July Jobs Report

[govols09]

Jobs are up 160k. Unemployment rate rises to 8.3%. June employment revised down. Nearly all sectors report increased employment. Discuss.

 

[theFallGuy]

"All the net jobs created during the Obama administration have been part-time jobs. An estimated 35 million Americans are trapped in jobs they would have left in better times. Fewer Americans are working today than in the year 2000, despite the fact that our population has grown by 31 million and our labor force by 11.4 million since then." - Mort Zuckerman

discuss

 

[volprof]

Jobs are up 160k. Unemployment rate rises to 8.3%. June employment revised down. Nearly all sectors report increased employment. Discuss.

Sounds like the trend of claiming unemployment and/or disability is still up as well.

 

[theFallGuy]

"We have recovered less than 20 percent of the jobs lost in the recession, compared to previous recoveries in which over 100 percent of the jobs lost were recouped. This recession has shown employers that they can make do with fewer workers. Over 20 percent of companies say that employment in their firms will never return to pre-recession levels. Just as serious is that most of the newly available jobs don't match the pay, the hours, or the benefits of the millions of positions that vanished during the recession."

 

[volprof]

"We have recovered less than 20 percent of the jobs lost in the recession, compared to previous recoveries in which over 100 percent of the jobs lost were recouped. This recession has shown employers that they can make do with fewer workers. Over 20 percent of companies say that employment in their firms will never return to pre-recession levels. Just as serious is that most of the newly available jobs don't match the pay, the hours, or the benefits of the millions of positions that vanished during the recession."

Would you say the part of that quote in bold is Obama's fault?

 

[lawgator1]

"We have recovered less than 20 percent of the jobs lost in the recession, compared to previous recoveries in which over 100 percent of the jobs lost were recouped. This recession has shown employers that they can make do with fewer workers. Over 20 percent of companies say that employment in their firms will never return to pre-recession levels. Just as serious is that most of the newly available jobs don't match the pay, the hours, or the benefits of the millions of positions that vanished during the recession."

This is 100 percent correct, and would have been the case had Jesus Christ himself been POTUS the last 4 years.

Structural change is structural.

 

[Lexvol]

Romney's real mission: telling the country exactly how he will make this situation better...in very clear terms. That message is not getting out there yet.

 

[GAVol]

This is 100 percent correct, and would have been the case had Jesus Christ himself been POTUS the last 4 years.

Structural change is structural.

The moral to the story..... Don't campaign based on being the savior of an economy and expect people to look the other way 4 years later.

 

[utvolpj]

Would you say the part of that quote in bold is Obama's fault?

it's his fault for claiming he could fix it

 

[theFallGuy]

it's his fault for claiming he could fix it

this x1000. I'm thinking Obama won't bring that up on the campaign trail.

 

[volprof]

This is 100 percent correct, and would have been the case had Jesus Christ himself been POTUS the last 4 years.

Structural change is structural.

Yeah, that quote was pretty telling. I've stated before on this forum that no one recession and recovery are exactly alike, much to my detriment because I was essentially called an idiot who didn't know jackshine by some posters. We have shifted even further towards a service economy during the last couple of decades (aka crappy minimum-wage and part-time jobs) and also have a Euro crisis to deal with as well. I don't know that what worked in the past will necessarily work in this particular case, although perhaps it will. I admit it's possible. And I also admit that Obama could be really crappy for the economy; however, to pin it all on him is unfair in my opinion. I don't know that any other president would have done much better during this time if that statement about businesses realizing they need fewer employees is indeed accurate (and it probably is).

 

[theFallGuy]

Would you say the part of that quote in bold is Obama's fault?

Partially yes. I mean some of it is technology advances but you also have to consider the business climate for the past few years. Health care legislation, un-friendly business rhetoric by the President, out of control gov't waste and spending, and constantly talking about how he is going to tax the rich more. Businesses have already said should healthcare get passed they would be unable to hire more workers because the costs of current workers would skyrocket. With that pressure in mind, I can understand why companies are going to extraordinary lengths to get by "with what they have" for the foreseeable future.

My company right now has not hired anyone since prior to the recession.

