Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#50,927
#50,927
rjd970 said:
All interesting points. However, back to my point, again, if healthy and under 50, what data is there that shows you are at significant risk? We have increase deaths, which are bad, but it is limited to a focused segment of the population. Why the lockdown for everybody?
Click to expand...

I was trying to address that question. Can you effectively lockdown just a portion of the population?

Also keep in mind that "at risk" isn't just old..so it will involve people that would normally be working. I think the government can address that by allowing a form of disability to cover those people that we do not want in the workforce right now.

I'm not arguing with the idea - I think the data supports it. Can we do it? That's my question. Because if you can't, then we get back to the questions I posed at the beginning. What are the consequences of not being able to isolate them from everyone else and can we manage thta?
 
#50,928
#50,928
Purple Tiger said:
Ask the legislators how they felt about having a gallery full of armed observers.
Click to expand...
the cops and House sergeant at arms arent usually armed? They walk past armed people all the time. A bunch are probably used to it as part of security outside the Capital.

What they are upset about is that they are being peacefully held responsible and that they cant pretend their actions dont effect people.

It's easy to screw over segments of the population when you dont listen to them. It's part of why we have the 1A, to make sure we are heard. And despite all your fear mongering what actually happened is that they made themselves heard.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NurseGoodVol and 0nelilreb
#50,934
#50,934
Septic said:
I guess overreaction is subjective to whether or not you were affected by the loss of a loved one versus the loss of a job. When it comes to the potential or protection of human life - is it possible to over react?

Hindsight will always be 20/20.
Click to expand...
Yes. We have seen the government over react any number of times to protect life.

You a big fan of the Patriot Act? Getting tracked and recorded? Tuskegee was done in order to save lives. The internment of the Japanese was in order to save lives. Heck the slave owners argued their slaves couldnt care for themselves and that it was for their protection to keep them as slaves. Every single government overstep has been done in order to save lives.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NurseGoodVol, marcusluvsvols and Rickyvol77
#50,936
#50,936
SmokyRiverDog said:
I think there is more to it than that.
Click to expand...

Like what?

I hadn't thought about it until he asked and that was what I came up with in a short period. Seemed reasonable to me, but I'm all ears.

I've been in the food industry my whole life and I can see where the sanitation in a place that deals with raw beef, poultry and pork could be a hotspot more than places that don't deal in any food whatsoever.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NurseGoodVol and Grey_pilgrim
#50,937
#50,937
TennTradition said:
I was trying to address that question. Can you effectively lockdown just a portion of the population?

Also keep in mind that "at risk" isn't just old..so it will involve people that would normally be working. I think the government can address that by allowing a form of disability to cover those people that we do not want in the workforce right now.

I'm not arguing with the idea - I think the data supports it. Can we do it? That's my question. Because if you can't, then we get back to the questions I posed at the beginning. What are the consequences of not being able to isolate them from everyone else and can we manage thta?
Click to expand...

I would say yes, we can. Simply say if you are over age x, and/or have conditions a, b, and c...or you are a caretaker of those groups, you NEED to self-isolate. Everyone else wear a mask and take protective measures.

Just the same as it is now, if you are not at risk you have nothing to worry about. If you are at risk and still go out, it’s on you. Either way, the economic and personal impacts on many would be a fraction of what it is now.

With the above scenario, I don’t see anything in the way of hard data that suggests the results would be any different then what we are seeing now. And very likely, we would be well on our way to herd immunity.

Looking at the numbers is good, but you absolutely have to look at the cost benefit as it relates to the economy, and that doesn’t seem to be done with any of your analysis. Cost/Benefit is absolutely a valid metric with any analysis.
 
#50,941
#50,941
TennTradition said:
I like the idea of the math here. But I think you have to consider that first, this wasn't for a four month period and second, this was in the early phases of the outbreak.

This was from March 1-Apr 4, so US total deaths have risen from about 11,000 on Apr 4th to 64,000 on Apr 30th.

In the month of April, we went from 6394 to 63856, so roughly 57,500 deaths. Using your numbers and applying some approximate math, we can say we SHOULD have about 178,500 deaths each month. We've had 57,500 CV deaths this month. I don't know how many actual deaths we had this month - but we can see that the 57,500 number looks like a significant addition to what would normally happen.

Also, let's keep in mind that most states were well locked down by the third week of March (either by personal choice or edict). So, these deaths represent what is happening under a curve that is spread out vs. full-out transmission.

