Game Thread: Lady Vols Vs LSU; Thurs Jan 9th ; Home game; 6:30 PM Eastern; SEC+ stream

[RespectAPA]

Half an nba season is more games than Tennessee will play this entire year. Hence the meaningless part for college basketball. It’s just way too small of a small size especially when people start nitpicking the games

What this blogger said isn't gospel, though. One thing that humans are bad at is statistics, and understanding how quickly sample size becomes sufficient to nail down our error margins. And I'm fairly confident that it's just as true here. Could Spear buck the trend and overperform down the stretch? Probably. But that could still mean only going positiv in 4 SEC games all season.

5 games vs P5 competition is a lot of time. I think it's over 800 combined possessions. Spear has played in 130 minutes of those 5 games, and the Lady Vols are -42 in that stretch of time, which is more than enough of a sample to start to get our error bars squeezed in. And in the 70 minutes that she's been on the bench — literally almost half of that Spear's time in — the Lady Vols are +63. That's on pace for +117 if you normalized it to the 130 minute sample that Spear has.

I don't like the conclusion here more than anyone else. It means that one of the players who gets the most minutes of the team consistently holds us back. There has to be a solution, and hopefully coach can figure it out — but the first step to a solution is identifying that there is a problem. I don't know that anyone even realizes that Spear is a problem; we know that players like Puckett, Spearman, Boyd hav issues that hold them back from getting high levels of minutes. But I think Spear being so massively negative in +/- would be a shock to most people -- it caught me off guard. I hadn't even noticed that she was so consistently negative until I went to check through previous games. And in games against mid-majors and low D1 schools, she isn't very far behind. But aside from the MTSU game, in our 8 games against solid competition, there hasn't been a single game where Tennessee had a better differential in her minutes than without her.

 

[RespectAPA]

Coming into the game today, Spear ranked:

- 4th on the team in win shares
- 3rd on win shares per 40 mins
- 3rd in box plus minus

So yeah sorry I don’t care about simple plus minus stars cherry-picked from 5 games

Thank you. I'll look into it to see if I can make some sense in it!

Where are you getting these numbers from, though? [and also, it will be interesting to see how much she drops in these stats after the LSU game is put in]

[I also think that box plus minus per minute is more meaningful than a volume stat +/-. She's going to be high in that because she played a lot of blowout minutes against lesser competition; these consistently negative performances against SEC teams will continue to drop in the volume stat very quickly; just tonight might be enough to put her behind Hollingshead or Latham, who both had very positive nights]

 

[Good2bavol]

Wow, I have read a lot of negativity on this thread.

NEWS FLASH: Pat Summit is dead. There will never be another one. Unless you want to man up and coach and recruit and suffer the knives that are thrown here, then shut the f*** up and support what we have. There are at least 100 teams that wished they have what we have.

 

[vol94]

Really? Smdh…

So they have been competing for championships? My comment isn’t a slap in the face for the current roster or coaching staff. I could have used better wording so my bad. But 20 yrs ago I would’ve never thought Lady Vols would barely make the dance as we expected final fours under Pat.

Hope that makes sense. I love our coach and I said earlier, I truly think this team will be final four bound within two years. Plus, they will Stay nationally relevant with final four appearances w/ expectations to win the natty.

 

[Moar Steam]

Possibly, I guess. Idk enough about women’s basketball this yr. I assume USCjr, LSU, UCONN, Duke, and a couple other SEC schools are the probable contenders.

I never thought I’d see the day when Lady Vols would be irrelevant. Pat would’ve been livid losing two consecutive games, let alone at home. But, it’s where we are so embrace the new coach and let her do her thing.

 

[Volinnooga]

Some of y’all remind me Bama football fans who could not ever get over the fact that Bear wasn’t coaching anymore. Pat has been gone for a number of years— no doubt she was great, but let go. She isn’t coming back. i like where we are headed.

 

[chuckiepoo]

Unless you want to man up and coach and recruit and suffer the knives that are thrown here, then shut the f*** up and support what we have.

If only it were that easy.

Are you not aware that anything less than a Championship is beneath my particular brand of fandom?

 

[Orange007]

cooper looks pissed as hell and i love that she is. that's how any competitor would be after losing. she's also young.

 

[th2421]

Thank you. I'll look into it to see if I can make some sense in it!