 

[theFallGuy]

Yeah, that quote was pretty telling. I've stated before on this forum that no one recession and recovery are exactly alike, much to my detriment because I was essentially called an idiot who didn't know jackshine by some posters. We have shifted even further towards a service economy during the last couple of decades (aka crappy minimum-wage and part-time jobs) and also have a Euro crisis to deal with as well. I don't know that what worked in the past will necessarily work in this particular case, although perhaps it will. I admit it's possible. And I also admit that Obama could be really crappy for the economy; however, to pin it all on him is unfair in my opinion. I don't know that any other president would have done much better during this time if that statement about businesses realizing they need fewer employees is indeed accurate (and it probably is).

I disagree completely. Step one, don't talk down to and criticize the private sector. Build confidence in them because they are the ones that get the ball rolling. Step two, don't tell every business owner they didn't build their own business. As far as I'm concerned, the Pres can go **** himself for that comment. Step three, lower taxes. History shows people spend and invest more when taxes are lower, even the Democrats know this. Step four, employ free market principles on health care not more red tape and gov't intervention.

 

[volprof]

it's his fault for claiming he could fix it

this x1000. I'm thinking Obama won't bring that up on the campaign trail.

Perhaps so, but that's not the issue at hand. Obama has been criticized for failing to create jobs because he's essentially an idiot who knows nothing about the economy. The quote that FallGuy placed on here suggests that the problem is structural (as Lawgator said) and goes far beyond any one president's economic policies. Perhaps another president could do a better job of convincing businesses that they need to hire employees that they now see as unnecessary, but that is a tough sell. Possible perhaps but tough.

 

[theFallGuy]

Perhaps so, but that's not the issue at hand. Obama has been criticized for failing to create jobs because he's essentially an idiot who knows nothing about the economy. The quote that FallGuy placed on here suggests that the problem is structural (as Lawgator said) and goes far beyond any one president's economic policies. Perhaps another president could do a better job of convincing businesses that they need to hire employees that they now see as unnecessary, but that is a tough sell. Possible perhaps but tough.

I don't think the writer was suggesting the problem is all structural. He didn't say that. He was making a statistical point about current hiring practices. If you read the whole article he is very much criticizing the economy under Obama.

"The Obama campaign emphasizes that "for years before the economic crisis," middle-class security had been slipping away because of stagnant wages and soaring healthcare costs. It's true that even before the start of the Iraq war in 2003 we had problems (education and fiscal control), but the record of the last four years is worrying. The unemployment rate under President Obama has averaged over 9 percent. Under George W. Bush, his predecessor, the jobless rate averaged 5.3 percent and was at 6.8 percent in the month his party lost the 2008 election. Job seekers are only one third as likely to find a job as before Obama was elected. A record number have been out of work for over six months. Hiring plans have sunk to the lowest reading since the third quarter of 2009, and only 26 percent of American companies plan to boost their compensation, the lowest since the depth of the last recession, as reported by David Rosenberg, chief economist of Gluskin Sheff.

Today a record number of households have at least one member looking for a job. The average private sector workweek is 34.5 hours. If not for the relatively short workweek, the jobless rate would be even higher. Another pattern that has emerged is that companies are asking employees to take unpaid leave, and this doesn't count toward the unemployment rates."

I don't think there is any question that Obama owns this economy.

 

[utvolpj]

Perhaps so, but that's not the issue at hand. Obama has been criticized for failing to create jobs because he's essentially an idiot who knows nothing about the economy. The quote that FallGuy placed on here suggests that the problem is structural (as Lawgator said) and goes far beyond any one president's economic policies. Perhaps another president could do a better job of convincing businesses that they need to hire employees that they now see as unnecessary, but that is a tough sell. Possible perhaps but tough.

this Pres has done a poor job with allowing companies to expand and hire. His policies confuse and who is going to start expanding/hiring when the future is so uncertain. Having a Pres with an understanding of basic economic principles would definitely do better. Heck, just give us one that has actually worked in a business and things would change

 

[Velo Vol]

This chart shows that this recovery has consistently been progressing at about the same rate as the recovery after the 2001 recession (the difference being that a lot more jobs were lost before recovery started this time).

Our economy has changed over the past 20 years. Due to increased productivity, or whatever, employers are slower to hire new people when business picks up.

