Here Comes the Recession

[MontyPython]

An interesting argument.

And I heard the other day on CNBC that the airlines had record $28 billion in profits last year. Now they can't survive for 2 months with no or little revenue? If they say they will pay it back, guess who is going to pay it? Not them. We will. A "Coronavirus Surcharge" on future flights.

Sure they can survive... by furloughing the majority of their workforce. Does that solve anything? No.

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[lawgator1]

Yup. The cascade of such claims is going to be a real challenge for the government.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Pathetic. I'm sorry... who's President now? Are you suggesting Trump is haunted by the Presidents of Christmas past or something? LMAO. Is Trump is incapable of actually leading our nation NOW when we need our President to lead?

Oh, wait. You're actually right.

Ahh ok then. Carry on. Blame everyone else for Donald's incompetence.

Box. Checked.

Lol.

 

[MontyPython]

Treasury Secretary warns US could see 20% unemployment rate due to coronavirus, source says
From CNN's Jeremy Diamond

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday that the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN.

Mnuchin's comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario.

 

[carlos86]

 

[Velo Vol]

 

[MontyPython]

FEB 24 Anyone lighten up on your holdings yet? If no, what are you waiting for?

FEB 25 Self-induced recession is coming. This may be the tip of the iceberg. I think a full blown, sharp, but short contraction is now highly probable.

FEB 25 More indication that it's time to sell...
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump

The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!
123K
4:42 PM - Feb 24, 2020

"FEB 27 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe asked all elementary, middle and high schools nationwide on Thursday to close until late March to help control the spread of the new virus in the country. "

Goodbye worldwide economy. This is gonna get really screwy apparently.

FEB 25 He’s [Trump] absolutely right on the bolded part. They’re looking very good to me also.

You should sell though Mortimer!

How's all this working out for you, Dallas? Yeah, maybe listening to Donald Trump ain't such a great idea after all, huh?

Let's see if you're man enough to admit I nailed it.

Blue arrows mark Feb 24th.

 

[NorthDallas40]

How's all this working out for you, Dallas? Yeah, maybe listening to Donald Trump ain't such a great idea after all, huh?

Let's see if you're man enough to admit I nailed it.

Blue arrows mark Feb 24th.

View attachment 267073

Oh I stand pat on my statement it was looking good to me. It looks even better now. I haven’t lost a penny yet and I’m about to make serious bank. And you couldn’t nail a 4x8 sheet of plywood with a pneumatic nail gun. A broken clock is right twice a day

 

[MontyPython]

Oh I stand pat on my statement it was looking good to me. It looks even better now. I haven’t lost a penny yet and I’m about to make serious bank. And you couldn’t nail a 4x8 sheet of plywood with a pneumatic nail gun. A broken clock is right twice a day

... and this explains why you're a diehard Trumpster. Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.

Time to put you back on the ignore list.

 

[Velo Vol]

Worst Q1 estimate I've seen, so far.

 

[volfanjustin]

You dems sure are giddy about the markets falling, I guess when one doesn't work and doesn't have retirement savings you can rejoice.

 

[volfanjustin]

... and this explains why you're a diehard Trumpster. Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.

Time to put you back on the ignore list.

LOL

 

[MontyPython]

Worst Q1 estimate I've seen, so far.

Crazy numbers jeeesh. Need that stimulus package asap.

 

[NorthDallas40]

... and this explains why you're a diehard Trumpster. Ignorance is bliss, I suppose.

Time to put you back on the ignore list.

LMAO! Go ahead cupcake!

And I’m a Diehard Trumpster because i invested wisely and stand to make serious ROI? LMAO at your reasoning ability

 

[NorthDallas40]

LOL

He’s the damn definition of snowflake

 

[AM64]

Testing is inconclusive for those showing no symptoms, The last thing we need is a bum rush of everyone to get tested who are showing no symptoms.

Yeah, but you know there will always be a long line waiting for free medical handouts regardless of need. It's free stuff so they gotta have it.

 

[ETV]

How's all this working out for you, Dallas? Yeah, maybe listening to Donald Trump ain't such a great idea after all, huh?

Let's see if you're man enough to admit I nailed it.

Blue arrows mark Feb 24th.

View attachment 267073

Market tips and insight from Nostradamus himself.

 

[VolStrom]

Worst Q1 estimate I've seen, so far.

Actually considering that we are turning the light switch off on virtually every business in the US, that's not too bad.

 

[AM64]

I have mixed feelings about this:

1) I don't need a check for $1,000 to pay my bills.

2) I acknowledge that due to the virus may other people will.

3) If the Feds do this, I will get a check just like everybody else.

4) In a sense, I wish we had time to make such a grand gesture more surgical. Send the checks to people who work at restaurants or on airplanes. But that would take a long, long time, and we don't have it.

