‘23 JUCO OT Larry Johnson III ( Tennessee commit)

[swchandler1988]

You're just this person spending YOUR valuable time on me out of spite.

I'll never meet you.

I'll never care anything about what you have to say.

You sit there and completely take my words of context whenever you get the chance. And everyone else sees it to but you continue to do it.

All because I called you out a few times when you were clearly wrong.

Life is short. You might as well be singing praises to your worst enemies then even engage me in conversation.

I win EVERYTIME you decide to speak to me
... everytime.

ha well for starters, the way you speak in absolutes and how you act like your opinion is expert..is annoying. Also your tantrums are entertaining. Makes sense you’re a cali boy, or girl. I’ll never know. Ok now you can proceed to have conversations with yourself

 

[Orange_Crush]

I'll tell you how recruiting rankings can help us in the day of NIL money. If we can out-evaluate everyone else on lower ranked but highly skilled guys, we more than likely get them cheaper than the highly ranked, high skilled guys. So, when we do compete for the highly ranked guys, we have that much more in the kitty.

 

[T2P_Priceless]

I'll tell you how recruiting rankings can help us in the day of NIL money. If we can out-evaluate everyone else on lower ranked but highly skilled guys, we more than likely get them cheaper than the highly ranked, high skilled guys. So, when we do compete for the highly ranked guys, we have that much more in the kitty.

That definitely has validity assuming collectives max out

 

[butchna]

Well, the coaches could start him at RT and you could still be right if he sucks.

Let’s hope whoever starts there doesn’t suck.

Nah...no fun in that. #TeamMeh

 

[swchandler1988]

You're just this person spending YOUR valuable time on me out of spite.

I'll never meet you.

I'll never care anything about what you have to say.

You sit there and completely take my words of context whenever you get the chance. And everyone else sees it to but you continue to do it.

All because I called you out a few times when you were clearly wrong.

Life is short. You might as well be singing praises to your worst enemies then even engage me in conversation.

I win EVERYTIME you decide to speak to me
... everytime.

Ugh fine. Sorry i was being a d*ck. That’s my bad

 

[BigorangeBoy]

Getting back to LJ3, since he was a full academic qualifier out of HS - he does not have to graduate from JUCO first, and can enroll early?

 

[JT3]

Getting back to LJ3, since he was a full academic qualifier out of HS - he does not have to graduate from JUCO first, and can enroll early?

That's my understanding

 

[sjt18]

I agree with everything except the last part. We did it in the 90s. Fulmer won ALL THE TIME.

True. He sort of was the "Saban" of his era unp until around 2003 or so. When he showed up, other coaches gave up.

Saban will retire soon as well.

I've said that too. Nothing lasts forever.

Just have to start beating Kirby...or like you said out evaluate him (still beating him).

I don't think that's the mountain that some do. I don't actually think he's an "elite" coach. Very good but not "elite".

It will be interesting to see who's NIL warchest is bigger in the coming years if they don't change the rules. If we're winning near their level and all else being equal NIL is going to play a major part

That and the portal. I actually think winners may be determined more by their ability to "Moneyball" the portal than their initial signees.

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

You’re using anecdotal evidence by doing that. This data is based on aggregate data. Nothing is full proof. Science shows that if you flip a quarter enough times you will get a 50/50 split. However with a small sample size it’s possible to hit heads 5 times in a row[/QUOTE

The large sample size says more 3 stars evolve into draft picks than 4 stars last year. Physical growth, proper utilization, training tables, and speed training are factors that simply show it is tough to project how groups of 17-18 year olds with such variability of opportunities in HS will stack up against the large pool of guys not as impressive over their HS careers. Late bloomers that project physical capabilities, character, and coachability during the periods of interaction with the staff is more important than stars.

