Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#91,826
#91,826
volinbham said:
a couple weeks ago you told us this wasn't possible - another surge was coming
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I think what would be a surge from more transmissible variants is basically being countered by the vaccine, resulting in a flatline of very high levels of spread. Some NYC neighborhoods have been parked at 12-15% positivity for weeks.

About 25% of the NY population has had at least one dose. If we were anywhere close to reaching herd immunity, those cases would be nose diving like a Trump-run business.
 
#91,827
#91,827
evillawyer said:
I think what would be a surge from more transmissible variants is basically being countered by the vaccine, resulting in a flatline of very high levels of spread. Some NYC neighborhoods have been parked at 12-15% positivity for weeks.

About 25% of the NY population has had at least one dose. If we were anywhere close to reaching herd immunity, those cases would be nose diving like a Trump-run business.
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wrong

you continue to use test positivity data which is a biased measure - a while back I used the NYC data to show that neighborhoods with high levels of testing have low positivity and those with low levels have higher positivity. There is no baseline metric (eg same proportion of the population being tested and randomly chosen).

I'll also remind you how you told everyone Texas was in the midst of a surge after one or two days of uptick but as I pointed out then it was not enough data to be a trend and was likely the result of testing that was delayed during the deep freeze. A current look at the data shows I was correct and you were wrong.

Bottomline, you have a poor track record of looking at data and translating that into conclusions.
 
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#91,829
#91,829
To further the explanation on NYC.

If the % positive (the number EL is using as his evidence) is flat (at 6.5%; not 12 - 15%) but confirmed cases are down 8.6% what is the explanation?

If the formula for % positive is: % positive = (confirmed cases/# molecular tests) and confirmed cases is down what else has to be true to end up with the same % positive?
 
#91,830
#91,830
evillawyer said:
I think what would be a surge from more transmissible variants is basically being countered by the vaccine, resulting in a flatline of very high levels of spread. Some NYC neighborhoods have been parked at 12-15% positivity for weeks.

About 25% of the NY population has had at least one dose. If we were anywhere close to reaching herd immunity, those cases would be nose diving like a Trump-run business.
Click to expand...

A flat lining is a precursor to herd immunity. Your first paragraph is what a lot of us have been telling you for weeks. It's just the Fauci crowd who doesn't believe it. Apparently Fauci is staying up at night worrying that we'll get Europe's spike. Reasonable people say no, we won't get that spike because of immunity, both natural and vaccinated. Why doesn't Tony get that?
 
#91,831
#91,831
one more example of the problem with % positive testing data.

a "high" % positive neighborhood (Flushing/Murray Hill) with 12.3% positive had a testing rate of 452 out of 100,000 equivalent; a "low" % neighborhood (Lennox Hill) with a 2.15% positive more than doubled that testing rate (1075/100000).

BTW - no neighborhood is above 13.63 (despite the claim of 15) and only 2 are above 13. Hell, only 3 are above 12. In contrast there are about 25 - 30 below 5. In almost all cases the higher case positive rates are linked to lower per capita testing.

For reference there are 329 neighborhoods in NYC. 1% have a test positivity of over 12%.
 
Last edited:
#91,832
#91,832
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2101927

They had 15000 healthcare workers tested during vaccination process. They tested both symptomatic and asymptomatic workers. Only 7 positive tests were identified >15 days after second vaccine.

“7 tested positive 15 or more days after the second vaccination (Table 1). As of February 9, a total of 5455 health care workers at UCSD and 9535 at UCLA had received the second dose 2 or more weeks previously; these findings correspond to a positivity rate of 0.05%.”

So, 99.95% chance of not having either symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID 2 weeks after second shot.

And yet, the conclusion is....

“The rarity of positive test results 14 days after administration of the second dose of vaccine is encouraging and suggests that the efficacy of these vaccines is maintained outside the trial setting. These data underscore the critical importance of continued public health mitigation measures (masking, physical distancing, daily symptom screening, and regular testing), even in environments with a high incidence of vaccination, until herd immunity is reached at large.”

Apparently even the scientists aren’t following their own science. Gotta keep toeing that line.
 
#91,833
#91,833
volinbham said:
one more example of the problem with % positive testing data.

a "high" % positive neighborhood (Flushing/Murray Hill) with 12.3% positive had a testing rate of 452 out of 100,000 equivalent; a "low" % neighborhood (Lennox Hill) with a 2.15% positive more than doubled that testing rate (1075/100000).

BTW - no neighborhood is above 13.63 (despite the claim of 15) and only 2 are above 13. Hell, only 3 are above 12. In contrast there are about 25 - 30 below 5. In almost all cases the higher case positive rates are linked to lower per capita testing.

For reference there are 329 neighborhoods in NYC. 1% have a test positivity of over 12%.
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If you don't like positivity rates, look at new hospitalizations. There's no sampling bias there. Numbers are going up. Not consistent with substantially declining spread.

Today 248:


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#91,834
#91,834
newyorkvol said:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2101927

They had 15000 healthcare workers tested during vaccination process. They tested both symptomatic and asymptomatic workers. Only 7 positive tests were identified >15 days after second vaccine.

“7 tested positive 15 or more days after the second vaccination (Table 1). As of February 9, a total of 5455 health care workers at UCSD and 9535 at UCLA had received the second dose 2 or more weeks previously; these findings correspond to a positivity rate of 0.05%.”

So, 99.95% chance of not having either symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID 2 weeks after second shot.

And yet, the conclusion is....

“The rarity of positive test results 14 days after administration of the second dose of vaccine is encouraging and suggests that the efficacy of these vaccines is maintained outside the trial setting. These data underscore the critical importance of continued public health mitigation measures (masking, physical distancing, daily symptom screening, and regular testing), even in environments with a high incidence of vaccination, until herd immunity is reached at large.”

Apparently even the scientists aren’t following their own science. Gotta keep toeing that line.
Click to expand...

Interesting. So even though you get the vaccine, “scientists” still want regular testing? Why? That makes zero sense.
 
#91,836
#91,836
Look at the NYC data I posted. Hospitalizations are down considerably (last 7 days vs weekly average over last month) - from 1758 to 1047.

you continue to confuse daily variation with trend data.

the trends are down.

cases are down, hospitalizations are way down
 
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#91,839
#91,839
evillawyer said:
If you don't like positivity rates, look at new hospitalizations. There's no sampling bias there. Numbers are going up. Not consistent with substantially declining spread.

Today 248:


(203)


(231)


(215)


(194)


(234)


(177)


(154)
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If the masks are so great why are there still cases in places like NYC
 
#91,841
#91,841
rather than look at tweets - how about NYC data compiled in a chart? Isn't it odd how the number changes quite a bit day to day but when you smooth the data to find the trend it's apparent there's a steady decline?

Screen Shot 2021-03-24 at 2.01.55 PM.png
 
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#91,848
#91,848
volinbham said:
I'm surprised he isn't alarmed that Covid cases (according to the case positivity rate) are growing nearly 8% from yesterday to today - the SURGE IS REAL!
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If we extrapolate that linearly, we’re looking at millions of deaths before the end of the year.
 
#91,849
#91,849
kiddiedoc said:
Now that most people are back to doing normal stuff, I've seen far more common colds, GI bugs, and Strep than earlier in the winter. I have a feeling that next winter will be brutal. Still no flu, no RSV, and maybe two CV19 positives in 6 weeks.
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Maybe you could explain to these good people about viral interference.
 
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