How good is Josh Heupel?

[Cartervol]

The WRs are as big of a problem in the lack of a passing game as Milton is.

Definitely part of it.. The drops aren't helping anything..

 

[turbovol]

Get this: over the past year and a half, Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 16 wins and 3 losses. That's a win rate of .842.

How good is .842? Well, Johnny Majors can't touch it; he ran .645 at Tennessee (his lifetime win rate was lower than that). Even Phillip Fulmer can't get near it; he had a win rate of .745.

There are only two coaches in Tennessee history who come close. The General had a .829 rate...yes, Josh's last season and a half exceed even Neyland's lifetime win percentage. And John Barnhill, who filled in for Neyland during World War II, he was slightly above Josh at .846 while leading the Vols.

The trolls amongst us are going to point out that Heupel's win rate is only valid if you include that 7-6 first season. I'll explain why it's not really important, but for their edification, if you DO include every game Heupel has coached the Vols, his win rate is still .719, still up at a very respectable level.

So why isn't his first season important to include? Because over time, it will disappear into the background. Example: say you take your car to the Bristol speedway, and pay to drive 50 laps around the track. Your goal is an average speed of 130 mph. So you jump in your car and get going. The first lap is disappointing, because you spend the whole thing getting up to speed: average, just 75 mph. The second lap is much better, at 120. The third lap is 125. Fourth is 128. And from there out, every lap comes out at either 131 or 132. Do you meet your goal?

Well, after just three laps it looks like there's no way you're gonna. The average of 75, 120, and 125 mph is only about 107. That first lap at 75 really threw off your average. But at the end of 10 laps, things are looking better: average is now 124. And after 50 laps of running mostly between 131 and 132, your average speed comes out at 129.94. Rounds off to 130. You made it!

That first lap is called an outlier. It doesn't fit the pattern of the rest of your race. And as the race goes on, it becomes less and less significant to the whole.

That's how Heupel's first season is going to fade into the background over time.

Earlly indications are, this man is a .800+ coach. If he can do it before the high-level recruiting even kicks in, he can do it his entire tenure at Tennesee.

We're gonna win championships with him.

Go Vols!


p.s. Even if this season ends up at a rather middling 9-3 (say 10-3 with a bowl win), that will still give Josh a two-year win rate of .808. That's just above Nick Saban's lifetime rate of .802. We got ourselves a coach.

Heupel seems a good coach, maybe very good. Of course you include his first year in his UT coaching record---you can't just cherry-pick numbers.

Coaches are generally as good as their talent. We had excellent offensive talent last year and had an excellent season. We have less talent this year and are struggling offensively. We'll see how we fare against alabama and georgia--both of which are clearly not as talented as they've been in recent years. Georgia is in more of what will probably be a one-year rebuilding mode after losing a TON of talent to the NFL over the last two years. Heupel made some dumb decisions in the A&M game, it must be said.

Vol fans are unhappy at the prospect of losing alabama on the schedule in the new absurdity that will be a 16-team SEC, but not playing alabama every year will give us our best chance of an SEC or national title. Let's be candid. I hate the idea of an expanded NCAA playoff--it's just another of a constant stream of money grabs by everybody, and means even more games. An expanded playoff should mean the end of conference title games---but because conference title games are just money grabs as well, the SEC will probably keep it even though the two teams playing in the SEC title game could already be assured of a spot in the expanded NCAA playoff, which would make the SEC title game completely irrelevant. Rampant commercialism/professionalism is ruining college sports. Everybody--leagues/schools/players--have all become shallow money-grubbers.

 

[37620VOL]

What, you think Heupel is going to lay an egg and go 2-5 or 3-4 in the back half of the season?

Sure, 5-2 is more likely in the back half than 2-5 --- Big But --- suppose Cooper rolls an ankle against Bama we would not only have a less than ideal situation at Center but based on the other OL injuries that we're juggling, we would be starting someone completely unproven at another OL position. Everytime we get ahead of ourselves something crappy happens,,, not this time, nuh uh, this ol boys gonna take 'em one at a time.

 

[Dadof2Vols]

I don't think it was inevitable. If he would have given up on Milton and tried like hell to get even a competent (Not even what you would call good) SEC level QB, I think things would be much better off on offense. And then I think we would have a real shot at a repeat 11-2 season.

I understand your point but I think if he had done that especially after Orange bowl, he would have lost the locker room and blew his culture up. Had Jackson stayed it would have been a battle for QB.

He is trying to win the war not just the battle(season).

 

[vols 30]

Mizzou is a mirage, like Kentucky.

Talent matters and we severely out talent both of those teams. We can definitely lose both games (and our performance under CJH on the road is inconsistent at best), but a loss in either of those games should be more shocking than the loss to SCAR last year.

Last year's South Carolina loss is 10x more shocking than a potential loss to Mizzou or UK. Not Even close IMO.

 

[BoColoco]

And he is 5-1 this season with what most on here think is QB who shouldn’t even be playing peewee football.

I coach a youth team - I’d take Joe in a heartbeat. There’s not a kid in the league he wouldn’t wreck, and he’d never have to throw a pass.

