Jackcrevol
Mr Buck Dancer
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Iâve thought about this too and itâs almost Patriots-like. Donât overpay, find guys who fit your culture and can perform a role within your systems, and put them in a position to succeed. Itâs not a shotgun approach of just going out and getting as many top rated players as possibleâŚitâs far more nuanced than that.There are a lot of components to this.
First, the methods of Heupel and crew are starting to come in focus. They don't seem prone to throw scholarships at a bunch of "developmental" HS players. Some. Not many. You set a high bar for who you are willing to sign out of HS. If you get them then you get them and if you don't you don't... then....
Second, save the quan for elite portal guys. Why pay a promising but unproven HS kid when you can sign guys with talent and proven value? That's the "hard" choice to make. The easy part is after you set that bar mentioned above... there is NO good reason to sign a guy below it instead of a proven portal guy.
An offshoot of that idea is that the programs out there "getting" the kids UT has been chasing... don't have unlimited space or NIL resources. When they fill a space with a HS kid, they cannot bid on a portal guy for the same spot.
My last thought is this. They're still rebuilding the roster from the mess they inherited. UT was fortunate that Pruitt happened when he did. The extra Covid year helped. However it top loaded UT's roster with Jrs and Srs. A LOT of guys run out of eligibility after this year. The Vols cannot be competitive if they simply replace all of those guys with HS recruits. They have to find some 3rd and 4th year guys to help balance the classes a little more.
I think they're going about their roster building with a lot of wisdom. We will see how they do in the portal.
why would that not have been the approach from D1?The culture thing is good an all until most of the issue is UT being outbid on most of these guys in the portal or HS recruiting. Weâve had multiple insiders on here say UT has just been outbid for guys then the usual coverup from non insiders is âwell they just donât fit the cultureâ. UT staff just didnât want to go up into bidding wars. Well luckily that approach seems to be changing alittle bit come this offseason. In order to get top flight guys youâre going to have to engage in bidding. No way around it. Good luck building a championship team without being alittle more aggressive. Pick your spots and go all out. Seems like from what LA Vol and AP/Hubbs are saying thatâll be the strategy going forward
There are a lot of components to this.
First, the methods of Heupel and crew are starting to come in focus. They don't seem prone to throw scholarships at a bunch of "developmental" HS players. Some. Not many. You set a high bar for who you are willing to sign out of HS. If you get them then you get them and if you don't you don't... then....
Second, save the quan for elite portal guys. Why pay a promising but unproven HS kid when you can sign guys with talent and proven value? That's the "hard" choice to make. The easy part is after you set that bar mentioned above... there is NO good reason to sign a guy below it instead of a proven portal guy.
An offshoot of that idea is that the programs out there "getting" the kids UT has been chasing... don't have unlimited space or NIL resources. When they fill a space with a HS kid, they cannot bid on a portal guy for the same spot.
My last thought is this. They're still rebuilding the roster from the mess they inherited. UT was fortunate that Pruitt happened when he did. The extra Covid year helped. However it top loaded UT's roster with Jrs and Srs. A LOT of guys run out of eligibility after this year. The Vols cannot be competitive if they simply replace all of those guys with HS recruits. They have to find some 3rd and 4th year guys to help balance the classes a little more.
I think they're going about their roster building with a lot of wisdom. We will see how they do in the portal.
I really hope you are wrong. I live in an area where live auctions are a big part of business. Equipment auctions, real estate auctions, livestock auctions, etc. Only an absolute FOOL goes into an auction without having a pretty good idea of what his top limit is for a particular auction. That becomes even more critical if you don't have clear picture of the true value of the thing you are bidding on.The culture thing is good an all until most of the issue is UT being outbid on most of these guys in the portal or HS recruiting. Weâve had multiple insiders on here say UT has just been outbid for guys then the usual coverup from non insiders is âwell they just donât fit the cultureâ. UT staff just didnât want to go up into bidding wars. Well luckily that approach seems to be changing alittle bit come this offseason. In order to get top flight guys youâre going to have to engage in bidding. No way around it. Good luck building a championship team without being alittle more aggressive. Pick your spots and go all out. Seems like from what LA Vol and AP/Hubbs are saying thatâll be the strategy going forward
Agree but I think some programs have already demonstrated how not to do it. A&M comes to mind. They bought an amazing class a couple of years ago but several of those players have already moved on or look like busts.I wonder if there is a fear of paying the big bucks for the HS guys driven primarily by the money, then having them bolt for other locations through the portal after the development year. Trust is part of the character equation too not just ability. Getting them AND keeping them are now two different things to factor in.
