If we go 4 - 8 do we fire Butch? (merged)

Worley has more real game experience than most new starting QB's. WR has little experience but it is also one of the two positions where experience matters least. The other being RB. Worley is the likely starter and has SEC starts as a Fr on a team with almost no running game and only one good WR. He's been in the fire. If he's not the starter then that's a pretty good indication that whoever beat him out is a pretty good QB.

Together they ran for 1300 yds last season averaging about 5 ypc in a pass first O. Neal avg'd about 4.5 ypc vs the SEC. Lane 4.97.

These guys need to be coached. They had legit talent coming out of HS and neither has suffered an injury that should have changed that.

Coaching and scheme. It is amazing that guys like Smith, Miller, and Walls can be highly acclaimed and wanted by everyone but then struggle like they have. Is it really possible that UT gets all overrated guys?

If Franklin can get Vandy's D with LESS talent from last to 6th to 4th then the RIGHT coach at UT can get these guys to at least mid-pack.

Honest question. Has Maggitt had a serious injury other than the knee?

You forgot Brewer. I honestly don't look for Maggitt to beat out either Sapp or Brewer. And Sapp isn't all that unproven. He got "real" reps last year and player fast when he was in.

There are back ups at MLB but I have no idea what would happen at OLB. Starters vs the schedule? Better than Vandy, UK, Mizzou, USA, WKU, APSU... that's six "should wins" if Jones is the right guy. A loss against any of those teams IMO would be as bad or nearly as bad as Dooley's UK loss. Vandy's record looked good last year but they really didn't beat anyone significant. The combined records of the FBS teams they played was 37-60. They weren't nearly as good as their record.

I am not impressed with what USCe has coming back. I think UT's roster is at least as good as theirs if not better. The quality of their depth is likely no better than UT's either.

Auburn is more talented but beatable IMO.

Oregon lost quite a bit and is also changhing coaches (detailed in another thread). Jones has the players to beat them if he's the right guy.

UF, UGA, and Bama are more talented. It would take a special effort and coaching job to beat any of them.


I think you guys keep missing what I am saying. UT does not need an "average" coach. They need an elite coach if they are ever going to get back to the top and compete with Saban et al. This does not look like a team that can compete for the East. It also is not a roster that has only six wins in it IF JONES IS THE RIGHT GUY. The right guy will have the roster perform at a higher level than the sum of its parts.

We'll never agree on our talent level just because of perception. Our problem is other teams have had their system in place for awhile. We just started in putting in the new one while correcting mistakes. Most of our players played below their star ratings under Dooley.
The right guy never has his parts until year 2 atleast. Were going to lose a surprise game because its Butch's first year. Saban got beat by ULM. An 8 win season would be almost miracle working.
 
I love all this talk about giving time based on putting a system in place as if that time was given to Dooley. Takes time to do so from scratch I understand but acting as if this fanbase allows for it is just ridiculous. I agree with SJT, in the sense that if CBJ "gets it" like everyone thinks he does then he should have 7+ wins this season with the squad he inherited. If he is in the 4-6 range than we have problems into the future. I understand we currently have a great looking recruiting class but a 4-6 season would not help when coaches start to poach the commits harder. Heck KY has a great class too...so far. They have an better chance to keep players goes Stoops is selling nothing to these kids and doing it well.

Like I said before if we only win 4 games this season, which is a possibility, that will be WAY worse than losing to KY. This fanbase will not allow for it to happen, no matter how much some will try to simmer it down. Trust me.

Also, there was a comment about "looking to see if the team plays 4 qtrs". I know many had their "gruden glasses" on last season, but that team played hard for 4 qtrs majority of the season. Vandy game was a special exception due to it was the final nail in the coffin Bray could administer, but up to that pt this kids played hard on both sides of the ball. People need to see that distinction from 2011 and 2012.
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I love all this talk about giving time based on putting a system in place as if that time was given to Dooley. Takes time to do so from scratch I understand but acting as if this fanbase allows for it is just ridiculous. I agree with SJT, in the sense that if CBJ "gets it" like everyone thinks he does then he should have 7+ wins this season with the squad he inherited. If he is in the 4-6 range than we have problems into the future. I understand we currently have a great looking recruiting class but a 4-6 season would not help when coaches start to poach the commits harder. Heck KY has a great class too...so far. They have an better chance to keep players goes Stoops is selling nothing to these kids and doing it well.
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7 wins plus a bowl win, recruiting class top 10 nationally and top 5 SEC, and CBJ might be on the way to glory at UT.

