Let Us Leave Germany

[Rasputin_Vol]

Counting active duty and reserve troops, Russia has almost 3,000,000 in its Army. They are not a boogeyman but instead a threat.

What has lead you to think Russia even has ambitions of invading Western Europe? This is something I've not heard since 1989...

 

[Tennesseefan2019]

The EU wants to keep their subjects fat and happy with entitlements not spend money on their own defense.

It would be a very good thing if every country in the EU were forced to drastically increase their defense spending.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

It would be a very good thing if every country in the EU were forced to drastically increase their defense spending.

This is why the EU clutches their pearls and paints Trump as a madman for proposing such things. Their tax burdens are already incredibly high and their militaries are for the most part not in great shape. If they had to raise taxes even more to provide their own defense the citizenry would riot. It's in their best interest to simply say Trump is crazy.

If ANY President had the nuts to do this I'd be pleased. But the last 3 we've had were all too eager to kick off a shooting war in Asia or Eastern Europe.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

zeihan.com

6/1/2020 (free) newsletter

A Faint Flicker of Hope in Europe - Zeihan on Geopolitics

The past few several weeks have been busy for the Europeans, easily generating more events of consequence than at any time since at least the 2007 financial crisis. There is no specific trigger event here that makes much sense without absorbing the context first, so I’m just going to do what I do and start at the beginning.

Germans aren’t normal.

I don’t mean that as a condemnation of their weather or dourness or food or their linguistic tendency to link a dozen or more words together into typographical nightmares, but instead that Germany’s peculiar geography has made the Germans somewhat…peculiar.

Germany’s geography is the best and worst of all worlds. Best in that it boasts four major and a dozen minor rivers as well as ample stretches of flat land to both ease internal transport and make for cheap development. Worst in that Germany’s most rugged terrain is in the country’s interior while its flattest lands are on its borders, making it easier (historically speaking) for most Germans to integrate with their (non-German) neighbors rather than their own co-ethnics.

Historically, this has made German lands among the most bloodsoaked in Europe, with the whole area being preyed upon over and over and over. The first “Germany” was Charlemagne’s, and it only lasted so long as the great monarch was alive. The Holy Roman Empire was a primarily German entity (occasionally referred to as the First Reich), but it wasn’t even remotely united, comprised as it was by sometimes over 1000 (often mutually warring) statelets.

It was only with the onset of industrialization in the 1800s that Germans were able to use rail and electricity to overcome their internal geographic complexity and achieve unity. But unity doesn’t automatically translate into happy-fun-play-time. The second and third Reichs were Germany’s Imperial and Nazi incarnations. Those governments’ attempts to impose writs on the wider European neighborhood resulted in the most catastrophic wars humanity has ever experienced. For the following 45 years, Germany was the very definition of not united – split into two pieces to serve as mutually-opposing frontline states in the Cold War.

In the years since the Berlin Wall fell, the newly-united Germany – or Fourth Reich if you prefer – has been taking a wonderous vacation from history. It doesn’t need to fight to remain unified; America’s imposition of a global Order makes that unnecessary. It doesn’t need to protect its borders; American-dominated NATO takes care of security issues. It doesn’t need to fight for access to either raw materials or consumer markets. The Americans’ global structure has enabled the rise of the European Union within Europe, and has allowed German firms access to a worldful of consumption. All Germany needs to do to be Germany today is…be. And so the Germany of today is united, free and at peace…without the Germans needing to do a damn thing.

For those of you who would like Germany to exercise more decisionmaking power and take security matters into its own hands, I refer you to literally any book on European history between 1848 and 1945 to highlight why that might not be the fabulous idea you assume it to be.

Anyway, there are now three intersecting problems that all independently threaten Germany’s blissful existence.

First, the Americans are done holding up the collective civilizational ceiling of the world. The United States created the global Order to fight the Cold War, and that war ended when the Berlin Wall fell. The Americans have been edging away from, well, everything, ever since. The day of final abandonment was always going to come, it is now here, and everyone who used to shelter under the American security umbrella or benefit from a globalized economy must figure out a new way forward. That applies to Germany as much as everyone else.

Second, the German economic model of mass exports is running out of road. Mass exports requires a large, highly-skilled workforce heavy with people in their late-40s through early-60s. Germany has had that for the past 15 years, but those skilled workers collectively are crossing the retirement threshold this decade. With no replacement generation coming up through the ranks, Germany can neither consume what it produces today, nor maintain its current production for much longer. That eliminates both the basis of the German economy and the German tax base. Something new, something radical, something that utilizes resources beyond Germany, is required.

Third, the EU – the only meaningful piece of the Order the Americans do not directly control and so the only possible anchor the Germans have keeping them in a safe, peaceful, united Europe – is in mortal danger. In part it is because much of Europe faces the same security and export dependence upon the Americans as the Germans do. But there’s another problem.

Geography.

