Is it true all the money is coming in on Tennessee to cover, but they aren't moving the line?

#101
#101
VOLS going to dominate in a way that leaves no doubt. Vegas typically adjusts line based on total money on each side... Maybe big money on Okla?
 
#102
#102
Tman44 said:
So the line remains -7 with the brick and mortar sports books (Bally's, Caesars, MGM). The line is at -6.5 on all of the online books such as Draft Kings, ESPN Bet and Fan Duel. I really don't understand the reason behind this, but it seems strange to me. To put it into perspective, this is a 10.5 point swing from where the line opened with OU being favored by 3.5. That swing is HUGE for a college football game. The books will normally adjust the line to create even betting on both sides of the bet. Previous posters have noted the more money has been reported on the OU side, and yet we see no movement of the line. The reason for this probably that when the line opened at -3.5 OU, TONS of money went on Tennessee. If you got those odds you are golden. We're just seeing the pendulum swing the other way now. If it keeps up, expect a correction this evening.
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The books will normally adjust the line to create even betting on both sides of the bet. That is a Myth. The reason they adjust the line is "Well if they like team A so much at -7, let's see how they like them at -8". Vegas usually knows which is the right side, and I''m thinking they don't want to give Okie backers 7.5, which suggests they think 7 is the right number. If they wanted to get even bets, all they'd need to do is give the 7.5 to make it a 2 score spread. Vegas knows trickeration too. But they don't worry about even betting anymore, since they get mega-rich from the Public only betting Favorites.
 
#103
#103
ntxVOL said:
That's a disturbing observation, sounds like the talking points are out. It sucks how gambling is affecting college football and how much sports media is being controlled by some puppet master.

That really makes me wonder how much these people can control the officials as well.
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That really makes me wonder how much these people can control the officials as well. As much as they can get away with without creating a firestorm. BILLIONS are bet on Sports and Money begats corruption. Games have been "Fixed" or Influenced since sports betting began. Ever see a call and say WTH?? There you go. Vegas IS the mob. The KC Chiefs are 2 time defending Super Bowl champs with the Best QB in the league, and RARELY cover the spread.. Hmmm.
 
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#104
#104
Swiftybaby said:
I could be completely wrong but I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say sports betting is a multi billion dollar industry
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It isn't near what these Casinos bring in though and as stated, it tends to be more at the pro level. College isn't anything to scuff at but no where near NFL, NBA, MLB, etc. The exception is big post season events like March Madness.
 
#105
#105
volbound1700 said:
It isn't near what these Casinos bring in though and as stated, it tends to be more at the pro level. College isn't anything to scuff at but no where near NFL, NBA, MLB, etc. The exception is big post season events like March Madness.
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…expanded playoffs enters the chat…
 
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#107
#107
The line doesn’t move with public money the way people think it does. The line moves with large amounts of “pro” money on one side or the other. With that said I have $500 on Tennessee to cover 7. GO VOLS!!! WGWTFA
 
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#109
#109
Vegas is playing against two sides: public uninformed fun money bettors AND sharp money pro betters. Sharp money is were the real action is. You will notice that the line usually moves the most at two points: right when it opens and right before kick off. Both points are when the sharp action is taking place. Vegas is weary of the sharp money because usually it is much larger average bets compared to the public. Vegas wants to limit its risk, so they absolutely hedge against both parties. Up to this point, it looks like the sharp money is leaning on OU to cover. That doesn’t spell doom for Tennessee though as even today we are -6.5, meaning Vegas is now playing hard against the sharps and saying even with that big money coming in on OU, it is still confident we are about a TD favorite. 6.5 is one of the most challenging lines though and will draw in some sharp money on the Vols right before kick off. Vegas probably waited to drop the line by .5 to see how the big money bettors would react this afternoon.

The house always wins, even against the sharps. Sharps may average out to 51% against Vegas, but eventually Vegas will catch them lacking. The fancy casinos were built both by sucker public money AND “successful” “pro” bettors who eventually drop a major loss.
 
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#110
#110
volbound1700 said:
It isn't near what these Casinos bring in though and as stated, it tends to be more at the pro level. College isn't anything to scuff at but no where near NFL, NBA, MLB, etc. The exception is big post season events like March Madness.
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Hmmmm. You need to go to a Casino Sportsbook on Saturday and see how packed it is. College Football is closing fast.
 
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#111
#111
KnoxRealtorVOL said:
I don't know how to see where the money is coming in, but it's definitely not good if money is still pouring into Tennessee and they aren't moving the line to get it to even.

Usually means Vegas sees something and they're happy for everyone to bet wrong.

Anyone know if this is true, or know where to see it?
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It has been a while since Tennessee was FAVORED in a road game.
 