6 wins or less, top 30 class, then let's all get excited about maybe going to the Music City bowl every other year or so. And keep renewing season tickets so that we can watch the Pride of the Southland.
 
We'll never agree on our talent level just because of perception. Our problem is other teams have had their system in place for awhile. We just started in putting in the new one while correcting mistakes. Most of our players played below their star ratings under Dooley.
The right guy never has his parts until year 2 atleast. Were going to lose a surprise game because its Butch's first year. Saban got beat by ULM. An 8 win season would be almost miracle working.

That isn't even CLOSE to being true. Sumlin replaced a guy who was successful in the NFL... and turned it around on a dime. Kelly turned things around with players left to him. So did the guy at Michigan.

There are advantages to having a new system that your opponents have not seen that roughly balance out the disadvantages... if this staff can coach.

So maybe you will answer the question though. If six wins is a masterful job this year with a team having many talented Sr's then what's good enough next year when the whole OL will be replaced, much of the DL, possibly the 1st 4 LB's...? Four? Five?

The schedule isn't getting easier. Oregon is replaced by OU.
 
7 wins plus a bowl win, recruiting class top 10 nationally and top 5 SEC, and CBJ might be on the way to glory at UT.

6 wins or less, top 30 class, then let's all get excited about maybe going to the Music City bowl every other year or so. And keep renewing season tickets so that we can watch the Pride of the Southland.

That's a change of tone. You've been arguing with me for saying basically that same thing for awhile now.

To me, the test of any coach UT hires is proof that he can beat who he is supposed to beat then step up and outcoach someone... that he can beat someone he shouldn't have beaten. I see no reason to change that standard just because Dooley failed so badly at it.

BTW, UT doesn't need one top 10 class. They need to string them together. There will always be attrition. There will always be overrated players. Dooley avg'd what? 14? And it wasn't good enough for him to save his job or to not leave some holes that have to be filled by Jones.
 
Really? Disagreeing with you is a statement about my "football IQ"? I am not even sure how to challenge such an idiotic comment except to say that I consistently point to facts and logic when making my arguments. You haven't.

Correct, you are using logic. Logic that I would expect from a fan, but not from someone who evaluates players and schemes.
Nope. Players and schemes come down to coaching. The change from Chaney's version of the west coast to Jones' version of the spread with west coast elements isn't like going from the run and shoot to the wishbone. The players he inherits on D are actually better suited for the 4-3 base than the 3-4 base.

FWIW, you look at his recruiting and he's taking commits from OL's that are pretty similar to what was left to him minus 4 years of S&C.

Hince, is why I said, you appear to have a low football IQ.
Disagreeing with you O Wise One does not prove someone lacks any kind of IQ. Do you realize how absolutely arrogant and vain your insenuation is?

Anyone who is pre-judging a first year coach based SOLEY on wins and losses fits into this category IMO.
And.... I am not. I am holding him to a standard. If I were judging solely on wins and losses then the expectations I express would be HIGHER. IF he coaches this team to its ability and IF he is the X's and O's guy we hope he is and IF he knows how to get a team ready to play then there are 6 teams on this schedule that he SHOULD beat. Then.... if he's the elite coach UT needs there should be a game where UT wins BECAUSE HE OUTCOACHES the other guy.

Unless, as I said before, Jones totally stinks it up (Let's say 4-8 because you obviously want me to throw out a number).
Not really. I want your number for year two... and year three. If six is "great" this year with a team loaded with talented veterans who WERE in a O system nowhere near as different from Jones' system as Brian Kelly's was from Weis'... then what's acceptable next year when he will depend on far more new players?

Bama is not built for a Chip Kelly style offense and their QB, OL, and running backs would stink it up.
Ummmmm, neither was ND built for Brian Kelly. In fact, that's a fairly similar comparison to Chip Kelly and Bama's roster.

B Kelly vs a difficult schedule with a team that was not recruited to run his system went 8-5 with a bowl win. I'd see that as a good sign if Jones accomplished it this fall. In fact, the team he just took to the NC game still relied on many of those players.