Where are you getting these numbers from, though? [and also, it will be interesting to see how much she drops in these stats after the LSU game is put in]

[I also think that box plus minus per minute is more meaningful than a volume stat +/-. She's going to be high in that because she played a lot of blowout minutes against lesser competition; these consistently negative performances against SEC teams will continue to drop in the volume stat very quickly; just tonight might be enough to put her behind Hollingshead or Latham, who both had very positive nights]

After the LSU game, per Her Hoops Stats, Spear is:
- 4th in player efficiency rating (3rd if you don't count Edie's limited minutes)
- 3rd in win shares
- 3rd in offensive win shares
- 8th in defensive win shares
- 3rd in offensive rating (2nd again if you don't count Edie)
- dead last in defensive rating (13th but who's counting?)

Over at Bart Torvik, Spear is 1st on the team in points above replacement player (their primary overall player ranking).

 

[chuckiepoo]

After the LSU game, per Her Hoops Stats, Spear is:
- 4th in player efficiency rating (3rd if you don't count Edie's limited minutes)
- 3rd in win shares
- 3rd in offensive win shares
- 8th in defensive win shares
- 3rd in offensive rating (2nd again if you don't count Edie)
- dead last in defensive rating (13th but who's counting?)

Over at Bart Torvik, Spear is 1st on the team in points above replacement player (their primary overall player ranking).

 

[RespectAPA]

After the LSU game, per Her Hoops Stats, Spear is:
- 4th in player efficiency rating (3rd if you don't count Edie's limited minutes)
- 3rd in win shares
- 3rd in offensive win shares
- 8th in defensive win shares
- 3rd in offensive rating (2nd again if you don't count Edie)
- dead last in defensive rating (13th but who's counting?)

Over at Bart Torvik, Spear is 1st on the team in points above replacement player (their primary overall player ranking).

Are win shares a volume stat or a rate stat? She leads the team in minutes/game, so she's going to have an advantage in any volume stat, which may be why she's 8th in defensiv win shares but dead last in defensiv rating?

I guess dead last in defensive rating is not a surprise. Like I said in one post here, being a defensiv liability likely plays the primary role in her plusminus being 105 points below than her points scored in SEC play so far. Besides failing to get offensiv rebounds (1 per 27 minutes; only Destinee Wells has a lower rate) it seems not too likely that too much of the 105 point discrepancy would be on the offensiv side of the ball.

 

[newladyvolfan]

several teach able moments …

1. should have fouled twice
2. Whitehorn open up too much. Gave up a direct line and stayed on Gilbert’s hip instead of getting in front to force a turn
3. Spear should have stunted or jab or to slow dow Gilbert but she was flat footed and barely stuck out her hand.
4. Cooper wasn’t engaged/ hands on knees and helped way to late… and should have have helped before the charge circle and Spear could defend the dump pass and give up a 3 to Johnson… LSU only shot 1/8 on the 3.
5. coaching mistake … probably should have put Coop on the ball instead of whitehorn because of length and quicker hands.


as you can see LSU was aggressive getting down hill compared to our decision against Oklahoma and not being aggressive.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

I, too, am a competitor, but this is silly. It's one thing to say you "hate losing" and another to get all pissy and defeatist in the middle of the damn season after losing to two top ten teams on last second shots. A true winner realizes this is the early part of January and there are more games to play and win, which is what we intend to do.

You want to get all mopey and say this is a middle of the road team, give up, then fine. But, don't pretend you're some kind of winner. That's simply quitting and I used to eat pouty chumps like this for lunch back when I had the tools to do so.

I’m not to keep this going, but I’m not as high on those teams as u are. u can respond the way u want with loses and I’ll do it my way, we are different people.

 

[DarkPhoenix]

You’re a child who defaults to nonsensical arguments because your depth of knowledge ends at the surface.

A child is someone who calls someone names when people don’t agree with them, but no need for u to respond anymore, thanks.

 

[Lucy]

I’m not sure it was intentional but I think the officials got it as close to an evenly called game as I’ve seen give or take a call here and there for both teams.
I believe UT is gaining respect from the officials when they put their head down and drive to the basket.
All the guards tonight were good at least at driving through the lane and making LSU defend.
We just must get better at finishing through contact.
Multiple missed layups around were the difference in the final score.
It’s coming full circle and magnifying the reason that Coach Caldwell is never satisfied.
Those empty possessions are literally the difference between two losses and in a perfect record with a Top 5-10 ranking.

.. sorry nodded off and hit reply

 

[chuckiepoo]

For further reading:

What We Talk About When We Talk About Basketball Statistics: A Glossary

an attempted survey of the nerd landscape

statsbywill.substack.com

 

[madtownvol]

What this blogger said isn't gospel, though. One thing that humans are bad at is statistics, and understanding how quickly sample size becomes sufficient to nail down our error margins. And I'm fairly confident that it's just as true here. Could Spear buck the trend and overperform down the stretch? Probably. But that could still mean only going positiv in 4 SEC games all season.