I just believe we AND OTHERS have a defined strategy to meet our biggest needs in the best timeframe possible. Still in the early stages of portal strategy development. Obsessing over losing HS guys is even less rational than ever before. Strategic offers to portal guys to either get your guy, or force the present team of others to burn their NIL and moving down the list is where I think we are headed. Hard to caluclate the TRUE impact of proximity and demonstrated opportunity to the mobile minded stars. It is now more like chess and less like checkers.
Really well thought out post, and I agree with all of it.There are a lot of components to this.
First, the methods of Heupel and crew are starting to come in focus. They don't seem prone to throw scholarships at a bunch of "developmental" HS players. Some. Not many. You set a high bar for who you are willing to sign out of HS. If you get them then you get them and if you don't you don't... then....
Second, save the quan for elite portal guys. Why pay a promising but unproven HS kid when you can sign guys with talent and proven value? That's the "hard" choice to make. The easy part is after you set that bar mentioned above... there is NO good reason to sign a guy below it instead of a proven portal guy.
An offshoot of that idea is that the programs out there "getting" the kids UT has been chasing... don't have unlimited space or NIL resources. When they fill a space with a HS kid, they cannot bid on a portal guy for the same spot.
My last thought is this. They're still rebuilding the roster from the mess they inherited. UT was fortunate that Pruitt happened when he did. The extra Covid year helped. However it top loaded UT's roster with Jrs and Srs. A LOT of guys run out of eligibility after this year. The Vols cannot be competitive if they simply replace all of those guys with HS recruits. They have to find some 3rd and 4th year guys to help balance the classes a little more.
I think they're going about their roster building with a lot of wisdom. We will see how they do in the portal.
Some VN posters:The culture thing is good an all until most of the issue is UT being outbid on most of these guys in the portal or HS recruiting. Weâve had multiple insiders on here say UT has just been outbid for guys then the usual coverup from non insiders is âwell they just donât fit the cultureâ. UT staff just didnât want to go up into bidding wars. Well luckily that approach seems to be changing alittle bit come this offseason. In order to get top flight guys youâre going to have to engage in bidding. No way around it. Good luck building a championship team without being alittle more aggressive. Pick your spots and go all out. Seems like from what LA Vol and AP/Hubbs are saying thatâll be the strategy going forward
People think that UT did poorly on those elite recruits but they really didn't. They didn't go after everyone regardless of rating or being pursued by top programs. They went after guys they want. EVERYONE misses on recruits. You had media and fans trumping up the idea that "UT leads" for this one or that one. That sells subscriptions and gets clicks/views. But it isn't the way a recruitment works. Unless a kid is immediately ready to commit... "leading" means less than nothing. It just means a kid likes a program at the moment but isn't done.Really well thought out post, and I agree with all of it.
As it stands now, I think what we've seen this cycle is that the 2022 season + additional year of relationship building + branding as an NIL spender got us deep into the mix more elite players than ever. We closed on some, we missed on a bunch. And that's yielded a Top 10 class which has more elite level players at the top (IMO, Ross, Matthews, Warren, Staley, Beasley, Merk, Spillman, Boo, Anderson, Lewis, Satterwhite) than we've had in a LONG time, supplemented by a "bottom" of the class that has more quality than we've had in that category in a LONG time as well.
To the point about NIL and other schools, of the group we've missed on, that IMO can be subdivided into 3 distinct buckets:
1) Went to UGA (or Clemson and Bama, in the case of Sammy Brown/Jefferson, respectively) for less money than we would've likely paid them. And there's nothing we can do about that right now. We just have to keep being in as many battles with them as possible, win a larger and larger share each cycle, and we'll all be very happy. That group includes Reddell, Easley, Calhoun, Cole, and Q. Johnson (that's a lot!).
