Game Thread: Lady Vols Vs LSU; Thurs Jan 9th ; Home game; 6:30 PM Eastern; SEC+ stream

[1morevol]

Disappointing finish to wake up to. Y'all did a good job getting them back in the game!

I appreciate all of y'all who posted thoughtful analysis and discussion of the stats and what can or cannot be derived from them. You truly are the added value in this forum.

Look forward to further input on those topics. Basketball stats just aren't as "pure" as baseball stats, but that's the magic of team sports.

I am encouraged by the fact we played the number 6 team in the country to a 2 pt loss in spite of not having our usual turnover margin and losing the rebound stat. The 11 threes to their 1 kept us in it.

 

[BruisedOrange]

And a weather report for those in east Tennessee. On radar, it's been snowing here in middle Tennessee for nearly 4 hours--but we're only just now seeing flakes, and maybe a quarter inch on the ground!

I'm guessing the air must be so dry that the snow has been evaporating before it gets to us. Very disappointing!

Dang! Does this mean I may have to go to school today?!!!
(I still hate that feeling... and I'm 70!)

 

[VolBall09]

I am encouraged by the fact we played the number 6 team in the country to a 2 pt loss in spite of not having our usual turnover margin and losing the rebound stat. The 11 threes to their 1 kept us in it.

I’m on the same boat as Kim. We are 3 points away from being a top 5 team. That’s not a good thing. We had a huge opportunity this week and it was squandered because we won’t play 4 quarters of basketball. Period. Moral victories are still losses and don’t get the program anywhere. I’m encouraged we have a hard nosed coach who understands that.

The future is bright but the present is all too familiar right now.

 

[stlvolsfan]

Love the fight in this team. However, like CKC said there are no moral victories and she wants to win now. We squandered a great opportunity this week, but the difference between now and the last 7ish years is I believe CKC is going to make the changes needed so we are ready for tournament time. On another note, I never thought I’d say this a few years ago but we really needed Tess tonight. She stretches the floor and seems to be a calming force within the team. Hopefully her ankle is better for Arkansas. We are better when she is in the mix.

 

[stlvolsfan]

I think Sara’s role needs to be reduced. She’s not scoring and she has been a liability on defense. I’m not trying to pile on and she seems like such a great kid, but I’d rather see her minutes split between Latham and Darby. Maybe she’s lost her confidence?

 

[glv98]

In the past ten seasons the LV team would have never come back from big deficits like they did against OK & LSU. Short-term memory can be a blessing (if you use it). Really thought they were going to pull it out against a big team. One more thing: did Mulkey find that "skirt" at a yard sale? Ewwwww.

Speaking of short term memory, you forgot just last spring when the LVs made an epic comeback against the undefeated eventual national champions only to fall short on a last second prayer by the other team. Exactly like last night. In fact, getting behind early and coming back, sometimes successfully sometimes not, was a hallmark of last years team. Not necessary to rewrite history to praise this team.

 

[1morevol]

I’m on the same boat as Kim. We are 3 points away from being a top 5 team. That’s not a good thing. We had a huge opportunity this week and it was squandered because we won’t play 4 quarters of basketball. Period. Moral victories are still losses and don’t get the program anywhere. I’m encouraged we have a hard nosed coach who understands that.

The future is bright but the present is all too familiar right now.

I didn't think of it as a moral victory. Just pointing out how close we were in spite of losing the rebounding battle and not turning LSU over significantly. Pretty obvious we are going to have to improve in those areas, and others, if we expect to get where want to go. Improving our play in the first quarter would be a good start.

 

[glv98]

All this talk about Jewel’s plus minus is why I hate when analytics overtake common sense in sports. Bottom line is that outside of Jewel, this is a very poor 3 pt shooting team in a system that depends on the 3 ball. Without her, the last two games would have been double digit losses. Yes she’s a midish defender at best. But sometimes coaching is about intuition and situation, not numbers plugged into a computer.

 

[brittannica]

We are lucky to have Jewel. It's notable that in the post game press conference Kim called out Talaysia's defensive effort in the first quarter but had a little negative to say about Jewel. Seemingly, Jewel is doing exactly what she is supposed to do in the system. She was never going to be our strongest defender, but her three-point shooting is unparalleled on this team. Only Sam and Tess come close.

 

[glv98]

Capt Obvs checking in here, our half court D is awful. Unlike CKC who works her Bad Chipmunk persona to the nth degree, I don’t think it’s bc of lack of effort or not carrying out game plan. Why would players bust ass so completely in the back court press only to get into front court and quit?

IMO it’s exactly bc of the backcourt effort that they’re giving up so many easy mid range shots and layups. BC of overplay in backcourt, they,re never in position and almost always scrambling in the frontcourt. We always knew that would be a problem against better teams and it’s on coaching to figure out when to dial it back and how to adjust.

Also, we need better teaching on when and how to help and rotate on defense in this system when they are able to be set up properly in the half court. This is also on coaching.

Also, on rebounding we’re undersized, which we knew and said fm the beginning. This isn’t lack of effort, it’s a bug of the system.

I get the total hardassery CKC is trying to sell. But her presser had a bit of throwing players under the bus to me.

 

[glv98]

On a more positive note, our half court offense is looking pretty sharp. We have several very talented offensive players. When someone consistently hits 3s like Jewel is right now it is a very potent O.

So happy for Jill, may this type play continue

 

[VolBall09]

All this talk about Jewel’s plus minus is why I hate when analytics overtake common sense in sports. Bottom line is that outside of Jewel, this is a very poor 3 pt shooting team in a system that depends on the 3 ball. Without her, the last two games would have been double digit losses. Yes she’s a midish defender at best. But sometimes coaching is about intuition and situation, not numbers plugged into a computer.

