Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[BeardedVol]

We didnt do 60 million H1N1 tests. That's the extrapolated number. I cant even find a total number of tests. But this one national lab system did about 75k tests. Most others did about the same number overall. Would love to see a total. But I doubt you are getting much more than a million actual tests.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjABegQIDBAG&usg=AOvVaw3bpYAB82X2u0n8Izg9kDAF

So if you want to use 3% for Covid you need to use something like 1% for H1N1. Probably higher. Because the example above says they were getting about 50% positive, vs our current Covid testing of about 5% positive. But again much more actual testing.

Even with the multipliers you used on Covid dont come close to the multipliers used on H1N1 when they extrapolated the numbers.

You need to educate yourself on how the CDC comes up with their influenza estimates: How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC.

The current mortality rates, is 3% in the US based off of the information on hand (down from the initial 5.9%), globally it was estimated at 3.4% back in March.

Is that number going to go down when we determine a way to estimate the total number of untested cases? Yes. By how much, no clue, best estimates that I've seen came from a UK study estimated the final mortality rate will fall between .7-1.2%.

Will it ever be as low as the .02% of H1N1 to satisfy @Halph66 's implied belief that H1N1 was somehow worse and we didn't "freak out" over it? No.

For Covid 19's mortality rate to fall to .02%, we'd need to nearly triple the population and have them all get infected, and not have another person die from it. At our current death count, even if we assumed every single person in the United States (328 million) has been infected, we'd still end up with a mortality rate of .05%, twice as high as the estimated H1N1 mortality rate, and that's just using the numbers as of today, and not the final count.

So not even in the most fantastical of scenarios, is Covid 19 mortality ever going to be better than 2.5x greater than H1N1.

 

[bamawriter]

Now compare it to last August

I suppose it's a matter of perspective, but do you consider any restriction a "lockdown"?

 

[Halph66]

There was an H1N1 vaccine. But to your point, there was no election in 2009. If there were there would be none of what we see now. Why? Obama. The man could literally have dropped a deuce on the Constitution and wiped his aaa with the American flag and people would have cheered him.

That's my point.

 

[utvolpj]

I suppose it's a matter of perspective, but do you consider any restriction a "lockdown"?

I consider limits that cause many businesses to close a lockdown. Also limits on number of people you can associate with in public. States closing all schools. Those sure mimic a lockdown or at the very least are ultra restrictive govt rules regarding movement and association

 

[BeardedVol]

Has nothing to do with math and more to do with common sense and understanding terms.

Go find a current or recent scientific journal estimating a 3% mortality rate. Please come back when you have found that, not before.

So you've got nothing, got it.

 

[USAFgolferVol]

That's my point.

A point of pure and baseless speculation

 

[LouderVol]

You need to educate yourself on how the CDC comes up with their influenza estimates: How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC.

The current mortality rates, is 3% in the US based off of the information on hand (down the initial 5.9%), globally it was estimated at 3.4% back in March.

Is that number going to go down when we determine a way to estimate the total number of untested cases? Yes. By how much, no clue, best estimates that I've seen came from a UK study estimated the final mortality rate will fall between .7-1.2%.

Will it ever be as low as the .02% of H1N1 to satisfy @Halph66 's implied belief that H1N1 was somehow worse and we didn't "freak out" over it? No.

For Covid 19's mortality rate to fall to .02%, we'd need to nearly triple the population and have them all get infected, and not have another person die from it. At our current death count, even if we assumed every single person in the United States (328 million) has been infected, we'd still end up with a mortality rate of .05%, twice as high as the estimated H1N1 mortality rate, and that's just using the numbers as of today, and not the final count.

So not even in the most fantastical of scenarios, is Covid 19 mortality ever going to be better than 2.5x greater than H1N1.

It's simple. What multiplier did they use for H1N1? Now use it for Covid. You are falling into the earlier trap of comparing real numbers to comparisons. I did the math earlier in this thread and the Flu has a 3ish% case mortality rate if you apply the same logic.

And that's using a much more strict application of dying FROM the flu to dying WITH Covid. The Covid numbers are generated from data that is, relatively, designed to INCREASE the counts vs standard practice.

