Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,826
#90,826
utvolpj said:
That was not my argument. You seem confused but I would bet an airtight echo chamber does that to people
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You're not following the dialectic. I responded to a guy who said "always error on the side of freedom." Relying on the commonly accepted meaning of the phrase "always," which means in every instance and without exception, I pointed out that this principle would entail the rejection of all safety and environmental regulations, which error on the side of protecting people by limiting someone's freedom. I was then accused of attacking a strawman argument. But a strawman argument is one that attacks a weaker or different argument than the one actually made. I attacked the actual argument made. The principle of charity says if there's a reasonable, logical interpretation than can be applied to an argument made, it should be applied. The principle of charity does not require me to assume the author meant to make a completely different argument that is not supported by the words he used. Charity thus does not require me to interpret "always" to mean "sometimes".
 
#90,827
#90,827
OHvol40 said:
If you’re concerned about the numbers skewing because of false positives, certainly you’ve looked into false negatives as well... right?... just so you can get the full breadth of information available in order to obtain the truth. We are after the truth here, correct?
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I took the 2% you presented and extrapolated. If you now want me to extrapolate for false negatives provide a number similar to how you did before.

My point about the numbers is even the CDC says that 4 to 8 times as many people have had Covid as tested positive. Seems like that conclusion catches your false negatives too. So your number isnt missed in the end. We dont do a similar tracking of false positives so that number can stand on it's own.
 
#90,831
#90,831
evillawyer said:
No, I'm plumbing the principle upon which his argument is based. He says always error on the side of freedom. If he truly subscribes to that principle, he should believe that all safety and environmental regulations (which, through the force of law, constrain somebody's freedom) should be done away with (as we should "error on the side of freedom").
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No. There are things that are without dispute that hurt others like pouring oil in a river and its indisputable that it's safety hazard to smoke in an explosive environment. All of the covid restrictions, shutdowns and mandates can be disputed.
 
#90,832
#90,832
evillawyer said:
To show that an argument is bunk is not to advance any positive argument of my own, right? To argue that "only freedom matters" is a misguided principle, does not commit me to any position on the relative value of freedom (other than maybe it lacks absolute value), much less to the view that freedom has no value.
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The argument is "when in doubt freedom over restriction".
 
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#90,833
#90,833
hog88 said:
No. There are things that are without dispute that hurt others like pouring oil in a river and its indisputable that it's safety hazard to smoke in an explosive environment. All of the covid restrictions, shutdowns and mandates can be disputed.
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#90,834
#90,834
evillawyer said:
It's a common dialectical move. You show the absurdity of the position advanced by showing what it entails in the hope that the person advancing the position will revise it.

I would be attacking a strawman only if I attacked a claim he did not really make. But my argument expressly rested on his own statement.
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but you misrepresented the position. he said err (error) on the side of freedom which indicates a recognition that interests must be balanced and he says the scales should be weighted towards one of the interests.

your strawman converted that to him saying there is only one interest (freedom) and nothing else matters.
 
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#90,835
#90,835
LouderVol said:
I took the 2% you presented and extrapolated. If you now want me to extrapolate for false negatives provide a number similar to how you did before.

My point about the numbers is even the CDC says that 4 to 8 times as many people have had Covid as tested positive. Seems like that conclusion catches your false negatives too. So your number isnt missed in the end. We dont do a similar tracking of false positives so that number can stand on it's own.
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It largely depends on how many days after infection as to the likelihood for a false negative, so of course its relative. On day zero after infection, false negative rates are 100%. At the onset of symptoms (roughly day 4-5 after infection) the false negative rate is around 38%. A week after the first day of infection false negatives fall at or below 10%.

Given this, the generally accepted false negative rate is around 20%.
 
#90,836
#90,836
OHvol40 said:
It largely depends on how many days after infection as to the likelihood for a false negative, so of course its relative. On day zero after infection, false negative rates are 100%. At the onset of symptoms (roughly day 4-5 after infection) the false negative rate is around 38%. A week after the first day of infection false negatives fall at or below 10%.

Given this, the generally accepted false negative rate is around 20%.
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Which would be less than even the most modest 4x multiplier the CDC uses.

Also this assumes that everyone only takes the test once. Which we know for Covid is not the case.

If I test negative today but positive two weeks from now, was today an actual false negative, or was I actually not infected? Impossible to say when someone gets it.
 
#90,842
#90,842
DC_Vol said:
I bet they are hoping for normal attendance. I doubt that happens...and nothing to do with COVID.
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Yea, it will be interesting. I've moved on. Some wont go perhaps because they are still worried about covid, others wont go for various other reasons.
 
#90,843
#90,843
allvol123 said:
Yea, it will be interesting. I've moved on. Some wont go perhaps because they are still worried about covid, others wont go for various other reasons.
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I dropped my season tickets and had nothing to do with COVID. I’ll still prob try to make a game just to get back to Knoxville. UT football is unfortunately just not much fun these days.
 
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#90,844
#90,844
SIAP - the AL Gov split the baby today and announced mask mandate will stay in place until April 9th then it's gone and won't come back.

Her talk was full of "I respect the citizens to be responsible" but apparently they can't be responsible for another month.

The best part was she asked a reporter to take of his mask because she couldn't hear the question.
 
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#90,845
#90,845
evillawyer said:
To show that an argument is bunk is not to advance any positive argument of my own, right? To argue that "only freedom matters" is a misguided principle, does not commit me to any position on the relative value of freedom (other than maybe it lacks absolute value), much less to the view that freedom has no value.
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I'll spell it out for you:

Each case must be taken on a case by case basis but when it's a close call, err on the side of freedom. It's not that tough
 
#90,846
#90,846
My inlaws are getting the vaccine next week and then heading to visit my BIL. MIL called to tell them the news, BIL says that sounds good but is the vaccine clinic drive thru or walk in?
f29.png
 
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#90,847
#90,847
mr.checkerboards said:
My only argument from all that is, im not sure it was an accident that it got released.
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Due to the Chinese, I doubt we'll ever know for sure. I think came from the lab. What I'm not sure is whether it was released on purpose or by accident. The animal to human explanation I'm not buyin'
 
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#90,848
#90,848
DC_Vol said:
I dropped my season tickets and had nothing to do with COVID. I’ll still prob try to make a game just to get back to Knoxville. UT football is unfortunately just not much fun these days.
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Scalpers are gonna be plentiful and desperate. They will be throwing them at you at kickoff.
 
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