Kellie Harper discussion/debate thread [merged]

[Voluble2]

Fulmer has interviewed LVFL Kelli Harper (Missouri State) and NC State coach Wes Moore. He is believed to have talked to LVFL Kara @karalawson20, who does great job as ESPN commentator.
— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) April 8, 2019
so disinterested he interviewed.

I always thought Wes was the obvious choice the last go around.

You have to find someone who wins more than they should with the talent they have and who has done so consistently. Then give them the resources to bring in much better talent. Going for a flavor of the month who had one good run in the most recent tournament is never a good way to go for a program with our resources. Going for someone who has not coached before is a bad idea too.

I said before the season started that this is Kellie's make or break year. Everything that has happened since then has only reinforced that opinion. If she doesn't get it done this year she is not going to get it done at all because there is nothing in the pipeline tht will get here in time to make a difference.

 

[glv98]

LOL what "analytics" show that? And I disagree, from my unofficial analytics of watching countless hours of basketball from my couch, most coaches still do use timeouts to stop runs...

The causal effect of a timeout at stopping an opposing run in the NBA
There's others out there as well. Scholarly papers have been written.

Why do you think she (and others, such as Barnes) don't do it anymore? Don't you think they know fans and conventional wisdom are screaming for them to take a momentum stopping t.o.? Obviously they're seeing evidence the time outs aren't really effective and better used elsewhere. No matter how bad a coach you think KJH is, she's not career suicidal.

I'm not even arguing that the current analytics are correct. Just that they're out there, and many coaches obviously believe them.

 

[Coach Jumper]

Different issue. Of course any coach would use t.o. to stop the clock or set up a play at the end of games. The question here is about the use of time outs to stop runs. Most coaches, including Rick and Kellie, don't do that anymore bc analytics show they're not all that effective in actually stopping runs. Stopping the clock does not equal stopping the momentum according to current coach think.

LOL what "analytics" show that? And I disagree, from my unofficial analytics of watching countless hours of basketball from my couch, most coaches still do use timeouts to stop runs...

Exactly! You call time to catch breaths, encourage players, reset defense and maybe just chew butt just a little!!

"Analytics" aside,,,how about we give it a try,,glv.
My analytics re not using a timeout to try to stop a run,,,results,,,Not working!

My take on this subject...

If you have a matured team that gains confidence, is successful and consistently proves "not calling time out" to be beneficial in building the core strength and confidence of a team,,,have at it.

However, if doing this consistently hampers the growth, confidence and win/loss record of a team,,,forget "analytics" and use a time-honored proven tactic available to you as a coach,, as it shows your team/fans/the org that you will do SOMETHING to try to stop the run besides erratic subbing.

Further,, (see both the UCONN game where Geno called timeout and successfully stopped our run and see the LSU game where Mulkey used this tactic twice late in the game to stop our runs) and consider this "analytically proven not to work" tactic was used successfully against us not too long ago,,,successfully!

...I still believe she's the coach we need. It takes years of recruiting to get us back where we can be consistent winners. She's got some future talent lined up, but getting the top players consistently will take a bigger NIL purse than we currently have. UConn, South Carolina and LSU are buying players from the high school ranks and the portal that we have competed for.

All of you pitchfork carrying posters calling for her job better be careful of what you wish for - it could be worse. Remember what the football team went through in the last decade.

Nobody is pulling a rabbit out of the hat. Let's support the coaches we have (recruits read social media) and if you really want to help, put your money where your mouth is and donate to the Lady Vol Boost-her Club.

Kellie and her staff have proven to be able to make progress and this team has had some very close and winnable games to those ranked above them. The players, the fans, and her staff seemingly love her. And she has this team running through the meat of the SEC, winning most of the games (before LSU we were 8-0,,,remember?)

That said, I agree with Earl...Witch-hunting her and chasing her into a burning stake is not the answer. I have my theory of what is and posted it,,,,just like many others on this board. ( Kellie Harper discussion/debate thread [merged] ).

In closing this thought, I see a duplicate of what I saw that took our prior coach down,,,"Too many "yes men" and "yes women" around her and not enough influences with the "cochungas" to tell her she needs to rework some of her strategies. Hopefully she can see this before the "burn her at the stake" crew is successful.

 

[glv98]

I'm not arguing for or against the momentum stopping time out. Just pointing out why some coaches have stopped using them, even though fans and reporters think it's a fireable offense.

Easiest thing would be if some reporter who has access would simply ask Kellie or Rick.

 

[Volfaninfl2]

Forgot about Brooks. Thanks.

And I know about Chastain, but she’s an 8th grader. I was talking about the next 3 classes (23, 24, and 25). There just isn’t much talent on the way.

Forgot about Brooks. Thanks.

And I know about Chastain, but she’s an 8th grader. I was talking about the next 3 classes (23, 24, and 25). There just isn’t much talent on the way.

