If we go 4 - 8 do we fire Butch? (merged)

[sjt18]

6-7 wins again. Progress won't show in the record until year 3. I think its asinine to make 6 wins in year one the now or never mark.

I think it is asinine to believe that a coach that cannot take UT's roster this year and beat AP, USA, WKU, Vandy, Mizzou, and UK plus someone else is an "elite", top shelf coach capable of winning championships at UT.

Pragmatically, 6 wins this year plus 4-6 next year will put Jones squarely on a hot seat in 2015. We've seen that before. I simply believe the odds of his survival after year 3 drop significantly with six or fewer wins this year. People will turn on him just like they did Dooley.

Saban only won 6 at Alabubber in his first year there.

And iirc, he won 8 at LSU his first year. Sumlin won 11 (?) at TAM last year. Richt won 8 at UGA his first year. Spurrier inherited a bad situation at USCe and won 7 in an 11 game season... 9 at UF... 5 at Duke for heaven's sake. Muschamp and Dooley (neither of whom I believe to be very good coaches) won 6.

So are we really saying that "average" is good enough or some kind of evidence that he will become great later?

I It's the exact same situation also. They had a mishap of hirings since Stallings, but Saban had a roster that resembles an SEC team. Jones has a bottom barrel SEC team, he has to recast and remold.

And that simply is not true. He has a talented experienced OL. He has a good first but not deep front 7 on D. He has talent at every position but some thin spots. Perhaps even more importantly, Saban inherited a whole sleugh of problem children and off the field distractions.

Now there won't be much but youth in '14. But this roster has talent and experience.

That's the one and only thing we disagree about. You think we have more talent than I do, for this is perception. It's in the eye of the beholder. I can't argue anymore about that, but this is never an end-all unless he wins less than 5 games. 6 games is a neutral for me, because this is Doofus' team.

That's not all we disagree on. I believe that the "right" coach when UT finds him will be a guy who coaches a roster to be greater than the sum of its parts. The sum of the parts of this roster may be a six win team as you believe. An elite coach will win more than six.

 

[1972 Grad]

Why does Manziel get the credit? This time last year, hardly anyone knew who he was and he had not even won the starting job yet. But this time last year, pretty much anyone who followed college football knew who Sumlin was. They knew he had taken Houston to a top 5 national ranking and guided Case Keenum to becoming the NCAA's all time leader in total passing yard, touchdowns, and completions. So why would one assume Manziel is more of the factor in A&M's turnaround, rather than the guy who had previous proven college success?

Do you not think that Manziel is worth any points in a close game? Texas A&M was in a bunch of close games in both 2011 and 2012. For whatever reason, they won them in 2012 and lost them in 2011.

Sumlin's 4 year record at Houston wasn't as good as his predecessor's 2 previous years. Art Briles, former Houston coach (now Baylor coach) had Houston's program in good shape when Sumlin took over. Sumlin had one great year, one terrible year, and two decent years at Houston.

 

[sjt18]

Manziel is a very good QB with special abilities. Sumlin is an excellent coach who happens to be black and now has a big time program to sell in one of the 4 most talent rich states in the country.

I don't think Sumlin is going to do poorly.

 

[oregonvol]

Do you not think that Manziel is worth any points in a close game? Texas A&M was in a bunch of close games in both 2011 and 2012. For whatever reason, they won them in 2012 and lost them in 2011.

Sumlin's 4 year record at Houston wasn't as good as his predecessor's 2 previous years. Art Briles, former Houston coach (now Baylor coach) had Houston's program in good shape when Sumlin took over. Sumlin had one great year, one terrible year, and two decent years at Houston.

So a 10 win season only counts as "decent" at Houston? Really?