2) Went to lesser schools for more/quicker money: Rushing, Nwaneri, Franklin, Russell, Fountain (I know USC is good)
3) We just got beat by roughly equal programs: Singleton (LSU instate), Cai Bates, A. Williams (ftr, I'm sure I'm missing a few)
So again, we've got a Top 10 class with 20 commitments. The biggest holes remaining IMO - pre portal - are at WR3 and Edge/DL. I love the players we do have at these positions, where we've got 2 elite WRs and then 1 elite Edge paired with a solid if unspectacular group of DL that is low on numbers. We're in position to land another elite WR in Mikell and have recently offered 3 JUCO DL with good size that are all EEs. We also have Nasir Smith on the board, who to me looks like a Dominic Bailey/Jayson Jenkins-type developmental DL that I'm in favor of adding because if they don't hit then they move on but if they do then you've got yourself an SEC DL which are gold. And then of course we're trying to flip guys like A. Williams who's a stud IMO.
As an aside, re: DL: JMO, but that's just as good as a portal DL because they're often plug and play and would be a bird in hand vs. literally having no idea which DL will be in the portal. Obviously taking one doesn't preclude the other.
Allllll that to say , from 30k feet this does appear to be our strategy. Target as many elite players as possible; be judicious about the number of developmental players you add, with a focus on "traits" (e.g., literal giant who plays basketball in J. Heard, multi-sport athletes with known flexibility/athleticism in Gentle/Perry); leave plenty of room for portal additions who are plug and play at areas of need. IMO those look like TE (perhaps 2 needed); OL (multiple needed); WR (elite only); QB (3rd stringer, break only in case of emergency, wants to be a coach); DL (pending JUCO adds, how many guys who can return actually do), and S (elite plug and play only).
I'd add that we should have a LOT of our allotted NIL budget remaining to go big with those portal spots due to missing on guys like Rushing/Nwaneri/Franklin and even Jefferson/Cole/Bates who as far as I can tell we were willing to pay big for.
I think this strategy makes sense both in the near term (i.e., this cycle) but also going forward. If Heup can keep stacking Top 10 classes - especially if the ratio of elite players continues to climb each year - and killing the portal (results mixed so far this cycle, obviously hurt by Pili's injury) we're going to win a lot of games and play in a lot of 12-team playoffs.
Since we're deep-diving into recruiting and talking NIL, one more plug for donating to The Vol Club. It's literally the most impactful thing we as individual fans can to help the Vols win.
Absolutely true. Used car salesmen smile when they see you coming... don't they?Some VN posters:
âBut you canât overpay for recruitsâ
Yes. Throwing money at risks without considering the value is financial mismanagement.âFinancial mismanagementâ
Well, not totally. Who your competition gets definitely matters. But once both sides get who they get... you can only coach up the ones you have. You can't spend time worrying about the guys who said no.âWorry about who we get, not who we donâtâ
Very sensible explanation of the current situation. Most of our fans fail to realize our staff has been playing with 75 scholarships the first 2 yrs.There are a lot of components to this.
First, the methods of Heupel and crew are starting to come in focus. They don't seem prone to throw scholarships at a bunch of "developmental" HS players. Some. Not many. You set a high bar for who you are willing to sign out of HS. If you get them then you get them and if you don't you don't... then....
Second, save the quan for elite portal guys. Why pay a promising but unproven HS kid when you can sign guys with talent and proven value? That's the "hard" choice to make. The easy part is after you set that bar mentioned above... there is NO good reason to sign a guy below it instead of a proven portal guy.
An offshoot of that idea is that the programs out there "getting" the kids UT has been chasing... don't have unlimited space or NIL resources. When they fill a space with a HS kid, they cannot bid on a portal guy for the same spot.
My last thought is this. They're still rebuilding the roster from the mess they inherited. UT was fortunate that Pruitt happened when he did. The extra Covid year helped. However it top loaded UT's roster with Jrs and Srs. A LOT of guys run out of eligibility after this year. The Vols cannot be competitive if they simply replace all of those guys with HS recruits. They have to find some 3rd and 4th year guys to help balance the classes a little more.
I think they're going about their roster building with a lot of wisdom. We will see how they do in the portal.
We've disagreed often but that is absolutely true. I don't think that ever bought him a day of slack... but I think some are pretty over the top considering what he's done in such a short period of time.Most of our fans also will not realize that Heupel walked into the worst situation at TN that ANY coach ever has here and itâs not close.
Heup gets his first full class in 2028. But down only 2 per class, finally, going forward until then. There was no reason but the haters among our rivals (using the NCAA as their front) not to have accepted what we had already self-imposed.Very sensible explanation of the current situation. Most of our fans fail to realize our staff has been playing with 75 scholarships the first 2 yrs.