5 games vs P5 competition is a lot of time. I think it's over 800 combined possessions. Spear has played in 130 minutes of those 5 games, and the Lady Vols are -42 in that stretch of time, which is more than enough of a sample to start to get our error bars squeezed in. And in the 70 minutes that she's been on the bench — literally almost half of that Spear's time in — the Lady Vols are +63. That's on pace for +117 if you normalized it to the 130 minute sample that Spear has.

I don't like the conclusion here more than anyone else. It means that one of the players who gets the most minutes of the team consistently holds us back. There has to be a solution, and hopefully coach can figure it out — but the first step to a solution is identifying that there is a problem. I don't know that anyone even realizes that Spear is a problem; we know that players like Puckett, Spearman, Boyd hav issues that hold them back from getting high levels of minutes. But I think Spear being so massively negative in +/- would be a shock to most people -- it caught me off guard. I hadn't even noticed that she was so consistently negative until I went to check through previous games. And in games against mid-majors and low D1 schools, she isn't very far behind. But aside from the MTSU game, in our 8 games against solid competition, there hasn't been a single game where Tennessee had a better differential in her minutes than without her.

So, Jewell has been coming off an injury and had a slow start. So there is an intervening variable skewing these numbers. Heslthy Jewel has been a monster in the last 2 games. Are these games statistical anomalies or something closer to her healthy baseline? We shall soon see.

 

[ShortyMac10]

Respect

 

[madtownvol]

Honestly, if you just step back and view this game from a neutral view, it was a heck of a game. It really was more of a “if one plays go differently” game than OK. On the frustrating side, the LVs kept making execution errors that allowed LSU to stay in control of the game but the LVs never quit and kept battling up the hill. In the end, LSU made a tough clutch shot and the LVs did not, (it w a circus shot bit no matter it went in), But make no mistake, LSU is an elite team and the LVs were right there.

Yes, they need to start winning against the top teams but this game should be a confidence booster,

And three cheers for Jillian! She helped to stop the bleeding in the paint with a great defensive effort,

 

[Unimane]

I’m not to keep this going, but I’m not as high on those teams as u are. u can respond the way u want with loses and I’ll do it my way, we are different people.

Doesn't matter. You're ready to bury them to the middle of the pack. I'm looking to win the next game. This is a March sport and it's littered with teams who struggled in January (or February) only to get it together at the right time.

 

[Texas]

I held my tongue on the last game. But won’t this time. Puckett is too slow, and slower than she seemed in prior years. I think she may have a bit of a back issue and some associated hamstring tightness. She looks stiff while playing. When she runs her hamstring tone looks to keep her from allowing her knees to extend fully straighten.

Latham should get about 2/3 of her minutes.

 

[papatomany]

Sorry to bring this up again, but what in the world are you people watching. Coach Caldwell has coached 15 games at Tennessee and her only two losses came down to last second shots against top 10 teams. Got beat on the boards by the second and third best rebounding teams in the country (by differential); gave up too many layups last game and too many breakouts in this one; didn't force nearly enough turnovers to max out this system... and STILL came down to last second shots. Yeah, plenty for Kim and the girls to clean up; but how does this not look like the beginning of a fantastically prosperous era to you?

 

[OllVol]

I’m pretty sure this isn’t allowed.
Possible ban incoming.

View attachment 712576

Looks like he's wearing one of Mulkey's outfits.

 

[feathersax]

Sorry to bring this up again, but what in the world are you people watching. Coach Caldwell has coached 15 games at Tennessee and her only two losses came down to last second shots against top 10 teams. Got beat on the boards by the second and third best rebounding teams in the country (by differential); gave up too many layups last game and too many breakouts in this one; didn't force nearly enough turnovers to max out this system... and STILL came down to last second shots. Yeah, plenty for Kim and the girls to clean up; but how does this not look like the beginning of a fantastically prosperous era to you?

In the past ten seasons the LV team would have never come back from big deficits like they did against OK & LSU. Short-term memory can be a blessing (if you use it). Really thought they were going to pull it out against a big team. One more thing: did Mulkey find that "skirt" at a yard sale? Ewwwww.

 

[BruisedOrange]

Disappointing finish to wake up to. Y'all did a good job getting them back in the game!

I appreciate all of y'all who posted thoughtful analysis and discussion of the stats and what can or cannot be derived from them. You truly are the added value in this forum.

Look forward to further input on those topics. Basketball stats just aren't as "pure" as baseball stats, but that's the magic of team sports.