Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[TennTradition]

For those of you interested in the models, take a look at this site maintained by Prof. Reich at UMASS.

Note that the outlier that is very high is the Johns Hopkins IDD model that was cited in that released presentation earlier today. Most other models are clustered around 90k or so deaths by 5/22. That is pacing for 100k by 6/1, which I think is about right.

https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub/

 

[PointGuard]

Approximately

It isn't prudent to cost millions upon millions of people their livelihoods because a portion of the population is extremely vulnerable to the virus.

Approx 20,000 people died since your post of 4/22/2020. Cases up to 1,176,905 up from approx 700,000. Do you wear a mask? Do you social distance.

no one on this forum knows anything for sure where this thing is headed

 

[utvolpj]

Approximately


Approx 20,000 people died since your post of 4/22/2020. Cases up to 1,176,905 up from approx 700,000. Do you wear a mask? Do you social distance.

no one on this forum knows anything for sure where this thing is headed

What % were healthy with no preexisting conditions? How are the large pop centers affecting the numbers?

May not know where it is headed but I'm headed back to the office soon

 

[TennTradition]

What % were healthy with no preexisting conditions? How are the large pop centers affecting the numbers?

May not know where it is headed but I'm headed back to the office soon

I get what you are saying, but think of how many seemingly healthy people are on blood pressure medicine, cholesterol medication, are borderline diabetic, etc. The pre-existing conditions envelope can fit a bunch of paper.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

So what strip bar have you been going to?

Hadnt been to I-65 Exit 22 in a long time. Last time I went, Medusa, The Bearded Lady and the Missing Link were dancing.

Maybe they can dance with their corona masks on.

 

[PointGuard]

Here we go bob weave and deflect. Do/did you social distance? Do you wear a mask? Tell us exactly what the finish looks like when this thing is finished (presumably /hopefully per Docs) as the summer comes to a close under the precept that Re-opening doesn’t cause it to reignite. The only thing that is clear so far from the data is social distancing is the only thing that has kept the lid on this

What % of who gets the flu had a flu shot? What % Werehealthy with no pre-existing conditions? Apples to apples is a tough concept to deflectors

 

[hUTch2002]

Health official: US should have banned travel from Europe earlier to slow spread of coronavirus

But waited on the China ban, right?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I get what you are saying, but think of how many seemingly healthy people are on blood pressure medicine, cholesterol medication, are borderline diabetic, etc. The pre-existing conditions envelope can fit a bunch of paper.

Who is going to make their medicines or butcher and harvest their food?

 

[PointGuard]

But waited on the China ban, right?

You do know that 40,000 people from China entered after Trump issued the China ban the first week of February (not in January as he said in one of his umpreen thousand lies). They came by way of Europe. The stable genius mishandled this from the get go.

 

[BisonVol]

Approximately


Approx 20,000 people died since your post of 4/22/2020. Cases up to 1,176,905 up from approx 700,000. Do you wear a mask? Do you social distance.

no one on this forum knows anything for sure where this thing is headed

Yes I have social distanced, and I have worn a mask the few times I've been in public. You're right, no one knows exactly where this is going, but I stand by that staying shut down completely isn't a sustainable approach.

It's terrible that so many have died. It's terrible that more will inevitably die. The truth is nothing we do is going to fully prevent people from catching the virus and dying of it. Preventing death was never the overarching purpose of shutting down, though. The purpose was to make sure we didn't overwhelm hospitals. Most places have passed that test with flying colors. Time to carefully open back up.

 

[RavinDave]

I get what you are saying, but think of how many seemingly healthy people are on blood pressure medicine, cholesterol medication, are borderline diabetic, etc. The pre-existing conditions envelope can fit a bunch of paper.

Dang, you just described me to a T. Plus, I turned 65 in January. Chances are I have either had it already or will have it within the next few months because total isolation is not possible and I have a business to run involving shipping and receiving. Just unloaded a truckload of drums from Germany this morning. Truck driver was wearing an N95 he got from his brother.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

You Cliff Clavin?

No, don't know him.

Edit: Just hit me with the Cheers reference.

 

[1972 Grad]

You do know that 40,000 people from China entered after Trump issued the China ban the first week of February (not in January as he said in one of his umpreen thousand lies). They came by way of Europe. The stable genius mishandled this from the get go.

Damn! Hillary or Papa Joe would have handled it so much better with the same information from the so called experts..

 

[hUTch2002]

Maybe Trump has the power to do this, but its such a bad look for the administration that they did this.

For one thing, it gives the appearance they are afraid of him telling the truth about both the status of the virus now and the mismanagement of things at the beginning.

For another, it gives the impression that the one guy there that really knows what he's doing is so far from Trump' viewpoint that they don't want that exposed.

It is exactly the guy's job to know the facts and relay them to us. To help us. And Trump and his administration shut him down from that crucial function just to save Trump's ego?

