I Think We Get Left OUT of Playoffs- Regardless

#126
#126
I think the committee wants us IN … they know one of the teams ahead of us will lose and they left us at 5 … I think win out and were in …. but we need to continue to blow out the competition in these last 2. I don’t see how they can leave us out with our SOS.
 
#127
#127
keepitreal2022 said:
The only way the SEC gets 2 teams in the playoffs is if the loser of the Mich/OSU game gets blown out or it's a non-competitive game.

I think the committee will give the Big 10 the same benefit of the doubt that they gave the SEC last year. Bama was 11-1 but went to the SECCG and won, and UGA was undefeated going into the game but was #1 for most of the CFP rankings. The same can be said back in 2017, Bama did not play in the SEC title game but got in with UGA. Bama was beaten by an 11-1 Auburn who was beaten by an 11-1 UGA in the SEC title game. Our biggest wins come against teams with 2 losses and our remaining schedule does not have a top-20 team left. In other words, if Mich/OSU goes into their game undefeated and plays like they did last year where the winner won by less than 10, then the loser will get the same benefit of the doubt. Let's hope the Mich/OSU game is a blowout one way or the other. I think the 4th team will be either TCU or the PAC 12 winner with 0 or 1 loss. Also, we need TCU to slip up. Baylor did not look like a world-beater today. The playoff committee would like nothing more than to have teams representing 4 out of the 5 power conferences. It's all about the money. Take your emotions out of it. Do you think they will pick us over USC and risk losing the west coast or Texas/ Southwest viewership?

OSU (#3 Mich)
UGA (#7 LSU)
Mich (#2 OSU)
USC/TCU (USC would play #9 UCLA)

btw- I think TA&M will beat LSU- Jimbo will be playing for a lot.
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We need Georgia to win out and USC and TCU to take a loss, which is entirely possible. If those three things happen it will be two SEC and two Big 10 teams (barring a UM/OSU blowout) in the CFP. There's no way the committe could get around it.
 
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#128
#128
sami said:
We need Georgia to win out and USC and TCU to take a loss, which is entirely possible. If those three things happen it will be two SEC and two Big 10 teams (barring a UM/OSU blowout) in the CFP. There's no way the committe could get around it.
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USC is irrelevant as long as Utah has 1 conference loss…. .
 
#129
#129
keepitreal2022 said:
The only way the SEC gets 2 teams in the playoffs is if the loser of the Mich/OSU game gets blown out or it's a non-competitive game.

I think the committee will give the Big 10 the same benefit of the doubt that they gave the SEC last year. Bama was 11-1 but went to the SECCG and won, and UGA was undefeated going into the game but was #1 for most of the CFP rankings. The same can be said back in 2017, Bama did not play in the SEC title game but got in with UGA. Bama was beaten by an 11-1 Auburn who was beaten by an 11-1 UGA in the SEC title game. Our biggest wins come against teams with 2 losses and our remaining schedule does not have a top-20 team left. In other words, if Mich/OSU goes into their game undefeated and plays like they did last year where the winner won by less than 10, then the loser will get the same benefit of the doubt. Let's hope the Mich/OSU game is a blowout one way or the other. I think the 4th team will be either TCU or the PAC 12 winner with 0 or 1 loss. Also, we need TCU to slip up. Baylor did not look like a world-beater today. The playoff committee would like nothing more than to have teams representing 4 out of the 5 power conferences. It's all about the money. Take your emotions out of it. Do you think they will pick us over USC and risk losing the west coast or Texas/ Southwest viewership?

OSU (#3 Mich)
UGA (#7 LSU)
Mich (#2 OSU)
USC/TCU (USC would play #9 UCLA)

btw- I think TA&M will beat LSU- Jimbo will be playing for a lot.
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Don’t say regardless. But we need help. And with Michigans AD on the committee, anything is possible. We need a decisive Ohio St win, which ironically clinches the Heisman for Stroud.
 
#130
#130
JMSqb11 said:
USC is irrelevant as long as Utah has 1 conference loss…. .
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Wrong. If USC beats UCLA, they get (ranked) ND and the winner of next weeks Oregon/Utah game in the conference championship. Those are 3 high profile games to end the season. You know the committee would overlook USC losing on the road on a 2 point conversion.
 
