How good is Josh Heupel?

#76
#76
EZE said:
If I had to bet, I’d bet that we split between Kentucky and Mizzou.

Certainly capable of beating (or losing) both, but I suspect that we’ll play well in one and stub our toe in the other.
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Why? What makes you think they will regress to what they did vs UF and especially on D or in the run game?

To put my thoughts in perspective, Mizzou's "best" win outside of UK is K-State. KSU is 4-2 but they don't have any good wins either.

UK's best win is obviously UF. They were smoked by UGA. The rest of their schedule is pure trash.

In every possible respect and measure, A&M is a lot better than either of those teams. They have more talent. They're better on both sides of the ball. Leary has been downright awful without facing anything like what UT will throw at him. Mizzou hasn't seen anything even close.

I think those two programs are on relatively equal planes.... and I think both are already levels below UT.
 
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#78
#78
sjt18 said:
Why? What makes you think they will regress to what they did vs UF and especially on D or in the run game?

To put my thoughts in perspective, Mizzou's "best" win outside of UK is K-State. KSU is 4-2 but they don't have any good wins either.

UK's best win is obviously UF. They were smoked by UGA. The rest of their schedule is pure trash.

In every possible respect and measure, A&M is a lot better than either of those teams. They have more talent. They're better on both sides of the ball. Leary has been downright awful without facing anything like what UT will throw at him. Mizzou hasn't seen anything even close.

I think those two programs are on relatively equal planes.... and I think both are already levels below UT.
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I don’t disagree with any of that. If we play well in both games, we should win both games.

But, I believe that we likely will struggle in at least one of them.

Milton alone is capable of losing either game.
 
#79
#79
BACKDOC said:
When your offense is not so great, and your are playing a very good D you kick the ball on 4th and 7.
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The kicker missed from 4 yards farther a few mins earlier. The kick didn’t appear to be close from where I was sitting. It was windy as hell as well if you weren’t in the stadium.
 
#80
#80
EZE said:
I don’t disagree with any of that. If we play well in both games, we should win both games.

But, I believe that we likely will struggle in at least one of them.

Milton alone is capable of losing either game.
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My faith is in Heupel to get what he needs from him.

I would really like to see him more in the run game. That partially offsets his shortcomings in the passing game. I like the QB isolation they used to run with Dobbs. That would be a great play with Milton. I like that option look they ran the other day. Even just a QB sweep could help keep opponents honest... maybe attach an RPO up route to it to keep D's honest.

UT could lose one or both. UT is a better team than either.
 
#81
#81
I do wonder why Heupel hasn't called more designed runs for Milton. Those should happen at least 6 - 8 times a game to take the pressure off both the passing game and to keep the front 7 from focusing on only the backs.
 
#82
#82
I think CJH is an excellent coach, but I think he is a young HC and is still learning. He sometimes out thinks himself. If he keeps recruiting talent and learning in game coaching, he can be as successful as any coach in the SEC.
As part of his recruiting he must recruit a top QB every 2 years. QB play is the most important position in his offense.
 
#83
#83
daj2576 said:
Mizzou is a mirage, like Kentucky.

Talent matters and we severely out talent both of those teams. We can definitely lose both games (and our performance under CJH on the road is inconsistent at best), but a loss in either of those games should be more shocking than the loss to SCAR last year.
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Say it loud for the clueless mouthbreathers that still get their knowledge form espn and tv
 
#84
#84
We VOL NATION need to give coach time, we will be elite in 2 years, some don't won't to hear this but he took over a team nobody wanted,He will lead us to PLAYOFFS need 2 more recruiting classes and we will be there.
 
#85
#85
We don't have to throw bombs every other play but we do some to loosen the defense, but the WRs have to make some catches too. If the balls behind them ok put it on the QB but if it hits their hands they need to catch them.
 
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#89
#89
JHuntVols said:
Hooker averaged about 10 runs per game in 2022. I don't think that's it!
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Hooker knew how to run and was somewhat elusive. Joe has straight ahead speed, but very little elusiveness. Details matter to a coach. And yes, Heupel still knows better than you on how to scheme around Joe
 
#91
#91
sjt18 said:
Why? What makes you think they will regress to what they did vs UF and especially on D or in the run game?

To put my thoughts in perspective, Mizzou's "best" win outside of UK is K-State. KSU is 4-2 but they don't have any good wins either.

UK's best win is obviously UF. They were smoked by UGA. The rest of their schedule is pure trash.

In every possible respect and measure, A&M is a lot better than either of those teams. They have more talent. They're better on both sides of the ball. Leary has been downright awful without facing anything like what UT will throw at him. Mizzou hasn't seen anything even close.

