
My thoughts on the upcoming storms:

While the wind shear is pretty good atm, the buoyancy (moisture) looks very weak and limited. The lack of instability is the reason why this Severe threat is only isolated. Because of the isolated threat for Severe weather, I don't anticipate a Watch being issued. Having said that, some areas could still get hit really hard with some of the storms. Wind damage is the primary concern, but some areas may see some hail up to quarter size. Flash flooding is also possible for those who get hit with multiple rounds of heavy rain.
 
#9,517
#9,517
Update:

I have some good news. It appears that the airmass is too stable for any Severe Thunderstorms. We'll still see rounds of moderate rain, gusty winds, and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
 
#9,520
#9,520
~Severe Weather Alert~

There's an Enhanced Risk for Severe thunderstorms for all of West Tennessee. There's a Slight Risk for all of Middle Tennessee. Lastly, there's a Marginal Risk for areas along and west of Knox County. The primary threats for all areas include damaging winds and large hail. Enhanced risk areas could see a few tornadoes (maybe a strong tornado), while Slight and Marginal areas may see an isolated tornado or 2.
 
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