ESPN thinks we go 4-8 next year

[1974Vol]

Sitting here in May it looks to me like the Tennessee roster is better than the rosters of Utah State, Ark. State, Chattanooga, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The Vols are only substantially better than Chattanooga and the Wildcats. The Vols have a worse roster than OU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and South Carolina. I would only make Bama and Oklahoma prohibitive favorites. I would put Ole Miss and Missouri in the push department. This is because Missou lost so many players.

The must win games are Utah State, Arkansas State and Vanderbilt. Tennessee has marginally better personnel and if Jones is THE MAN, he wins these games. Don't see the Vols beating Oklahoma, Alabama or Georgia, especially on the road. If Spurrier gets Thompson to play consistent QB, that's a loss as well. Again if Butch is THE MAN he really needs to break the Gator jinx and find a way to beat Florida in Knoxville. I see Mississippi and Missouri as swing games. He only really needs to win one or both of these if he can't sweep the lesser lights and / or can't seal the deal on the Gators. Anything less than 6 wins and a bowl game is a FAIL. JMHO.

 

[MustafaRasta]

Sitting here in May it looks to me like the Tennessee roster is better than the rosters of Utah State, Ark. State, Chattanooga, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The Vols are only substantially better than Chattanooga and the Wildcats. The Vols have a worse roster than OU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and South Carolina. I would only make Bama and Oklahoma prohibitive favorites. I would put Ole Miss and Missouri in the push department. This is because Missou lost so many players.

The must win games are Utah State, Arkansas State and Vanderbilt. Tennessee has marginally better personnel and if Jones is THE MAN, he wins these games. Don't see the Vols beating Oklahoma, Alabama or Georgia, especially on the road. If Spurrier gets Thompson to play consistent QB, that's a loss as well. Again if Butch is THE MAN he really needs to break the Gator jinx and find a way to beat Florida in Knoxville. I see Mississippi and Missouri as swing games. He only really needs to win one or both of these if he can't sweep the lesser lights and / or can't seal the deal on the Gators. Anything less than 6 wins and a bowl game is a FAIL. JMHO.

solid post.

 

[NotoriousB-I-G]

What I love about the "needs as much time as Spurrier at South Carolina" excuse is that it doesn't even work if you actually think about it for 5 minutes, but people keep clinging to their hazy vision of it because it's all they've got.

Of course, the example is popular here because it's a complete anomaly in this day and time. If you look around at coaches who are succeeding brilliantly at their universities in this day and age, pretty much every one of them had huge winning seasons in their first couple of years at their schools. Malzahn, Saban, Meyer, Franklin, Fisher, Sumlin, Kelly, etc..the list goes on and on.

So the excuse crew here likes to ignore all of them in favor of the example of Spurrier, simply because Spurrier had alot of mediocre years at South Carolina before having some better years. Spurrier was often cited during the Dooley years and now he has been repurposed for the Butch Jones era.

To use this example, we of course ignore the fact that the vast majority of coaches these days who start out with mediocre results end up with mediocre results as well and never turn anything around. Instead we simply assume that the guy we have is much more likely to be Steve Spurrier than he is to be that other 95% and this is a solid bet worth giving the guy 5 years to discover.

Much more fascinating though is that we discard the actual facts of what Spurrier did. We ignore that in all the years of mediocre results, he never had a losing season. We ignore that those 5 years of winning seasons and multiple bowl appearances that we view as mediocre, were actually the most successful continuous stretch of football in South Carolina's entire history.

We also conveniently ignore that for all the success Spurrier has enjoyed in the last 3 years, he's never won an actual championship of any kind and it doesn't look like he ever will.

So, the whole point of the Spurrier-South Carolina Excuse seems to be that if we can completely ignore UT's tradition and resources and lower our aspirations to expecting no more than to be on equal footing with a historic bottom feeder like South Carolina, AND if we pretend that our own coaches' losing seasons are essentially the same as their coaches' winning seasons AND if we're willing to wager 5 years of mediocrity on the idea that our guy will be another rare exception to what usually signifies a successful major college football coach in this day and age...then we can look forward to having a program that still won't win any championships. Sign me up!

