Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#50,901
#50,901
TennTradition said:
First question would seem to be - "does anyone need to isolate at all"

Answers to that seem to depend on the following
- Will slowing the spread allow you to establish better medical care (supply chains, PPE, treatments, etc.)
- Will not slowing the spread overwhelm your hospitals and lead to much higher death
- Will slowing the spread allow you to get a vaccine significantly faster than you will reach herd immunity while in "lockdown"

Once you've answered those that it is worth trying to slow this down (or not), then

Next question is - "can you effectively isolate only a portion of the population?"

This seems to be a very good solution if you can do it. I think it is proving incredibly difficult to do. My colleague whose entire family got it had their grandmother in lockdown in her house (and the rest of his family in their house 5 doors down). They were taking her groceries, but wiping them down. Somehow she got it. She either got it about 2-3 weeks before in one encounter they had about a week before anyone got sick or she got it from when they were transferring groceries. That is interesting to me because it suggests very little contact can spread, and so when you have more and more active carriers as we let it rip through the "low risk" population, seems risk of infecting the "at risk" gets pretty high.

Now that takes us back to the first questions....

We aren't going to stay locked down. We need to be prepared for what that means and try to mitigate the risks of it in every way we can.
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All interesting points. However, back to my point, again, if healthy and under 50, what data is there that shows you are at significant risk? We have increase deaths, which are bad, but it is limited to a focused segment of the population. Why the lockdown for everybody?
 
#50,904
#50,904
volfan_89 said:
These “grassroots” protesters where from other states, not just residents of the state where the protest happen. On top of that, the protesters are a very vocal minority, somewhere around 60% of Americans support the shutdown.

Only 12% of Americans say the measures where they live go too far. About twice as many people, 26%, believe the limits don’t go far enough. The majority of Americans — 61% — feel the steps taken by government officials to prevent infections of COVID-19 in their area are about right.

Outbreak poll: Most Americans favor continued lockdown
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If this were a true democracy, then mob rule would be acceptable. Too bad for you this is a republic.
 
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#50,906
#50,906
zeppelin128 said:
Not sure why your are addressing this at me. Probably bc you support this type of authoritarian stuff.
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I addressed your post and gave a backhanded slap to your boi pete in the process. All right are equal under the constitution , this even after saying there’s just one amendment that’s says specifically “shall not be infringed upon “ ever 2a supporter agrees with .
 
#50,907
#50,907
hog88 said:
Those protesters were peaceful, I haven't heard of 1 incident of violence.

When the government is no longer afraid of the citizenry you are no longer a citizen, you are a subject.
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It's sheer intimidation. If you can prove otherwise, go ahead.
 
#50,908
#50,908
rjd970 said:
Just out of curiosity, how do we know the hospitals would have been overwhelmed without a shutdown? Only thing I can think of is what happened in Italy as an example, and I would point out Italy has an older population and then raise you a Sweden example as the opposite.

More and more it seems to be slowly coming out we overreacted. Outside of NY, I’m struggling to see where the issue is or any evidence the shutdown on this scale was even needed.
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I guess overreaction is subjective to whether or not you were affected by the loss of a loved one versus the loss of a job. When it comes to the potential or protection of human life - is it possible to over react?

Hindsight will always be 20/20.
 
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#50,912
#50,912
rjd970 said:
Just out of curiosity, how do we know the hospitals would have been overwhelmed without a shutdown? Only thing I can think of is what happened in Italy as an example, and I would point out Italy has an older population and then raise you a Sweden example as the opposite.

More and more it seems to be slowly coming out we overreacted. Outside of NY, I’m struggling to see where the issue is or any evidence the shutdown on this scale was even needed.
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In retrospect, probably not but there’s new data coming out everyday. What if Sweden had failed or does fail? What if this spreads faster in rural areas, which tend to large older populations, without the shutdown and much smaller hospitals where there are very few ventilators?

There’s too many “what if” scenarios to truly know what the right answer is. I’m in favor of the shutdown at the time, but as new data is coming out, I think a slow reopen is likely the right step at this time. Should things start to nosedive, returning to the shutdown needs to be an option as well.
 
