Mizzou roster vs UT roster

[Spartacavolus]

Dobbs lost to Vandy. I don't think he is the answer.

on a bum leg and with a hurt hand, he ran for a td that would've put us up by 10 in the 4th quarter if Pig would have just stood there and done nothing.

 

[sjt18]

Dobbs played at Missouri, the SEC East champ, vs Auburn, the 2nd best team in the country, and would've had to score 900 pts to beat them. Worley got both Georgia and SCar at home and played very well at times, pretty pedestrian at others.

Did you see my earlier post? Mizzou and Auburn ranked last and next to last in passing D last fall in the SEC.

Obviously Worley got a good Florida team on the road in the second half, no cakewalk, he played ok... not really bad, not really good. But Florida proved not to be the team they normally are partially due to injury.

He played in desperation mode against the D that ended up 1st vs the pass in the SEC. Only 3 teams (FSU, UGA, and UK explain that one) went over 53% against them.

Again, I'm a Worley defender as you know. Just disagree with the one argument that Worley played more difficult teams. Everything else I'm with you.

:good!:

I will still say that if someone beats Worley out that I will feel better, not worse, about the position. I think he's pretty decent and it would take a very solid player to take the job from him.

 

[sjt18]

Strikes me as you place no value in the extra years experience gained by the players in the system and another year under the same coaching staff? To me, that consistency / experience logically should result in improved performances. The 2 new WR's are also super highly regarded along with being EE's.

You're being to pessimistic IMO.

Realistically... improvement depends on coaching, player talent, player development, and plain ol' hard work by the players. Those elements in various degrees have been lacking at UT.

 

[MustafaRasta]

Did you see my earlier post? Mizzou and Auburn ranked last and next to last in passing D last fall in the SEC.

Alabama - # 7
Vanderbilt - # 14
Auburn # 47
Kentucky - # 57
Missouri # 74

Just some numbers for pass defense last season in the NCAA

Mizzou is the lowest of the teams Dobbs played against as far as I can tell. Dobbs was running for his life in that game though due to the pressure of the defense.

Still those numbers are more informative than the SEC numbers you keep trumpeting. I don't hear you mention that Kentucky was a top half pass defense and that Dobbs led the Vols to the first SEC road victory in years.

Whoever it may be that is quarterback I am fine with it.
Let's not pretend that a true freshmen who did not come in until the summer and was as some believe a 4rth string guy was not going to have a mistake filled inconsistent run against top flight SEC teams with a majority of them on the road.

 

[sjt18]

Alabama - # 7
Vanderbilt - # 14
Auburn # 47
Kentucky - # 57
Missouri # 74

Just some numbers for pass defense last season in the NCAA

Mizzou is the lowest of the teams Dobbs played against as far as I can tell. Dobbs was running for his life in that game though due to the pressure of the defense.

Still those numbers are more informative than the SEC numbers you keep trumpeting.

No. They aren't.

cfbstats.com - 2013 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

I don't hear you mention that Kentucky was a top half pass defense and that Dobbs led the Vols to the first SEC road victory in years.

I guess you ignored the part where I said I actually liked Dobbs' game... his ability and style of play the best of any of them, right? That wouldn't have allowed you to pretend I was down on Dobbs.

Whoever it may be that is quarterback I am fine with it.
Let's not pretend that a true freshmen who did not come in until the summer and was as some believe a 4rth string guy was not going to have a mistake filled inconsistent run against top flight SEC teams with a majority of them on the road.

OK. Good by me. Let's also not pretend that a first time starting QB surrounded by young WR's with almost no real game experience and who make TONS of mistakes... is going to be able to confidently go through his reads and deliver the ball.

Part of Dobbs' advantage (and again something I like) is that he could move around to help WR's work open better than Worley. But that is NOT Jones' O nor is it something that you can be very consistent with unless you have a Manziel type of QB. As much as I like Dobbs... he ain't Manziel.