You can also look at Sumlin. His system is VERY different from Sherman's... He had big holes to fill notably at WR outside of Swope.

He would fail in his first year,,, but make personel adjustments and get better with each year. Also by your logic, Gene Chezic should still be at Auburn looking to win his third national championship.
Ummm, no. That makes absolutely no sense at all and bears no relationship to anything I've written.

I hope this helps explain why I think your logic is off just a tad. If not, I guess I would make a pretty poor teacher. BTW, I just want to end this argument by saying. I am sorry for using the words "Low footbal IQ"... and I love you.:biggrin:
Love you too. In the end... its all just banter over opinions of what we think will happen. My "low football IQ" accurately predicted that Dooley had much less than 50% chance of surviving longer than 3 years even if he were a very good coach. The challenges were too big even for a great coach to do much the first two years.

Jones first year roster is miles ahead of what Dooley's was... and Dooley, who can't coach, won 6 games against a schedule that was just as tough. SO.... better coach+better roster+equal schedule... should equal more than 6 games won. I personally do not like the coaching carousel. I would love to see Jones be "the guy". I don't want to suffer through another period like we had during the last few years of Fulmer and then under Dooley. But refusing to see what "better" looks like from Jones won't help us avoid it if all the current excitement does not turn into wins.
 
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I think if you look at Kentucky it shows just how valuable playing time in the SEC can be sold for... they're basically doing as well as Tennessee at recruiting and are the worst in the SEC without even tradition to back them up. Bottom line is it seems like if you're selling the right stuff, recruits will come... what really matters is what happens on the field in the fall that determines Butch's success.

I think we beat: Austin Peay, Western KY, South Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri

Up in the air: Vandy, Auburn

Butch is king if we beat the previous 6-7 plus one of the following: South Carolina, Oregon, Georgia, Florida

We'll get em next year: Alabama...

I'd be happy with a 7 win season but accept a 5-win season as not the end of the world. He wins just 4 and I'll probably feel a lot less excited about Butch.
 
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Nope. Players and schemes come down to coaching. The change from Chaney's version of the west coast to Jones' version of the spread with west coast elements isn't like going from the run and shoot to the wishbone. The players he inherits on D are actually better suited for the 4-3 base than the 3-4 base.

FWIW, you look at his recruiting and he's taking commits from OL's that are pretty similar to what was left to him minus 4 years of S&C.

Disagreeing with you O Wise One does not prove someone lacks any kind of IQ. Do you realize how absolutely arrogant and vain your insenuation is?

And.... I am not. I am holding him to a standard. If I were judging solely on wins and losses then the expectations I express would be HIGHER. IF he coaches this team to its ability and IF he is the X's and O's guy we hope he is and IF he knows how to get a team ready to play then there are 6 teams on this schedule that he SHOULD beat. Then.... if he's the elite coach UT needs there should be a game where UT wins BECAUSE HE OUTCOACHES the other guy.

Not really. I want your number for year two... and year three. If six is "great" this year with a team loaded with talented veterans who WERE in a O system nowhere near as different from Jones' system as Brian Kelly's was from Weis'... then what's acceptable next year when he will depend on far more new players?

Ummmmm, neither was ND built for Brian Kelly. In fact, that's a fairly similar comparison to Chip Kelly and Bama's roster.

B Kelly vs a difficult schedule with a team that was not recruited to run his system went 8-5 with a bowl win. I'd see that as a good sign if Jones accomplished it this fall. In fact, the team he just took to the NC game still relied on many of those players.

You can also look at Sumlin. His system is VERY different from Sherman's... He had big holes to fill notably at WR outside of Swope.

Ummm, no. That makes absolutely no sense at all and bears no relationship to anything I've written.

Love you too. In the end... its all just banter over opinions of what we think will happen. My "low football IQ" accurately predicted that Dooley had much less than 50% chance of surviving longer than 3 years even if he were a very good coach. The challenges were too big even for a great coach to do much the first two years.

Jones first year roster is miles ahead of what Dooley's was... and Dooley, who can't coach, won 6 games against a schedule that was just as tough. SO.... better coach+better roster+equal schedule... should equal more than 6 games won. I personally do not like the coaching carousel. I would love to see Jones be "the guy". I don't want to suffer through another period like we had during the last few years of Fulmer and then under Dooley. But refusing to see what "better" looks like from Jones won't help us avoid it if all the current excitement does not turn into wins.