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#133
#133
Michigan hasn’t beaten anyone yet. OSUs only “quality” win was against a clearly overrated ND the first game. We have a much better resume. But will we get in? Dunno. 50/50 IMO
 
#134
#134
JMSqb11 said:
USC is irrelevant as long as Utah has 1 conference loss…. .
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The committee would love nothing more than to get USC and the west coast audience into the CFP. If USC wins out and TCU loses, they are in, period.
 
#135
#135
sami said:
The committee would love nothing more than to get USC and the west coast audience into the CFP. If USC wins out and TCU loses, they are in, period.
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Then why is that committee ranking usc so low right now?

Fact is we were seen as the best undefeated team when they started the rankings. We are still the best 1-loss team in their rankings. That won't change
 
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#137
#137
sami said:
The committee would love nothing more than to get USC and the west coast audience into the CFP. If USC wins out and TCU loses, they are in, period.
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If that was the case LSU with 2 losses and chance to be a conference champ would not be in front of 1 loss USC.
 
#138
#138
utvolpj said:
Then why is that committee ranking usc so low right now?

Fact is we were seen as the best undefeated team when they started the rankings. We are still the best 1-loss team in their rankings. That won't change
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LSU getting the #7 spot after beating Bama was very interesting since Oregon was the only team to jump... Meanwhile USC moved up 1 spot.
 
#139
#139
I found it hard to watch that Texas-TCU game as I was totally unimpressed with both teams. We would stomp TCU in the ground! Will be surprised if Baylor is good enough to beat them but the Texas team last night was a total joke. Seemed like their only hope was to have actually blocked one of the punts they got called for roughing the punter and running it in for a TD. Their offense was horrible! However this finally breaks for the Vols I'll be very happy with an 11-1 record!
 
#140
#140
Schasz said:
I found it hard to watch that Texas-TCU game as I was totally unimpressed with both teams. We would stomp TCU in the ground! Will be surprised if Baylor is good enough to beat them but the Texas team last night was a total joke. Seemed like their only hope was to have actually blocked one of the punts they got called for roughing the punter and running it in for a TD. Their offense was horrible! However this finally breaks for the Vols I'll be very happy with an 11-1 record!
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UGA vs TCU in the Semifinal will legit be a blowout.
 
#141
#141
utvolpj said:
Then why is that committee ranking usc so low right now?

Fact is we were seen as the best undefeated team when they started the rankings. We are still the best 1-loss team in their rankings. That won't change
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They're #8 right now. With Oregon losing they're guaranteed to move up at least one spot. The tell will be if the committee jumps then over LSU to #6 this week. If they beat the tar out of UCLA and ND and then win the Pac 12 against what could be a top 10 Oregon or Utah then I could see them possibly jumping up to #4 in the final ranking. However, there is nothing that UCLA and ND would want more from this season than screwing USC out of a playoff spot.

Regardless, I think the probability of TCU and/or USC taking a loss is pretty good so I'm not terribly concerned about it. USC moreso than TCU because I'm not convinced that USC is as good as their ranking and I think they're soft, so if ND plays them the same way they played Clemson then that should be the end of it.
 
#142
#142
hillsborovol said:
The committee REALLY values teams with less than 2 losses. There has NEVER been a 2-loss team in the gang of 4.

If they value conference champions so much, how did Alabama get in the CFP in 2017? They didn't win, nor even play, in the SEC Championship game. Alabama won the National Championship that year too.
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Alabama got in because their only loss was to 11-1 Auburn, not to a team with at least 2 losses in LSU and Alabama.
 
#143
#143
2EastTnVols said:
We blew out LSU on their own field, and then they nearly lost to a 5-5 arky team playing their 3 qb. My head says no way the committee puts LSU in over us, but my bvs is trying to bubble to the surface. Must....fight...it
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I don't think LSU gets in either way. Their struggle with Arkansas was not good.
 
#144
#144
JMSqb11 said:
I think Rece Davis thinks there is no scenario where the SEC gets 3 teams in the playoff.... Oregon losing means 3 SEC teams will be in the Top 6 now... A TCU loss means 3 SEC teams will be in the Top 5... Michigan and Ohio State play each other and will have a winner and loser that should drop out of the top 4 which means 3 SEC teams will be in the Top 4 going into final weekend with 2 of them set to play each other.