All that, plus, the comparison simply doesn't work because Butch Jones doesn't have the resume' that Spurrier has, in fact, he's not even in the same hemisphere.

If we were all sitting here with a coach who had Spurrier's resume', well, we'd all be sitting here with a far more patient approach to Butch Jones. But we can't, because he has NONE of that. Nobody should have made the Jones-Spurrier comparison at any point, but certainly it shouldn't have been made after 5-7.

 

[NotoriousB-I-G]

Sitting here in May it looks to me like the Tennessee roster is better than the rosters of Utah State, Ark. State, Chattanooga, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The Vols are only substantially better than Chattanooga and the Wildcats. The Vols have a worse roster than OU, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and South Carolina. I would only make Bama and Oklahoma prohibitive favorites. I would put Ole Miss and Missouri in the push department. This is because Missou lost so many players.

The must win games are Utah State, Arkansas State and Vanderbilt. Tennessee has marginally better personnel and if Jones is THE MAN, he wins these games. Don't see the Vols beating Oklahoma, Alabama or Georgia, especially on the road. If Spurrier gets Thompson to play consistent QB, that's a loss as well. Again if Butch is THE MAN he really needs to break the Gator jinx and find a way to beat Florida in Knoxville. I see Mississippi and Missouri as swing games. He only really needs to win one or both of these if he can't sweep the lesser lights and / or can't seal the deal on the Gators. Anything less than 6 wins and a bowl game is a FAIL. JMHO.

Agree.

 

[MustafaRasta]

So far on the resume. Butch 1 Spurrier 0

relax. friendly jab. exhibition fight.

 

[sjt18]

I knew Dooley was finished after the Kentucky debacle, but quite frankly, he was a jerk and not a nice person.

Which would matter if no one like that had ever been an effective head coach.

I'm convinced that Butch's background allows him to relate better with kids. He would have likely convinced Bryce Brown to stay, and gotten thru to the likes of Janzen Jackson,Tyler Bray, and Darick.

That's all speculation and frankly I doubt it with respect to Brown. I don't think any coach with an ounce of character would have given into the demands that were supposedly being made by BB and especially his father based on the promises of Kiffin.

And at the end of the day whether he is a nice guy or a jerk... relates to the kids or rules with an iron fist of fear... he still has to win football games. He still has to be able to competently develop and coach players. There are LOTS of "nice guys" who fail as SEC coaches.

I believe Dave Hart needs to come out right now and state that we are going to the mat with Butch Jones, no matter the result this season. We don't need the negative Nancies burning up the keyboards and whining to the likes of Tony Basilio, especially if we get Gibson commited, else poor recruiting becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I know two sports writers in Chattanooga who told me point blank that no way Tennessee wins 6 this year.

And frankly, I used to believe that way. I was wrong... and so are you.

You don't achieve success by telling someone there are no consequences for failure. You achieve success by clearly spelling out expectations and giving a reasonable timeline and rate of improvement.

There is nothing "unreasonable" about expecting at least 6 wins from this team, this fall if Jones has the skill to compete for championships in the SEC. He will beat every team he has a roster advantage over and someone who is equal or a little better in talent simply because he outcoaches them.

Great coaches, coach great.

 

[sjt18]

BTW, Dooley could have survived after UK but he made a stupid decision to go to the 3-4 and then hire Sal. He needed to come back with a great season. Even without Rogers, the '12 O could have given UT a great season... if the D had been even mediocre.

UT football is probably better off that Dooley was exposed early rather than later... but with a D even as good as the one in his first season with Wilcox UT would have contended for the SECE in '12.

His call... his job... he's fired. Next up.

 

[BeattieFeathers]

Which would matter if no one like that had ever been an effective head coach. That's all speculation and frankly I doubt it with respect to Brown. I don't think any coach with an ounce of character would have given into the demands that were supposedly being made by BB and especially his father based on the promises of Kiffin.

And at the end of the day whether he is a nice guy or a jerk... relates to the kids or rules with an iron fist of fear... he still has to win football games. He still has to be able to competently develop and coach players. There are LOTS of "nice guys" who fail as SEC coaches.

And frankly, I used to believe that way. I was wrong... and so are you.

