Is it true all the money is coming in on Tennessee to cover, but they aren't moving the line?

[EastTNVol6240]

Vegas isn’t wearing the orange glasses. We are. What Vegas sees- a truly untested TN team against any team worth anything this year, a freshmen QB in his first appearance in a hostile environment at night in the SEC, a good OU defense, a UT OL that has allowed pressure from garbage teams, an untested UT secondary. Vegas usually wins for a reason. I think we win, but not by these silly astronomical numbers some posters are spewing.

 

[BADGER_VOL]

Vegas isn’t wearing the orange glasses. We are. What Vegas sees- a truly untested TN team against any team worth anything this year, a freshmen QB in his first appearance in a hostile environment at night in the SEC, a good OU defense, a UT OL that has allowed pressure from garbage teams, an untested UT secondary. Vegas usually wins for a reason. I think we win, but not by these silly astronomical numbers some posters are spewing.

Again I don’t know betting but what you’re saying is LV knew this (your quote) and swung the line to bate people to vote UT to cover because they knew all along they didn’t believe it? Thats how it works correct?

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Vegas doesn’t take sides, they take money.

They do. That's how they make the big bucks. They power rate teams based on perceived strength and then set the lines accordingly. Every now and then so much money will come in on one side that they'll move the line to hedge their bets. But there's only so much they'll move a line. At some point they'll trust their numbers and take the exposure. Most of the time when the public takes one side decisively Vegas wins. But there are occasions the public gets the better of Vegas.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

View attachment 678818

It is crazy they aren't adjusting the line. Basically every talking head has switched their tune to stay away from Vols on the spread this game.

Same thing happened in the lead up to the NC State game. At the last minute people started taking NC State to cover the 9.5 point spread. And we all know how that turned out. Same thing will happen here. Vols will roll Saturday night.

 

[livefaith]

Well that's the case MOST of the time, but not always. If Vegas is convinced all the money coming in is wrong, they will hold the line and let people make the wrong bet.

Now full disclosure, I saw this info about money still coming in on Tennessee on an Oklahoma message board, so it could be completely false. I just didn't know if there was a way to see if it's true or not.

But if it is true, it means Vegas is pretty dang sure we don't cover that spread, and that's alarming.

Are we sure that this is how it really works?

My understanding is that Gambling Organizations have to set the line initially. Then as best are placed they simply adjust the line based on the columns coming from EACH side. The org makes profit off the difference in the nets vs total payout. They are never really gambling unless they take money without properly adjusting the line as it balances.

The house really isn't gambling, but skimming off the payout. They are the ones who consistently make money. Why? Because they always make money whether the final score is 49-13 TN or 37-31 OK. They just adjust as they go so that no matter the outcome, they win their guaranteed payout. They collect every single time because they are smart. The fools are taking the risks and the more they gamble, the greater their odds of becoming losers. Same concept in all gaming.

For the gambler it's a game. For the house it's a business.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Vegas isn’t wearing the orange glasses. We are. What Vegas sees- a truly untested TN team against any team worth anything this year, a freshmen QB in his first appearance in a hostile environment at night in the SEC, a good OU defense, a UT OL that has allowed pressure from garbage teams, an untested UT secondary. Vegas usually wins for a reason. I think we win, but not by these silly astronomical numbers some posters are spewing.

They moved the line from Oklahoma being favored by 3 points to now us being favored by 7 points. That's a move of 10 points in a week. I've never seen such a line move in such a short period of time. If we were this untested team with an unproven QB going into a hostile environment against a good defense, we would be underdogs not a touchdown favorite.

No. Vegas knows we're good. The question is how good are we. Are we good enough to go into a top 15 teams home and blow them out? Vegas thinks not. They think we're not on the same level as Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. If we cover this spread easily we would prove we are on the level of an elite top 5 caliber team.

 

[EastTNVol6240]

Again I don’t know betting but what you’re saying is LV knew this (your quote) and swung the line to bate people to vote UT to cover because they knew all along they didn’t believe it? Thats how it works correct?