Northern Europe is flat and well-rivered and so countries there can achieve efficiencies and economies of scale. Southern Europe is rugged and lacks rivers and so cannot. Exceptions abound in a continent as varied as Europe, but the bottom line is that Southern Europe will never be able to compete with Northern Europe economically, just as Northern Europe cannot hope to compete with Southern Europe when it comes to sun, fun, food and flair. (France has a foot in both worlds which is part of what makes the French…well…French.) Anywho, the bottom line is that there is no European Union without both parts of Europe, so the question becomes how to keep it all stitched together without either the American-led Order or the ability to access markets from far beyond Europe?

There is no good answer. Even more problematic, what might prove a good answer for Ireland would be hilariously inappropriate for Croatia. What most everyone can agree on, however, is that Europe as a combined entity will be better able to get what it needs than the EU’s constituent members acting independently. And so Europe has been limping along since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, economically suppressed, strategically adrift, politically riven…but with no one (save the Brits) willing to pull the plug on the whole project.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

zeihan.com
6/13/2018 newsletter:

I Think They Get It Now, Part Drei: Germany - Zeihan on Geopolitics

At war’s end the Americans bribed all the expeditionary powers – wartime allies like the United Kingdom and France and wartime foes such as Japan and Germany – to be part of its Bretton Woods alliance. The rivals who had caused the war were now clustered under American strategic leadership. The most successful of those powers were those able to refabricate their systems to fully take advantage of a world of open borders, of a world where the Americans provided free security for all, of a world where all the expeditionary powers were aligned, of a world where trade wasn’t something to fear, but something to embrace.

No one did it better than Germany.

 

[Purple Tiger]

What has lead you to think Russia even has ambitions of invading Western Europe? This is something I've not heard since 1989...

What leads you to think Russian won't ever invade western Europe? Our troops are a deterrent. Putin has already shown he has territorial ambitions.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

For those of you who would like Germany to exercise more decisionmaking power and take security matters into its own hands, I refer you to literally any book on European history between 1848 and 1945 to highlight why that might not be the fabulous idea you assume it to be.

I had to stop reading at this point. Up until then, everything the author said was reasonable and factual. But this comment here is a throw away comment. The author is doing the reader a disservice by not going into detail about what was going on during this time. The average reader is going to reach a certain conclusion based on what occurred during the Nazi years as a justification for Germany not having a larger role in security matters. That is a bit of lazy writing.

 

[Orange_Crush]

As a kid I lived in Germany as my father was a soldier in the Army. Now it appears that President Trump is finally pulling our troops out of this anti US European trash country. Thank You President Trump from all of the other kids that had to spend part of their youth treated like crap by the Germans. FU Nato, FU Eurotrash!

And people wonder why the war-mongering generals are saying mean things about Trump...

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Northern Europe is flat and well-rivered and so countries there can achieve efficiencies and economies of scale. Southern Europe is rugged and lacks rivers and so cannot. Exceptions abound in a continent as varied as Europe, but the bottom line is that Southern Europe will never be able to compete with Northern Europe economically, just as Northern Europe cannot hope to compete with Southern Europe when it comes to sun, fun, food and flair. (France has a foot in both worlds which is part of what makes the French…well…French.) Anywho, the bottom line is that there is no European Union without both parts of Europe, so the question becomes how to keep it all stitched together without either the American-led Order or the ability to access markets from far beyond Europe?

There is no good answer.

No, there is the obvious answer of the Eurasian Trade Zone. However, the same old propaganda that is used here to demonize Germany is present and magnified even more with regards to Russia. Europe's largest energy provider (Russia) with Europe's largest economy (Germany) working together in a pot-American Europe works against the bet interests of some people. As long as those people are able to maintain the Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia ghosts in people's minds, that is their only hope of running out the clock on an idea that is in the long term best interests of Europe.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

What leads you to think Russian won't ever invade western Europe? Our troops are a deterrent. Putin has already shown he has territorial ambitions.

We're going in circles here. The Obama administration's destabilization of Ukraine lead to the annexation of Crimea. That is the only territorial expansion that Putin has engaged in.

Outside of that, Russia knows that expanding an empire and maintaining an empire is expensive and socially draining. Not only do they have 70+ years of their own history as proof of that, but they are watching how the US is draining itself in maintaining its empire.

 

[Purple Tiger]

We're going in circles here. The Obama administration's destabilization of Ukraine lead to the annexation of Crimea. That is the only territorial expansion that Putin has engaged in.

Georgia? Eastern Ukraine?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Georgia? Eastern Ukraine?

All US provoked. Is Eastern Ukraine not part of Ukraine? Again, you're going in circles.

 

[Purple Tiger]

All US provoked. Is Eastern Ukraine not part of Ukraine? Again, you're going in circles.

Georgia is not going in circles. You forgot about that.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I had to stop reading at this point. Up until then, everything the author said was reasonable and factual. But this comment here is a throw away comment. The author is doing the reader a disservice by not going into detail about what was going on during this time. The average reader is not going to do reach a certain conclusion based on what occurred during the Nazi years as a justification for Germany not having a larger role in security matters. That is a bit of lazy writing.