I think those two programs are on relatively equal planes.... and I think both are already levels below UT.
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Fulmers win% after 2 years was 92% I remember it being mentioned every Jefferson Pilot game. Overall he's just under 75% That's like 8- 4. Never had a genius with cordinators,but has excellent position coaches. Somewhere we lost that good ole boy money and coaches left and recruits went elsewhere.. Let's Just let him coach and try not to compare,,he's totally unlike we had had. Good or bad,he's genuine
 
#92
#92
KnoxCentral92 said:
Fulmers win% after 2 years was 92% I remember it being mentioned every Jefferson Pilot game. Overall he's just under 75% That's like 8- 4. Never had a genius with cordinators,but has excellent position coaches. Somewhere we lost that good ole boy money and coaches left and recruits went elsewhere.. Let's Just let him coach and try not to compare,,he's totally unlike we had had. Good or bad,he's genuine
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Sorry bro. Wrong post..lol. I was trying reply to opening post. New tablet and fatfingers
 
#94
#94
Josh Heupel is Damn good. Just as he was as a champion quarterback at Oklahoma who should have won the Heisman. The man can play and coach and is a FIERCE competitor. Neyland - Barnhill - Majors - Fulmer - Heupel. I would include Dickey on the Mount Rushmore list but the dumb SOB headed from Tennessee to Florida only to destroy his once superb coaching career.
 
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#95
#95
1.Not quite enough sample size IMO 2.As many, our schedule is front loaded for wins, so 1.5 years is leaving out this year's gauntlet
... outside that, I like what you've done. CJH has done a spectacular job, considering the dumpster fire he inherited in 21'. That cannot be forgotten.
 
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#96
#96
I hope CJH stays at UT until he retires about 47 years from now and the Vols win 10-15 Nattys under his tutelage.
 
#98
#98
livefaith said:
1.Not quite enough sample size IMO 2.As many, our schedule is front loaded for wins, so 1.5 years is leaving out this year's gauntlet
... outside that, I like what you've done. CJH has done a spectacular job, considering the dumpster fire he inherited in 21'. That cannot be forgotten.
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It is a small sample size, thus far.

But aren't you pretty confident he's going to remain about this good--if not much better--for as far as the eye can see?

Go Vols!
 
#99
#99
VFL-82-JP said:
Get this: over the past year and a half, Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 16 wins and 3 losses. That's a win rate of .842.

How good is .842? Well, Johnny Majors can't touch it; he ran .645 at Tennessee (his lifetime win rate was lower than that). Even Phillip Fulmer can't get near it; he had a win rate of .745.

There are only two coaches in Tennessee history who come close. The General had a .829 rate...yes, Josh's last season and a half exceed even Neyland's lifetime win percentage. And John Barnhill, who filled in for Neyland during World War II, he was slightly above Josh at .846 while leading the Vols.

The trolls amongst us are going to point out that Heupel's win rate is only valid if you include that 7-6 first season. I'll explain why it's not really important, but for their edification, if you DO include every game Heupel has coached the Vols, his win rate is still .719, still up at a very respectable level.

So why isn't his first season important to include? Because over time, it will disappear into the background. Example: say you take your car to the Bristol speedway, and pay to drive 50 laps around the track. Your goal is an average speed of 130 mph. So you jump in your car and get going. The first lap is disappointing, because you spend the whole thing getting up to speed: average, just 75 mph. The second lap is much better, at 120. The third lap is 125. Fourth is 128. And from there out, every lap comes out at either 131 or 132. Do you meet your goal?

Well, after just three laps it looks like there's no way you're gonna. The average of 75, 120, and 125 mph is only about 107. That first lap at 75 really threw off your average. But at the end of 10 laps, things are looking better: average is now 124. And after 50 laps of running mostly between 131 and 132, your average speed comes out at 129.94. Rounds off to 130. You made it!

That first lap is called an outlier. It doesn't fit the pattern of the rest of your race. And as the race goes on, it becomes less and less significant to the whole.

That's how Heupel's first season is going to fade into the background over time.

Earlly indications are, this man is a .800+ coach. If he can do it before the high-level recruiting even kicks in, he can do it his entire tenure at Tennesee.

We're gonna win championships with him.

Go Vols!


p.s. Even if this season ends up at a rather middling 9-3 (say 10-3 with a bowl win), that will still give Josh a two-year win rate of .808. That's just above Nick Saban's lifetime rate of .802. We got ourselves a coach.
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One thing I really like about JH, we don't have a mass exit of the assistant coaches at the end of the season! It seems most all the coaches like the environment.

For me, this is a HUGE plus!! (now maybe there is one that should leave, but that's a different story)
 
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#100
#100
VFL-82-JP said:
It is a small sample size, thus far.

But aren't you pretty confident he's going to remain about this good--if not much better--for as far as the eye can see?

Go Vols!
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Yes. I think we by a twist of fate landed in of the best minds and attractive leaders of young men in CFB.
Nobody, and I mean nobody, around here had this guy in their top 10. We were so defeated after SchiatNoGate and the fallout from it, that a mid major coach was expected. Even one who's program " fell off" after taking over.
I DO believe he's going to continue to get better. CJH is a very very young coach in terms of HC experience. He's game coached well, led well, and represented well. But, what impresses the most is how he has rebuilt the roster and is now got the recruiting machine in line with the SEC. Mind blowing honestly.
 
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