Yeah she has to be on the floor or we’re too easy to defend. +\- has always been a defensive stat and that just isn’t where she makes us better. Saying she shouldn’t be on the floor is nuts though.

Sarah often has a good +/- it it’s obvious to the eye she kills momentum in the game. Other team might not score as much but we don’t score at sll when she’s getting too many touches.

 

[volfan102455]

Speaking of short term memory, you forgot just last spring when the LVs made an epic comeback against the undefeated eventual national champions only to fall short on a last second prayer by the other team. Exactly like last night. In fact, getting behind early and coming back, sometimes successfully sometimes not, was a hallmark of last years team. Not necessary to rewrite history to praise this team.

This is true - we need to turn the corner and win these games.

 

[glv98]

This is true - we need to turn the corner and win these games.

For sure. It’s the mountain Kellie came so painfully close to and could never quite climb. You can feel it coming though.

 

[volfan102455]

To add to my last comments - the top 10 teams, like LSU and OU, find a way to win the games like this. We haven't turned that corner yet. I'm hoping we do this season but if we don't we'll end up with 9 to 10 losses before the season ends.

We should have won one of these two.

 

[volfan102455]

And I realize this is the style that CKC plays, but at some point you have to consider the need to slow down and take high percentage shots when the others are not falling in the basket. That is what the best teams do - if something isn't working - they back up, find the basket a few times and then move forward.

That 20 -0 run after an 0-20 run may not always come - just ask the men what happened at Florida.

 

[mudcat1973]

Linkie?

Link was good last first quarter.
I have seen unconn and others live first I have seen Tennessee Lady volunteers live.
Hats off to posters because middle third quarter I switched channels kept watching on YouTube.

 

[volforlife15]

Thank you. I'll look into it to see if I can make some sense in it!

Where are you getting these numbers from, though? [and also, it will be interesting to see how much she drops in these stats after the LSU game is put in]

[I also think that box plus minus per minute is more meaningful than a volume stat +/-. She's going to be high in that because she played a lot of blowout minutes against lesser competition; these consistently negative performances against SEC teams will continue to drop in the volume stat very quickly; just tonight might be enough to put her behind Hollingshead or Latham, who both had very positive nights]

Including last nights game she now ranks:

- 3rd on the team in win shares
- 3rd on the team in win shares/40
- 2nd on the team in box plus minus
- highest win shares and win shares per 40 just in conference games

So again you can keep citing +/- all you want but your assessment of Spear’s value is completely wrong

 

[glv98]

To add to my last comments - the top 10 teams, like LSU and OU, find a way to win the games like this. We haven't turned that corner yet. I'm hoping we do this season but if we don't we'll end up with 9 to 10 losses before the season ends.

We should have won one of these two.

I don’t think 9 or 10 losses. I think about 5 or 6.

 

[orangemadam]

And I realize this is the style that CKC plays, but at some point you have to consider the need to slow down and take high percentage shots when the others are not falling in the basket. That is what the best teams do - if something isn't working - they back up, find the basket a few times and then move forward.

That 20 -0 run after an 0-20 run may not always come - just ask the men what happened at Florida.

Totally different way of losing between the men and the women teams.

I am certainly no coach but we have got to find a way to get a player back
after a made basket and prevent so many layups. I like the pressure defense but
it is leading up to a whole lot of easy baskets (I know some are offset by to's)

 

[VolBall09]

And I realize this is the style that CKC plays, but at some point you have to consider the need to slow down and take high percentage shots when the others are not falling in the basket. That is what the best teams do - if something isn't working - they back up, find the basket a few times and then move forward.

That 20 -0 run after an 0-20 run may not always come - just ask the men what happened at Florida.

To me it’s not about offense at all. We don’t need to change the pace we play with. That’s what works for us. We HAVE to change the way we defend after the press is broken. It can’t just be a layup drill for teams if they get over the press.

 

[orangemadam]

did you just copy my post??

JK

 

[glv98]

To me it’s not about offense at all. We don’t need to change the pace we play with. That’s what works for us. We HAVE to change the way we defend after the press is broken. It can’t just be a layup drill for teams if they get over the press.

We always knew this would be the dilemma against better teams. Can you actually press this aggressively AND successfully defend when it’s broken?

Maybe you don’t; you just count on the extra possession/ extra shot attempt formula to outscore them. And that’s come darn close to working the last two games.

Big danger is this rarely works in March w tired legs and pressure packed situations

 

[KTrain]

I am encouraged by the fact we played the number 6 team in the country to a 2 pt loss in spite of not having our usual turnover margin and losing the rebound stat. The 11 threes to their 1 kept us in it.

Yep, the 11 three's kept us in it. Was great to see Kaniya Boyd knock down some in pressure packed situations. I just wonder if Tess had played would she added a couple of 3s that could of been the difference. I thought LSU had some fortunate bounces on the rims, that may be due to a soft shooting touch by Morrow & Gilbert, I thought that last shot was just a put it up and hope, it didn't seem to be a regular drive a spin and her back was to the basket and she lofted it over her head, credit for at least putting it up and making a hard shot. It seemed like they were getting a lot of them IMO and tagged with a lot of snowbird bunnies.
Hope we can bring a road win vs Arky and go onward and upward from there.

 

[Volfan2012]

And without Spear we wouldn’t be in the last two games but would have lost by 16+ both games.

Same could be said for LSU without Morrow as she carred their rebounding 21 total and 23 points most of it when we stood around and watched her play in the first 15 minutes of the game. The point is you can take a key player away from any team and it changes their season and any game they play.