 

[sjt18]

PS- If you use the site above and sort for vs the SEC alone... you'll see that ALL of the SEC opponents Worley played against were in the top half of the conference while ALL of those Dobbs played except his clean up work vs Bama were in the bottom half.

 

[UTProf]

That game is late in the year, so losses from last year will have less impact as replacements will have had time to develop. Recruiting rankings mean little to their coach, he always seems to be able to do more with less.

Oh Pinkel would love to recruit better talent but Mizzou has always struggled in recruiting (I suspect being in the SEC will eventually help them in that area but they're farther away from the talent pools than most schools). However, interspersed in their 30ish-40ish class rankings is the 2010 class which was top 25 class (#23 nationally - Franklin, Josey, Ealy etc were in that class). Those guys were seniors last year and what Pinkel managed to do last year was leverage a well ranked and highly experienced senior class against teams that were very much harmed by injuries and other factors.

Even without injuries or other factors effecting their opponents, a team laden with seniors on the OL and DL and at QB and RB is going to have the ability to erase a lot of talent deficits, especially when they're top 25 talent themselves, and that's exactly what Mizzou did. However, that's also why Mizzou's performance next year may well turn out to be as awful as their first year in the league. Losing that many seniors in your only top 25 class in years is a pretty big loss. Add to that the loss of DGB (via his own stupidity) during the offseason and it makes things even worse.

 

[MustafaRasta]

No. They aren't.

cfbstats.com - 2013 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

I guess you ignored the part where I said I actually liked Dobbs' game... his ability and style of play the best of any of them, right? That wouldn't have allowed you to pretend I was down on Dobbs.

OK. Good by me. Let's also not pretend that a first time starting QB surrounded by young WR's with almost no real game experience and who make TONS of mistakes... is going to be able to confidently go through his reads and deliver the ball.

Part of Dobbs' advantage (and again something I like) is that he could move around to help WR's work open better than Worley. But that is NOT Jones' O nor is it something that you can be very consistent with unless you have a Manziel type of QB. As much as I like Dobbs... he ain't Manziel.

I don't think you are down on anybody specifically. I just think you argue whatever nonsense statement your original hard headed opinion led you to make until 567 multi quotes later nobody cares and you look bipolar.

For instance you defend Worley the most and will fudge things to make him look much better than he is. Why don't you post the teams passing defense he threw against?

I will post them and I will use the same source I used before with the previous numbers. It's some dime BS site, I think it's called NCAA.COM. I know, not legit.

W. Kentucky - # 34
Oregon - #56
Austin Peay - not a real team
Florida - # 17
Georgia - # 8
South Carolina - #21

I wont count his outing vs Alabama because it's hard to say when he hurt his thumb.

True his best 2 games came against Georgia and SC where he didn't make mistakes and the amount of balls throne at the turf diminished.

From your point of view you probably think these stats cement your argument. I think he almost cost all the W. Kentucky game and we looked hapless against AP, thankfully we didn't have Vandy week one eh?
Also 5 of the games he played in were home games and 2 of the 3 road games he played a half in.

Like I said, I like all the guys and don't care either way who starts. I just say you are fudging stats to make your case.

Let the multi's begin.

 

[orangebloodgmc]

I don't know what to make of it when some of our most rational people on this whole site are arguing against each other. :hmm: eace: :huggy:

I guess it's just the month of May when there is nothing else going on in terms of SEC football. :question:

 

[MrBiggles]

I don't know what to make of it when some of our most rational people on this whole site are arguing against each other. :hmm: eace: :huggy:

I guess it's just the month of May when there is nothing else going on in terms of SEC football. :question:

We need Football season!

 

[KBVol]

Did you see my earlier post? Mizzou and Auburn ranked last and next to last in passing D last fall in the SEC.

He played in desperation mode against the D that ended up 1st vs the pass in the SEC. Only 3 teams (FSU, UGA, and UK explain that one) went over 53% against them.



:good!:

I will still say that if someone beats Worley out that I will feel better, not worse, about the position. I think he's pretty decent and it would take a very solid player to take the job from him.

