Would you agree that right now we have at least one agency saying, with low confidence, that a lab accidentally released it, and at least some other agencies, saying with low or at best medium confidence, that it was a natural mutation?
If so, I hardly see why all the conspiracy theorizing and gloating from the usual suspects, though of course you have not needed a reason before.
Here's the thing - very simplified.
A. Over a long span of years humans were unaffected by bats infected with the corona virus.
B. Virologist Shi Zhengli travels around China collecting samples from caves where infected bats hang out, and brings the samples to a virology lab in Wuhan, China where researchers conduct gain of function (GOF) testing that would allow the virus infecting bats to spread to other species.
C. One fine day people in Wuhan start becoming ill, and a virus spread rampantly through the city. Turns out it is a corona virus we now know as Covid-19.
D. China basically seals off Wuhan as the infection spreads, claiming it was nature "came from a wet market". Yeah, there's a virology lab in town studying this kind of virus, "but we din't do nuffin."
E. China continues to disavow all blame, and we start finding researchers and grants from the US supporting GOF testing in the Wuhan lab ... and US interests start the "we din't do nuffin either" routine.
F. Everybody involved around the globe does the CYA thing ... couldn't happen, didn't happen, "studies why it wasn't manmade" etc. While in the background there are the "we didn't, did we?" "it couldn't have been, could it?" memos floated around.
G. Turns out the Wuhan lab did in fact create and infect "humanized mice" with a virus that started from bat corona virus.
H. The virus that struck down Wuhan went worldwide in short order - amazingly fast. So all the sudden the human population which seemed to be immune to a virus found in Chinese bats is hit with a disease that spread across the globe and infected and killed millions. A virus without human immune defense spread across the globe
only after GOF researchers in the lab where the disease started had played Dr. Frankenstein.
I. My conclusion: Researchers at the Wuhan virology lab created the new virus and lost containment - probably accidentally through sloppy procedures. There's a lot written about the lab itself and what levels of security exist and when they are applied (or not) for anyone who wants to find it.
Yep, that is connecting the dots and finding correlation without proving causation - no question. Unfortunately the Chinese have pretty much insured that a real study that might definitively show connection wasn't done and can't be done in the future. As an engineer who has done a lot of testing and analysis over the years, I've learned very well not to jump to a conclusion and then try to prove it; the best approach by far is to test and see where the data lead. The data may tell you that you have to refine and test differently, but eventually it will lead you to a conclusion. BUT you have to be allowed to test and analyze to get there, and China has blocked that. Generally when somebody blocks something that affects them as much as anyone else, there is something to hide. BTW, I thought the DOE connection was interesting, too, until thinking back to my graduate assistantship and research at Oak Ridge (a National Lab under the DOE).
My thought is that someone screwed up in the lab and infected himself/herself and spread the virus. Chinese scientists have been caught selling infected lab animals to food suppliers, so there could be a wet market connection while the real cause was still the lab itself.
My final thought is WTH are we trying to develop deadly mutant viruses for which mankind has no immunity, and who is going to stop it before something really bad happens?