Here Comes the Recession

[VolStrom]

Sadly when you take a company like Boeing, or their primary competitor in the military airframe market Lockheed, there are strategic supplier issues that have to be considered. If we let Boeing shutter due to the 737MAX debacle compounded by this debacle then were down to one strategic supplier for fighter and attack aircraft. And tankers also. There’s no good pure capitalist answer here frankly and I think it sucks.

And as for the airlines I think it was @hog88 whom rightfully pointed out that their aircraft fleet comprises the civil reserve fleet. Those airplane assets and their trained crews show up in a reserve capacity slot on our defense assets. Cruise lines? Not so much anymore I think. I don’t think we’re gonna see the need for troop carriers like we did in WWII but I have no idea of those requirements are still in place or not. But there are indeed shipping assets which show up in a reserve capacity also I’m fairly certain and I have no idea how that can work with vessels not flagged in the US?

Boeing is never going to shutter just like GM wasn't allowed to in 2008. What needs to happen is a cleanse of management and there way of thinking. I would actually love to see Boeing have to file for bankruptcy so their arrogant management would be humbled about taking down a once legend of a company. Corporate greed has got to end and the huge distance between the workers paychecks and the bonehead robber barons has got to end.

 

[AM64]

Sadly when you take a company like Boeing, or their primary competitor in the military airframe market Lockheed, there are strategic supplier issues that have to be considered. If we let Boeing shutter due to the 737MAX debacle compounded by this debacle then were down to one strategic supplier for fighter and attack aircraft. And tankers also. There’s no good pure capitalist answer here frankly and I think it sucks.

And as for the airlines I think it was @hog88 whom rightfully pointed out that their aircraft fleet comprises the civil reserve fleet. Those airplane assets and their trained crews show up in a reserve capacity slot on our defense assets. Cruise lines? Not so much anymore I think. I don’t think we’re gonna see the need for troop carriers like we did in WWII but I have no idea of those requirements are still in place or not. But there are indeed shipping assets which show up in a reserve capacity also I’m fairly certain and I have no idea how that can work with vessels not flagged in the US?

I absolutely agree especially concerning the civil reserve fleet aspect. I also think Boeing having moved the headquarters to Chicago and mostly severing ties with the engineering part of the company was a bad decision, and likely had plenty to do with the 737Max problems. I was thinking it was ironic that Delta just parked like 300 planes and had over the past year done extremely well with schedule and passenger demand while American, for example, was really sucking because of the Max issue. Now American probably has all the resources they need and those idle Maxes may be a drag on Boeing rather than American.

There is a very strong (and visible) strategic issue at stake from the airline/aircraft manufacturing, but the other strategic issue - that of manufacturing the materials like metals that the aircraft industry has to have are more hidden and ignored. One that I keep pondering is where are Mil Spec components manufactured these days, and what about the materials necessary to manufacture them? Medicines and their Chinese roots are exposed right now, but people aren't thinking about the rest that got left out of the picture when we embraced globalism over self sufficiency. A lot of this started in the '50s with the "efficiency experts" and continued with lean and mean business models and just in time logistics. That's all great if things work normally, there's perpetual peace, and somebody doesn't turn off the supply tap to prove that they have you over a barrel. Sometimes there just has to be some fat or other "inefficiencies" in the system to get through hard times.

 

[AM64]

Boeing is never going to shutter just like GM wasn't allowed to in 2008. What needs to happen is a cleanse of management and there way of thinking. I would actually love to see Boeing have to file for bankruptcy so their arrogant management would be humbled about taking down a once legend of a company. Corporate greed has got to end and the huge distance between the workers paychecks and the bonehead robber barons has got to end.

Yep, I've been thinking the robber barons are back and hard at work. It's a shame we have to repeat and relearn when history is right there staring us in the face and the lessons are just there free for the taking.

 

[Sin City Vol]

At least the GDP is good right?

 

[NorthDallas40]

Boeing is never going to shutter just like GM wasn't allowed to in 2008. What needs to happen is a cleanse of management and there way of thinking. I would actually love to see Boeing have to file for bankruptcy so their arrogant management would be humbled about taking down a once legend of a company. Corporate greed has got to end and the huge distance between the workers paychecks and the bonehead robber barons has got to end.

GM doesn’t actually have strategic roles that I can tell other than it would sink a presidency. I was livid about that crap.

Boeing at least is a valid strategic chess piece. But like you said blood should flow in the management suite. But a government takeover of a strategic military systems supplier what could possibly go wrong?!

 

[NorthDallas40]

I absolutely agree especially concerning the civil reserve fleet aspect. I also think Boeing having moved the headquarters to Chicago and mostly severing ties with the engineering part of the company was a bad decision, and likely had plenty to do with the 737Max problems. I was thinking it was ironic that Delta just parked like 300 planes and had over the past year done extremely well with schedule and passenger demand while American, for example, was really sucking because of the Max issue. Now American probably has all the resources they need and those idle Maxes may be a drag on Boeing rather than American.