Hold on now 18. The rankings you showed, as one example, have Missouri as the worst pass defense in the SEC, right? Based on passing yards per game given up. Not on turnovers caused, not on tds given up....just yards allowed per game.

Yet, according to ESPN, Missouri was #4 in the entire nation in sacks and #5, in the entire nation, in interceptions..... tops in the SEC in both categories. Both sacks and interceptions have a significant impact on a passing game, no? By contrast, the #1 ranked D on your list was Florida... they were ranked #96 in sacks and #82 in interceptions nationally. If I remember correctly, Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass in their win vs Florida....they just ran the ball down their collective throats for like 400 yds or so. Zero yards passing given up in 1 of their 12 games would definitely skew Florida's ypg given up statistic.

How do we reconcile that? Personally, I wouldn't mind my defense bending a little bit if they didn't give up the most tds (which Missouri did not with only 18, putting them #6 in the conference) while at the same time generating the most sacks and the most interceptions in the SEC .... which they did. If you were a QB, which type of defense would you rather play against?

Finally, being #1 in the SEC in ints and sacks squares up better with the team that represented the East in the SECCG than finishing last in passing yards allowed IMO.

 

[MustafaRasta]

Hold on now 18. The rankings you showed, as one example, have Missouri as the worst pass defense in the SEC, right? Based on passing yards per game given up. Not on turnovers caused, not on tds given up....just yards allowed per game.

Yet, according to ESPN, Missouri was #4 in the entire nation in sacks and #5, in the entire nation, in interceptions..... tops in the SEC in both categories. Both sacks and interceptions have a significant impact on a passing game, no? By contrast, the #1 ranked D on your list was Florida... they were ranked #96 in sacks and #82 in interceptions nationally. If I remember correctly, Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass in their win vs Florida....they just ran the ball down their collective throats for like 400 yds or so. Zero yards passing given up in 1 of their 12 games would definitely skew Florida's ypg given up statistic.

How do we reconcile that? Personally, I wouldn't mind my defense bending a little bit if they didn't give up the most tds (which Missouri did not with only 18, putting them #6 in the conference) while at the same time generating the most sacks and the most interceptions in the SEC .... which they did. If you were a QB, which type of defense would you rather play against?

Finally, being #1 in the SEC in ints and sacks squares up better with the team that represented the East in the SECCG than finishing last in passing yards allowed IMO.

You know how he reconciles it. He fudges on purpose so he can browbeat his point of view.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Hold on now 18. The rankings you showed, as one example, have Missouri as the worst pass defense in the SEC, right? Based on passing yards per game given up. Not on turnovers caused, not on tds given up....just yards allowed per game.

Yet, according to ESPN, Missouri was #4 in the entire nation in sacks and #5, in the entire nation, in interceptions..... tops in the SEC in both categories. Both sacks and interceptions have a significant impact on a passing game, no? By contrast, the #1 ranked D on your list was Florida... they were ranked #96 in sacks and #82 in interceptions nationally. If I remember correctly, Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass in their win vs Florida....they just ran the ball down their collective throats for like 400 yds or so. Zero yards passing given up in 1 of their 12 games would definitely skew Florida's ypg given up statistic.

How do we reconcile that? Personally, I wouldn't mind my defense bending a little bit if they didn't give up the most tds (which Missouri did not with only 18, putting them #6 in the conference) while at the same time generating the most sacks and the most interceptions in the SEC .... which they did. If you were a QB, which type of defense would you rather play against?

Finally, being #1 in the SEC in ints and sacks squares up better with the team that represented the East in the SECCG than finishing last in passing yards allowed IMO.

I agree stats have to be put into context. Your opponent and how they scheme against you can skew the message in the stats. The one stat that seems perhaps most important defensively is scoring defense. As to the passing yardage difference between Florida and Missouri, Florida had to defend only 319 pass attempts (26.6/gm) while Mizzou had to defend 567 attempts (40.5/gm). Against Florida though teams only completed 49.8% of their passes while against mizzou they had much better success at 62.8%. Even we completed 61.9% of our passes against Mizzou. Against Florida it was only 41.2%. Different QBs and Mizzou was later in the year so our young receivers had some time to improve. If you're secondary sucks you better have a good pass rush and conversely if your pass rush sucks you better have a good secondary. Heaven would be having both at the same time.