I am not arguing that Covid isnt worse. It's easily the worst I have seen in my short life. But it's not nearly as bad as the fear mongers want it to be. And they use funky one off math to make weighted arguments when actual comparisons show something less. Which is why I called out your application of this number.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

This is gonna piss the rona cheerleaders off

 

[sjt18]

I don't know, I'm not a scientist. However, if Trump believes this is a hoax/overblown/politically motivated or something that would disappear I'd veto all this spending. Then you'd see states be forced to open up.

I don't think that the virus being real is lost on Trump. It is perfectly reasonable that he resents how it is being used by the media. If this were "President Hillary Clinton" and she had done the exact same things... this same media would be talking about her heroic leadership and level headed approach. In fact, she could have done much less and gotten praise. Trump is likely angry because the Covid narrative has been used to hand cuff him.

No. You wouldn't do that unless you had decided to drop out of the race. The media would crucify him if he tried it. Again, it wasn't that long ago that media propaganda accused Republicans of wanting to throw grandma off the train for suggesting reasonable reductions in social program PLANNED INCREASES. No one has proposed an actual "cut" to welfare in ages. The media attacks any conservative who even suggests cutting projected annual increases which are almost always at least double the rate of inflation.

Other than CNN and other leftist propaganda machines... I'm not sure where the idea comes from that Trump considers the virus itself a hoax. It is a serious health care issue that has been blown completely out of proportion in part by the way "deaths" have been counted. When even that began to not be "scary" due to a steep drop in deaths as treatment methods were discovered and New Yorkers stopped being the primary counters... the narrative transitioned over night to "cases".



Here's what we know about "cases". At least 35% of those cases will be completely asymptomatic. The majority of the rest will have mild symptoms that they would have treated like a cold or the flu if they had not known it was the black plague... errrrrr, Covid-19 due to a test. I believe the number of cases considered "severe" were under 10% last time I saw those numbers... seems like maybe 5% or less.

Hospitalizations are a VERY objective way for judging how severe a virus is. On current pace, Covid hospitalizations appear to be headed for about half what the flu hospitalizations were two years ago. About 350,000 Americans have been hospitalized for Covid in the last 6 months. Two years ago the US recorded 950,000 hospitalizations during the 7 months of "flu season". Hospitalizations are also the way CDC "estimates" flu deaths. They don't actually count them and certainly have no where near the accuracy of "Covid" death counts.

 

[McDad]

Tennessee's updated fatality rate is 1.05%. McRib just shared it with me. Additionally, the patients contracting it are doing better than earlier in the year. The nursing home residents are still getting their butt's kicked, unfortunately.

 

[USAFgolferVol]

I don't think that the virus being real is lost on Trump. It is perfectly reasonable that he resents how it is being used by the media. If this were "President Hillary Clinton" and she had done the exact same things... this same media would be talking about her heroic leadership and level headed approach. In fact, she could have done much less and gotten praise. Trump is likely angry because the Covid narrative has been used to hand cuff him.

No. You wouldn't do that unless you had decided to drop out of the race. The media would crucify him if he tried it. Again, it wasn't that long ago that media propaganda accused Republicans of wanting to throw grandma off the train for suggesting reasonable reductions in social program PLANNED INCREASES. No one has proposed an actual "cut" to welfare in ages. The media attacks any conservative who even suggests cutting projected annual increases which are almost always at least double the rate of inflation.

Other than CNN and other leftist propaganda machines... I'm not sure where the idea comes from that Trump considers the virus itself a hoax. It is a serious health care issue that has been blown completely out of proportion in part by the way "deaths" have been counted. When even that began to not be "scary" due to a steep drop in deaths as treatment methods were discovered and New Yorkers stopped being the primary counters... the narrative transitioned over night to "cases".



Here's what we know about "cases". At least 35% of those cases will be completely asymptomatic. The majority of the rest will have mild symptoms that they would have treated like a cold or the flu if they had not known it was the black plague... errrrrr, Covid-19 due to a test. I believe the number of cases considered "severe" were under 10% last time I saw those numbers... seems like maybe 5% or less.

Hospitalizations are a VERY objective way for judging how severe a virus is. On current pace, Covid hospitalizations appear to be headed for about half what the flu hospitalizations were two years ago. About 350,000 Americans have been hospitalized for Covid in the last 6 months. Two years ago the US recorded 950,000 hospitalizations during the 7 months of "flu season". Hospitalizations are also the way CDC "estimates" flu deaths. They don't actually count them and certainly have no where near the accuracy of "Covid" death counts.

