How good is Josh Heupel?

[Flipdaddy]

He amazes me at how good of a manager he is. Most coaches would’ve panicked this year with ole Joe behind center.

 

[JHuntVols]

Well, I think it's been well documented that this is a run first offense... looks to be about 9 - 10 more runs on average. Curiously, Hooker in 2022 and Milton in 2023 are averaging the same attempts per game... the results are obviously much different though.

 

[VolfromBirth65]

Heupel is a great coach, but I worry people are going to be down on him if we finish the season 8-4. And it's more likely than people realize (Mizzou is pretty damn good this year and we play them on the road).

I don't think people understand that, to some extent, this season was inevitable. We had a load of offensive talent when Heupel came in, but we had an effective dead recruiting class in 2020. And part of what we're seeing is the impact of that. Not enough O-line depth. Offense is filled with very young players and we lost all our best players to the draft (Hooker, Hyatt, D-Wright, Tillman).

Overall, Heupel has greatly outperformed given the circumstances he inherited, and I think he's the guy long-term. The fact that people have all but forgotten the situation he walked into is a testament to just how good he is. Most coaches would not have won nearly as many games as Heupel has won in the same circumstance.

That there is a fact, too many HCs looking for a buy, not CJH. Disloyal VOL fans have forgotten the span from (2009-2020). CJH, didn't do a Prime Time move bringing in his own luggage, no he coached up the players he had . We Volnation will be fine, give it time, not Prime Time.

 

[vegasvolfan]

its not really fair to compare JH to Johnny or Phil. It was 10 years before Johnny finished in the top 20. Phil took over a pretty good program then took it to the next level. JH doesnt have the luxury of either of those scenarios. Its unfortunate but his leash will be short if the wins are mediocre but that's the day and age we live in

He also has coached far fewer games lol

 

[AthensVol2007]

We're certainly capable of beating them, but Brady Cook is one of the best QBs in the SEC. And given that Milton has underperformed significantly thus far and the game is in Columbia, that's far from an easy win. Sure, our "talent" is better than theirs on average, but at the most important position, they are much better than us.

I'm more skeptical of Kentucky than Mizzou. Kentucky feasted on a weak early season schedule and is very 1-dimensional.

Who has Mizzou beaten of substance? UK?

 

[vegasvolfan]

Get this: over the past year and a half, Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 16 wins and 3 losses. That's a win rate of .842.

How good is .842? Well, Johnny Majors can't touch it; he ran .645 at Tennessee (his lifetime win rate was lower than that). Even Phillip Fulmer can't get near it; he had a win rate of .745.

There are only two coaches in Tennessee history who come close. The General had a .829 rate...yes, Josh's last season and a half exceed even Neyland's lifetime win percentage. And John Barnhill, who filled in for Neyland during World War II, he was slightly above Josh at .846 while leading the Vols.

The trolls amongst us are going to point out that Heupel's win rate is only valid if you include that 7-6 first season. I'll explain why it's not really important, but for their edification, if you DO include every game Heupel has coached the Vols, his win rate is still .719, still up at a very respectable level.

So why isn't his first season important to include? Because over time, it will disappear into the background. Example: say you take your car to the Bristol speedway, and pay to drive 50 laps around the track. Your goal is an average speed of 130 mph. So you jump in your car and get going. The first lap is disappointing, because you spend the whole thing getting up to speed: average, just 75 mph. The second lap is much better, at 120. The third lap is 125. Fourth is 128. And from there out, every lap comes out at either 131 or 132. Do you meet your goal?

Well, after just three laps it looks like there's no way you're gonna. The average of 75, 120, and 125 mph is only about 107. That first lap at 75 really threw off your average. But at the end of 10 laps, things are looking better: average is now 124. And after 50 laps of running mostly between 131 and 132, your average speed comes out at 129.94. Rounds off to 130. You made it!

That first lap is called an outlier. It doesn't fit the pattern of the rest of your race. And as the race goes on, it becomes less and less significant to the whole.

That's how Heupel's first season is going to fade into the background over time.

Earlly indications are, this man is a .800+ coach. If he can do it before the high-level recruiting even kicks in, he can do it his entire tenure at Tennesee.

We're gonna win championships with him.

Go Vols!


p.s. Even if this season ends up at a rather middling 9-3 (say 10-3 with a bowl win), that will still give Josh a two-year win rate of .808. That's just above Nick Saban's lifetime rate of .802. We got ourselves a coach.

We won’t know until his career is well on his way. Why use his last 19 games and then encompass Phil and Majors’ entire career. That said, Majors’ career record was 185–137–10 and coached 332 games. Phil’s was 152–52 and coached 204 games. 51–17 And coached 68 games. He has coached for less than half the games of Fulmer and less than a 3rd of Majors.