What do you mean Sumlin's "4 year record" isn't as good as Briles' "previous 2 years"? That's such an odd criteria. 2 vs. 4? What? I guess that's your way of trying to make the numbers work. Sumlin won as many games in his first 2 years at Houston as Briles won in his last 2 years. And Sumlin's winning percentage was better over his tenure compared to Briles' winning percentage over his tenure. And Briles never won 12 games or finished in the top 25, as Sumlin did in his final year at Houston.

And yeah, Manziel was a major factor last year, just like Case Keenum was a major factor on Sumlin's Houston teams. I don't know of many coaches who win games where players don't factor in. Al Wilson was a factor in 1998, but does that mean he deserves credit instead of Fulmer?

 

[sjt18]

Al Wilson was a factor in 1998, but does that mean he deserves credit instead of Fulmer?

Maybe...

 

[1972 Grad]

So a 10 win season only counts as "decent" at Houston? Really?

What do you mean Sumlin's "4 year record" isn't as good as Briles' "previous 2 years"? That's such an odd criteria. 2 vs. 4? What? I guess that's your way of trying to make the numbers work. Sumlin won as many games in his first 2 years at Houston as Briles won in his last 2 years. And Sumlin's winning percentage was better over his tenure compared to Briles' winning percentage over his tenure. And Briles never won 12 games or finished in the top 25, as Sumlin did in his final year at Houston.

And yeah, Manziel was a major factor last year, just like Case Keenum was a major factor on Sumlin's Houston teams. I don't know of many coaches who win games where players don't factor in. Al Wilson was a factor in 1998, but does that mean he deserves credit instead of Fulmer?

I listed Briles' last 2 years to show what shape the program was in when Sumlin took over. I listed all 4 of Sumlin's years because he took over a program in great shape. I didn't list Briles' previous years because he was rebuilding , and it's not fair to compare the records when rebuilding a program with those maintaining a program.

Remember, both Terry Bowden and Gene Chizik had undefeated seasons at Auburn. It is entirely possible for a good, but not great coach have everything go right for one season, and go undefeated. That does not make him a great coach. Sumlin may be considered one at some point, but his career is still in its infancy, and he has never walked into a bad situation.

 

[1972 Grad]

Manziel is a very good QB with special abilities. Sumlin is an excellent coach who happens to be black and now has a big time program to sell in one of the 4 most talent rich states in the country.

I don't think Sumlin is going to do poorly.

What does his race have to do with this discussion?

 

[Oskie Volum]

So a 10 win season only counts as "decent" at Houston? Really?

What do you mean Sumlin's "4 year record" isn't as good as Briles' "previous 2 years"? That's such an odd criteria. 2 vs. 4? What? I guess that's your way of trying to make the numbers work. Sumlin won as many games in his first 2 years at Houston as Briles won in his last 2 years. And Sumlin's winning percentage was better over his tenure compared to Briles' winning percentage over his tenure. And Briles never won 12 games or finished in the top 25, as Sumlin did in his final year at Houston.

And yeah, Manziel was a major factor last year, just like Case Keenum was a major factor on Sumlin's Houston teams. I don't know of many coaches who win games where players don't factor in. Al Wilson was a factor in 1998, but does that mean he deserves credit instead of Fulmer?

Houston was 8-26 under Dana Dimel (coach before Briles)

Briles at Houston:
2003 7-6
2004 3-8
2005 6-6 (solid amount of rebuilding time)
2006 10-4
2007 8-4 (left for Baylor Nov 07)(also Keenum was the C-USA Freshman of the YEAR in 07, so Sumlin inherited another star QB)

At Baylor:

2008: 4-8
2009: 4-8
2011: 10-3
2012: 8-5

Total 67-58

Briles brought in Keenum and Griffin.