There is a very strong (and visible) strategic issue at stake from the airline/aircraft manufacturing, but the other strategic issue - that of manufacturing the materials like metals that the aircraft industry has to have are more hidden and ignored. One that I keep pondering is where are Mil Spec components manufactured these days, and what about the materials necessary to manufacture them? Medicines and their Chinese roots are exposed right now, but people aren't thinking about the rest that got left out of the picture when we embraced globalism over self sufficiency. A lot of this started in the '50s with the "efficiency experts" and continued with lean and mean business models and just in time logistics. That's all great if things work normally, there's perpetual peace, and somebody doesn't turn off the supply tap to prove that they have you over a barrel. Sometimes there just has to be some fat or other "inefficiencies" in the system to get through hard times.

Actual M grade parts are a rarity in today’s equipment. Most of it contains I grade components with extended screening where required.

Thanks William Perry you completely incompetent ignorant dumbass!

 

[VolStrom]

GM doesn’t actually have strategic roles that I can tell other than it would sink a presidency. I was livid about that crap.

Boeing at least is a valid strategic chess piece. But like you said blood should flow in the management suite. But a government takeover of a strategic military systems supplier what could possibly go wrong?!

In the case of Boeing the current management could not possibly be worse than government mouth breathers. Look at what's happened to them over the last few years. Boeing is full of butt plugged, smooth handed girly men trying to run a business that needs manly men in charge of it.

 

[AM64]

In the case of Boeing the current management could not possibly be worse than government mouth breathers. Look at what's happened to them over the last few years. Boeing is full of butt plugged, smooth handed girly men trying to run a business that needs manly men in charge of it.

But, but, but ... if you can head up a company that bakes cookies surely you are qualified to lead one that bakes airplanes? The modern business training thought is that all the important stuff happens in the big corner office suites ... no need for prior experience in what goes on in the plant is necessary.

 

[NorthDallas40]

But, but, but ... if you can head up a company that bakes cookies surely you are qualified to lead one that bakes airplanes? The modern business training thought is that all the important stuff happens in the big corner office suites ... no need for prior experience in what goes on in the plant is necessary.

Bingo. I’ve had it a long time ago with the latest young mgr type explaining how things really were to me and I had to sugar coat my reply of “listen you little clueless $hit I was designing the legacy equipment in this product line when I was a junior engineer and you were in frigging day school don’t tell me what you think needs to be improved I’ve got the previous improvements documented on my patent plaques on the damn wall!”

Edit: and we did it up hill, both ways, in the damn snow, while sweating our asses off in the middle of July, with nothing but an abacus and a slide rule!

 

[MontyPython]

done.

 

[hog88]

But, but, but ... if you can head up a company that bakes cookies surely you are qualified to lead one that bakes airplanes? The modern business training thought is that all the important stuff happens in the big corner office suites ... no need for prior experience in what goes on in the plant is necessary.

Other than accounting, as long as I'm still in charge there is only 2 paths to management. Sales or Field experience.

 

[MontyPython]

Ohhhhh Fox News. Seriously people... checkout this gem. Just for the record, no oil prices can't go negative, and no they won't, either.

Oil prices could fall below zero: Analyst

Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell by more than 10 percent Wednesday to near $24 a barrel, a level last seen in April 2002.

“Oil prices can go negative,” wrote Paul Sankey, managing director at Mizuho Securities.

 

[TN Ribs]

How's all this working out for you, Dallas? Yeah, maybe listening to Donald Trump ain't such a great idea after all, huh?

Let's see if you're man enough to admit I nailed it.

Blue arrows mark Feb 24th.

View attachment 267073

I should spend more time on VN (go ahead, fire away, I know I'm leaving myself wide open for witty comebacks from my critics). In any event, I wish I had seen all these posts weeks ago and followed your advice.

 

[ETV]

This ain't my first rodeo, Junior.

You should have made a career in Vegas with these predictions you've made.

There's a significant portion of those with investments and 401k's that are experiencing massive losses across the board and yet, here you are tooting your own horn while implying you're the next financial wizard of this century.

If that were the case, you wouldn't be on VN informing the rest of us commoners the levels of greatness you believe you have achieved.

 

[VolStrom]

You should have made a career in Vegas with these predictions you've made.

There's a significant portion of those with investments and 401k's that are experiencing massive losses across the board and yet, here you are tooting your own horn while implying you're the next financial wizard of this century.

If that were the case, you wouldn't be on VN informing the rest of us commoners the levels of greatness you believe you have achieved.

