Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[Tennesseefan2019]

I wouldn't bet on that.

I think there will be a red wave in November the Democrats are doing a great job of cutting their own throats

 

[CagleMtnVol]

My issue with Lee is after saying he would not lock the state down he buckled to the pressure and locked us down for a month. There were counties with zero cases or 1 or 2 cases, why did those counties need to be locked down? I just don’t think he’s a very good leader

The bringing in refugees did it for me.

 

[hog88]

If some of those Hooters girls need support I am looking for a new GF.

Single moms are expensive.

 

[VolStrom]

I think there will be a red wave in November the Democrats are doing a great job of cutting their own throats

There is so much potential for Trump by just using Nancy and Joe's statements unedited in commercials. Nancy showing off her ice cream collection and Joe bumbling on about anything would be where I'd start. The GOP is licking their chops on this election.

 

[LouderVol]

You ever been to the Hooters in Alcoa? Holy fook batman they were down right ugly when I was in there.

Thankfully I am down in Atlanta where the Hooters crew arent the day time dancers at the Pink Pony.

 

[LouderVol]

Single moms are expensive.

In this case it's a good thing women are allowed to kill their children in this country.

I am being selfish here.

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

In this case it's a good thing women are allowed to kill their children in this country.

I am being selfish here.

 

[JOEY'S ALL VOL !!!]

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

View attachment 281655

Tell them you can't wear a mask because you're a paroled felon

 

[TennTradition]

@TennTradition hopefully I am tagging the right person.

Have you any updated numbers for Georgia?

Georgia deaths/day is stable to maybe slightly rising. There tends to be noise, so I wouldn't call this a trend yet. The drop in deaths/day we had sustained for a few weeks has stopped for the last week. But no huge alarm bells in that it isn't increasing.

 

[LouderVol]

Georgia deaths/day is stable to maybe slightly rising. There tends to be noise, so I wouldn't call this a trend yet. The drop in deaths/day we had sustained for a few weeks has stopped for the last week. But no huge alarm bells in that it isn't increasing.

Good news. I figured there would be a brief spike, and then things would start dying down again in about another 3 weeks.

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

My family is going to St. Augustine next week. We have 2 beach houses rented for a group of 21. We've gone back and forth and watched the FL response closely.
It's a go.

Do you have your obituary already typed out?

 

[BigOrangeD]

It’s a test trial. Hope it helps.

It will. Has already been successful.

 

[TennTradition]

Good news. I figured there would be a brief spike, and then things would start dying down again in about another 3 weeks.

The hard part on this is that conditions are not the same as they were when we were this "mobile" several months ago. Temperatures are considerably warmer (estimates are transmission risk might decrease 25% in warmer weather, meaning we could be 25% more mobile than we were a few months ago with the same risk of spread) and people are being more careful to generally social distance - not a lot of hand shaking, hugging, etc. "Going back to normal" isn't necessarily going back to normal and that will help.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

My family is going to St. Augustine next week. We have 2 beach houses rented for a group of 21. We've gone back and forth and watched the FL response closely.
It's a go.

How's that social distancing?

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

HOROWITZ: The coronavirus death rate has been inflated all over the country

 

[TennTradition]

European countries beginning to roll out their AB testing seroprevalance results. Results aren't great if you've been rooting for herd immunity. Not sure what the error bars are on these. At this point, I think we need to hope warm weather allows us to get a breather this summer.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

 

[BigOrangeD]

European countries beginning to roll out their AB testing seroprevalance results. Results aren't great if you've been rooting for herd immunity. Not sure what the error bars are on these. At this point, I think we need to hope warm weather allows us to get a breather this summer.

Spain ~5%
Italy ~5%
Sweden ~5%
Denmark ~1%
Norway < 1%

I was wondering if they did more testing like us if those rates would go down significantly. If I recall, I don't think they are testing at as high as a percentage but I could be wrong.