 

[Jpcisco]

I posted this in another thread but going to post it here as well. 22 straight weeks ranked. Considering what this man walked into, that's pretty damn impressive. We have a good one.

 

[LTVol]

its not really fair to compare JH to Johnny or Phil. It was 10 years before Johnny finished in the top 20. Phil took over a pretty good program then took it to the next level. JH doesnt have the luxury of either of those scenarios. Its unfortunate but his leash will be short if the wins are mediocre but that's the day and age we live in

It’s not fair to compare JH win pct in a cherry picked 19 game stretch to other coaches’ career win pct. Neyland had a stretch from 38-39 where his pct was 1.000. Fulmer was 18-1 from 1998-99.

 

[1Big_Orange_Fan]

I think in a vacuum some people will question some of his decisions. Like not taking FGs at times, when you look big picture though I think he’s pretty aware of what he has and how to put his team in the best position to win.

I question not taking FGs at times myself but with this offense I think we should probably take what we can get. Long FGs are questionable though because our kicker isn't very good beyond 45 yards.

 

[GVol1966]

Let's finish the year and use the numbers from 2 full seasons. I remember doing similar comparisons during similar good runs by Butch and Pruitt.

You remember what? Pruitt NEVER had any good runs.
Butch had 1 9-3 season

 

[Hunter10139]

So far, so good. He seems to be able to take the pieces we have, adapt to their strengths, and get quite a few wins with them.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Get this: over the past year and a half, Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 16 wins and 3 losses. That's a win rate of .842.

How good is .842? Well, Johnny Majors can't touch it; he ran .645 at Tennessee (his lifetime win rate was lower than that). Even Phillip Fulmer can't get near it; he had a win rate of .745.

There are only two coaches in Tennessee history who come close. The General had a .829 rate...yes, Josh's last season and a half exceed even Neyland's lifetime win percentage. And John Barnhill, who filled in for Neyland during World War II, he was slightly above Josh at .846 while leading the Vols.

The trolls amongst us are going to point out that Heupel's win rate is only valid if you include that 7-6 first season. I'll explain why it's not really important, but for their edification, if you DO include every game Heupel has coached the Vols, his win rate is still .719, still up at a very respectable level.

So why isn't his first season important to include? Because over time, it will disappear into the background. Example: say you take your car to the Bristol speedway, and pay to drive 50 laps around the track. Your goal is an average speed of 130 mph. So you jump in your car and get going. The first lap is disappointing, because you spend the whole thing getting up to speed: average, just 75 mph. The second lap is much better, at 120. The third lap is 125. Fourth is 128. And from there out, every lap comes out at either 131 or 132. Do you meet your goal?

Well, after just three laps it looks like there's no way you're gonna. The average of 75, 120, and 125 mph is only about 107. That first lap at 75 really threw off your average. But at the end of 10 laps, things are looking better: average is now 124. And after 50 laps of running mostly between 131 and 132, your average speed comes out at 129.94. Rounds off to 130. You made it!

That first lap is called an outlier. It doesn't fit the pattern of the rest of your race. And as the race goes on, it becomes less and less significant to the whole.

That's how Heupel's first season is going to fade into the background over time.

Earlly indications are, this man is a .800+ coach. If he can do it before the high-level recruiting even kicks in, he can do it his entire tenure at Tennesee.

We're gonna win championships with him.

Go Vols!


p.s. Even if this season ends up at a rather middling 9-3 (say 10-3 with a bowl win), that will still give Josh a two-year win rate of .808. That's just above Nick Saban's lifetime rate of .802. We got ourselves a coach.

I’m a believer in our coach. His game decisions in pressure situations have been questionable this year, but the unexpected turnaround here is almost unimaginable. He’s a high integrity leader with a very innovative sense for the game. We got the right person.

That said, choosing two years of three as your “data” is a deeply flawed exercise. You can’t call 33% of a small sample an “outlier”. You also can’t judge a long term coach with an arc of ascension and collapse as analogous to the first three years for a coach.

Here’s to Heupel matching your hopes and mine, but there’s too many unknowns to know a long term win rate. Let’s hope it’s high.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

Wide receiver drops are a big piece of the problem in the passing game. I know Keyton has made some dazzling catches, but this year, he has a tendency to drop the passes that hit him right in the hands. Thornton really hasn't had much of an impact, hopefully he will get more involved, Squirrel is the biggest target, but defenses are keying on him now. The rest are relatively inexperienced. I think the defense can be the deciding factor if they play the rest of the season like they did Saturday. Offensive line is doing a pretty good job making a running lane for the running backs, but we could be an injury or two away from the season taking a downward trajectory.

 

[37620VOL]

You remember what? Pruitt NEVER had any good runs.
Butch had 1 9-3 season

Pruitt had a stretch where he was 8-0 spanning the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. All of it now vacated.

Jones was 12-1 spanning the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016.

 

[volfan102455]

He showed me he was a good coach on Saturday.