Heck, some players only blow up their last few months in HS and their body of work does not warrant passing guys in the numbers limited categories with several years of performance, but they can be equal or better. So, the imperfections of stars are what they are. A starting point early in players careers, but not an end all on signing day. Celebrate the physical freaks that have done it on the field (the ones with 200+ pages on this board), question the rest and measure all their values on the field over the next 3-5 years, if they are still here. Portal and NIL have changed the signing day landscape as we knew it.

 

[butchna]

No one is totally disregarding the validity of star rankings. If your class rankings are in the 20s or lower, your program is not where it needs to be for elite status. But the manufactured anguish over being just outside the top 10 (even down to 16) completely ignores the REALITY of human evaluation percentages error. Way too many players vs way too few stages/camps to fit in too small a box. The box being the five star and four star rankings. How many forgotten Bama 5 or high 4 star OL were ranked higher than that overweight 3 star we let slip to Oklahoma? A decade later and Orlando Brown is the standard for LT in the NFL. It’s not an outlier when it keeps happening.

 

[SweetasSoda]

No one is totally disregarding the validity of star rankings. If your class rankings are in the 20s or lower, your program is not where it needs to be for elite status. But the manufactured anguish over being just outside the top 10 (even down to 16) completely ignores the REALITY of human evaluation percentages error. Way too many players vs way too few stages/camps to fit in too small a box. The box being the five star and four star rankings. How many forgotten Bama 5 or high 4 star OL were ranked higher than that overweight 3 star we let slip to Oklahoma? A decade later and Orlando Brown is the standard for LT in the NFL. It’s not an outlier when it keeps happening.

Thank You!

 

[T2P_Priceless]

True. He sort of was the "Saban" of his era unp until around 2003 or so. When he showed up, other coaches gave up.
I've said that too. Nothing lasts forever.

I don't think that's the mountain that some do. I don't actually think he's an "elite" coach. Very good but not "elite".

That and the portal. I actually think winners may be determined more by their ability to "Moneyball" the portal than their initial signees.

Yep. As for the portal I don’t think you can build a class of it unless it’s full of 3 and 4 year eligibility players. Definitely need a good base of players that are together for 2-3 years

 

[sjt18]

Yep. As for the portal I don’t think you can build a class of it unless it’s full of 3 and 4 year eligibility players. Definitely need a good base of players that are together for 2-3 years

Have you seen "Moneyball"?

 

[Orange_Crush]

Have you seen "Moneyball"?

Was that the sequel to Baseketball?

 

[Go Fight Win]

No one is totally disregarding the validity of star rankings. If your class rankings are in the 20s or lower, your program is not where it needs to be for elite status. But the manufactured anguish over being just outside the top 10 (even down to 16) completely ignores the REALITY of human evaluation percentages error. Way too many players vs way too few stages/camps to fit in too small a box. The box being the five star and four star rankings. How many forgotten Bama 5 or high 4 star OL were ranked higher than that overweight 3 star we let slip to Oklahoma? A decade later and Orlando Brown is the standard for LT in the NFL. It’s not an outlier when it keeps happening.

bingo

watch film

develop your own eye

stop complaining

this kid is raw, but huge, and watch his feet--most important element of an OL esp. OT

and talk less

 

[butchna]

bingo

watch film

develop your own eye

stop complaining

this kid is raw, but huge, and watch his feet--most important element of an OL esp. OT

and talk less

Keep failing to mention his feet. Most important facet distinguishing OT's and IOL. Though RT's don't need to dance as well as the weak side.

 

[sjt18]

Was that the sequel to Baseketball?

No. It was about a guy who used statistics to put together a cheap baseball team in Oakland that won a pennant. It would be worth the watch. Based on a true story.

They intentionally got rid of top players and fit mediocre players together.

 

[StoVol]

No. It was about a guy who used statistics to put together a cheap baseball team in Oakland that won a pennant. It would be worth the watch. Based on a true story.

They intentionally got rid of top players and fit mediocre players together.

They were elite at getting on base tho

 

[Orange_Crush]

No. It was about a guy who used statistics to put together a cheap baseball team in Oakland that won a pennant. It would be worth the watch. Based on a true story.