Like I and others have tried to describe before, Briles is a rebuilder (like Dooley) and Sumlin is a maintainer (like CBJ). Rebuilders need more time, and the w/l record isn't the best measuring stick when they haven't had enough time to rebuild.
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[Burger]

Houston was 8-26 under Dana Dimel (coach before Briles)

Briles at Houston:
2003 7-6
2004 3-8
2005 6-6 (solid amount of rebuilding time)
2006 10-4
2007 8-4 (left for Baylor Nov 07)(also Keenum was the C-USA Freshman of the YEAR in 07, so Sumlin inherited another star QB)

At Baylor:

2008: 4-8
2009: 4-8
2011: 10-3
2012: 8-5

Total 67-58

Briles brought in Keenum and Griffin.

Like I and others have tried to describe before, Briles is a rebuilder (like Dooley) and Sumlin is a maintainer (like CBJ). Rebuilders need more time, and the w/l record isn't the best measuring stick when they haven't had enough time to rebuild.
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Jones had to rebuild cincy after Kelly left him without any line depth.

 

[KBVol]

Houston was 8-26 under Dana Dimel (coach before Briles)

Briles at Houston:
2003 7-6
2004 3-8
2005 6-6 (solid amount of rebuilding time)
2006 10-4
2007 8-4 (left for Baylor Nov 07)(also Keenum was the C-USA Freshman of the YEAR in 07, so Sumlin inherited another star QB)

At Baylor:

2008: 4-8
2009: 4-8
2011: 10-3
2012: 8-5

Total 67-58

Briles brought in Keenum and Griffin.

Like I and others have tried to describe before, Briles is a rebuilder (like Dooley) and Sumlin is a maintainer (like CBJ). Rebuilders need more time, and the w/l record isn't the best measuring stick when they haven't had enough time to rebuild.
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CBJ took over a Cincinnati team that had lost a ton of starters/talent his first year.... as a result he went 4-8. After that his next 2 teams won 10 games. Qualifies him as a rebuilder, maintainer and .... a winner.

 

[1972 Grad]

Houston was 8-26 under Dana Dimel (coach before Briles)

Briles at Houston:
2003 7-6
2004 3-8
2005 6-6 (solid amount of rebuilding time)
2006 10-4
2007 8-4 (left for Baylor Nov 07)(also Keenum was the C-USA Freshman of the YEAR in 07, so Sumlin inherited another star QB)

At Baylor:

2008: 4-8
2009: 4-8
2011: 10-3
2012: 8-5

Total 67-58

Briles brought in Keenum and Griffin.

Like I and others have tried to describe before, Briles is a rebuilder (like Dooley) and Sumlin is a maintainer (like CBJ). Rebuilders need more time, and the w/l record isn't the best measuring stick when they haven't had enough time to rebuild.
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Statistics are really hard to refute, huh?

 

[Oskie Volum]

Statistics are really hard to refute, huh?

Right?!?! Yet they still try and thier responses still show they dont get it. Building the team up is totally different than bldg or rebuilding the entire AD and program from nothing or shambles. Rebuilding OL depth etc is nowhere near rebuilding EVERY position or dealing with a dumpster fire of a program. That's just deciding what granite color to go with, and negotiating the best rate for it and the installation. Cake walk compared to digging the foundation or fixing it, and all the rest that needs to be done to build the house so u can make that "tough" decision on the counter tops.

Just baffles me...

 

[sjt18]

What does his race have to do with this discussion?

It should not have anything to do with it but realistically it does.

 

[UTVOLS107]

I should have never opened this thread..

 

[tm3]

How many SEC coaches had 4 (or less) wins in their first year, and then eventually won an SEC championship?

I'll hang up and listen ......

 

[butchna]

I wish I could go back to bed, but I'm working....so
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[oregonvol]

I listed Briles' last 2 years to show what shape the program was in when Sumlin took over. I listed all 4 of Sumlin's years because he took over a program in great shape. I didn't list Briles' previous years because he was rebuilding , and it's not fair to compare the records when rebuilding a program with those maintaining a program.