 

[TennTradition]

HOROWITZ: The coronavirus death rate has been inflated all over the country

That article starts off on a really bad footing.

Colorado did not revise anything down. They didn't admit to any overcounting or correct any errors. They added to their state-reported death total a second death category. That death number is designed to match the same number reported by the NCHS in their provisional death report (before a death will appear in that report, the death certificate has to be received and processed by the NCHS, which takes on average 7 days, but the data continue coming in for weeks). Also, that number only includes deaths that occurred prior to the previous Saturday, so can be a week lagged even if all death certificates were instantaneous (which they aren't).

Below is some analysis I completed this morning. It shows that COVID deaths are still tracking within "Excess Deaths" and do not exceed filed death certificates when corrected for lag. I compare the state-reported daily deaths (bars and line for moving average) vs. the CDC COVID Provisional Death number vs. the CDC "Excess Death" Number which compares total deaths that week vs. the average for that week in the previous 5 years.

To correct for the lag, I modeled the last 6 weeks of death progressions for the "COVID deaths" and "All Deaths" categories and applied the curvature of how the lag played out and the deaths grew in over time.

 

[volfanjustin]

The bringing in refugees did for me.

That was the first thing that gave me doubt

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

That article starts off on a really bad footing.

Colorado did not revise anything down. They didn't admit to any overcounting or correct any errors. They added to their state-reported death total a second death category. That death number is designed to match the same number reported by the NCHS in their provisional death report (before a death will appear in that report, the death certificate has to be received and processed by the NCHS, which takes on average 7 days, but the data continue coming in for weeks). Also, that number only includes deaths that occurred prior to the previous Saturday, so can be a week lagged even if all death certificates were instantaneous (which they aren't).

Below is some analysis I completed this morning. It shows that COVID deaths are still tracking within "Excess Deaths" and do not exceed filed death certificates when corrected for lag. I compare the state-reported daily deaths (bars and line for moving average) vs. the CDC COVID Provisional Death number vs. the CDC "Excess Death" Number which compares total deaths that week vs. the average for that week in the previous 5 years.

To correct for the lag, I modeled the last 6 weeks of death progressions for the "COVID deaths" and "All Deaths" categories and applied the curvature of how the lag played out and the deaths grew in over time.

View attachment 281664

More and more people are believing the official bullshiite story less and less as time goes on I don't believe it at all and I don't wear a mask or practice social distancing

 

[luthervol]

So with 21 friends and family members, what are the odds you come back in a better mood?

98.7%

 

[TennTradition]

I was wondering if they did more testing like us if those rates would go down significantly. If I recall, I don't think they are testing at as high as a percentage but I could be wrong.

These are antibody tests, so they represent the total fraction of the population who has had it. I don't know how each country designed their tests - but in general, you seek a random (demographics, weighted for geography and pop density, etc.) assortment of people to test for antibodies and then back out the average % infected across the country. So, not really subject to the issue we are seeing here with PCR testing and how more testing drives down infected rate as you test more people who don't have it currently (i.e., PCR testing by design isn't random but becomes more random as you expand testing).

 

[TennTradition]

More and more people are believing the official bullshiite story less and less as time goes on I don't believe it at all and I don't wear a mask or practice social distancing

Believe what you wish - but know that the Colorado stuff is BS.

 

[Sandman 423]

I'd read the study before you post about its findings. ACP Journals

They took four patients ill with Covid who were coughing. They had them cough into the masks instead of an elbow. Infectious particles were then swabbed from the outside of the mask, as one would expect.

Their point was that it is essential to wash your hands immediately after removing your surgical mask, not that surgical masks should not be worn.

We all know that standing face to face with a coughing Covid patient is a bad idea.

From the conclusions:

You are making my point for me with what you attached at the bottom.

We do not know whether masks shorten the travel distance of droplets during coughing. Further study is needed to recommend whether face masks decrease transmission of virus from asymptomatic individuals or those with suspected COVID-19 who are not coughing.

I'm not sure what you disagree with me on.