Baseless speculation here. No fan of Hillary here either

 

[rjd970]

We had the option to choose in school and did.

I have concerns it wont be much better than what you are experiencing.

We had a choice too and chose in-school but they are forcing everyone virtual for at least the first 9 weeks. Kill me now.

 

[sjt18]

People who don't believe COVID is a big deal and don't believe in taking any kind of precaution themselves or people who think this is all a big political hoax designed to get Trump out of office.

I believe it is a big deal even if it is nothing more than what is likely... essentially another flu on top of the flu. The two together are a monster even once you account for early Covid related deaths that occurred because doctors had no established treatment methods.

I believe in taking precautions based in sound science... not speculations and especially not when those speculations use a series of "leaps" that ultimately claim that masks can control spread by non-symptomatic Covid patients because they lowered the spread of the flu by symptomatic patients. Keeping distance is generally a good idea if you want to avoid getting sick. Being outside in the sunshine not only won't get you sick... it helps your immune system. Air filtration systems are available that will take particles much smaller than Covid out of the air. That instead of moronic mask mandates would have made restaurants, bars, schools, offices, buses, trains, etc... safe places to be.

I also track current cases in my area carefully. Right now... 0.06% of the county where I work has the virus and they're in quarantine. If you extrapolate that to account for the unproven potential of asymptomatic spreaders then roughly 0.2% of the people in my area MAY be carrying the virus unaware. So... I do NOT remain in close contact with pretty much anyone but even if I did the chances I would randomly do so are around 2 in 1000. I have educated myself on viral load and how to avoid "dangerous" areas. The most risky thing I've done RE Covid is go out to eat a handful of times in a town that has the low infection rate I just mentioned.

It isn't a hoax. But it does not have to be for the left and especially the MSM to turn it into a narrative purposed to defeating Trump.

We had folks dying in the Middle East when W was President. That was no hoax. But the media emphasized daily body counts with the intent of hurting him politically. When Obama became President, soldiers didn't stop dying... but the daily body counts DID STOP.

There is EXTREME bias in the media today... and the way they report this virus and every other issue reflects it.

 

[BP4Prez]

Bad form unless he's donating the proceeds

Gov. Cuomo writing book about leading NY through COVID-19 pandemic

Yeah right...

 

[0nelilreb]

That’s crazy

 

[hUTch2002]

So is Trump unable to recognize this or does he not care. He's spent trillions in response to Covid.

Is he dumb?

Trying to buy the election?

Or is he this concerned about Covid?

He's spending so much money, paying people more to not work, letting them skip out on rent and student loan payments...I halfway expect him to replace Pence with Bernie. It's massive socialism.

I voted for Trump in 2016 and will again this election but I agree that the spending during this virus hasn’t been handled well. I do recognize he was in a tough spot with this thing though. I’m not sure than any POTUS would have come out of this thing looking good.

 

[sjt18]

Baseless speculation here. No fan of Hillary here either

No. It really isn't baseless. Biden has made overtly racist statements.... the media forgives and suppresses those statements. Trent Lott did nothing more than say nice words to Strom Thurmond and the media wouldn't let it go until he stepped down as leader of the Senate.

The story that Obama had homosexual affairs in Chicago had legs... until 3 of the men he supposedly had affairs with ended up in early graves... two by unsolved, execution style murders. Maybe he and everyone around him is completely innocent... but the media didn't even investigate it. I suspect that most people here don't even know it was a thing.

The media has propped up the Russian collusion story KNOWING that the central piece of evidence was a false dossier. Yet they quickly swept the Biden-Ukraine thing under the rug. Both stories could be false... but the media reporting damaged Trump while the lack of media scrutiny helped Biden.

Take a look at the "accusation" that "must have been true" concerning Kavanaugh. Then compare to Virginia's Lt Governor and many other REAL Dem scandals.

There is bias in the way things are reported. There is much GREATER bias in WHAT things get reported.

So no... predicting how media bias would impact this story is not "baseless speculation". It is a prediction of future behavior based on past behavior.

 

[allvol123]

So you've got nothing, got it.

And you came back as ignorant as ever. Failed to follow instructions.