I don’t think they value this team near as much as we do. The lines initial swing had much to do with their performance against Tulane. But they’re still betting we don’t run away with it on the road at night with a freshmen QB. Stats tell us they are correct much of the time. I’m betting to cover. But I’m nervous about it. If we win tomorrow, Vegas learns their lesson about TN this year.

 

[mpfvol]

I don't know how to see where the money is coming in, but it's definitely not good if money is still pouring into Tennessee and they aren't moving the line to get it to even.

Usually means Vegas sees something and they're happy for everyone to bet wrong.

Anyone know if this is true, or know where to see it?

Was thinking the same these refs best not be that way .

 

[DaddyChad]

They moved the line from Oklahoma being favored by 3 points to now us being favored by 7 points. That's a move of 10 points in a week. I've never seen such a line move in such a short period of time. If we were this untested team with an unproven QB going into a hostile environment against a good defense, we would be underdogs not a touchdown favorite.

No. Vegas knows we're good. The question is how good are we. Are we good enough to go into a top 15 teams home and blow them out? Vegas thinks not. They think we're not on the same level as Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. If we cover this spread easily we would prove we are on the level of an elite top 5 caliber team.

Vegas would adjust the number if most of the public thought that though as well.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Are we sure that this is how it really works?

My understanding is that Gambling Organizations have to set the line initially. Then as best are placed they simply adjust the line based on the columns coming from EACH side. The org makes profit off the difference in the nets vs total payout. They are never really gambling unless they take money without properly adjusting the line as it balances.

The house really isn't gambling, but skimming off the payout. They are the ones who consistently make money. Why? Because they always make money whether the final score is 49-13 TN or 37-31 OK. They just adjust as they go so that no matter the outcome, they win their guaranteed payout. They collect every single time because they are smart. The fools are taking the risks and the more they gamble, the greater their odds of becoming losers. Same concept in all gaming.

For the gambler it's a game. For the house it's a business.

Nah. That's not how it works. Go look at BetMGM's mobile app. They usually show how much money is coming in on each side. It's almost never 50/50. Vegas always takes on more exposure on one side over the other. The way Vegas makes money is the fact they have smart people and computers crunching the numbers to set the lines. Then they trust their numbers to be right more than not.

For example, the public loves to bet the over on almost every over/under. On the BetMGM I bet quite a bit on baseball and it's rare to ever see more money coming in on the under. So because Vegas knows people love to bet the over they'll set the line knowing this tendency. They won't move it expecting to see a 50/50 split in the money. Instead they'll let the foolish public keep betting the over while the under hits 6-7 times out of 10.

Also people love to bet parlays. Those almost never hit. So Vegas makes a lot of money that way too. The idea all they do is balance the books so 50% of the money comes in one side and 50% comes in on the other while skimming off the top is a total myth. The operation they run is far more sophisticated and far more data driven than that.

 

[EastTNVol6240]

They moved the line from Oklahoma being favored by 3 points to now us being favored by 7 points. That's a move of 10 points in a week. I've never seen such a line move in such a short period of time. If we were this untested team with an unproven QB going into a hostile environment against a good defense, we would be underdogs not a touchdown favorite.

No. Vegas knows we're good. The question is how good are we. Are we good enough to go into a top 15 teams home and blow them out? Vegas thinks not. They think we're not on the same level as Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. If we cover this spread easily we would prove we are on the level of an elite top 5 caliber team.

You didn’t once see me say Vegas doesn’t think we’re good. Like you said they just don’t think we’re that good- due to reasons I mentioned. As others have said if we cover tomorrow, betting on us to cover the ROS will be much tougher.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

With the amount of money on the line, especially in pro sports, there are rigged games. Not all of them, but some are very obvious. Basketball is the most obvious and easy to rig through refs

Yes this is a symptom of legalizes gambling in college sports. Now a biilion dollar industry has millions to hundreds of millions of dollars at stake on EACH big game. .there will be millions spent in bribes, threats, and coercion to keep these casinos and sites from losing enough money to buy a fleet of private jets. Anyone with a brain could foresee this...and these crooked bastards spent millions in lobbying to get their criminal enterprises legalized. Complete BS and we as voters allowed this to happen thru complacency and inaction. Congrats gamblers. You have ruined college sports with your addiction and greed.