They intentionally got rid of top players and fit mediocre players together.

I was joking. But I'll give a watch. Thx.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Well, no. The recruiting sites have just wised up enough to recognize that certain programs are very good at finding talent. If Saban prioritizes a player then their best move is to slap 4 or 5 stars on him. You insist on putting the cart before the horse. Saban, Smart, and Day aren't waiting for your heroes to rate players before they recruit them.

Not that the actual facts persuade you very much on this issue... but yeah. Outside of 3 or 4 programs, the recruiting sites don't predict the winners very well. UT was the 2nd best team in the SEC this year. According to 247, they had the 7th most talent. Texas A&M was close to the bottom if not at the bottom. They were ranked 3rd by 247.

Nationally, Michigan DESTROYED OSU... with their 13th ranked class compared to the Buckeye's 3rd ranked class. USCw supposedly has the 11th most talented roster and was beaten by Utah with the #33 roster.

No "mental gymnastics". Just the facts of what happens outside of that handful of teams.

Just wrong as usual. Stats don’t matter. . Don’t change man. Because

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Wait a minute, so what you are saying that it is mental gymnastics? I have a tendency to believe that the recruiting agencies cannot evaluate all the players and if the top 5 teams go after a player it elevates his Star Rating. That makes perfectly good sense. They don't find them all and there are a 1,000s of 3* and 2* players that should be 4* and sometimes 5* that never make the board because they are never evaluated. A small % of OL players rarely grade out over a 3* but when they do it is a matter of who is recruiting them vs a thorough evaluation.

Yes recruiting services miss every single year. But they get it right way more often than get it wrong. Here is the fact to my argument about this. The teams with the most blue chip players win the most at the highest level. End of story.

 

[Jaxon_Vol2017]

Why are you always trying to pick a fight with me?

Have you seen how you post?

 

[sjt18]

Just wrong as usual. Stats don’t matter. . Don’t change man. Because

View attachment 522769

You very literally cannot point to stats or facts beyond a handful of teams that find talent and win. I'm sure Saban depends on his 247 subscription to find great players, right?

Do you really, honestly not see how stupid what you're pushing is?

Your faith in the recruiting sites is not born out by their accuracy or lack thereof in predicting winners.... or future NFL players.

 

[sjt18]

Yes recruiting services miss every single year. But they get it right way more often than get it wrong.

No they don't. They pick around 30 5* player each year. That comes NOWHERE close to being the actual number of players who "deserve" 5*. They arbitrarily limit the number of 5* ratings they hand out to make themselves look more accurate than they are. About 60% of those players will be drafted... in case you can't do that math... that's around 18 players. About 20% of the 400 or so 4* players will be drafted. So out of over 250 players who ultimately get drafted each year... less than 100 are given 4/5* by recruiting sites. That is a FACT in spite of the fact that around 430 recruits will be given 4/5* in any given year. That is NOT accurate by any rational definition of the word "accurate".

Here is the fact to my argument about this. The teams with the most blue chip players win the most at the highest level. End of story.

Yeah. Because Bama and UGA wait for 247 to tell them who is good each year, right? Good grief that's so dumb.

You can't just look at 4 or 5 successful programs who the recruiting sites FOLLOW with high ratings. You have to keep going. If they were accurate then there's no way that Purdue who was 6th in the Big 10 West according to 247 in total talent this year should have been in the CG.

Using 247's composite....

Utah was the Pac12 champ. They were 6th in talent with 15 total 4* players compared to over 40 each for Oregon and USC.

Tulane was the AAC champ and supposedly the 7th most talented team out of 10.

TCU has 17 4/5* players vs Texas' 59 and OU's 51. They shouldn't have even been competitive according to YOUR argument.



If you were right about the accuracy of the recruiting sites then NONE of these things could be true. But... they are.

 

[bkbasketball]

He’s playing tonight at 9 PM on ESPNU. Let’s check him out.