 

[sjt18]

I voted for Trump in 2016 and will again this election but I agree that the spending during this virus hasn’t been handled well. I do recognize he was in a tough spot with this thing though. I’m not sure than any POTUS would have come out of this thing looking good.

I can pretty much guarantee that ANY Dem President would have.... in fact they would have been made heroes.

Compare the way Obama's drone assassinations were reported compared to Trump taking out that Iranian terrorist general. Obama was a hero. Trump was a villain. Even Obama's move on bin Laden was a raid on a supposed ally in the middle of the night... without their permission. It was a good move but the media could have reported that from an entirely different angle and would have had there not been a "D" beside his name.

 

[NurseGoodVol]

It doesn't need to be over for us to open up. That kind of belief is completely asinine

Schools are open and so are parks so we're getting closer. That's happening despite the efforts of some groups who wish for everything to stop

Almost as if there's an organized effort to destroy the economy.

 

[USAFgolferVol]

No. It really isn't baseless. Biden has made overtly racist statements.... the media forgives and suppresses those statements. Trent Lott did nothing more than say nice words to Strom Thurmond and the media wouldn't let it go until he stepped down as leader of the Senate.

The story that Obama had homosexual affairs in Chicago had legs... until 3 of the men he supposedly had affairs with ended up in early graves... two by unsolved, execution style murders. Maybe he and everyone around him is completely innocent... but the media didn't even investigate it. I suspect that most people here don't even know it was a thing.

The media has propped up the Russian collusion story KNOWING that the central piece of evidence was a false dossier. Yet they quickly swept the Biden-Ukraine thing under the rug. Both stories could be false... but the media reporting damaged Trump while the lack of media scrutiny helped Biden.

Take a look at the "accusation" that "must have been true" concerning Kavanaugh. Then compare to Virginia's Lt Governor and many other REAL Dem scandals.

There is bias in the way things are reported. There is much GREATER bias in WHAT things get reported.

So no... predicting how media bias would impact this story is not "baseless speculation". It is a prediction of future behavior based on past behavior.

You must not watch Fox and Newsmaxx. Not sure if you know or not, but they are media outlets as well

 

[508mikey]

Wuhan hosts massive water park party as coronavirus concerns recede | WGN-TV

 

[sjt18]

You must not watch Fox and Newsmaxx. Not sure if you know or not, but they are media outlets as well

That is your dodge of overwhelming left wing bias in the media?

So 2 sources out of how many creates "balance"? Those are not considered "mainstream" media sources... and they don't have a history or public perception of being that. You ask most people and they've been told and come to believe that FNC is "conservative" while CNN, WaPo, ABC, et al are "centrist" or even "unbiased".

I don't watch very much broadcast news of any kind. They hype up the emotion and generally come up WAY short on facts.

I see FNC occasionally. They're going out of their way to not be too much in the tank for Trump in their straight news. Their talk shows and panels are decidedly right of center.

Newsmax isn't even carried on all tv services... and they counter say... NBC? The NYT's?

Also, FNC generally follows the same narrative as the MSM. They report it differently but you won't find a lot of different stories being reported.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

So why the difference reaction to Covid-19 in 2020 as compared to H1N1 (Swine Flu) in 2009?

• Covid-19; 4 million infected in the U.S.
• H1N1; 60.8 million infected in the U.S.

There was no vaccine. 151,700 to 575,400 people died world wide. Zero panic. Zero over reaction.

There was an H1N1 vaccine. But to your point, there was no election in 2009. If there were there would be none of what we see now. Why? Obama. The man could literally have dropped a deuce on the Constitution and wiped his aaa with the American flag and people would have cheered him.

 

[sjt18]

Wuhan hosts massive water park party as coronavirus concerns recede | WGN-TV

Yep. It can end if the media will stop blowing up a narrative.

I found this a little while ago. If you want to see how this thing "ends"... then just check out NY's daily case and death graphs. An Israeli doctor predicted this trend line BEFORE Covid hit the US in force. It runs a 6-8 week cycle then subsides regardless of what we do to try to stop it. Once it gets to an area... it will climb, peak, and drop.

The states most successful at "flattening the curve"... have done nothing more than stretch out the misery- see Michigan.

This is why I think the Big 10 and Pac 12 are going to look like idiots by October. We may even see allowance for full capacity by the end of the season.

United States COVID-19 Tracking Dashboard