People want to talk about a 12-1 USC team, but LSU is ranked ahead and sort of blocks them out from any playoff talk.. Say TCU goes 13-0, LSU goes 11-2, and USC goes 12-1... USC ain't jumping an 11-2 LSU. USC's chances at the playoff improve if LSU drops the game in Atlanta.

Regardless, I don't think guys like Rece and gulag gang are expecting TCU to lose a game. TCU losing a game would inject chaos into the CFP and football world.
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I don’t think anyone was asking for or expecting three SEC teams in the final four. I couldn’t envision a scenario of that happening either. Tennessee should be in the drivers seat of 1 loss teams nationwide.
 
#145
#145
keepitreal2022 said:
I don't think LSU gets in either way. Their struggle with Arkansas was not good.
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People want drama. Bama and Clemson losing, followed by Oregon losing means LSU moves up the rankings. While the win vs Arky was not sexy as thrashing a 1 win Colorado team, the takeaway is both team took care of business while LSU locked up their division title... The headline of LSU locking up the SEC West is bigger deal than them winning by 3 vs Arkansas. Does nothing to drop them in the rankings just because they had low scoring game and the team behind them beat a 1 win team.
 
#146
#146
Winchester73 said:
I think the committee wants us IN … they know one of the teams ahead of us will lose and they left us at 5 … I think win out and were in …. but we need to continue to blow out the competition in these last 2. I don’t see how they can leave us out with our SOS.
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Here is the problem - No one cares anymore about how many points we score because we failed to do it on the biggest stage. The people outside of Volnation think our team scoring is all gimmicky because we didn't show up for UGA. Not only did we not show up, we got blown out. That's my point in saying we may not get in.

Yes, we need to continue to win out, but blowing out teams (sisters of the poor) is not as appealing anymore. The media, and yes they do influence the committee, and the college football audience feels we can't do it against better opponents.
 
#147
#147
Fightmaker said:
I don’t think anyone was asking for or expecting three SEC teams in the final four. I couldn’t envision a scenario of that happening either. Tennessee should be in the drivers seat of 1 loss teams nationwide.
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Tennessee is going to the playoff as long as we finish 11-1. UGA is in at 13-0 or 12-1, Atlanta result means nothing to them. Winner of Ohio State / Michigan is in the playoff. So the final spot is TCU's as long as they go 13-0. They drop a game, they are toast. So then the final spot comes down to LSU if they finish 11-2. If they lose in Atlanta, final spot is down to a 1 loss PAC12 champ or 11-1 Ohio State/Michigan loser.

There are really only 7 teams competing for the playoff spots now and 4 of them set to play each other in the final 2 weeks.
 
#148
#148
JMSqb11 said:
Tennessee is going to the playoff as long as we finish 11-1. UGA is in at 13-0 or 12-1, Atlanta result means nothing to them. Winner of Ohio State / Michigan is in the playoff. So the final spot is TCU's as long as they go 13-0. They drop a game, they are toast. So then the final spot comes down to LSU if they finish 11-2. If they lose in Atlanta, final spot is down to a 1 loss PAC12 champ or 11-1 Ohio State/Michigan loser.

There are really only 7 teams competing for the playoff spots now and 4 of them set to play each other in the final 2 weeks.
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They take a 1 loss Michigan/Ohio state over a two loss anybody. I don’t like their schedules/performances either, but that would be the only fair way to handle it.
 
#149
#149
Three more weeks folks - lots can happen between then and now. TN just needs to win and win as impressive as they can. The number of teams in the discussion will change each week and dwindle - as long as we are in the discussion and at least at 5, I like the chances.
 
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#150
#150
Fightmaker said:
They take a 1 loss Michigan/Ohio state over a two loss anybody. I don’t like their schedules/performances either, but that would be the only fair way to handle it.
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There is no way a 1 loss Michigan would get in over an 11-2 LSU that is fresh off winning the SEC over the #1 ranked team.

The loser of the Ohio State Michigan game is likely to drop to #6 spot.

Rankings before The Big Game:

  1. UGA
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan
  4. Tennessee
  5. TCU
  6. LSU

Rankings after The Big Game assuming Ohio State wins:
  1. UGA
  2. Ohio State
  3. Tennessee
  4. TCU
  5. LSU
  6. Michigan
 
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