 

[PowerT83]

How about how does mizzou's roster fit it's system compared to how UTs fits it's system.

2012 game we should of beat them worse than they beat us last year.

What I want to see from UT going forward is when there is a chance to put a team to sleep the coaches call the right plays, be it more conservative or aggressive.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

My new, never used before, golf driver out performs, my older 3-4 year well used older driver that I am accustom to.

Sometimes new and fresh isn't a bad thing. I think as long as we have an OL and DL that are hungry and physical, they can out perform our old OL and DL that were skilled, but comfortable and seemed undriven.

Sometimes strength, weight, and experience win close games.

 

[KBVol]

I agree stats have to be put into context. Your opponent and how they scheme against you can skew the message in the stats. The one stat that seems perhaps most important defensively is scoring defense. As to the passing yardage difference between Florida and Missouri, Florida had to defend only 319 pass attempts (26.6/gm) while Mizzou had to defend 567 attempts (40.5/gm). Against Florida though teams only completed 49.8% of their passes while against mizzou they had much better success at 62.8%. Even we completed 61.9% of our passes against Mizzou. Against Florida it was only 41.2%. Different QBs and Mizzou was later in the year so our young receivers had some time to improve. If you're secondary sucks you better have a good pass rush and conversely if your pass rush sucks you better have a good secondary. Heaven would be having both at the same time.

Thanks for the addl stats that help further my point. Like you said, all stats have contexts.

 

[sjt18]

I don't think you are down on anybody specifically. I just think you argue whatever nonsense statement your original hard headed opinion led you to make until 567 multi quotes later nobody cares and you look bipolar.

For instance you defend Worley the most and will fudge things to make him look much better than he is. Why don't you post the teams passing defense he threw against?

I will post them and I will use the same source I used before with the previous numbers. It's some dime BS site, I think it's called NCAA.COM. I know, not legit.

W. Kentucky - # 34
Oregon - #56
Austin Peay - not a real team
Florida - # 17
Georgia - # 8
South Carolina - #21

I wont count his outing vs Alabama because it's hard to say when he hurt his thumb.

True his best 2 games came against Georgia and SC where he didn't make mistakes and the amount of balls throne at the turf diminished.

From your point of view you probably think these stats cement your argument. I think he almost cost all the W. Kentucky game and we looked hapless against AP, thankfully we didn't have Vandy week one eh?
Also 5 of the games he played in were home games and 2 of the 3 road games he played a half in.

Like I said, I like all the guys and don't care either way who starts. I just say you are fudging stats to make your case.

Let the multi's begin.

Nope. I am defending a guy who gets unfairly attacked.

You "answered" me here without answering either of my two major points. One, Worley was the starter and endured through the 1st part of the season while the WR's were more or less terrible. We saw how Peterman handled that early in the season. Two, he played better pass D's than Dobbs did and particularly their respective SEC games. You listed Worley's games as if stating one side of the equation was an answer.

I like Dobbs alot. I like the way he throws better than the other 3 though I have not seen as much from Ferguson. I love the guy's intelligence and ability to do things with his legs. I like the work ethic that is suggested by his off-season size and strength gains.

But his starts came against the weaker SEC pass D's UT faced. I am not sure why you guys continue to debate with a statistical fact.

 

[sjt18]

Hold on now 18. The rankings you showed, as one example, have Missouri as the worst pass defense in the SEC, right? Based on passing yards per game given up. Not on turnovers caused, not on tds given up....just yards allowed per game.

Interestingly enough, Dobbs hit 62% of his passes in the MU game for 240 yds. But he threw 2 picks.