Remember, both Terry Bowden and Gene Chizik had undefeated seasons at Auburn. It is entirely possible for a good, but not great coach have everything go right for one season, and go undefeated. That does not make him a great coach. Sumlin may be considered one at some point, but his career is still in its infancy, and he has never walked into a bad situation.

Well according to your previously stated criteria (that Sumlin's 10 win season at Houston only counts as a "decent season"), Briles never had better than a decent season at Houston. So Sumlin was responsible for Houston's only great season in its history (or at least in 30 years. I'm still foggy on whether you would classify 11 wins as just "decent" or not). I'd say that's a bit more than just maintaining the program.

And Sumlin's had more than just one season where everything went right for him. Last year, he took over a team that won 7 games in an easier conference, took them into the SEC and came out of it with 11 wins. But that was just luck too right? He just lucked into those 2 great seasons, right? That's one lucky guy, to luck into 2 great seasons in 5 years as a HC. But it couldn't possibly be that he's actually good at what he does, right?

 

[oregonvol]

Statistics are really hard to refute, huh?

You know what? You're right...

UT before Dooley

2007 10-4
2008 5-7
2009 7-6

UT with Dooley

2010 6-7
2011 5-7
2012 4-7 (1-0 with HC Cheney)

...There, now I've refuted your and Oskie's chief reason for being on this board. Goodbye.

 

[1972 Grad]

You know what? You're right...

UT before Dooley

2007 10-4
2008 5-7
2009 7-6

UT with Dooley

2010 6-7
2011 5-7
2012 4-7 (1-0 with HC Cheney)

...There, now I've refuted your and Oskie's chief reason for being on this board. Goodbye.

You are right. I can't argue with stats. The 2 years prior to Dooley's arrival , Tenn's record was 12-13. I use 2 years with Tenn, just as I used the previous 2 years of Art Briles at Houston. I think that gives a fair assessment of where the program is .

So Dooley continued the losing record that we had, just as Sumlin continued the winning record that Briles had. They both maintained what happened the previous 2 years.

Your main reason for being on here left town and went to Dallas if you haven't heard. You are beating a dead horse. Dooley is no longer here.

 

[1972 Grad]

Well according to your previously stated criteria (that Sumlin's 10 win season at Houston only counts as a "decent season"), Briles never had better than a decent season at Houston. So Sumlin was responsible for Houston's only great season in its history (or at least in 30 years. I'm still foggy on whether you would classify 11 wins as just "decent" or not). I'd say that's a bit more than just maintaining the program.

And Sumlin's had more than just one season where everything went right for him. Last year, he took over a team that won 7 games in an easier conference, took them into the SEC and came out of it with 11 wins. But that was just luck too right? He just lucked into those 2 great seasons, right? That's one lucky guy, to luck into 2 great seasons in 5 years as a HC. But it couldn't possibly be that he's actually good at what he does, right?

A ten win season is an accomplishment, but I am not as much in awe of it as you are. After all, they played 14 games, and lost 4 times , including 3 of their last 5 to Central Florida, East Carolina, and to Air Force by 27. Good, but far from great season.

 

[oregonvol]

You are right. I can't argue with stats. The 2 years prior to Dooley's arrival , Tenn's record was 12-13. I use 2 years with Tenn, just as I used the previous 2 years of Art Briles at Houston. I think that gives a fair assessment of where the program is .

So Dooley continued the losing record that we had, just as Sumlin continued the winning record that Briles had. They both maintained what happened the previous 2 years.

Dooley didn't maintain anything. Even going by your arbitrary "2 year" rule (which, let's be honest, is just your best effort at making the numbers work in your favor), Dooley's winning percentage dropped even lower than what preceded him. So I guess you are now willing to admit that Dooley didn't rebuild anything, he didn't maintain anything, he made the program worse the longer he was here, right? Go on, I'm all ears...