 

[VOLLeeann]

With the amount of money on the line, especially in pro sports, there are rigged games. Not all of them, but some are very obvious. Basketball is the most obvious and easy to rig through refs

I love you but this is delusional

 

[Hulavol]

Yes this is a symptom of legalizes gambling in college sports. Now a biilion dollar industry has millions to hundreds of millions of dollars at stake on EACH big game. .there will be millions spent in bribes, threats, and coercion to keep these casinos and sites from losing enough money to buy a fleet of private jets. Anyone with a brain could foresee this...and these crooked bastards spent millions in lobbying to get their criminal enterprises legalized. Complete BS and we as voters allowed this to happen thru complacency and inaction. Congrats gamblers. You have ruined college sports with your addiction and greed.

A mob controlled major bettor might try to buy off a ref - I mean, it has certainly happened… hell they’ve bought whole teams before … but in today’s world there is one thing legitimate organized gambling would NEVER do- risk a scandal that could blow the whole thing up. There is less than zero chance that they would interfere in any way. There is beyond no need- they are making more money than ever, and a scandal - just one- could ruin the whole thing.
Further, the mob has no control over gambling any more because it’s legal, and they no longer own Ceasar’s and MGM and Bally’s. This isn’t 1975 any more. They are all run by huge corporations with armies of CPAs and nerds.
No one even needs a bookie these days. You can line shop and wager right from your phone 24/7/365.
Doesn’t mean some dude isn’t going to be tempted to lay down five hundred grand on OU and then pay a ref twenty grand to make sure it cashes, but that’s been going on since 1903.
Only problem is now with all the replay and massive scrutiny from the Nevada gaming commission and the SEC and etc, it’s highly, highly unlikely to go undetected.

 

[chuckiepoo]

A mob controlled major bettor might try to buy off a ref - I mean, it has certainly happened… hell they’ve bought whole teams before … but in today’s world there is one thing legitimate organized gambling would NEVER do- risk a scandal that could blow the whole thing up. There is less than zero chance that they would interfere in any way. There is beyond no need- they are making more money than ever, and a scandal - just one- could ruin the whole thing.
Further, the mob has no control over gambling any more because it’s legal, and they no longer own Ceasar’s and MGM and Bally’s. This isn’t 1975 any more. They are all run by huge corporations with armies of CPAs and nerds.
No one even needs a bookie these days. You can line shop and wager right from your phone 24/7/365.
Doesn’t mean some dude isn’t going to be tempted to lay down five hundred grand on OU and then pay a ref twenty grand to make sure it cashes, but that’s been going on since 1903.
Only problem is now with all the replay and massive scrutiny from the Nevada gaming commission and the SEC and etc, it’s highly, highly unlikely to go undetected.

I agree with the above. Great analysis. Will not save us from incompetent officials, though.

 

[volinvegas]

From +3.5 to -7 seems like a pretty good swing.

Mmmhmm...excelent point. It may go down a point or half closer to kickoff, given the heat in OK or something. When i saw that OK was favored by 3.5, i made a little wager myself mmmhmm. No take backs Vegas!

 

[BallerVolFan]

For the bettors, Josh Heupel is a 1st half covering machine. I think he’s 44-17-2 as a head coach against the 1H spread. But for what it’s worth, it doesn’t matter who the bets are on. Even if Oklahoma covers +6.5 all we need is the Vols to cover that -0.5 and we’re good.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

No, I’ve never bet against the Vols. But I sure as he!! never bet on them to cover the spread under Fulmer. I’m a fan of Fulmer’s success while HFC, but he was terrible at covering the spread (especially toward the end).

I’ve made good money on CJH…even on some -35 type spreads.

Note: As a personal rule and marriage saver, I only bet on anything when I’m in Vegas. No on-line gambling for me. Pandora’s Box….

The coach is not charged with "covering the spread". But if you had an angle it could have been some good money for ya GoVols.