Everyone wants this offense to be "like it was last year". We are not UGA or BAMA yet where we have the talent stacked behind the starters. Don't care how good some of you think Nico is - unless he is the reincarnation of Joshua Dobbs who could make plays when plays did not even exist, we need the WR's to also get better.

Saturday CJH and his supporting cast of coaches game planned what was needed to win the game. They did not try to force the offense that many on here want to force. Why pass when you can run while your defense is basically shutting the other team down.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Let's finish the year and use the numbers from 2 full seasons. I remember doing similar comparisons during similar good runs by Butch and Pruitt.

Butch and Pruitt never sniffed a NY6 bowl or 11 wins. Don’t ever mention those two in the same stratosphere as Heupel.

 

[37620VOL]

Butch and Pruitt never sniffed a NY6 bowl or 11 wins. Don’t ever mention those two in the same stratosphere as Heupel.

Didn't

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Pruitt had a stretch where he was 8-0 spanning the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020. All of it now vacated.

Jones was 12-1 spanning the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016.

Heupel could coach circles around both in his sleep

 

[DaddyChad]

I question not taking FGs at times myself but with this offense I think we should probably take what we can get. Long FGs are questionable though because our kicker isn't very good beyond 45 yards.

The early one this weekend I believe was the only easy one that he didn’t go for. Probably believed at that point that FGs weren’t going to win and it was a good opportunity to convert that down and distance. The long one we missed honestly I thought he should’ve went for the first down there. The one after that was 47 yards and he didn’t elect to kick it; it was only slightly closer than the one we had just missed. The wind was every which way throughout the game as well.

You’ve got a kicker with a range normally inside 45 and it was very windy. Hard to argue with any other than the early one and that was a manageable down and distance.

 

[sjt18]

Heupel is a very good leader. That's more important than anything else.

He is also proving to be incredibly flexible and ingenious in spite of not having the ideal pieces on one side of the ball or the other. He's building toward something great.

 

[onevol74]

Phil also had two 5-7 seasons in his last few years too. IIRC at one point his W-L % was in the 80's, before holding on too long ruined it

Fulmer touted his winning percentage for several years when he took the program over. Funny how he started ignoring it as he continued. The fact is that he took over a program that won 3 SEC Championships in the previous 6 years. It took him 6 years to win the next one.


Heupel took over a program that was in the mud and totally depleted of talent with a chain of NCAA sanctions around its neck.

 

[DaddyChad]

The Florida loss pisses me off but when I look at our actual talent it isn’t fantastic. Our qb is one of the worst in the conference, wrs below average thus far, running backs are actually exceptional, Oline isn’t great this year and depth is a serious issue there.

He’s managed to overachieve with talent and depth issues the entire time he’s been here. And we’re just now starting to hit our stride recruiting.

 

[sjt18]

Let's finish the year and use the numbers from 2 full seasons. I remember doing similar comparisons during similar good runs by Butch and Pruitt.

Can't remember. Are you one of those who disliked Heupel from the start? Seems like you are... and still look for ways to justify doubt.

Heupel is a much better leader than either of the others. He's also a much smarter coach.


Jones in particular was a terrible leader and far below average in his knowledge of the game. His resume when hired was thinner than the paper it was printed on. That walking talking cliche simply has no business being a Power 5 coach much less SEC.

Pruitt was born about 30 years too late. He needed to coach in the early Fulmer era when cheating was covered up and everyone took snaps under center. The game and players today too different and complex for him. The game evolved. He didn't. IMHO, that is precisely why Fulmer hired him. Fulmer wanted to prove that he was wrongly fired and that his way still worked. So he hired someone who he thought would do it like he did it all those years ago. It failed.

 

[sjt18]

Phil also had two 5-7 seasons in his last few years too. IIRC at one point his W-L % was in the 80's, before holding on too long ruined it

Fulmer had two careers. One started in '93 and ran to the 2001 CG. It may have ended a little earlier as Sanders' effect on the O following Cut began. I blame Sanders but Fulmer's refusal to evolve offensively was a huge part of it. After 99, UT became an also ran under Fulmer then when he would not change the attempts to "fix" the problem just made it worse.

 

[37620VOL]

Can't remember. Are you one of those who disliked Heupel from the start? Seems like you are... and still look for ways to justify doubt.

Heupel is a much better leader than either of the others. He's also a much smarter coach.


Jones in particular was a terrible leader and far below average in his knowledge of the game. His resume when hired was thinner than the paper it was printed on. That walking talking cliche simply has no business being a Power 5 coach much less SEC.

Pruitt was born about 30 years too late. He needed to coach in the early Fulmer era when cheating was covered up and everyone took snaps under center. The game and players today too different and complex for him. The game evolved. He didn't. IMHO, that is precisely why Fulmer hired him. Fulmer wanted to prove that he was wrongly fired and that his way still worked. So he hired someone who he thought would do it like he did it all those years ago. It failed.

You have a bad memory, sir. I like Heupel a lot; I'm just not ready to put him with Saban just yet.

I get crap from both sides on here which tells me my opinions are right where they need to be.