Actually I think it probably is his first rodeo. I've seen some of his posts in the financial genius thread and he's pretty much a tool.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Actually I think it probably is his first rodeo. I've seen some of his posts in the financial genius thread and he's pretty much a tool.

A self absorbed self righteous broken clock tool.

Hey it’s 12:00 again! Aha!

Hey it’s 12:00 again! Aha!

Hey it’s 12:00 again! Aha!

Now look at my time keeping genius

He’s as much a financial genius as that bnhunt is a firearms expert.

 

[ETV]

A self absorbed self righteous broken clock tool.

Hey it’s 12:00 again! Aha!

Hey it’s 12:00 again! Aha!

Hey it’s 12:00 again! Aha!

Now look at my time keeping genius

He’s as much a financial genius as that bnhunt is a firearms expert.

At least the "Attorney" card wasn't pulled.

 

[NorthDallas40]

At least the "Attorney" card wasn't pulled.

LMAO! Good times.

 

[hUTch2002]

It should be easy for everyone to see that we are in an overheated economy right now. A significant sign of an overheated economy is an unemployment rate that is below the normal rate for a country. Ideally, full employment should be great news, but full employment also means higher inflation since everyone who needs a job, has a job, with money to spend. In every recession since World War II, the unemployment rate fell below 5% in the years immediately preceding the period in question. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the unemployment rate has varied between 4.7% and 6.3% since World War II. The unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%. There are also indicators of abnormally high levels of consumer confidence right now and a stock market (asset) bubble. Throw in the compounding problem of government deficit spending, and there will be a recession. It's just a matter of when... it won't be tangible to the public for about two years, in my opinion, but it's going to happen. Every indicator is there.

Actually, that trend of inflation following low unemployment has not been there the last 20+ years. I heard an economist who served a year in the Trump WH saying this exact thing. You were definitely right up until the last 20 years (she may have said 30 actually but I don’t recall for sure on that). That’s why she thought that a recession would be triggered at first, exactly due to the reason you mention, but she had changed her mind. She said I don’t know if online purchasing and other factors have caused unemployment to no longer be a recession predictor or if it was always a bad metric. Anyway, it was quite interesting and you could tell she wasn’t a big Trump fan. She’s a UT professor currently. Anyway, it’s all in the toilet now but I thought I’d share.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Yeah, but you know there will always be a long line waiting for free medical handouts regardless of need. It's free stuff so they gotta have it.

No doubt the selfish toilet paper hoarders will be first in line when the pollen gets thick and their allergies kick in.

 

[AM64]

Actually I think it probably is his first rodeo. I've seen some of his posts in the financial genius thread and he's pretty much a tool.

While watching the evening news with my wife, the stock market came up - going to all electronic trading. All things considered, maybe we should just shut the markets down until things are on firm footing again. We've seen the movie before; we don't need to watch it again - there are others that are far more entertaining.

 

[AM64]

Ohhhhh Fox News. Seriously people... checkout this gem. Just for the record, no oil prices can't go negative, and no they won't, either.

Oil prices could fall below zero: Analyst

Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, fell by more than 10 percent Wednesday to near $24 a barrel, a level last seen in April 2002.

“Oil prices can go negative,” wrote Paul Sankey, managing director at Mizuho Securities.

Yeah, I'm waiting for the day that producers pay somebody to come haul off their oil. This kind of thinking just solidifies my thought on temporarily shutting down the markets. Give the lunatics (market analysts) time to catch their breath or find some semblance of lucidity.

 

[AM64]

Actually, that trend of inflation following low unemployment has not been there the last 20+ years. I heard an economist who served a year in the Trump WH saying this exact thing. You were definitely right up until the last 20 years (she may have said 30 actually but I don’t recall for sure on that). That’s why she thought that a recession would be triggered at first, exactly due to the reason you mention, but she had changed her mind. She said I don’t know if online purchasing and other factors have caused unemployment to no longer be a recession predictor or if it was always a bad metric. Anyway, it was quite interesting and you could tell she wasn’t a big Trump fan. She’s a UT professor currently. Anyway, it’s all in the toilet now but I thought I’d share.

Times have changed. As long as you have un-maxed credit cards, you don't need no stinkin' job. People and even countries can live beyond their means quite easily these days; the question is whether there will be a day of reckoning in our lifetimes.

 

[hUTch2002]

Times have changed. As long as you have un-maxed credit cards, you don't need no stinkin' job. People and even countries can live beyond their means quite easily these days; the question is whether there will be a day of reckoning in our lifetimes.

Excellent point. I’m working on teaching my sons that how much you make doesn’t matter. It’s all about how much you spend. Control your spending and you can live on a modest salary. Don’t control spending and you can make millions and be broke.

 

[MontyPython]

Done.

Best of luck all.