It’s really too early to know what our team will look like in the next 3 years.

 

[Volfaninfl2]

Am I the only one left in Camp Kellie?

Absolutely you are not alone.

 

[mudcat1973]

During the Magical Meek run of 3 nattys, it was Holly, Mickie, and Al (and his sweaters). I believe Dean came when Al left early 2000s? Dean Mickie Holly the rest of the Pat run?

I always find it interesting when people say Pat would never have wanted a male coach. She almost always had one.

al brown was men basketball coach before coming to pats lady vols? they say he was pretty ast coach in mens ncaa basketball?

 

[mudcat1973]

I guess I am having a mental block on Marta. A sweet young lady and awesome person, but all I remember of her this year is when she stepped on the court, basically tried to do too much and was turn over after turn over. If she could be coached up to play within the flow of the game, could possibly be great. Not sure how she played for other teams (internationally maybe, but do remember she was considered very capable).[/QUO

I guess I am having a mental block on Marta. A sweet young lady and awesome person, but all I remember of her this year is when she stepped on the court, basically tried to do too much and was turn over after turn over. If she could be coached up to play within the flow of the game, could possibly be great. Not sure how she played for other teams (internationally maybe, but do remember she was considered very capable).

same horston force shots . marta might force some shots but one thing for her she does not force shots in to the trees like our two point guards. walker has played better lately. she turns over way less than horston. hope to marta has great season next year.

most right now hope for the best for her mother.

 

[LVsinceJV]

.

 

[Coach Jumper]

I'm not arguing for or against the momentum stopping time out. Just pointing out why some coaches have stopped using them, even though fans and reporters think it's a fireable offense.

Easiest thing would be if some reporter who has access would simply ask Kellie or Rick.

article?
site?
where do you pull your info from please?

 

[Raebo]

Gee, here we go again... Kara Lawson will never be the coach at Tennessee (not that she'd want to) after the kerfuffles she caused on the BOT. Walz will also never be the coach, either, because of some of the shenanigans he's been involved in the past. He played the Louisville AD, the media, and apparently many of you, by putting out a false story about Tennessee's interest in him.

There was a search for other 'name' coaches and none of them would return our calls. Kellie's run into the Sweet 16 at Mo. St. (While beating Bama to get there) was all that was needed to get the attention of the UTAD.

I still believe she's the coach we need. It takes years of recruiting to get us back where we can be consistent winners. She's got some future talent lined up, but getting the top players consistently will take a bigger NIL purse than we currently have. UConn, South Carolina and LSU are buying players from the high school ranks and the portal that we have competed for.

All of you pitchfork carrying posters calling for her job better be careful of what you wish for - it could be worse. Remember what the football team went through in the last decade.

Nobody is pulling a rabbit out of the hat. Let's support the coaches we have (recruits read social media) and if you really want to help, put your money where your mouth is and donate to the Lady Vol Boost-her Club.

I have asked before and no one has replied. Do you know about how much Lady Vols get in total NIL vs other schools like UConn, South Carolina or LSU. Did we “buy” R Jackson And our other portal players? For all I know, we may be #1 in NIL money or we may be #100.

 

[glv98]

article?
site?
where do you pull your info from please?

[The causal effect of a timeout at stopping an opposing run in the NBA
Here it is, once again. I provided this about 5 or 6 posts back, actually in answer to a post you quoted. Also madtown first provided this and it was discussed, also in a post you quoted.

There are several more articles about this out there if you google. One interesting thing is that both the magical run stop time out and the "read the riot act" timeout work best with younger players but loses effectiveness past the high school level. Continues to go down as you go towards pros. I'm sure the ability to "play thru" increases with more experience.

I wonder if another reason is the use of time out to advance the ball. Now you need late time oust not only to plan a last second play but also to advance if the situation allows. Maybe that makes coaches more stingy with them. Just a guess.

I'm sure there's also an analytic regarding the effectivness of the magical technical foul on the coach that fires up the team. I suspect the effect would be the same, most effective with younger, more emotional players.

I have asked before and no one has replied. Do you know about how much Lady Vols get in total NIL vs other schools like UConn, South Carolina or LSU. Did we “buy” R Jackson And our other portal players? For all I know, we may be #1 in NIL money or we may be #100.

That is a great question and one no seems able to answer. There are a couple of urban legends out there that no one can explain one way or the other. One is that Lady Vol NIL was forced by the usual suspects onto its own NIL, the boosther club, and away from SPYRE which is a collective for all UT sports. In the legend, decision caused LV NIL money to be very tight. As a result, according to reports, a couple of top players who wanted to come here got bought out from under our noses by LSU last minute.

No one seems to be able to explain how SPYRE divides out the money, so it's hard to say if LV NIL being independent is the disaster some are saying. If it is true, we are cooked big time unless it changes.

