Georgia vs Alabama

[95 Vol Alum]

When respected money comes in heavy on one side or the other. And respected money basically means gambling consortiums who have a history of winning. Basically its Vegas admitting their power ratings for the teams might not be entirely accurate. Some of the time it's also based on insider information leaking early to someone. If a group knows a certain player might miss a game before Vegas does then you'll see Vegas move the line before official word comes out cause they see a respected better coming in heavy of that rumor.

Remember none of this is a science. If you follow Vegas closely you'll see lines move big time in one direction only for the opposite to happen thus making the "sharps" (aka guys who have a history of winning) and Vegas look dumb. It's just that over a large enough sample size Vegas and the sharps win which is why they continue to do what they do.

I think you’ve successfully argued your way out of playing any games. Just recruit and let Vegas declare who the winner is. Good job.

 

[Hunter10139]

I think you’ve successfully argued your way out of playing any games. Just recruit and let Vegas declare who the winner is. Good job.

Yeah he's just arguing against the whole idea of sports. The best teams don't always win championships. That's what makes sports interesting and not statistics.

 

[joevol33]

You on the couch tonight?

I would be if I wasn't at work . I got her worked up though, kept sending her that crying face, and asking "you okay boo?" She kept telling me to shut up.

 

[Delmar]

They were trailing Bama going into the 4th quarter. Bama had a critical turnover that led to Texas scoring again quickly to go from 16-13 Bama to 27-16 Texas in about 2 minutes. The game was much closer than 10 points.

If a frog had wings…..Did they or did they not beat Bama on their home field by double digits. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

 

[DeepSpringsVol]

Alabama had more points at halftime than Florida State, Louisville, Michigan and Iowa combined. Let that sink in.

 

[Volfan8282]

If a frog had wings…..Did they or did they not beat Bama on their home field by double digits. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

Yeah I’m just saying that they didn’t “beat them badly” which is what you said.

 

[hog88]

This is the CFPC mission statement:

• The selection committee’s task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to sites.

Think they will live up to it?

 

[Delmar]

Not opinions based on feelings. Opinions based on logic and reason. Like the one that tells anyone with sense that Michigan would have fared better than TCU last year against Georgia despite losing to TCU head to head. Michigan recruits better than TCU and has a track record of being more competitive against elite programs like Georgia and Ohio State than a team like TCU which is filled with 3 star recruits.

Logic and reason should supercede fluke one game results.

It’s not a fluke when anybody goes into Tuscaloosa and beats Bama by double digits. It’s because they were better that day. And unless they play again, that is all that counts. Head to head. For me, everything else is opinion and that’s like elbows and butts. Everybody got one.

 

[Remy]

Smart and his "vaunted" OC Bobo after reviewing game video will realize the dumb axx play called in the shadow of their end zone where they tried a little razzle dazzle play and turned the ball over to the Tide really hurt. The UGA defense rallied and held them to 3 points ... ... ... which was the difference in the game. UGA's running game vanished in the second half as well. From what I could see Bama did put the better team on the field tonight and deserved to win as I throw up in my mouth a little bit.

 

[hog88]

It’s not a fluke when anybody goes into Tuscaloosa and beats Bama by double digits. It’s because they were better that day. And unless they play again, that is all that counts. Head to head. For me, everything else is opinion and that’s like elbows and butts. Everybody got one.

Buuuut what happened in week 2 of the season shouldn’t be considered by the committee, per their own guidelines.

 

[Proud Army Wife]

I would be if I wasn't at work . I got her worked up though, kept sending her that crying face, and asking "you okay boo?" She kept telling me to shut up.

Oh yeah she’s not talking to you when you get home lmao

 

[AthensVol2007]

Yeah I’m just saying that they didn’t “beat them badly” which is what you said.

And TX was up 13-3 before that middle stretch so one could argue it was every bit a 10pt game.

 

[Delmar]

Buuuut what happened in week 2 of the season shouldn’t be considered by the committee, per their own guidelines.

I thought head to head was one of the components. Did I miss that?

 

[DirtyDawg]

Oh yeah she’s not talking to you when you get home lmao

Oh she may be talkin, but no tellin what she be sayin! I’m pissed about the game, but we had plenty of opportunities and didn’t get it done. We got screwed on the long 4th early but that’s football. **** happens. Bama did what they needed to and we didn’t.

 

[GVol1966]

Georgia!

Time to put the Bama dynasty to rest.

View attachment 597881

 

[hog88]

I thought head to head was one of the components. Did I miss that?

Here is their mission statement.

• The selection committee’s task will be to select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and then assign the teams to sites.

At this very moment who would you say are the 4 best teams in the nation?

 

[Remy]

When respected money comes in heavy on one side or the other. And respected money basically means gambling consortiums who have a history of winning. Basically its Vegas admitting their power ratings for the teams might not be entirely accurate. Some of the time it's also based on insider information leaking early to someone. If a group knows a certain player might miss a game before Vegas does then you'll see Vegas move the line before official word comes out cause they see a respected better coming in heavy of that rumor.