#50,913
#50,913
Septic said:
I guess overreaction is subjective to whether or not you were affected by the loss of a loved one versus the loss of a job. When it comes to the potential or protection of human life - is it possible to over react?

Hindsight will always be 20/20.
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The overreaction will hurt human life though.
 
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#50,917
#50,917
Septic said:
So we should be more reactionary? Is that what you're saying - make the number of closures commensurate with the number of deaths?
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At least proportional.

They used really bad projections to shut us down. And they are using inflated numbers to keep us shut down. It's ok for them to use trash numbers, but not ok for me to use real numbers?

The phase 1 re opening should have really been phase 1 of the close downs.

If they were willing to jump off a cliff to shut us down it seems like it would be ok to jump off another to open us back up. Instead they only use the cliff jumping when it suits them and ruins lives.

The local NPR radio station ran a story about Atlanta food banks seeing more demand than they ever did in the recession. And that many people now needing help with FOOD never needed it in the past, including the recession.

And food is a far higher need than medical care for the masses. Especially the young who stand like a 0.000001% chance of dying from this.
 
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#50,918
#50,918
LouderVol said:
So we shut down the country for 15k extra deaths?

Average death rate is 731* per 100k. That's 2,412,000 a year. Based on 2018 numbers which were down from 2017.

In the four months of 2020 on average we should have lost just shy of a million people. 949,300 with rounding down to keep the math easier.

So we are up 1.75% on DEATHS.

That's falls within the stastical variance we see from year to year. In the last 20 years the biggest increase from one year to the next was 5%. And no one freaked out.

*Sorry I had to adjust my number. The 863 was the worst mortality rate for a demographic in 2018. Not the overall see altered numbers.
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I like the idea of the math here. But I think you have to consider that first, this wasn't for a four month period and second, this was in the early phases of the outbreak.

This was from March 1-Apr 4, so US total deaths have risen from about 11,000 on Apr 4th to 64,000 on Apr 30th.

In the month of April, we went from 6394 to 63856, so roughly 57,500 deaths. Using your numbers and applying some approximate math, we can say we SHOULD have about 178,500 deaths each month. We've had 57,500 CV deaths this month. I don't know how many actual deaths we had this month - but we can see that the 57,500 number looks like a significant addition to what would normally happen.

Also, let's keep in mind that most states were well locked down by the third week of March (either by personal choice or edict). So, these deaths represent what is happening under a curve that is spread out vs. full-out transmission.

So, I like the idea of your math - but I draw a different conclusion from the approach.
 
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#50,919
#50,919
SmokyRiverDog said:
Is there anything unique about meat plant workers? Also, how do they live outside the plant?
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They wear protective uniforms including plastic/rubber gloves all day, without changing. The article said they aren't allowed to wash their hands often. I mean, after I thought about it I understood how they might be a little more susceptible than an auto worker.

I would assume in a house or apartment.
 
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#50,921
#50,921
Septic said:
I guess overreaction is subjective to whether or not you were affected by the loss of a loved one versus the loss of a job. When it comes to the potential or protection of human life - is it possible to over react?

Hindsight will always be 20/20.
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I think it is possible to overreact, absolutely, especially if the longer term consequences of the overreaction are worse in both additional lives lost due to the economic impact and the economic impact itself.

I will say this, it’s funny that as soon as people and businesses really need help, there is $2T just laying around for them, but any other time it is capitalism and self-reliance as the meme of the day.

This whole thing is just flat absurd, and yes, an overreaction.
 
#50,923
#50,923
0nelilreb said:
Now do Florida .
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Well, I don't live in Florida so its hard for me to say how seriously the virus was taken. But I can look at the mobility data from unacast.com and see that people's driving started dropping on March 13th, like the rest of the country and they decreased their travel right at the same amount as other states (about 50% down) by March 27.

California was about 3-5 days earlier than this.
 
#50,924
#50,924
Behr said:
They wear protective uniforms including plastic/rubber gloves all day, without changing. The article said they aren't allowed to wash their hands often. I mean, after I thought about it I understood how they might be a little more susceptible than an auto worker.

I would assume in a house or apartment.
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I think there is more to it than that.
 
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