#112
#112
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
Vegas is playing against two sides: public uninformed fun money bettors AND sharp money pro betters. Sharp money is were the real action is. You will notice that the line usually moves the most at two points: right when it opens and right before kick off. Both points are when the sharp action is taking place. Vegas is weary of the sharp money because usually it is much larger average bets compared to the public. Vegas wants to limit its risk, so they absolutely hedge against both parties. Up to this point, it looks like the sharp money is leaning on OU to cover. That doesn’t spell doom for Tennessee though as even today we are -6.5, meaning Vegas is now playing hard against the sharps and saying even with that big money coming in on OU, it is still confident we are about a TD favorite. 6.5 is one of the most challenging lines though and will draw in some sharp money on the Vols right before kick off. Vegas probably waited to drop the line by .5 to see how the big money bettors would react this afternoon.

The house always wins, even against the sharps. Sharps may average out to 51% against Vegas, but eventually Vegas will catch them lacking. The fancy casinos were built both by sucker public money AND “successful” “pro” bettors who eventually drop a major loss.
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Yep and NOW, everyone can bet (almost anyway) . That's a ton more "Square" money that ever.
 
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#113
#113
JohnWardForever said:
Yep and NOW, everyone can bet (almost anyway) . That's a ton more "Square" money that ever.
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That change to -6.5 today by Vegas is downright deadly. If it stays, then I feel confident Vegas hedged and they don’t see something we don’t see either. I will start to panic if they suddenly move it down to -6 or -5 right around 7 EST. That could mean both Vegas and the sharp money are on the same side and they are trying to get sucker bets in late to balance a little bit.

For the record, I don’t gamble and do not recommend it. I do am have an odd interest in lines because they can be telling of how things could turn out. The “pros” always look for things we ignore or cannot see, and it shows on the line movement.
 
#114
#114
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
That change to -6.5 today by Vegas is downright deadly. If it stays, then I feel confident Vegas hedged and they don’t see something we don’t see either. I will start to panic if they suddenly move it down to -6 or -5 right around 7 EST. That could mean both Vegas and the sharp money are on the same side and they are trying to get sucker bets in late to balance a little bit.

For the record, I don’t gamble and do not recommend it. I do am have an odd interest in lines because they can be telling of how things could turn out. The “pros” always look for things we ignore or cannot see, and it shows on the line movement.
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Vegas could be enticing Okie backers to "Get this 6.5 before it goes down" Vegas is very tricky.
 
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#115
#115
The spread has already gone from +3.5 to -7. It’s not going any bigger. Leaves way too much in the middle if it climbs anymore
 
#116
#116
BP4Prez said:
The spread has already gone from +3.5 to -7. It’s not going any bigger. Leaves way too much in the middle if it climbs anymore
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It’s gone down to 6.5 but 80% of the bets on Tenn but 60% of the money on OU. Means the big money on Oklahoma to cover
 
#117
#117
Sooner Redzone said:
It’s gone down to 6.5 but 80% of the bets on Tenn but 60% of the money on OU. Means the big money on Oklahoma to cover
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Not shocked about the public bet because it often skews heavily toward the favorite. 60% of the money means Vegas is close to where it wants to be. They do not want to lose to big money bettors either. It will be telling to see how it changes here in the next 3 hours.
 
#118
#118
EastTNVol6240 said:
Vegas isn’t wearing the orange glasses. We are. What Vegas sees- a truly untested TN team against any team worth anything this year, a freshmen QB in his first appearance in a hostile environment at night in the SEC, a good OU defense, a UT OL that has allowed pressure from garbage teams, an untested UT secondary. Vegas usually wins for a reason. I think we win, but not by these silly astronomical numbers some posters are spewing.
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I bet Vols -14 BVS be damn. GBO 🍊
 
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#122
#122
ntxVOL said:
That's a disturbing observation, sounds like the talking points are out. It sucks how gambling is affecting college football and how much sports media is being controlled by some puppet master.

That really makes me wonder how much these people can control the officials as well.
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It sounds to me like those folks are trying to talk people into betting OU. IF they’re trying to solicit losing bets and IF there’s anything nefarious going on, wouldn’t that be to our benefit?

For the record, I think all this conspiracy stuff is nonsense. But if you’re going to believe nonsense, it should at least be internally consistent.
 
#123
#123
Col_Cathcart said:
It sounds to me like those folks are trying to talk people into betting OU. IF they’re trying to solicit losing bets and IF there’s anything nefarious going on, wouldn’t that be to our benefit?

For the record, I think all this conspiracy stuff is nonsense. But if you’re going to believe nonsense, it should at least be internally consistent.
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#124
#124
Line is starting to inch towards OU. Could be a lot of things effecting it but I’ve seen -5.5 in one spot vs -7 in others. Feels like how the lines moved against UGA in 22. Different game and team, but similar trend against UT with the late money coming in.

Also within the realm of possibility is Vegas baiting big money too.
 
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