So, I like the idea of your math - but I draw a different conclusion from the approach.
Click to expand...
California has confirmed at least 2 deaths back in January from Covid. This thing has been here. We just didnt start counting until it hit the retirement homes in Washington. The post I was responding to mentioned additional deaths as 15k. I dont know how they established that, or what time frame. But that's what I was basing my post on.

Imo there are too many crap numbers being used to calculate deaths. Mutlplie governments have come out and said to count any death as Covid so i would think they are capturing more than they should to weight the pure number.

My point was that the pure number is a bad way to look at this data. Rates is far more telling. It's well establish the hardest hit are the sick and old. Those were most at risk of death anyway. I have tried finding a similar breakdown on deaths by age in this country overall to see if Covid is shifting those numbers too but havent seen it yet.

But imo the nation shouldnt be shut down because we have taken a bunch of deaths from columns, B,C, D etc and put into Column A if the overall number doesnt change appreciatively.
 
#50,942
#50,942
volfan_89 said:
Unless the data supports my unfounded views, the data is worthless.

Care to back up your claims?
Click to expand...

My post was short and to the point and you still screwed up.

I'll dumb it down for you: Many people are enjoying having their family together, not working very hard if at all and not suffering any economic hardship. These folks will tend to support extending this lockdown.
 
#50,943
#50,943
volfan_89 said:
Apparently the people trying to intimidate them.
Click to expand...
Let me ask you since Purple Tiger completely ignored my question while calling me fake.

How do you think a "normal" protest is supposed to work? Like what about a protest should make is succesful? What is that happens in a protest that makes it different than anything else we can do?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rickyvol77
#50,945
#50,945
Matt2496 said:
The overreaction will hurt human life though.
Click to expand...

Not as much as an underreaction.

Again, monday morning quarterbacking the response is easy. If you're in NYC, you don't think there's an overreaction.
 
#50,947
#50,947
rjd970 said:
I would say yes, we can. Simply say if you are over age x, and/or have conditions a, b, and c...or you are a caretaker of those groups, you NEED to self-isolate. Everyone else wear a mask and take protective measures.

Just the same as it is now, if you are not at risk you have nothing to worry about. If you are at risk and still go out, it’s on you. Either way, the economic and personal impacts on many would be a fraction of what it is now.

With the above scenario, I don’t see anything in the way of hard data that suggests the results would be any different then what we are seeing now. And very likely, we would be well on our way to herd immunity.

Looking at the numbers is good, but you absolutely have to look at the cost benefit as it relates to the economy, and that doesn’t seem to be done with any of your analysis. Cost/Benefit is absolutely a valid metric with any analysis.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with that - I'm not equipped to do the economic analysis, but would champion such an effort. I haven't argued you must stay locked down because a death or x deaths will occur if you don't. I do believe that continuing lock-downs in perpetuity would be disastrous for the economy. I do believe we need to find ways to open up and STAY opened. If isolating the most at risk can be done effectively and allows us to not only open but stay open, then I am absolutely for it. My focus on the numbers is to present my view of the actual situation and the risk we face. I hammer this point home not because I want to count bodies or blame Trump. I do it because if we do not recognize the gravity of the current situation or the potential risks that lie ahead - then we are going to do a piss poor job of managing them. How careful do you think we'll really be to handwash, social distance, and isolate the elderly if we think this is no big deal?

Because if we open up and don't properly mitigate the risks, we run a good chance of seeing a lot of areas back in a lockdown again. And that doesn't do us a lot of good.
 
#50,948
#50,948
rjd970 said:
I think it is possible to overreact, absolutely, especially if the longer term consequences of the overreaction are worse in both additional lives lost due to the economic impact and the economic impact itself.

I will say this, it’s funny that as soon as people and businesses really need help, there is $2T just laying around for them, but any other time it is capitalism and self-reliance as the meme of the day.

This whole thing is just flat absurd, and yes, an overreaction.
Click to expand...

In retrospect, it was an overreaction. Hindsight affords that luxury.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Grey_pilgrim
#50,949
#50,949
Septic said:
Not as much as an underreaction.

Again, monday morning quarterbacking the response is easy. If you're in NYC, you don't think there's an overreaction.
Click to expand...
It was on over reaction after an under reaction at first. Instead of basing everything on real numbers to make actual responsible decisions they have and continue to base all reactions on crap numbers.

And even with as bad as NYC has been they were able to handle it.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top