Yet, according to ESPN, Missouri was #4 in the entire nation in sacks and #5, in the entire nation, in interceptions..... tops in the SEC in both categories. Both sacks and interceptions have a significant impact on a passing game, no?

The sacks didn't seem to bother Dobbs. The 3 TO's pretty much put UT out of the game.

By contrast, the #1 ranked D on your list was Florida... they were ranked #96 in sacks and #82 in interceptions nationally. If I remember correctly, Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass in their win vs Florida....they just ran the ball down their collective throats for like 400 yds or so. Zero yards passing given up in 1 of their 12 games would definitely skew Florida's ypg given up statistic.

If you were a QB, which type of defense would you rather play against?

That is another good way to look at it. I would much rather face Mizzou, Vandy, and UK than UGA, UF, and USCe.

Finally, being #1 in the SEC in ints and sacks squares up better with the team that represented the East in the SECCG than finishing last in passing yards allowed IMO.

If you believe they won the division because they were the best team in the division then you would need that justification. They had a good team that met a charmed life last fall. The teams with real ability to beat them in the East including UT just seemed to have some critical issue right before playing Mizzou. They won with O, not D. They scored 36 ppg vs the SEC and allowed a good, not great, 23 ppg.

It happens. UT never wins the 98 NC without some breaks like that. Whoever wins the East this year if it isn't UGA will have caught some breaks.

 

[sjt18]

You know how he reconciles it. He fudges on purpose so he can browbeat his point of view.

Pot.... meet kettle. Or rather, locomotive meet kettle.

 

[KBVol]

Interestingly enough, Dobbs hit 62% of his passes in the MU game for 240 yds. But he threw 2 picks.

The sacks didn't seem to bother Dobbs. The 3 TO's pretty much put UT out of the game.

By contrast, the #1 ranked D on your list was Florida... they were ranked #96 in sacks and #82 in interceptions nationally. If I remember correctly, Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass in their win vs Florida....they just ran the ball down their collective throats for like 400 yds or so. Zero yards passing given up in 1 of their 12 games would definitely skew Florida's ypg given up statistic.

That is another good way to look at it. I would much rather face Mizzou, Vandy, and UK than UGA, UF, and USCe.


If you believe they won the division because they were the best team in the division then you would need that justification. They had a good team that met a charmed life last fall. The teams with real ability to beat them in the East including UT just seemed to have some critical issue right before playing Mizzou. They won with O, not D. They scored 36 ppg vs the SEC and allowed a good, not great, 23 ppg.

It happens. UT never wins the 98 NC without some breaks like that. Whoever wins the East this year if it isn't UGA will have caught some breaks.

Good points. But I suspect most SEC QBs would rather have faced APSU, WKy and SoAla than Auburn, Mizzou and Vandy.

 

[sjt18]

Good points. But I suspect most SEC QBs would rather have faced APSU, WKy and SoAla than Auburn, Mizzou and Vandy.

I'd certainly agree with that all other things being equal. The WR situation to start the season made even those games more difficult than they should have been. Plus, there is an element of them just being in a new system with no real comfort with each other.

Worley was efficient vs APSU and WKU. UT didn't need anything more than that against either opponent.

He made bad throws and bad decisions vs USA in addition to misplays by WR's... then came back with what I would call the best two performances of his career in the following two weeks vs UGA and USCe. He, Pig, and North seemed to "find" each other.

 

[ImportedVoL]

Mizzou is too late in the year to even worry about IMO.. we have no idea what either team will look like at that point in the season. Personally I like our chances at this point, but injuries, Players stepping up that are not even accounted for yet on either roster. The fact we don't know what either teams mindset will be, how bad were their losses, how good are their wins. All those things account into how a team performs on any given Saturday. Beyond the first 2-3 games is the fools domain when it comes to predicting games. You just simply do not have enough information yet.