As far as RJ, I could be wrong but my impression is she had quite lucrative deals in place before she came here so it wasn't a big factor. If it was, Kim most certainly would have bought her. I think for RJ, JP, and JH, just finding a place to play where they felt safe and happy was the biggest factor. Also, none of these players seem to have a situation where they need to think about helping support their families. Franklin gets a free masters year and one more chance to play for a coach she enjoyed.

Basically, we got lucky. Not likely to be the case next time around.

 

[Amb3096]

Again and again our point guard misses wide open shooters, especially 21 Or throws the ball in a scum under the basket. Why?

Because the PG is following a set play and don’t have the court vision to improvise when they see a better option. “Read and react” has not been a strong suit of Tennessee PGs since Massengale graduated.

 

[Coach Jumper]

Re: use of timeouts:
see new thread

 

[FormerLadyVolFan]

No one knows the NIL budget numbers because they are private organizations and aren't required to disclose them. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence from places like UConn, LSU and USCe that they have made significant promises of payments to athletes that have further bolstered their recruiting of high school and portal athletes.

Remember all of our seniors, with the exception of Jasmine Franklin and Jordan Walker have the option of an additional COVID year of eligibility. With the maximum rookie salary being $70K, there's all kinds of possibilities for next year's roster.

The Boost-her Club is not a 'disaster' - it is just getting off of the ground and needs more support to keep Tennessee competitive. Many people here and otherwise thought the support was there from Spyre, except that it's not...

I have asked before and no one has replied. Do you know about how much Lady Vols get in total NIL vs other schools like UConn, South Carolina or LSU. Did we “buy” R Jackson And our other portal players? For all I know, we may be #1 in NIL money or we may be #100.

 

[Darth_Vol]

The causal effect of a timeout at stopping an opposing run in the NBA
There's others out there as well. Scholarly papers have been written.

C'mon glv98 you're better than this. This isn't "analytics," this is one obscure, very flawed study - with the NBA - that you're trying to extrapolate to "most" coaches and "current coach think."

Also madtown first provided this and it was discussed

Yeah, that explains a lot...

 

[glv98]

C'mon glv98 you're better than this. This isn't "analytics," this is one obscure, very flawed study - with the NBA - that you're trying to extrapolate to "most" coaches and "current coach think."



Yeah, that explains a lot...

I'm curious then, why you think she and Barnes are so set against calling them. LOL I know why you think Kellie doesn't, but how to explain Rick, the coach of the #2 team in the country? He will call them occassionally, but you can tell he'd rather gargle glass. And he's been widely criticised for it. Both are very analytics oriented coaches. It's hard to imagine any other answer.

But hey, if we had a reporter interested in this subject someone might ask them!

 

[Coach Jumper]

Somebody listened.

 

[Coach Jumper]

I'm curious then, why you think she and Barnes are so set against calling them. LOL I know why you think Kellie doesn't, but how to explain Rick, the coach of the #2 team in the country? He will call them occassionally, but you can tell he'd rather gargle glass. And he's been widely criticised for it. Both are very analytics oriented coaches. It's hard to imagine any other answer.

But hey, if we had a reporter interested in this subject someone might ask them!

Unlike the ladies team,, The men's team has matured to where this is beneficial for them

 

[jim43]

I love the Lady Vols, and I love & appreciate all Kellie has done for us, but I am disappointed in the fact she does not bring the fire she had as a player.

Her teams are outhustled regularly; do not improve on handling the ball; fail to box out; refuse to switch as opponent heads toward the basket and simply stand and watch another layup; pass lazily; miss way too many layups; cannot guard 3 pt shooters even when they know the opponent will be throwing them up regularly; and walk the ball down the court even when behind with clock running out, and many times use up the clock and then throw the ball away.

Players know they will continue to play even though they keep making the same mistakes.

We need more fire; more desire to play; and a refuse to lose attitude. Kellie needs to change, and she needs new coaches who can recruit and can coach at a much higher level than we are seeing.

 

[madtownvol]

I'm curious then, why you think she and Barnes are so set against calling them. LOL I know why you think Kellie doesn't, but how to explain Rick, the coach of the #2 team in the country? He will call them occassionally, but you can tell he'd rather gargle glass. And he's been widely criticised for it. Both are very analytics oriented coaches. It's hard to imagine any other answer.

But hey, if we had a reporter interested in this subject someone might ask them!

Lordy, lordy, you are right, it is the "trap game" discussion all over again where as you recall, some people literally compared belief in trap games to believing in God. We take trap games to be a sacrosanct act of faith and don't confuse me with the stats.