You're triggered by history?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

You're triggered by history?

Triggered by incomplete history and lazy historians.

The writer should have done due diligence and actually made their case about what went on between 1847 and 1945. Don't just leave it up to the reader to try to piece it together. It is obvious that the writer wanted to reader to immediately focus on 1933-1945, not all of the events that lead up to the Nazis taking over.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

:sadmusic:

Escobar: A Pipelineistan Fable For Our Times

And then there’s Ukraine. Maidan was a project of the Barack Obama administration, featuring a sterling cast led by POTUS, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John McCain and last but not least, prime Kiev cookie distributor Victoria “f*** the EU” Nuland.

Ukraine was also supposed to prevent Russia from deepening energy ties with Germany, as well as other European destinations.

Well, it did not exactly play like that. Nord Stream was already operational. South Stream was Gazprom’s project to southeast Europe. Relentless pressure by the Obama administration derailed it. Yet that only worked to enable a resurrection: the already completed TurkStream, with gas starting to flow in January 2020.

 

[TNVOLNAVY]

:sadmusic:

Escobar: A Pipelineistan Fable For Our Times

Jeez, you’re just arguing with yourself now. The topic is Germany not Ukraine.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Jeez, you’re just arguing with yourself now. The topic is Germany not Ukraine.

This post illustrates your ignorance. Ukraine and the Nordestream were the catalysts for the decision to pull out of Germany. But like most typical 'Muricans, you ignore cause and effect when it comes to our foreign policy.

Ukraine was also supposed to prevent Russia from deepening energy ties with Germany, as well as other European destinations.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Triggered by incomplete history and lazy historians.

The writer should have done due diligence and actually made their case about what went on between 1847 and 1945. Don't just leave it up to the reader to try to piece it together. It is obvious that the writer wanted to reader to immediately focus on 1933-1945, not all of the events that lead up to the Nazis taking over.

The article isn't about the history of Germany's past agression and is very long without going into detail about that reference. It's about Germany's current economy and it's role in the EU. It's not a history lesson. It's giving an opinion of what happens as Germany's leaders deal with their recent legal ruling that the EU must use the currency proportionally to support member economies and the German leadership understanding that they will hurt their own economy by allowing the minor partner countries to collapse economically. The point about Germany's previous initiatives to dominate Europe is a minor one and contrasts Netherlands and Austria siding against helping those smaller economies (and Italy) through the EU bank yet being vulnerable to a rogue Germany.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

It's not a history lesson. It's giving an opinion of what happens as Germany's leaders deal with their recent legal ruling that the EU must use the currency proportionally to support member economies and the German leadership understanding that they will hurt their own economy by allowing the minor partner countries to collapse economically. The point about Germany's previous initiatives to dominate Europe is a minor one and contrasts Netherlands and Austria siding against helping those smaller economies (and Italy) through the EU bank yet being vulnerable to a rogue Germany.

You would get no arguments from me with regards to this point. The author missed out on an opportunity to actually explain the 100 years leading up to World War II. So yes, it did play a very small part in the article, which is disappointing.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

You would get no arguments from me with regards to this point. The author missed out on an opportunity to actually explain the 100 years leading up to World War II. So yes, it did play a very small part in the article, which is disappointing.

That organization examines current and past events to create a narrative of potential future political trends. Referencing Germany's history was sufficient to address why its neighbors might not want them to break from the EU.

 

[rekinhavoc]

I had to stop reading at this point. Up until then, everything the author said was reasonable and factual. But this comment here is a throw away comment. The author is doing the reader a disservice by not going into detail about what was going on during this time. The average reader is not going to do reach a certain conclusion based on what occurred during the Nazi years as a justification for Germany not having a larger role in security matters. That is a bit of lazy writing.

Hitler's Circle of Evil | Netflix

Really good series on the inner workings of the Nazi party.

What I found interesting was how they came to power politically and how it relates to today in the US.


Spoiler alert for the Antifa folks: It didn't turn out well for the Brownshirts.

 

[carlos86]

 

[Franklin Pierce]

Bipartisan group of senators introduce bill to rein in Trump's ability to scale down troops in Germany

The proposal would require the Pentagon to certify reducing troops was in the national security interest.

A bipartisan group of senators introduced a resolution Monday to rein in President Trump’s ability to remove troops from Germany.

The proposal, led by Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, would block the administration from reducing the number of active duty troops in Germany to below 34,500, the current number stationed there, unless the Pentagon certifies to Congress that doing so is in the national security interest of the U.S. and would not negatively impact European alliances or NATO.

Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; Marco Rubio, R-Fla.; Christopher Coons, D-Del.; Tim Kaine, D-Va.; and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., are cosponsoring the proposal.

Bipartisan group of senators introduce bill to rein in Trump's ability to scale down troops in Germany

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Who can argue against what these guys are saying?


@Pacer92 @red butler @MercyPercy