You don't achieve success by telling someone there are no consequences for failure. You achieve success by clearly spelling out expectations and giving a reasonable timeline and rate of improvement.

There is nothing "unreasonable" about expecting at least 6 wins from this team, this fall if Jones has the skill to compete for championships in the SEC. He will beat every team he has a roster advantage over and someone who is equal or a little better in talent simply because he outcoaches them.

Great coaches, coach great.

I suppose nick saban got out coached by watson brown when he lost to Uab? Who was the guy at la tech that beat him?

 

[BeattieFeathers]

BTW, Dooley could have survived after UK but he made a stupid decision to go to the 3-4 and then hire Sal. He needed to come back with a great season. Even without Rogers, the '12 O could have given UT a great season... if the D had been even mediocre.

UT football is probably better off that Dooley was exposed early rather than later... but with a D even as good as the one in his first season with Wilcox UT would have contended for the SECE in '12.

His call... his job... he's fired. Next up.

The kentucky game cost him a year. There was too much negative energy around the man. Butch gets a minimum of four years.

 

[sjt18]

The kentucky game cost him a year. There was too much negative energy around the man. Butch gets a minimum of four years.

Jones can have his own "Kentucky"... and will if your low bar is the best he can climb over. He almost did last year with USA. Vandy is pretty close though most are more inclined to give him a pass due to it being the 1st year. Most will have a hard time stomaching another season like last season and will RIGHTLY question him.

Jones current situation is comparable to Dooley's going into the second year. Young OL's. Questions and youth on the DL. Young talent in the back 7. Very good but unproven WR's and TE's. Reasons for both hope and concern at QB. Jones has a better returning backfield. If he's a better coach then I see no reason to expect the same as Dooley... much less worse than Dooley's 5-7 flop. Let me put it this way. A 4 or 5 win season would mean that Jones only beat non-BCS opponents and teams with a losing record. That would not prove him to be appreciably better than Dooley as a coach.

IMHO, Dooley wanted to be fired well before he was. He had every characteristic after losing DR and seeing the D go so badly so soon of a man broken emotionally by a challenge. He had certainly quit recruiting by the mid-point of the '12 season which would seem to indicate he had no intentions of being back.

I've seen it in business. On a lesser scale, I experienced it as a younger man. Sometimes it goes that way even for people who are capable and talented. Sometimes you just get too deep to ever hope to "fix" it.


Again, I really don't "expect" any of this to be in play at the end of the season. I think Jones is a talented guy. I think he will find a way to win 6-8 games. I think this team will benefit from last year among the returning players. I think the O will be 5+ ppg better than last year. I believe the D will be 3-4 ppg better than last year. That "should" yield 6-8 wins and a far more competitive team.

 

[GrowVol]

The kentucky game cost him a year. There was too much negative energy around the man. Butch gets a minimum of four years.

Four years to get to ?? 6-6,7-5.? Just asking

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

If I am a coach competing with Jones for a recruit after he's finished with less than 6 wins in each of his first two seasons... I can think of dozens of not really even negative recruiting angles to take recruits away from him.

One of them is simply "bluster". Jones enthusiasm is GREAT if it turns into wins. If it doesn't... then it is VERY easy to portray him as nothing more than a guy full of hot air but in over his head against top coaches.

Six to 8 wins with a team that shows up and is competitive every time out... will keep the recruits interested.

I'm with you here. I saw it mentioned in the recruiting forum, a quote from one particular recruit, that his choosing Tennessee or not depends on our success on the field. We're in for a long ride if there isn't at least some visible progress this year, whether we should expect it or not.

 

[TGVol]

It's all speculation at this point.

As opposed to what? Anyone on this :crazy: board ever post anything other than speculation?

 

[BeattieFeathers]

Four years to get to ?? 6-6,7-5.? Just asking

If we were playing cream puffs instead of Oregon and Oklahoma, on the road, mind you, in consecutive seasons, we would win that magical 6th game. Heck, Oregon and Oklahoma would be daunting for Bama.

I want to get back to beating our rivals. Oddly enough, when coach Fulmer was fired, it wasn't for lack of beating Uga or Carolina, for he was 2-1 against each over the last three years of his tenure. He was fired for not beating Bama or Florida under Meyer, but nobody else was either.