 

[BigPapaVol]

This is 100 percent correct, and would have been the case had Jesus Christ himself been POTUS the last 4 years.

Structural change is structural.

I assume you know this structural change has happened repeatedly throughout our history. The missing piece is the small and midsize business.

 

[BigPapaVol]

Perhaps so, but that's not the issue at hand. Obama has been criticized for failing to create jobs because he's essentially an idiot who knows nothing about the economy. The quote that FallGuy placed on here suggests that the problem is structural (as Lawgator said) and goes far beyond any one president's economic policies. Perhaps another president could do a better job of convincing businesses that they need to hire employees that they now see as unnecessary, but that is a tough sell. Possible perhaps but tough.

What suggests that the problem is structural?

 

[lawgator1]

I assume you know this structural change has happened repeatedly throughout our history. The missing piece is the small and midsize business.

As small business person I complain all the time about the red tape associated with everything we do. Its mind numbing and absorbs countless hours of my time every year.

And if that all went away tomorrow I wouldn't hire anyone new because I don't need them. There's no demand.

Supply side approach will not work in this economy. Priming the demand pump via the government? Meh, I share doubts that will work, as well. I think the reverse of the Romney plan might work.

Instead of giving those making over $3 million a year a $250,000 a year tax cut, and increasing taxes on 125 middle class families by $2,000 a year to pay for that, let's increase taxes on the guy making over $3 million by $250,000 and give 125 families a $2,000 tax break.

They will spend it. Create demand and jobs.

 

[GAVol]

Has demand side ever really worked though? Im not debating, I'm trying to think of a circumstance where bottom up has ever worked economically vs just being a way to buy votes.

 

[Gramps]

"All the net jobs created during the Obama administration have been part-time jobs. An estimated 35 million Americans are trapped in jobs they would have left in better times. Fewer Americans are working today than in the year 2000, despite the fact that our population has grown by 31 million and our labor force by 11.4 million since then." - Mort Zuckerman

discuss

I think a big part of this is due to 3 things:

1. Big corporations outsourcing jobs and/or moving their mfg facilites to anoter country due to the wages in the USA.

2. The Big Business remaining in the USA have laid off the higher paid employees and now hiring through temp services which saves them several dollars per hour per employee.

3. The Federal Government. I am talking about the Dems and GOP. They need to get off their butts and reach some agreements to help the USA instead of being gridlocked. That is both sides of the aile.

While 1 and 2 do make the business and stock holders money, it is hurting the poor and middle class. This will come back to hurt the corporations in the long haul and has to a certain point. The work force that is having to live on 40-60% of what they were 10 years ago is lowering their buying power, thus less money to purchase the Big Corp products.

The poor is going to spend every dime the get their hands on within a week.
The middle class buying power is where it is at.
When they have money and have a feel good feeling about the future the econoomy grows.
When they do not have the money to spend the economy has to slow down.

 

[NEO]

As small business person I complain all the time about the red tape associated with everything we do. Its mind numbing and absorbs countless hours of my time every year.

And if that all went away tomorrow I wouldn't hire anyone new because I don't need them. There's no demand.

Supply side approach will not work in this economy. Priming the demand pump via the government? Meh, I share doubts that will work, as well. I think the reverse of the Romney plan might work.

Instead of giving those making over $3 million a year a $250,000 a year tax cut, and increasing taxes on 125 middle class families by $2,000 a year to pay for that, let's increase taxes on the guy making over $3 million by $250,000 and give 125 families a $2,000 tax break.

They will spend it. Create demand and jobs.

LG, the voice of the small business owner.

 

[utvolpj]

Instead of giving those making over $3 million a year a $250,000 a year tax cut, and increasing taxes on 125 middle class families by $2,000 a year to pay for that, let's increase taxes on the guy making over $3 million by $250,000 and give 125 families a $2,000 tax break.

if you're just going to quote Obama verbatim you should probably give him credit

 

[lawgator1]

Has demand side ever really worked though? Im not debating, I'm trying to think of a circumstance where bottom up has ever worked economically vs just being a way to buy votes.

I'm no historian but look around. Why would production of more goods or provision of more services that no one is buying now cause the economy to improve? "If you build it, they will come" is a line form a movie. It isn't true in real life.