Umm, math is not your strong suit is it? Dooley got three years.... including "year zero".
No. It isn't. Not even remotely close to as bad as it was 3 years ago. UT's program was in total disarray after Kiffin left and the roster was absolutely horrible. There were virtually NO quality upper classmen.
Butch's real problem is that the talent gap on this roster is in the middle. The Sr's have talent. He got a few players this year that can help after being set up very badly by Dooley. I don't blame him for not getting a great class... but he really needed one. All this means is that this year's roster is likely stronger and deeper than next year's and possible the next year's. IMHO, he still has to get a win THIS YEAR that he can hang his hat on going forward PLUS win the ones he "should" win... there are six of those.
Probably not even if he could potentially turn into a great coach. If TN had more instate talent then you could probably let him have that 4th year with a record at about .500 over the first three years. But he MUST do something to prove he is a coach worthy of having out of state talent coming to play for... out of state recruits must view him as BETTER than their instate options and other out of state options.
The better question is which of the next 3 years does his roster and schedule give him the best chance of winning 8? It is NOT next year so you'd have to look at '15 vs this year.
I don't think it takes 8 regular season games though. If he can beat someone this year as an underdog and total 7 games, win six next year, then 7 or 8 the followin year- I think he gets a year four and SHOULD get a year four.
However this is ALL contingent on him proving he can outcoach one of the top tier programs. If his victories have all come against the Vandy's, Mizzous, and lesser programs... then I don't think he should get a year 4 nor do I think UT can afford to give him one.
The bottom line for me is that everything hinges on him proving he can outcoach coaches that head the better programs he will face. He needs that for booster/fan support and he needs it for recruiting credibility.