What Heupel has done with what he started with was nothing short of remarkable. But we have yet to be the best in the SEC or even the SEC East. Perhaps the second best in the SEC. What he inherited and how few seasons he has coached in the SEC goes to support his case there, however. The reality is we just don’t know. This season could turn out a lot worse than it looks at the moment, and I still don’t think we will know. If he somehow manages a 10-3 season, he will have hit the highest >expectations< any sane person should have had for him this year, and I will feel like he has gone ahead and let us know who he most likely is. For now, jury is still out. That said, I’m very high on him. He seems so knowledgeable when he speaks. The players and coaches like him. He handles the media well. He keeps his staff together and seems good at developing players and coaches that develop players. He adjusts to his players’ capabilities. There is a boatload to like. If he keeps winning as he has, then there will be no doubt. That said, the SEC is already more competitive than it has been in the past and it’s about to get that much tougher. This makes it a little less fair to compare him to when the SEC had only a few decent teams at a time. Just so hard to make comparisons especially when we are only his 5th season into coaching and half way through his 3rd year in the SEC.

 

[BanditVol]

We're certainly capable of beating them, but Brady Cook is one of the best QBs in the SEC. And given that Milton has underperformed significantly thus far and the game is in Columbia, that's far from an easy win. Sure, our "talent" is better than theirs on average, but at the most important position, they are much better than us.

I'm more skeptical of Kentucky than Mizzou. Kentucky feasted on a weak early season schedule and is very 1-dimensional.

Mizzou's early schedule also weak. Beat vandy, 3 OOC patsies, and barely beat an overated KSU at home. Then schooled UK, but that doesn't mean much IMO.

I think we take them, but it might not be easy.

 

[Adam Sandler]

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Johnny's first ranked team at the end of the season was top 5

We nearly won NC and we’re probably best team in the nation at the end of the 85 season. Johnny’s 89 team was another that was one of the nations best.

 

[chuck0303]

Get this: over the past year and a half, Josh Heupel has led the Vols to 16 wins and 3 losses. That's a win rate of .842.

How good is .842? Well, Johnny Majors can't touch it; he ran .645 at Tennessee (his lifetime win rate was lower than that). Even Phillip Fulmer can't get near it; he had a win rate of .745.

There are only two coaches in Tennessee history who come close. The General had a .829 rate...yes, Josh's last season and a half exceed even Neyland's lifetime win percentage. And John Barnhill, who filled in for Neyland during World War II, he was slightly above Josh at .846 while leading the Vols.

The trolls amongst us are going to point out that Heupel's win rate is only valid if you include that 7-6 first season. I'll explain why it's not really important, but for their edification, if you DO include every game Heupel has coached the Vols, his win rate is still .719, still up at a very respectable level.

So why isn't his first season important to include? Because over time, it will disappear into the background. Example: say you take your car to the Bristol speedway, and pay to drive 50 laps around the track. Your goal is an average speed of 130 mph. So you jump in your car and get going. The first lap is disappointing, because you spend the whole thing getting up to speed: average, just 75 mph. The second lap is much better, at 120. The third lap is 125. Fourth is 128. And from there out, every lap comes out at either 131 or 132. Do you meet your goal?

Well, after just three laps it looks like there's no way you're gonna. The average of 75, 120, and 125 mph is only about 107. That first lap at 75 really threw off your average. But at the end of 10 laps, things are looking better: average is now 124. And after 50 laps of running mostly between 131 and 132, your average speed comes out at 129.94. Rounds off to 130. You made it!

That first lap is called an outlier. It doesn't fit the pattern of the rest of your race. And as the race goes on, it becomes less and less significant to the whole.

That's how Heupel's first season is going to fade into the background over time.

Earlly indications are, this man is a .800+ coach. If he can do it before the high-level recruiting even kicks in, he can do it his entire tenure at Tennesee.

We're gonna win championships with him.

Go Vols!


p.s. Even if this season ends up at a rather middling 9-3 (say 10-3 with a bowl win), that will still give Josh a two-year win rate of .808. That's just above Nick Saban's lifetime rate of .802. We got ourselves a coach.

Say you take your golf cart to Piggly Wiggly and run 20 laps through the produce section is that enough to make a valid comparison, or do you have to go down the cereal aisle too? LOL.

 

[OrangeTsar]

He's good enough to know his best weapons are his RB's and put the ball in their hands. He's tiptoed the playcalling around Milton too for obvious reasons that keep showing up every week. In other words he's smart enough to not try and fit the square peg in the round hole like a lot of coaches do.

Heup has indeed done an excellent job since arriving on the scene. Can’t argue with the results at all. I think this season is a struggle because he didn’t have his idea QB pipeline going until he picked up Nico. Heup‘s first two seasons he had a choice between two veteran signal callers in Milton and Hooker. 2023 was always going to be that transition year between the initial state of the offensive personnel and the time when Heupel was stacking year after year of the people he really wanted. I don’t think we will ever be effectively one deep at QB again.

 

[OrangeTsar]

We nearly won NC and we’re probably best team in the nation at the end of the 85 season. Johnny’s 89 team was another that was one of the nations best.

One thing to keep in mind, Johnny didn’t have access to NIL and the portal. Took a lot longer to build talent levels back then.
That said, glad we have a Coach like Heupel who knew exactly how to build a team quickly under the new rules