Bad form. Really bad.

But hasn’t Trump been listening to Fauci from the beginning? I thought that’s how we got to this shutdown.

 

[volbeast33]

Here we go bob weave and deflect. Do/did you social distance? Do you wear a mask? Tell us exactly what the finish looks like when this thing is finished (presumably /hopefully per Docs) as the summer comes to a close under the precept that Re-opening doesn’t cause it to reignite. The only thing that is clear so far from the data is social distancing is the only thing that has kept the lid on this

What % of who gets the flu had a flu shot? What % Werehealthy with no pre-existing conditions? Apples to apples is a tough concept to deflectors

I will go ahead and answer this question.... none of that stuff matters.... we have to get back to living our lives.

 

[1972 Grad]

Dang, you just described me to a T. Plus, I turned 65 in January. Chances are I have either had it already or will have it within the next few months because total isolation is not possible and I have a business to run involving shipping and receiving. Just unloaded a truckload of drums from Germany this morning. Truck driver was wearing an N95 he got from his brother.

Any congas?

 

[hUTch2002]

You do know that 40,000 people from China entered after Trump issued the China ban the first week of February (not in January as he said in one of his umpreen thousand lies). They came by way of Europe. The stable genius mishandled this from the get go.

You do know almost all of those were American citizens, right? And how many people were coming before the travel was shut down? I can tell you it was way more than the 40K over the last 2 months. Not to mention, do you really think the virus wasn’t already here? Sorry, if you want to complain about Trump then you need to find something legitimate. This isn’t the topic.

 

[TennTradition]

Who is going to make their medicines or butcher and harvest their food?

Maybe I misunderstood him - but I thought he was saying of those who had died how many didn't have pre-existing conditions. I was just making a comment that pre-existing conditions covers a huge portion of our country.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

@volfanhill These bartenders were making $875 a week in unemployment. Some were mad to come back to a half open bar/restaurant because untill it's fully open they know they won't make what they were making pre-virus or get to the $875 a week unemployment number. Some would just rather stay home and make $875 a week.

Your alls staff pulling the $875 a week too that works in the restaurants? Have you heard the same complaints?

 

[TennTradition]

CDC released another data update, so I updated my plot for April New York deaths (more April 2020 deaths will be continue to be populated as more death certificates are processed). Amazing the anomaly they dealt with up there in April.....which was following weeks of being shut down. This thing ran away in a hurry up there.

 

[volfanhill]

@volfanhill These bartenders were making $875 a week in unemployment. Some were mad to come back to a half open bar/restaurant because untill it's fully open they know they won't make what they were making pre-virus or get to the $875 a week unemployment number. Some would just rather stay home and make $875 a week.

Your alls staff pulling the $875 a week too that works in the restaurants? Have you heard the same complaints?

Yes it’s a huge problem. We are having to tell them we will notify the unemployment office if they don’t return. Currently the only exceptions are those with childcare issues, compromised health, or caring for elderly family.

 

[PointGuard]

Yes I have social distanced, and I have worn a mask the few times I've been in public. You're right, no one knows exactly where this is going, but I stand by that staying shut down completely isn't a sustainable approach.

It's terrible that so many have died. It's terrible that more will inevitably die. The truth is nothing we do is going to fully prevent people from catching the virus and dying of it. Preventing death was never the overarching purpose of shutting down, though. The purpose was to make sure we didn't overwhelm hospitals. Most places have passed that test with flying colors. Time to carefully open back up.

Thanks for recognizing a social obligation to follow the rules. It’s not fair to those putting their lives on the line dealing with those who are ill to recklessly add the the quantity of ill because someone feels their “rights” are more equal than anothers’

I’m not opposed to opening the “economy” (misnomer). Got to start it sooner or later. But I’m not in favor of doing it outside of the guidelines authored by Faucci/Birx et al as in the state of GA when the slope of their curve remains positive. Controlled chaos

 

[RavinDave]

Any congas?

No but arguably enough silica to satisfy even the lustiest bust lovers.

 

[BisonVol]

Thanks for recognizing a social obligation to follow the rules. It’s not fair to those putting their lives on the line dealing with those who are ill to reckless add the the quantity of ill because someone feels their “rights” are more equal than another’s’

I’m not opposed to opening the “economy” (misnomer). Got to start it sooner or later. But I’m not in favor of doing it outside of the guidelines authored by Faucci/Birx et al as in the state of GA when the slope of their curve remains positive

That's very fair. Georgia is definitely approaching it their own way. Hopefully it works out for them.

 

[utvolpj]

Maybe I misunderstood him - but I thought he was saying of those who had died how many didn't have pre-existing conditions. I was just making a comment that pre-existing conditions covers a huge portion of our country.

It does to an extent but there are different levels. Age seems to be a huge red flag too. The vast majority should be back to work rescuing this economy while there's still some left