I am not prepared to put a number on wins because winning 8 or 9 with vandy's schedule isn't the same as winning 8 or 9 with our schedule. We get Bama every year and a top ten team like ou or Oregon. People get too caught up in the wins without looking at who you play.

 

[Boca Vol]

As opposed to what? Anyone on this :crazy: board ever post anything other than speculation?

Very true!

I've just never seen more people get so wound up over speculation...which is a daily occurrence around here.

 

[UGADawg4Life]

UGA lost their start starting QB and even though they had a good class we had even better - so we should be more then competitive - even last year we played them even and should have won the game. UF will be tough because it's hard to break those losing streaks - people tend to try to hard and actually perform worse because of it. But it's certainly a winnable game especially since we are playing at home (same as Mizzou). Vandy and Kentucky should not even be discussed - if we don't win both of those CBJ will be on hot seat - as should be the case with any UT football coach if they lose to those two.

You're banking on last years recruiting class to be competitive in the SEC?!?! Maybe in basketball.....at UK. But this is football. One recruiting class does not a team make. Takes several in a row. Just ask USCe. And already mentioning CBJ and hot seat is probably not helpful. Although I doubt he comes here often. :whistling:

 

[UGADawg4Life]

I knew Dooley was finished after the Kentucky debacle, but quite frankly, he was a jerk and not a nice person. He was a silver spooned, prep school, ivy league lawyer that could not relate to the average person. He was more concerned about his hairspray, his dry cleaning, the length of sideline benches, whether chicken sandwiches were being served instead of hamburgers etc. I'm convinced that Butch's background allows him to relate better with kids. He would have likely convinced Bryce Brown to stay, and gotten thru to the likes of Janzen Jackson,Tyler Bray, and Darick.
I believe Dave Hart needs to come out right now and state that we are going to the mat with Butch Jones, no matter the result this season. We don't need the negative Nancies burning up the keyboards and whining to the likes of Tony Basilio, especially if we get Gibson commited, else poor recruiting becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I know two sports writers in Chattanooga who told me point blank that no way Tennessee wins 6 this year.

Never heard Clarke Central called a "prep school" nor Virginia called "Ivy League". :unsure: :yes:

 

[TGVol]

You're banking on last years recruiting class to be competitive in the SEC?!?!

Only to supplement some already talented players we have from previous years. QB's & several young talented receivers got a good deal of experience last year. Add to that several key players on both offense and defense with a lot of experience on both sides of the ball (ie Lane, Johnson, Maggit) and we should be much better. Not all freshmen need to shine right away - but we have so many talented ones that if only a few step up early we will be improved from last year. Also, remember we are getting some jucos that have seen a lot of playing time.

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

If we were playing cream puffs instead of Oregon and Oklahoma, on the road, mind you, in consecutive seasons, we would win that magical 6th game. Heck, Oregon and Oklahoma would be daunting for Bama.

I want to get back to beating our rivals. Oddly enough, when coach Fulmer was fired, it wasn't for lack of beating Uga or Carolina, for he was 2-1 against each over the last three years of his tenure. He was fired for not beating Bama or Florida under Meyer, but nobody else was either.

I am not prepared to put a number on wins because winning 8 or 9 with vandy's schedule isn't the same as winning 8 or 9 with our schedule. We get Bama every year and a top ten team like ou or Oregon. People get too caught up in the wins without looking at who you play.

Fulmer was fired for having two losing seasons in four years. Butch will have two in two. Butch was nowhere near the first choice of the fans or the AD. I think he was lucky to get the job not the other way around. Three years is plenty of time to prove whether he can win here. No excuses.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Fulmer was fired for having two losing seasons in four years. Butch will have two in two. Butch was nowhere near the first choice of the fans or the AD. I think he was lucky to get the job not the other way around. Three years is plenty of time to prove whether he can win here. No excuses.

Just out of curiosity, you think Butch is the lucky one not us, what coach do you think we would have ended up with? All of our top choices turned us down. Also what makes you so certain we have a losing season this year?

 

[Orange_Crush]

Which would matter if no one like that had ever been an effective head coach. That's all speculation and frankly I doubt it with respect to Brown. I don't think any coach with an ounce of character would have given into the demands that were supposedly being made by BB and especially his father based on the promises of Kiffin.