To quote a line from Al Pacino from the Movie, Scent of a woman, "I'd show you, but I'm too old, I'm too tired, I'm too f-----' blind."

Good points bro. I think I wrote that a little intoxicated, so, I agree, I could have approached my argument with a little less arrogance and a little more respect for a fellow vol. My apologies. We will have to agree to disagree.

:mf_surrender:
 
Tennessee has never lost 8 games in a season. Some think this is not outside the realm of possibility in Coach Butch Jones's first year at the helm.

Do we fire Butch if he loses 8?

My personal feelings are he would have to be eating Dooley Wacky Bambacky to lose 8.

If we do lose 8 next year though, I think it is grounds to fire Hart (might as well include Cheek while we're at it), and the next's guys first job is to line up the next guy. CBJ have to win something special in Y2 to carry-on.

We let Dooley carry-on after the KY loss, and I think we all agree it was a huge, huge mistake.

This is the worst thread
 
That's a change of tone. You've been arguing with me for saying basically that same thing for awhile now.

No, I actually agree with MOST of what you say, including goals, process, etc.

I think where we disagree is that along with the above I believe there is a line in the sand for essentially all employees including coaches. If the line gets crossed, the eject button gets hit. I took that as the theme of this thread, ie should the line in the sand be drawn at 4-8.

And I absolutely concur with the necessity of ongoing recruiting success. In 2013, while he has the glow and excitement of newness and no losses, he has got to show that he can recruit in the top of the SEC, and then he has to keep doing it.
 
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Some of you guys are talking like Kevin Sumlin is the greatest coach ever. He may or may not be. What he is a very fortunate man that took over a program in good shape that lost a bunch of close games the previous year, plus he inherited a difference maker at QB.

In 2011, Texas A&M was 7-6. They lost 5 games by 4 or fewer points without Johnny Manziel as their QB. They lost to Okla. St. by 1, Arkansas with Petrino by 4, Missouri in O.T., Kansas St. in 4 O.T.s, and Texas by 2. With Manziel, they probably would have been 12-1, because he is worth a few points a game.

In 2012, under Sumlin, they were 11-2. They won 3 games by 5 points or less. Ole Miss by 3, La. Tech by 2 (59-57), and Alabama by 5. Without Manziel, they probably would have been 8-5. So, Manziel is the difference in the team, just like Cam Newton at Auburn. Sumlin may now get on a roll and recruit like mad, but he walked into a very favorable situation.

I think that the record would have been the same for A&M this past year with the former coach, and the same in 2011 if Sumlin had been the coach. Manziel knows how to make something happen to win a close game, unlike Tyler Bray.
 
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Some of you guys are talking like Kevin Sumlin is the greatest coach ever. He may or may not be. What he is a very fortunate man that took over a program in good shape that lost a bunch of close games the previous year, plus he inherited a difference maker at QB.

In 2011, Texas A&M was 7-6. They lost 5 games by 4 or fewer points without Johnny Manziel as their QB. They lost to Okla. St. by 1, Arkansas with Petrino by 4, Missouri in O.T., Kansas St. in 4 O.T.s, and Texas by 2. With Manziel, they probably would have been 12-1, because he is worth a few points a game.

In 2012, under Sumlin, they were 11-2. They won 3 games by 5 points or less. Ole Miss by 3, La. Tech by 2 (59-57), and Alabama by 5. Without Manziel, they probably would have been 8-5. So, Manziel is the difference in the team, just like Cam Newton at Auburn. Sumlin may now get on a roll and recruit like mad, but he walked into a very favorable situation.

I think that the record would have been the same for A&M this past year with the former coach, and the same in 2011 if Sumlin had been the coach. Manziel knows how to make something happen to win a close game, unlike Tyler Bray.

great analysis. sumlin would have been a vastly better hire than Fooley, but the jury is still out on whether he is really a world beater. he is in an incredibly fertile recruiting ground, and A&M is giving him all the resources.
 
I haven't acted like Sumlin was anything except a guy who took over an unsuccessful program with holes to fill and had a great season. I do suspect he will continue to have success though. He's a solid coach with great recruiting territory. Rightly or wrongly, some recruits may feel more comfortable with him because of his race also.