 

[ZippyMorocco]

I don't know how to see where the money is coming in, but it's definitely not good if money is still pouring into Tennessee and they aren't moving the line to get it to even.

Usually means Vegas sees something and they're happy for everyone to bet wrong.

Anyone know if this is true, or know where to see it?

The sharps came in late on OU. Most betters bet UT. Most of the money is on OU

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

The coach is not charged with "covering the spread". But if you had an angle it could have been some good money for ya GoVols.

Coaches are pretty much money line based.

 

[KTrain]

I didn’t mean the line should be alarming - it’s a huge spread for a road game of this calibre -I meant rather the overall properties of the wager should be alarming - fresh qb/road/at Oklahoma who rarely loses at home…

OU has a RS Fresh QB with exactly the same starts as Nico except he's thrown much more interceptions, Arnold has thrown 5 in 4 starts. Arnold is a good runner he has 159 yards this year and 116 in 2023.

 

[Arrested Devolopment]

Nah. That's not how it works. Go look at BetMGM's mobile app. They usually show how much money is coming in on each side. It's almost never 50/50. Vegas always takes on more exposure on one side over the other. The way Vegas makes money is the fact they have smart people and computers crunching the numbers to set the lines. Then they trust their numbers to be right more than not.

For example, the public loves to bet the over on almost every over/under. On the BetMGM I bet quite a bit on baseball and it's rare to ever see more money coming in on the under. So because Vegas knows people love to bet the over they'll set the line knowing this tendency. They won't move it expecting to see a 50/50 split in the money. Instead they'll let the foolish public keep betting the over while the under hits 6-7 times out of 10.

Also people love to bet parlays. Those almost never hit. So Vegas makes a lot of money that way too. The idea all they do is balance the books so 50% of the money comes in one side and 50% comes in on the other while skimming off the top is a total myth. The operation they run is far more sophisticated and far more data driven than that.

As a business person, this makes sense to me: using data-driven actions to make money on predictable emotion-driven decisions. For context, most of us believe we are above average intelligence.

 

[EZE]

The coach is not charged with "covering the spread". But if you had an angle it could have been some good money for ya GoVols.

Definitely not. But it gives a small indication as to whether the coach has the team overachieving and exceeding expectations…or the opposite.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Todd Furman is a popular bet analyst and he's taking OU to cover.

So is Josh Pate, and several other national CFB analysts that primarily work on youtube for ON3 etc. Beginning wed/thu they all went from Tennessee will win, maybe big!! To Tennessee wins a close game but doesnt cover the 7 point spread. Nearly all of them say this now...and all of the most watched/popular guys agree that we win a squeaker in a low scoring game. What worries me is that its just like when the liberal MSM gets their talking points and on the same day, every major network in the US starts saying the EXACT same phrases. This is what has just happened pertaining to this game. Most of these same guys have been saying we are a playoff team with a legit shot to win it all since the NCSU blowout. Now, we are barely gonna squeak out a win versus an OK team some of these same guys predict has a 6-6 record this season. Something is up...

I still stick with my prediction
VOLS 38
Ok. 20

GO VOLS. WGWTFA

 

[ntxVOL]

So is Josh Pate, and several other national CFB analysts that primarily work on youtube for ON3 etc. Beginning wed/thu they all went from Tennessee will win, maybe big!! To Tennessee wins a close game but doesnt cover the 7 point spread. Nearly all of them say this now...and all of the most watched/popular guys agree that we win a squeaker in a low scoring game. What worries me is that its just like when the liberal MSM gets their talking points and on the same day, every major network in the US starts saying the EXACT same phrases. This is what has just happened pertaining to this game. Most of these same guys have been saying we are a playoff team with a legit shot to win it all since the NCSU blowout. Now, we are barely gonna squeak out a win versus an OK team some of these same guys predict has a 6-6 record this season. Something is up...

I still stick with my prediction
VOLS 38
Ok. 20

GO VOLS. WGWTFA

That's a disturbing observation, sounds like the talking points are out. It sucks how gambling is affecting college football and how much sports media is being controlled by some puppet master.

That really makes me wonder how much these people can control the officials as well.