Lunardi's latest: Vols one of last four in

#151
#151
OrangeBalls said:
It doesn't state that it's limited to 3 teams, but if you think 4 teams make it then I'll have what you're smoking. UT, Mizzou, LSU, Ole Miss and Ark are average at best teams and on any given night they look like complete sh*t. I'll state right now if UT loses to Mizzou then they won't get in the tourney unless they get to the finals or win the SEC tourney. The SEC will be hard pressed to get 4 teams in this year.
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I'm not saying they definitely will, but with Missouri's remaining schedule they could easily go 5-1 losing to us. Say we go 6-0, that would put both Missouri and Tennessee in easily.

Now I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen, and I have zero faith we win 6 in a row, I'm just saying 4 teams very well could get in.
 
#152
#152
i know what lunardi has been putting up, but you don't go 4-8 in your league and get a bid.

they have won 1 game in the last month.

okie state is out.

beating memphis, texas, and colorado doesn't pull you out of that hole.
 
#153
#153
How the **** are we still in? That blows my mind. We've lost about 45 games this year, and like half of them were to bad teams. What's it gonna take for him to have us out?
 
#154
#154
99gator said:
i know what lunardi has been putting up, but you don't go 4-8 in your league and get a bid.

okie state is out.

beating memphis, texas, and colorado doesn't pull you out of that hole.
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They're dropping quick, and I have them already out, but many still have them in so I at least for now have them on the bubble. There has been sub 500 conference tourney teams get in before, and I think it was Lunardi was saying the committee would take into consideration games list without smart.
 
#155
#155
utfan72408 said:
How the **** are we still in? That blows my mind. We've lost about 45 games this year, and like half of them were to bad teams. What's it gonna take for him to have us out?
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Just a slight exaggeration lol

We have 1 loss that is qualified as a "bad loss", that's a big reason why we are still in.
 
#157
#157
bleedingTNorange said:
I'm not saying they definitely will, but with Missouri's remaining schedule they could easily go 5-1 losing to us. Say we go 6-0, that would put both Missouri and Tennessee in easily.

Now I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen, and I have zero faith we win 6 in a row, I'm just saying 4 teams very well could get in.
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If UT or Mizzou go 6-0 or 5-1, I'll be shocked. One of them will have a loss because they play each other. They both sh*t the bed just when you think they've turned the corner. It's going to come down to who does the best in the SEC tourney IMO. I don't see another team winning the SEC tourney besides Fla. No one is as good or deep as them so it's going to come down to how many games Mizzou and UT can win IMO.
 
#158
#158
utfan72408 said:
Perhaps. Haha.

But is A&M really the only qualifier for a bad loss? What about Vandy and UTEP?
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A bad loss (in the committes eyes) is defined as a loss to an opponent with a RPI of 100 or worse. We have lost to 1 team with a plus 100 RPI, and that's A&M. Now, Vandy is hovering around 90 as was UTEP last I saw, so if both slip up we could go from 1 to 3 real quick.
 
#159
#159
OrangeBalls said:
If UT or Mizzou go 6-0 or 5-1, I'll be shocked. One of them will have a loss because they play each other. They both sh*t the bed just when you think they've turned the corner. It's going to come down to who does the best in the SEC tourney IMO. I don't see another team winning the SEC tourney besides Fla. No one is as good or deep as them so it's going to come down to how many games Mizzou and UT can win IMO.
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Oh I agree which is why I said I'm not thinking it happens, but in the event that Missouri goes 5-1 and Tennessee 6-0...both teams are in easy.
 
#160
#160
utfan72408 said:
Perhaps. Haha.

But is A&M really the only qualifier for a bad loss? What about Vandy and UTEP?
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Right now, UTEP is 100, Vandy is 89 and A & M is 134. So, technically 2 bad losses and Vandy will probably end up over 100 because their toughest stretch of their schedule is coming up. UTEP may move back depending on if they lose to any more garbage teams. They lost 2 starters to gambling so we're lucky they're not in the 200 range.
 
#161
#161
bleedingTNorange said:
The positive is the bottom dwellers are road games, those will give you a bigger bump. Oregon beat a near triple digit RPI Oregon State team on the road today and their RPI jumped 7 spots.

We win those 5 games and the RPI is right at 40, look at the projections, that's where the numbers are coming from. A win at home to Missouri likely bumps us 3-4 spots to 36-37 like they project 20-10 at and a loss drops us around 6-7 spots which is why they project 19-11 at 46.
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You may have a better source than I'm using, but look at the last 3 weeks before SECT last season.
Even with the win over Mo at home the rpi moved from 57 to 55 over 3 weeks of games.
Made a big jump with the win over FL then not much more change.
My source doesn't break it down. Take a look on yours.
 
#162
#162
OrangeBalls said:
If UT or Mizzou go 6-0 or 5-1, I'll be shocked. One of them will have a loss because they play each other. They both sh*t the bed just when you think they've turned the corner. It's going to come down to who does the best in the SEC tourney IMO. I don't see another team winning the SEC tourney besides Fla. No one is as good or deep as them so it's going to come down to how many games Mizzou and UT can win IMO.
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yep agree with you there.. i think both teams get at least loss or 2 the rest of the year. i really think it's 3 teams in the ncaa tourney only if that team wins the sec tourney. regarding the sec tourney 4 out of the last 6 years the top seed didn't win it.. last year it was ole miss and the year before vandy. for as good as florida has played it wouldn't surprise me to see someone upset them. lots of times it's just who gets on a roll in the tourney.
 