Dickey did not get a roster full either, especially going from single wing to T. Signing 8-10 QB each year helped with the turnaround. Played them all over the field.We've disagreed often but that is absolutely true. I don't think that ever bought him a day of slack... but I think some are pretty over the top considering what he's done in such a short period of time.
Fulmer didn't leave Kiffin in good shape. Kiffin left Dooley in pretty rough shape. Dooley actually left Jones with a decent first team on both sides of the ball. Jones just couldn't coach worth a dime. Jones left Pruitt in marginally good shape except QB. But what Pruitt and the new portal rule did to Heupel should be illegal. He should have gotten extra scholarships... not reduced.
Jones technically left Pruitt in great shape at QB but Pruitt's dumb butt told Penix he didn't have a spot at UT.We've disagreed often but that is absolutely true. I don't think that ever bought him a day of slack... but I think some are pretty over the top considering what he's done in such a short period of time.
Fulmer didn't leave Kiffin in good shape. Kiffin left Dooley in pretty rough shape. Dooley actually left Jones with a decent first team on both sides of the ball. Jones just couldn't coach worth a dime. Jones left Pruitt in marginally good shape except QB. But what Pruitt and the new portal rule did to Heupel should be illegal. He should have gotten extra scholarships... not reduced.
Had to click âsee ignored postsâ to see this.Absolutely true. Used car salesmen smile when they see you coming... don't they?
Yes. Throwing money at risks without considering the value is financial mismanagement.
I think you got defensive once before about this. You're still wrong.
Well, not totally. Who your competition gets definitely matters. But once both sides get who they get... you can only coach up the ones you have. You can't spend time worrying about the guys who said no.
Well, with that ridiculous response... you shouldn't have clicked. you are wrong. Badly wrong. Stupidly wrong. I don't know if you really cannot understand or if you're being intentionally obtuse.Had to click âsee ignored postsâ to see this.
âOverpayingâ assumes there is a standard value for certain positions, or that we know exactly what the coaches have to work with. Both are untrue. Fact is if the right player comes up, who can truly make an impact on the field as one of the only 11 that get on it, and can further the trajectory of your program, that player is probably worth âoverpayingâ for so long as you are a good enough coach to develop your backups, because the amount of players like that in each class is very few and far between. Enough of those players and you become pretty hard to compete against. Most of us would agree most players cannot contribute from day one. Those who can, are worth pursuing to the extent you need to. I guess the judgement of who fits that bill is whatâs up for question, and only time and the right circumstances/coaching will tell. If youâre not a good coach, you get Butch Jones. If you donât pay to play, youâre not serious about competing for championships. If the issue is not enough money to go around, go get it. The programs that spend the money on recruiting will have a better chance of putting an elite product on the field. The âused car salesmanâ statement is completely unnecessary, inflammatory, and part of the reason I ignored you. I donât really see how you can compare the used car market to trying to build the best football program in America, but I also donât really care. Like I said, unnecessary and inflammatory.
Absolutely nobody has said to throw money at risks without considering value. That is a gross statement and misinterpretation of what I and others have said in the past. If thatâs what you want to derive from someone saying âback up the brink truckâ or âdo whatever you can to get this guyâ, I wouldnât take that explicitly to mean that because they have no idea of what is actually possible. Itâs merely an expression of their desire for a seemingly sought after and impressive looking prospect to their untrained eye. However from your tone specifically, I assume you have the capacity to not take everything exactly the way it may read, and are just aiming at discrediting or baiting me and others. Whatever, troll.
Would agree with that. But if you donât get the right guys, itâs absolutely worth reflecting on why you didnât. Unless you want a bunch of Ollie lanes on your roster and then by all means you do you.
Iâve inquired in the past as to why you are so argumentative as opposed to generally collaborative. Maybe you just donât like statements made with conviction. Maybe youâre just a negative person. Maybe you believe being the devils advocate all the time gives people a higher opinion of you (it doesnât). Maybe youâre bringing too much of your struggles elsewhere into your interactions with others you donât know as way of blowing off steam (as you previously suggested), good luck with that. Too much and thatâs why youâre on my ignore list.
You can respond, as Iâm sure you will. Just know I wonât be reading/responding to it because âquite frankly my dear, I donât give a damn.â