I provided a link to one of many analytic studies. It ain't the only one. I think many people fail to grasp how profoundly analytics has re-shaped the sporting landscape, It started with Oakland A's moneyball and has spread everywhere because it works. In the world of pro-soccer, most of the big clubs have dismantled their scouting units. Scouts get fooled, they catch a player where matchups are favorable and think he/she is a world beater but the analytics on passing efficiency, ball possession etc. don't get fooled. Those cold, impersonal spread sheets tell the more accurate story than the "eye test" used by scouts. I find it comical that the usual suspects think they are arguing with me and you, when it is the entire sporting establishment using analytics and not relying on gut instincts and sports myths.

One statistically challenged negavol poster even said something like they trust their own couch potato experience of watching games on TV more than analytics. And people wonder why the US is falling behind the rest of the world in terms of math and scientific literacy.

The outrage over the idea TOs are, on average, not a particularly effective way to stop opposing runs and that TOs have more value for late game situations is still kind of interesting.

I mean it makes intuitive sense that subbing and changing matchups (or say shifting from man to man to a zone) would have more impact on changing the flow of a game, than the act of taking a TO per se. But, we are into the realm of faith, belief, and EGO for some posters.

So, whatever, yeah, sure if Kellie had taken a TO, at just the right moment, against Ohio State, the LVs would now be undefeated and #1 in the country.

Fire her and hire a coach who knows how to take a TO when a team scores a few baskets in a row (because it apparently takes very specialized knowledge and a rare skill to say TIME OUT!! in those moments).

Is Harry Potter available? He is really good with magical incantations.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Because the PG is following a set play and don’t have the court vision to improvise when they see a better option. “Read and react” has not been a strong suit of Tennessee PGs since Massengale graduated.

This brings back what I was thinking when Kellie was hired. LV's will have the best point guards of any team since that position is Kellie's expertise and she will personally coach that spot.

 

[madtownvol]

I'm sure there's also an analytic regarding the effectivness of the magical technical foul on the coach that fires up the team. I suspect the effect would be the same, most effective with younger, more emotional players.

No, no, no, don't go there!! The whole board will melt down if you question that sacred cow.

Please, let' just accept that it is always true, that once a coach is tee'd up, his/her team is magically transformed into a bunch of terminator robots who can't be defeated. Unless, of course, the other coach gets tee'd, which means the original coach has to get tee'd up again (and thrown out) which HAHA!! inspires the team to even greater unmatchable heights, unless the opposing coach gets Tee'd up agan (and thrown out), which means the original team's assistant coach has to get tee'd up which makes the team, once again, unbeatable, unless the opposing assistant coach gets Tee'd up which means.....

 

[Sportslady]

[The causal effect of a timeout at stopping an opposing run in the NBA
Here it is, once again. I provided this about 5 or 6 posts back, actually in answer to a post you quoted. Also madtown first provided this and it was discussed, also in a post you quoted.

There are several more articles about this out there if you google. One interesting thing is that both the magical run stop time out and the "read the riot act" timeout work best with younger players but loses effectiveness past the high school level. Continues to go down as you go towards pros. I'm sure the ability to "play thru" increases with more experience.

I wonder if another reason is the use of time out to advance the ball. Now you need late time oust not only to plan a last second play but also to advance if the situation allows. Maybe that makes coaches more stingy with them. Just a guess.

I'm sure there's also an analytic regarding the effectivness of the magical technical foul on the coach that fires up the team. I suspect the effect would be the same, most effective with younger, more emotional players.


That is a great question and one no seems able to answer. There are a couple of urban legends out there that no one can explain one way or the other. One is that Lady Vol NIL was forced by the usual suspects onto its own NIL, the boosther club, and away from SPYRE which is a collective for all UT sports. In the legend, decision caused LV NIL money to be very tight. As a result, according to reports, a couple of top players who wanted to come here got bought out from under our noses by LSU last minute.

No one seems to be able to explain how SPYRE divides out the money, so it's hard to say if LV NIL being independent is the disaster some are saying. If it is true, we are cooked big time unless it changes.

As far as RJ, I could be wrong but my impression is she had quite lucrative deals in place before she came here so it wasn't a big factor. If it was, Kim most certainly would have bought her. I think for RJ, JP, and JH, just finding a place to play where they felt safe and happy was the biggest factor. Also, none of these players seem to have a situation where they need to think about helping support their families. Franklin gets a free masters year and one more chance to play for a coach she enjoyed.

Basically, we got lucky. Not likely to be the case next time around.

Another theory to consider, if you don’t stop the run, especially in the 3/4 quarters, having the need of time outs to advance the ball late because of a close game may not even be needed….. always a challenge to make the right decisions.

 

[glv98]

One statistically challenged negavol poster even said something like they trust their own couch potato experience of watching games on TV more than analytics. And people wonder why the US is falling behind the rest of the world in terms of math and scientific literacy

To be fair, his couch survey was whether "most" coaches don't call MTOs any more as I had claimed. Alot still do for sure but enough don't to make it an interesing question IMO.