Remember none of this is a science. If you follow Vegas closely you'll see lines move big time in one direction only for the opposite to happen thus making the "sharps" (aka guys who have a history of winning) and Vegas look dumb. It's just that over a large enough sample size Vegas and the sharps win which is why they continue to do what they do.

The whales, heavy hitters, and large scale bettors do not lay their money down until game day. Also those type bettors are allowed to buy points one way or the other as well those of us in the great unwashed are not offered. That's where and when you see lines really move when one of the pros pays for points and bets an oodle of cash beyond what they normally lay out.

 

[Delmar]

Here is their mission statement.



At this very moment who would you say are the 4 best teams in the nation?

I’m not totally sure. If the absolute best version of each team shows up, it’s probably MI, TX, Bama and GA. But nobody can guarantee that. I saw Bama against Auburn and GA against Tech and Bama the last two weeks and their performances weren’t pretty.

Louisville may be about to bail the committee out though.

 

[Proud Army Wife]

Oh she may be talkin, but no tellin what she be sayin! I’m pissed about the game, but we had plenty of opportunities and didn’t get it done. We got screwed on the long 4th early but that’s football. **** happens. Bama did what they needed to and we didn’t.

I only caught the first half of the game, but after the first possession I thought y’all had it in the bag. I’m not shocked by the Bama win. It’s Saban. Maybe he’ll get this last natty and retire lol.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

I think you’ve successfully argued your way out of playing any games. Just recruit and let Vegas declare who the winner is. Good job.

No. The games should be played. But we should use our logical and reasoning skills to put those limited sample sizes in context. Especially if the goal is to find the best team rather than going on circumstances. Because I've watched all these teams play I can say with confidence that Alabama is better. And the wild thing is you know that too. You know good and well if Alabama and Texas played again Alabama would most likely win. If you know Alabama is better why give Texas the spot?

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

We will see a rematch again in the national title game

What kind of utter delusion is this?

 

[volfan102455]

Here is their mission statement.



At this very moment who would you say are the 4 best teams in the nation?

Define "BEST". That is the issue, the definition of BEST has to have clear criteria. What is it?

- Percentage of wins against power 5 schools?
- Play within their conference?
- Play outside their conference?
- Head-to-head matchups if they exist?
- Offensive strength?
- Defensive strength?
- Best QB?
- Strength of schedule, which can also be subjective unless you have some way to effectively weight competition. Do you do that with the polls, outcomes or what?
- Ability to sell tickets?
- Ability to draw a television crowd?

The "BEST" teams typically will WIN their conference which is why so much is made of this weekend every year.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

It’s not a fluke when anybody goes into Tuscaloosa and beats Bama by double digits. It’s because they were better that day. And unless they play again, that is all that counts. Head to head. For me, everything else is opinion and that’s like elbows and butts. Everybody got one.

Its fluke cause it's a small sample size. I like head to head as well. I'm just not gonna put a lot of stock in any one single game. The reason Alabama will always get the benefit of the doubt from me is their track record that goes back for multiple years. Same with Georgia.

Texas played better than Alabama earlier this year. That doesn't make them better. You know good and well if they played again Alabama could easily win by 30 points.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

Your opinion (and that’s all it is) would be valid IF Bama had taken care of business against Texas. They didn’t. Texas beat them badly at Tuscaloosa and like the commentator on CBS said just now, I don’t care when it happened. It happened and you can’t ignore it. As stated earlier, I guarantee you the committee is pulling hard for Louisville so they can put Texas and Bama in.

Alabama and Georgia are two of the best teams. Most deserving is not in the committee lexicon. Michigan is the obvious number one. So that leaves Texas and FSU arguing over the last spot.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

The whales, heavy hitters, and large scale bettors do not lay their money down until game day.

Generally yes. But not always. Just like how point spreads don't change a lot most of the time but sometimes you see substantial swings.

The point of that post was Vegas doesn't set lines based on trying to get even money on both sides all the time. They power rate teams based on their perceived strength. Then they let the money come in. If the public goes heavy for one side it doesn't necessarily mean they'll start moving the line to get the bets to be 50/50 on both teams. Vegas is more than happy at times to go against the public if they come in heavy for one team but Vegas like the other.

I remember this happened in 2016 when we played Florida. Going into that week we had that terrible performance against North Texas. Most of the public was on Florida. So much so that Vegas did move the line quite a bit. But nonetheless they kept Tennessee as a favorite despite all the money coming in on Florida. We ended up winning and covering. Vegas made out huge cause they essentially won on all the bets even those that came in on Florida before the spread was moved.

FTR the reverse also happens (though not as often). The public will come in big on a team. Vegas won't move the line substantially. Then they get hammered as the public is proven right. This just doesn't happen as much cause if it did Vegas wouldn't still be in business.