 

[1972 Grad]

Dooley didn't maintain anything. Even going by your arbitrary "2 year" rule (which, let's be honest, is just your best effort at making the numbers work in your favor), Dooley's winning percentage dropped even lower than what preceded him. So I guess you are now willing to admit that Dooley didn't rebuild anything, he didn't maintain anything, he made the program worse the longer he was here, right? Go on, I'm all ears...

I am not a Dooley lover, but I don't understand the hate. I think that he improved the program's basic structure while he was here, but didn't show what I was hoping for on the field. Last year would have been about an 8 or 9 win season, if the defensive shakeup had not occurred. Dooley may be totally responsible for everyone leaving. The staff may have decided that Dooley had thrown in the towel, so they needed to flee the sinking ship.

There was an inner dynamic on the team that was poison, and I am glad that it's over. The relationship between Dooley and Bray certainly didn't help matters. Bray's attitude sucked, as did Dooley's. I think that both are front runners, and that had we won a few more games, the situation would have taken care of itself.

I try my best to put myself in other people's shoes, before I judge them too harshly. Dooley had nearly an impossible situation in which to succeed. Was he the best man for the job? Maybe not, but I'll bet you that 8 or 9 of 10 coaches hired would be leaving this program now, just like Dooley. I don't think that he set us back any.

 

[Pompey]

....I definitely think we should fire a football coach every two or three years until no one would seriously look at taking the job.
Also firing a coach before he is given an opportunity to repair a badly broken program would be more in line with the level of sophistication of the UT fan base.....so by all means fire away...!

 

[Oskie Volum]

You know what? You're right...

UT before Dooley

2007 10-4
2008 5-7
2009 7-6

UT with Dooley

2010 6-7
2011 5-7
2012 4-7 (1-0 with HC Cheney)

...There, now I've refuted your and Oskie's chief reason for being on this board. Goodbye.

Ahhhh the mature "u r not a true fan if u don't agree with me" argument. Nice job brah!!!

Do u not comprehend the concept of "it gets harder before it gets better" or "take 2 steps back to take strides forward"??? When u r rebuilding u need to fix issues and it sets u back. Maintainers aren't Innovators/Rebuilders. So it's tough to understand if u don't have that mindset naturally. When u go into a biz to rebuild cause it's losing money u end up having to spend money to try to level it out. U aren't going to show a profit right away, but doesn't mean u aren't doing a good job of cleaning it up. There are other factors that need to be used as the measuring stick. Some are harder than others to see as well.

I've said before that I've realized this site is full of "employees" with few "managers/owners". Employees sit around complaining about how they'd do this or do that better, but don't have a clue of why things r done a certain way or what the true goals are for the company.
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[Burger]

Ahhhh the mature "u r not a true fan if u don't agree with me" argument. Nice job brah!!!

Do u not comprehend the concept of "it gets harder before it gets better" or "take 2 steps back to take strides forward"??? When u r rebuilding u need to fix issues and it sets u back. Maintainers aren't Innovators/Rebuilders. So it's tough to understand if u don't have that mindset naturally. When u go into a biz to rebuild cause it's losing money u end up having to spend money to try to level it out. U aren't going to show a profit right away, but doesn't mean u aren't doing a good job of cleaning it up. There are other factors that need to be used as the measuring stick. Some are harder than others to see as well.

I've said before that I've realized this site is full of "employees" with few "managers/owners". Employees sit around complaining about how they'd do this or do that better, but don't have a clue of why things r done a certain way or what the true goals are for the company.
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Dooley went more backwards than forwards on the field. You have to show progress if you want to keep your position. The only progress he showed was that there are a lot less arrest. The VFL program got recreated by Butch because it was a mess. His employees hated him hence the mass exodus of 2011. He got fired because his defensive coordinator is a dimwit. His players actively resisted him the whole way because he didn't connect with anyone. He failed in almost every aspect of his job. He did a mediocre job at bringing talent. His method didn't work. Why defend a failure? Jones has to again try to rebuild the program because Dooley failed to. That's how it is.