Sherman chose to RS Manziel. Either he wasn't ready... or that's an indication of why Sherman was fired.
 
7 wins plus a bowl win, recruiting class top 10 nationally and top 5 SEC, and CBJ might be on the way to glory at UT.

6 wins or less, top 30 class, then let's all get excited about maybe going to the Music City bowl every other year or so. And keep renewing season tickets so that we can watch the Pride of the Southland.

Exactly where I'm at on the next season and after. If we do have a great season though I still worry about fans getting ahead of themselves. Like auburn under chisik, and maybe where the Aggies might be this upcoming season. This season will be very telling for Hokes future at UM after dropping off after his first.

Now I don't agree on a post u made that Sumlin would have been better than Dooley. Sumlin is not a rebuilder. He takes over programs in good shape and rides their success. Doesn't even have the track record yet to say he can sustain the success, cause he's moved on before that. He does well this year with Manziel he'll get poached by the NFL and will leave cause Manziel will be gone. Can't take the chance of falling off the wave he is on. All imho of course...
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I haven't acted like Sumlin was anything except a guy who took over an unsuccessful program with holes to fill and had a great season. I do suspect he will continue to have success though. He's a solid coach with great recruiting territory. Rightly or wrongly, some recruits may feel more comfortable with him because of his race also.

Sherman chose to RS Manziel. Either he wasn't ready... or that's an indication of why Sherman was fired.
I would think that he redshirted Manziel because he had a senior qb (Ryan Tannehill), who was the number 8 pick in the first round of the draft. He now starts for the Miami Dolphins. Manziel is just a difference maker , even more so than a good solid pro qb.
 
I haven't acted like Sumlin was anything except a guy who took over an unsuccessful program with holes to fill and had a great season. I do suspect he will continue to have success though. He's a solid coach with great recruiting territory. Rightly or wrongly, some recruits may feel more comfortable with him because of his race also.

Sherman chose to RS Manziel. Either he wasn't ready... or that's an indication of why Sherman was fired.
It wasn't an unsuccessful program, but they did have a great season. It was a solid program that managed to lose 1 game by 1 point, one by 2 points, one by 4 points, one in one overtime, and one in 4 overtimes.

Sumlin also had a great last season at Houston. During the 2 years prior to Sumlin becoming Houston's coach, Art Briles compiled a regular season record of 18-7 (72% winning percentage). Sumlin's 4 year record was 34-16 (68% winning percentage)in the regular season.

I mean this guy may be the best coach ever, but I would be willing to bet that he would have struggled mightily at U.T. to have a winning record in the last 3 years.
 
I mean this guy may be the best coach ever, but I would be willing to bet that he would have struggled mightily at U.T. to have a winning record in the last 3 years.

There's no question about that. UT was going to struggle in '10 and '11 regardless of who the coach was. Three consecutive whole recruiting class busts assured that. Kiffin knew it. He even said something about it.

Dooley was a guy willing to risk his career rather than wait to see what happened at LT. He did alot of bleeding to leave the program better than he found it... but his chances of ever rising with the program were always very slim. He leaves it however in good enough shape for Jones to be successful if he's as good as we hope.
 
BTW, it wasn't one season that did Sherman in and a loss is a loss regardless of margin... when you've gone 25-25 in four seasons and are under .500 in a conference basically made up of two or 3 good programs and a bunch of also rans that belong better in the Sun Belt.
 
No,if we go 4-8 he may deserve a raise. It's going to be a very, very long season for the Vowels.
 
That isn't even CLOSE to being true. Sumlin replaced a guy who was successful in the NFL... and turned it around on a dime. Kelly turned things around with players left to him. So did the guy at Michigan.

There are advantages to having a new system that your opponents have not seen that roughly balance out the disadvantages... if this staff can coach.

So maybe you will answer the question though. If six wins is a masterful job this year with a team having many talented Sr's then what's good enough next year when the whole OL will be replaced, much of the DL, possibly the 1st 4 LB's...? Four? Five?

The schedule isn't getting easier. Oregon is replaced by OU.

Guys will emerge this year if given time. We will have an established starter at qb. If we play our cards right, we can get Posey, Kerbyson, and Crowder some experience. It won't be the first year of our system next year. I believe the fruits of Butch's labour will show next year, not this year.
 

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