 

[Rooster1]

Everyone that thinks they understand how much talent any given team has based upon the national recruiting rankings is badly mistaken. For the top 1-5 or so teams in recruiting rankings each year, those rankings often do have a correlation to performance if repeated often enough. The kids being signed by the very top schools have been analyzed and scrutinized much more than most. They are invited to and attend the elite camps sponsored by and or supported by the rating agencies themselves. They get max coverage and the most interest from the recruiters whoo line up to sign these players that have been seperated from the herd. It is a Catch 22 if you will.

How does Boise State knock off OU in a BCS bowl? How do they beat UGA in Atlanta? How does KSU annually own UT (texas)? Anyone want their team to play Mich State on any field? How about Baylor? Wisconsin? OKSU? Stanford? You get the point. Most of those schools never finish top 20 in recruiting, and they sometimes finish way lower than that. There are many others as well. But they have good coaching, good development and they actually IDENTIFY good talent that in hindsight, is almost always underrated coming out of HS. There are too many players for the rating agencies to focus on, they have their methods to limit the pool of players that get extensive analysis. This is by necessity. But hundreds of great players slip through the cracks, kids that get two or three stars but play well above that.

So you look at a Michigan State roster and see that their average player is barely a three star. You than take the mental leap and say that since UT has "way more talent" i.e., way more 4-5 star players, UT should be favored, right? MSU can't possibly be very talented, look at their recruiting rankings!

How talented or not Mizzou's roster is will be decided on the playing field this Fall, not from some internet site or magazine article you just read that rated the "talent" of over 20,000 HS accurately and thoroughly.

 

[LWSVOL]

Rather than continue to challenge each individual that predicts a) Mizzou to beat UT this fall and b) for Mizzou to finish above UT in the East and in the top 4...

Please take a look at their roster losses, returning players, and new players then justify why they should do either of the above. They likely have the most critical roster losses in the SEC and are not backfilling with comparable players.

Gone: NFL caliber LT plus another OL, top 3 WR's, top RB, top QB, top DE, top DT, 2 of 3 LB starters, 3 of 4 DB starters.

Returning: Role players who played around those guys. Two good RB's. A good mobile QB... who threw for under 50% completions in 3 of his 4 starts (61% vs UK).

I don't see enough data about Missouri to make a valid comparison to Tennessee. I'm pasting in a post I made on another board when talking about the 2014 season. Since you have studied Missouri, can you extract comparable data?

Question, what was the QB's record in those 4 games where you got the passing percentage??

Here is my post from another site on Tennessee

I think catastrophic is losing any one of 7 players. I think to get that 6th win and go bowling, they have to keep these 7 players healthy and playing productively. Lose any one and getting to 6 will take some luck IMO.

Worley, Lane, Hurd, North, Johnson, Maggit or Randolph. I agree with you that losing 3 or more OL would be a tremendous hit as well.

When talking about "number of wins" you have to consider how very inexperienced this bunch is. They have to be molded and put together to play as a unit (offensive and defensive units) to have success. The number of inexperienced players is staggering.

46% of this roster has NOT ever set foot on a division one football field.


of the returning players that have played, here are the number who have had more than 10 starts at D-1.

4 seniors (Downs (13), Coleman (25), Worley (10) and Johnson (34))
4 juniors (Howard (10), Maggit (17), McNeil (19) and Randolph (23)
2 sophomores. (North (11) and Sutton (12)

so 10 players on this roster have had 10 or more starts in their career. Everyone else has not. This is assuming Howard returns. If not, only 9 have started 10 or more times.

it is POSSIBLE for this team to win 4, 6 or 8 games. Possible because they have to play the schedule and things happen.

6 wins is more probable than 4 or 8. 5 is a more likely as a guess at this juncture because it will take time for the inexperienced players to learn to compete. Talking of those with SEC level talent. Health is a major factor. lose the experienced players early in season could lead to a catastrophic season.

 

[LWSVOL]

IMHO, the biggest problem with his arm was a complete lack of confidence in a group of WR's who had no idea what they were doing.

I agree. Worley was a not a problem last year. WRs who were lost for half the year or more were the problem. But that is typical of young players who have not played. The few elite level players might have better luck at production, like Boyd at Pitt.