5) If it works to help stabilize the economy -- hopefully as we see the number of cases stabilize -- then I feel like the benefit will outweigh the cost.

6) But, $1,000 will barely keep most people going for two weeks, much less three months. Rent, alone, for a month is going to be more than that for a lot of people. So I doubt its effectiveness past the 2-3 week mark.

We don't often agree, but here we do on most points - particularly about the need issue. Some people honestly live hand to mouth, many choose to live that way rather than make wise decisions that include saving. The latter group are the ones who annoy me. I'd give up my "bonus" check except why should people like you and me be penalized and have to pay in taxes to support those who won't take care of themselves. It's to a great decree a selfish attitude I guess, but I'm just really tired of supporting people who won't get their act together and act responsibly.

 

[AM64]

That was a stupid way to put it. Better to say we need this right now to stabilize things and we will come up with a way to make up any shortfalls once the crisis passes, which will hopefully be soon.

The left and economists have jumped on the Keynesian bandwagon for decades with little reason other than political gain. This is a combined Keynes thought with a little less government directed spending and relief effort at work, but we'll probably still hear from some quarters that it didn't work because we didn't spend enough. The SF field mice may get shorted this time unlike their windfall during Obama's great shovel ready project frenzy,

 

[NorthDallas40]

Market tips and insight from Nostradamus himself.

Careful don’t offend nostradumbass or he’ll put you on ignore! What a damn wuss

 

[AM64]

I say let businesses fend for themselves, give people laid off in the hospitality industry unemployment payments and let the chips fall where they may. This bailing out every business because they don't have enough money to weather a squall when they just spent their emergency fund buying their stock back has got to stop.

This is where you get into trouble when the issue is more the profitability of stock and other gambling markets than simply running a sound profitable companies. It is exacerbated by CEOs and other top level executives having stock in the company - the emphasis becomes short term profitability for huge dividends and stock share inflation ... a conflict of interest in short term gains vs a soundly run company. It's the result of unworldly amounts of pension money (both plan and individual) parked in the stock market. The perversion is simply the law of supply and demand at work, and there's an unreasonable supply of cash for the stock markets at work simply because the NY and Chicago casinos offer a better return on investment than any conventional savings scheme. As I have said before the markets are the tail whipping an already concussed flea.

 

[NorthDallas40]

I say let businesses fend for themselves, give people laid off in the hospitality industry unemployment payments and let the chips fall where they may. This bailing out every business because they don't have enough money to weather a squall when they just spent their emergency fund buying their stock back has got to stop.

This is where you get into trouble when the issue is more the profitability of stock and other gambling markets than simply running a sound profitable companies. It is exacerbated by CEOs and other top level executives having stock in the company - the emphasis becomes short term profitability for huge dividends and stock share inflation ... a conflict of interest in short term gains vs a soundly run company. It's the result of unworldly amounts of pension money (both plan and individual) parked in the stock market. The perversion is simply the law of supply and demand at work, and there's an unreasonable supply of cash for the stock markets at work simply because the NY and Chicago casinos offer a better return on investment than any conventional savings scheme. As I have said before the markets are the tail whipping an already concussed flea.

Sadly when you take a company like Boeing, or their primary competitor in the military airframe market Lockheed, there are strategic supplier issues that have to be considered. If we let Boeing shutter due to the 737MAX debacle compounded by this debacle then were down to one strategic supplier for fighter and attack aircraft. And tankers also. There’s no good pure capitalist answer here frankly and I think it sucks.

And as for the airlines I think it was @hog88 whom rightfully pointed out that their aircraft fleet comprises the civil reserve fleet. Those airplane assets and their trained crews show up in a reserve capacity slot on our defense assets. Cruise lines? Not so much anymore I think. I don’t think we’re gonna see the need for troop carriers like we did in WWII but I have no idea of those requirements are still in place or not. But there are indeed shipping assets which show up in a reserve capacity also I’m fairly certain and I have no idea how that can work with vessels not flagged in the US?

 

[AM64]

8 weeks to be exact. First known US case was the beginning of January.....so effectively, we are 8 weeks behind.

If it takes a year to develop, test, gain FDA approval, produce, and finally start immunizing against a disease that didn't exist until a year ago, does that mean we would be a year behind, and Trump is to blame? Are you preparing us for Covid-21 (whatever that might be) so we're prepared if it strikes? I ran a small group of engineers who analyzed and developed solutions for problems in nuclear plants. Over the years I grew to absolutely detest the term "proactive" because we could only be reactive when a problem cropped up. I made sure we had to the best of our ability all the equipment and expendables necessary for testing based on past experience and what we might see as impending - that took a lot of arguing for budget and staffing needs when there was no way to justify them according to normal budgeting processes based on upcoming projects.