#163
#163
calban said:
You may have a better source than I'm using, but look at the last 3 weeks before SECT last season.
Even with the win over Mo at home the rpi moved from 57 to 55 over 3 weeks of games.
Made a big jump with the win over FL then not much more change.
My source doesn't break it down. Take a look on yours.
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Yea, that's what I'm saying. You're putting too much on the home verse Missouri and not enough on the road verse the cupcakes. The increase from each would be about the same, 2-4 spots each.

Each of our remaining 6 games is good for about a 3-4 spot bump each IMO. UGA (H), A&M (A), Miss St (A), Vandy (H), Auburn (A) and Mizz (H).

The positive is that the 3 best teams UGA, Vandy and Missouri are at home where you get less credit, but the better opponent should offset that. We play RPI dwellers A&M, State and auburn, but they're all on the road. Like I said above, I think each game is good for about a 2-4 spot bump with a W. 6 wins would be about 18 spots which would be 36(currently 54) which is right in line with rpiforecast projection of 20-10.
 
#164
#164
bleedingTNorange said:
Yea, that's what I'm saying. You're putting too much on the home verse Missouri and not enough on the road verse the cupcakes. The increase from each would be about the same, 2-4 spots each.

Each of our remaining 6 games is good for about a 3-4 spot bump each IMO. UGA (H), A&M (A), Miss St (A), Vandy (H), Auburn (A) and Mizz (H).

The positive is that the 3 best teams UGA, Vandy and Missouri are at home where you get less credit, but the better opponent should offset that. We play RPI dwellers A&M, State and auburn, but they're all on the road. Like I said above, I think each game is good for about a 2-4 spot bump with a W. 6 wins would be about 18 spots which would be 36(currently 54) which is right in line with rpiforecast projection of 20-10.
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Not going to get a 3-4 bump from teams like TAMU , Miss St and Auburn. RPIs are too bad. Road or no.
 
#165
#165
calban said:
Not going to get a 3-4 bump from teams like TAMU , Miss St and Auburn. RPIs are too bad. Road or no.
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Like I said, Minnesota got a 7 spot bump from beating a 12-14 team tonight. RPI doesn't go into the RPI formula, it's a teams record that counts when you defeat someone if that makes sense.

Winning at those places will give us a little bump, winning at Bama gave us a 7 spot bump iirc.
 
#166
#166
bleedingTNorange said:
Like I said, Minnesota got a 7 spot bump from beating a 12-14 team tonight. RPI doesn't go into the RPI formula, it's a teams record that counts when you defeat someone if that makes sense.

Winning at those places will give us a little bump, winning at Bama gave us a 7 spot bump iirc.
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how much more of bump do you get beating the same team on the road than at home? maybe you mentioned it above, but i have missed it.
 
#167
#167
bleedingTNorange said:
I'm not saying they definitely will, but with Missouri's remaining schedule they could easily go 5-1 losing to us. Say we go 6-0, that would put both Missouri and Tennessee in easily.

Now I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen, and I have zero faith we win 6 in a row, I'm just saying 4 teams very well could get in.
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Hubbs said tonight if we lose one more game that we would have a hard time making the tourney.
 
#169
#169
if we don't make the tournament, Martin is out for sure one would think...
The question is, what if we somehow get in even though the season is a major disappointment?
 
#170
#170
JackHVFL said:
if we don't make the tournament, Martin is out for sure one would think...
The question is, what if we somehow get in even though the season is a major disappointment?
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Then CM will be back next year. Probably will anyway.
 
#171
#171
bleedingTNorange said:
They're dropping quick, and I have them already out, but many still have them in so I at least for now have them on the bubble. There has been sub 500 conference tourney teams get in before, and I think it was Lunardi was saying the committee would take into consideration games list without smart.
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Idk how you would have OSU out but us in. Their RPI is higher (42), they have 3 wins against teams 33 or higher. They have a better record than us (16-9) and a SOS of 15. They have 1 loss to a team below 49 (at 101 Texas Tech). Out of their remaining 6 games, 4 of them are top 50, including 1 Kansas and at 9 Iowa State.

If they are out, we have no shot.
 
#173
#173
volgrad500 said:
Idk how you would have OSU out but us in. Their RPI is higher (42), they have 3 wins against teams 33 or higher. They have a better record than us (16-9) and a SOS of 15. They have 1 loss to a team below 49 (at 101 Texas Tech). Out of their remaining 6 games, 4 of them are top 50, including 1 Kansas and at 9 Iowa State.

If they are out, we have no shot.
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Okie State will be out because of their conference record. Teams with losing conference records have gotten in, but it's not a given. They are 4-8 with 3 games they could legitimately lose left.
 
#174
#174
We coud lose to Mizzou and maybe still make it with help but I don't think it matters because I think we drop a game at A&M Or Miss State. I stick with my gut from earlier this season and believe we won't be dancing. Even if we do, does it really matter? We'd be a higher seed that gets our lunch eaten by a much better team with much better coaching because we'd likely be playing a very tough team opening up. I hope the Vols make it but I highly doubt it happens.
 
#175
#175
VolGee4 said:
Okie State will be out because of their conference record. Teams with losing conference records have gotten in, but it's not a given. They are 4-8 with 3 games they could legitimately lose left.
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Okie State has been the biggest train wreck. They were my dark horse to win the conference and make the final four this season. Travis Ford has really lost control of that team. And for Okie State fans that argue losing Smart was key to that slide, they started sucking way before Smart pushed fans around.
 
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