And at the end of the day whether he is a nice guy or a jerk... relates to the kids or rules with an iron fist of fear... he still has to win football games. He still has to be able to competently develop and coach players. There are LOTS of "nice guys" who fail as SEC coaches.

And frankly, I used to believe that way. I was wrong... and so are you.

You don't achieve success by telling someone there are no consequences for failure. You achieve success by clearly spelling out expectations and giving a reasonable timeline and rate of improvement.

There is nothing "unreasonable" about expecting at least 6 wins from this team, this fall if Jones has the skill to compete for championships in the SEC. He will beat every team he has a roster advantage over and someone who is equal or a little better in talent simply because he outcoaches them.

Great coaches, coach great.

For whatever it's worth, I agree.

 

[Boca Vol]

If you're Dave Hart sitting with Butch Jones with the schedule in front of you, you take out your orange marker and circle USU, Arky St., UTC, UK, and Vandy as wins. That means Butch needs to win just 1 of the following for UT to be bowl eligible:

Oklahoma
UGA
UF
Bama
Mizzou
S. Carolina
Ole Miss

If Butch is our guy, he should be able to get 1 or 2 of those. There is no reason to expect anything less than 7-5 this season.

The problem becomes (as the 2012-13 teams showed) is when you lose a couple of winnable games how does the team play at the end of the season?

 

[VolAllen]

If you're Dave Hart sitting with Butch Jones with the schedule in front of you, you take out your orange marker and circle USU, Arky St., UTC, UK, and Vandy as wins. That means Butch needs to win just 1 of the following for UT to be bowl eligible:

Oklahoma
UGA
UF
Bama
Mizzou
S. Carolina
Ole Miss

If Butch is our guy, he should be able to get 1 or 2 of those. There is no reason to expect anything less than 7-5 this season.

The problem becomes (as the 2012-13 teams showed) is when you lose a couple of winnable games how does the team play at the end of the season?

UF and Mizzou will be those +2 wins.

 

[sjt18]

If we were playing cream puffs instead of Oregon and Oklahoma, on the road, mind you, in consecutive seasons, we would win that magical 6th game. Heck, Oregon and Oklahoma would be daunting for Bama.

I want to get back to beating our rivals. Oddly enough, when coach Fulmer was fired, it wasn't for lack of beating Uga or Carolina, for he was 2-1 against each over the last three years of his tenure. He was fired for not beating Bama or Florida under Meyer, but nobody else was either.

I am not prepared to put a number on wins because winning 8 or 9 with vandy's schedule isn't the same as winning 8 or 9 with our schedule. We get Bama every year and a top ten team like ou or Oregon. People get too caught up in the wins without looking at who you play.

IOW's, "yes". You have lowered the bar sufficiently that at least right now you'd be willing to see years of 4 to 7 win seasons and excuse them due to "competition".

Fulmer was fired for several reasons that all culminated in a couple of losing seasons. The roster was in decline because recruits no longer bought what he was selling. Discipline was terrible both on and off the field. He failed to hold friends on his staff accountable (like Sanders). You stay, you play assured that better recruits at least consider PT before choosing between UT and others. The game changed- Fulmer did not. AND... after things began to go south, he smugly declared that "we've won a lot of games around here doing things our way" and refused to change.

If wasn't just UF and Bama. It was whoever happened to be the bride to his bridesmaid. LSU was it for a time. UGA was too. If he was still there then USCe would probably own him now.

 

[sjt18]

If you're Dave Hart sitting with Butch Jones with the schedule in front of you, you take out your orange marker and circle USU, Arky St., UTC, UK, and Vandy as wins. That means Butch needs to win just 1 of the following for UT to be bowl eligible:

Oklahoma
UGA
UF
Bama
Mizzou
S. Carolina
Ole Miss

If Butch is our guy, he should be able to get 1 or 2 of those. There is no reason to expect anything less than 7-5 this season.

The problem becomes (as the 2012-13 teams showed) is when you lose a couple of winnable games how does the team play at the end of the season?

I think we've butted heads a few times... but you nailed this.:good!: