Most Feared New SEC Coach

#52
#52
Lawrence Wright said:
If that's your argument, then Muschamp should get more credit for winning 11 games with one of the nation's worst offenses.
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Not arguing against Sumlin at all. Just pointing out the unusual circumstances that led, in large part, to his success. How many Manziels are out there? Virtually none

And while I don't like Muschamp at all based on his demeanor, I got no problem giving him great credit for an 11 win season. He's a very good coach.... who acts like a prick.
 
#53
#53
KBVol said:
Not arguing against Sumlin at all. Just pointing out the unusual circumstances that led, in large part, to his success. How many Manziels are out there? Virtually none

And while I don't like Muschamp at all based on his demeanor, I got no problem giving him great credit for an 11 win season. He's a very good coach.... who acts like a prick.
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i had no idea who manziel was before the start of the season.

i just can not understand why sumlin doesn't get the majority of the credit for winning with a whole bunch of players who did jack squat before his arrival.
 
#54
#54
99gator said:
i had no idea who manziel was before the start of the season.

i just can not understand why sumlin doesn't get the majority of the credit for winning with a whole bunch of players who did jack squat before his arrival.
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Nobody did 99 and that's part of the point for me. Sumlin is a very good coach, his track record, including last season, proves that. However, you gotta agree, there's no way he goes 11-2 and beats Bama without a once in a generation type player in Manziel who he couldn't have possibly planned on or accounted for prior to the season as he was game planning the season. How many wins does he have without Manziel last year? 8? 9? Maybe, even probably. But 8 or 9 ain't 11.

Edit: the 2 seasons prior to Sumlin Texas A&M averaged 8 wins a season. Not exactly a program in free fall.
 
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#55
#55
KBVol said:
Nobody did 99 and that's part of the point for me. Sumlin is a very good coach, his track record, including last season, proves that. However, you gotta agree, there's no way he goes 11-2 and beats Bama without a once in a generation type player in Manziel who he couldn't have possibly planned on or accounted for prior to the season as he was game planning the season. How many wins does he have without Manziel last year? 8? 9? Maybe, even probably. But 8 or 9 ain't 11.

Edit: the 2 seasons prior to Sumlin Texas A&M averaged 8 wins a season. Not exactly a program in free fall.
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a&m was 7-6 in 2011. they lost to three opponents in 2011 that they beat the snot out of in 2012 (missouri, arkansas, and oklahoma). they lost to those teams by an average of 9 points a game in 2011. they won those games by an average of 35 points a game in 2012. a point differential of -27 to +106. that's a 133 point swing.

no one will answer this question. i will ask it one more time.

does manziel put up those numbers, have the season he had, or win the heisman trophy playing for another coach in another system?
 
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#56
#56
here's another scary thing to think about with a&m in the future. i don't know how long manziel will be there. and it will be damn near impossible for them to get the same level of player to replace him.

however, the talent a&m had at the skill positions in 2012 was straight trash compared to what they will have at wr and running back in around 2014 and 2015.
 
#57
#57
99gator said:
a&m was 7-6 in 2011. they lost to three opponents in 2011 that they beat the snot out of in 2012 (missouri, arkansas, and oklahoma). they lost to those teams by an average of 9 points a game in 2011. they won those games by an average of 35 points a game in 2012. a point differential of -27 to +106. that's a 133 point swing.

no one will answer this question. i will ask it one more time.

does manziel put up those numbers, have the season he had, or win the heisman trophy playing for another coach in another system?
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Chicken or the egg question 99.... I think last year's success was every bit as much and probably more Manziel than it was Sumlin. Jmo. Given how dynamic and at times incredible Manziel was, I'll go on record saying Manziel would've played that well for a number of coaches, not just Sumlin.
 
#58
#58
CBJ, Sumlin, Freeze and if he could recruit better Bielema. Honorable mention to Franklin and to Stoops for his recruiting thus far.
 
#59
#59
KBVol said:
I think Sumlin is a helluva good coach. Again, good track record of success. But you gotta admit he caught lightning in a bottle with a once in a generation-type talent in a redshirt QB that pretty much came out of nowhere.... not exactly a conventional way to get to 11-2.
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So you want to evaluate the coaches as if the best player on each team does not exist? I never understand this argument. It makes zero sense.
 
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#60
#60
volfanhill said:
So you want to evaluate the coaches as if the best player on each team does not exist? I never understand this argument. It makes zero sense.
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Uh, no, exact opposite. I'm arguing that Sumlin's success at Texas A&M last year had more to do with catching lightning in a bottle with a redshirt freshman QB nobody had ever heard of who played out of his mind and won a Heisman trophy. Sumlin has to be evaluated last year with the circumstances he had.... namely a once in a generation type player.
 
#61
#61
Weee'rre Baaccckk said:
My lack of objectivity is what gives creedance to my statement. I don't base my perceptions off of lack of information or erroneous assumptions.
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No just relationships to DNA strands
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#65
#65
Lawrence Wright said:
Disagree....Sumlin had success at Houston, has an 11-win season in the SEC under his belt, has his fan base as jacked if not moreso than UT's, and is recruiting well in his huge back yard.

Muschamp is recruiting lights out also, and his improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 would have him at the top of the list if he coached somewhere other than Florida.

I agree with those who think TAMU will take a step back this season due to defensive losses and Manziel potentially not handling the spotlight. But UT lost all of its offensive firepower, and until UT finds the right QB, defenses will load up on the run. I'd be shocked to see UT have the same Year 1 success under Jones that TAMU had under Sumlin.

The key to UT's resurgence is plucking the Georgia HS studs away from Mark Richt, and winning their share of battles closer to home, which it appears they're doing with kids like Hurd.
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Not necessarily. We have a bigger group of receivers than we've ever had...in all of UT history. 3 WR's (all 4* and I believe North was just a frog-hair's distance from being rated a 5* by Rivals) 6'4"-6'5." And Blanc (very underrated) is 6'3"...that's 4 big WR's. And you can bet with those 3-4 lined up in the same set, there is going to be a mismatch in at least one of those spots. Guess who we're going to throw to?

I think any one of the QB's could step up and take over the offense, but Worley had gaudy numbers (Gatorade national player of the year, as a senior) in HS, so with those big WR's and some big targets at TE coming in...plus arguably the best OL in the SEC, in front of him...I think he'll be able to thrive.

What I have noticed is that teams that come out of slumps, in the SEC, don't do so gradually. They usually have a breakout year. Saban did. Meyer did. Auburn did, with Chizik. As did Sumlin.
 
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#67
#67
VOLorNuttin said:
Not necessarily. We have a bigger group of receivers than we've ever had...in all of UT history. 3 WR's (all 4* and I believe North was just a frog-hair's distance from being rated a 5* by Rivals) 6'4"-6'5." And Blanc (very underrated) is 6'3"...that's 4 big WR's. And you can bet with those 3-4 lined up in the same set, there is going to be a mismatch in at least one of those spots. Guess who we're going to throw to?

I think any one of the QB's could step up and take over the offense, but Worley had gaudy numbers (Gatorade national player of the year, as a senior) in HS, so with those big WR's and some big targets at TE coming in...plus arguably the best OL in the SEC, in front of him...I think he'll be able to thrive.

What I have noticed is that teams that come out of slumps, in the SEC, don't do so gradually. They usually have a breakout year. Saban did. Meyer did. Auburn did, with Chizik. As did Sumlin.
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I like your optimism, I just don't agree with it.

UF's secondary isn't exactly chopped liver.
 
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#69
#69
Lawrence Wright said:
Not sure how you rate Jones at the top of the list right now. Recruiting has definitely improved, and that's the first step. Managing expectations through what could be a tough first season will be key.
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I would have to say the fact that which ever conference he has coached in...CBJ and his staff have figured out away to dominate it and own it at each stop with what talent he has and flat out make it work.

His schemes and coaching philosophy are proven to be in an elite level. Say what you want about Sumlin...give credit were credit is due...but once Tennessee has just a few studs in the stable and his system implemented history shows that he will win and win a lot and championships.

Per statistical guru Tom Chou at the M.I.T. Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (numbers don't lie and back my post above):

"Football is such a complex sport that has so many things that can be measured. Yards, points, conversion percentage, first downs, time of possession- the list goes on and on. The problem I discovered is that each one of these measurements, by itself, will fail to accurately measure how good a football team is. The metric I created is designed to do just that- rate an entire football team based on one number."

"In his many years of success, [Jones] always fielded one of the top statistical defenses in the nation," Chou said. "I believe that's a result of his coaching philosophy and schemes. I fully expect his coaching methods will translate to success in the SEC despite the increased level of competition."

The Metric's Simplicity

The brilliance of Chou's Efficiency Metric lies in its simplicity. To rate the offense and defense separately you just find the quotient of the yards gained or allowed by a team over the total points scored for or against that team and it will give you the efficiency rating. If you want the overall team score, you find both the offensive and defensive ratings and then subtract the offensive rating from the defensive rating, then multiply that number by the team's strength of schedule to get one all-encompassing score.
This works so well because you want your team to have a high number on defense and a low number on offense, therefore when you find the difference between the two it embraces all aspects of the game. If the defense forces a three-and-out, then the punt returner gets some good blocks and has a decent return to give the offense a short field and the offense capitalizes on that opportunity by putting up seven points then that will greatly help your rating because all three phases of the game did their jobs to put points on the board.

What this means is that over the past two years, teams coached by Butch Jones forced their opponents to go 19.92, on average, for every point they scored. When you stretch that out into actual ways to score in football, it would be the equivalent of saying teams had to gain nearly 60 yards (59.76) to score a field goal or almost 140 yards (139.44) for a touchdown and the resulting extra point.

Conversely, teams coached by Jones didn't even have to gain 40 yards (38.22) per field goal, and less than 90 yards (89.18) per touchdown. Then when you get the balance between the two and factor in strength of schedule, you have an overall Team Efficiency Rating of 3.30. Keep in mind that this number can be negative, which the large majority of the NCAA's coaches overall ratings are. For some perspective, Mark Richt, who has ranked very well (15th) over the last two seasons has had an overall efficiency of 0.80, so while 3.30 doesn't seem like a very high number, it's actually good enough to make Butch Jones the fourth most efficient head coach in college football over the last two years.

OVERALL EFFICIENCY
1. Nick Saban 10.01
2. Les Miles 9.33
3. Brian Kelly 3.83
4. Butch Jones 3.30
5. Bill Snyder 3.12
6. David Shaw 3.04
7. Chip Kelly 2.68
8. Bret Bielema 2.35
9. Will Muschamp 2.23
10. Chris Petersen 2.20

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
1. Nick Saban 22.37
2. Brian Kelly 22.22
3. Les Miles 20.76
4. Butch Jones 19.92
5. Chris Petersen 18.84
6. Steve Addazio 18.44
7. Will Muschamp 18.24
8. David Shaw 17.87
9. Dan Mullen 17.64
10. Brady Hoke 17.53
* 2011, 2012 Seasons Combined

Metric Shows Jones Among Coaching Elite - UTSPORTS.COM - University of Tennessee Athletics
 
#70
#70
Sumlin. He's beating Texas in recruiting simply because of joining the SEC. Went undefeated in Houston. Extremely dangerous coach.
Malzahn is next. Offensive genius who is only previously a year removed from AU. Squashed MTSU while coaching at Ark. State 48-0; MTSU had previously slaughtered Georgia Tech. Dude is the best offensive coach in football, and he has a good D-coordinator in Ellis Johnson.
Bammers' biggest worries are about to be TAMU and AU.
 
#71
#71
I read that link the first time, it was posted here, and while I think Jones will be a very good coach at UT, I can't give him the nod over Sumlin or Bielema just yet.

Jones hasn't given anyone in the SEC anything to fear.
 
#72
#72
Lawrence Wright said:
I read that link the first time, it was posted here, and while I think Jones will be a very good coach at UT, I can't give him the nod over Sumlin or Bielema just yet.

Jones hasn't given anyone in the SEC anything to fear.
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I love it.....because I am 90% sure you simply don't want to believe it. Of course you would never admit it....which is fine guy. I can't see from here...but we can smell your fear :eek:lol:
 
#74
#74
Lawrence Wright said:
I read that link the first time, it was posted here, and while I think Jones will be a very good coach at UT, I can't give him the nod over Sumlin or Bielema just yet.

Jones hasn't given anyone in the SEC anything to fear.
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The season hasn't started yet.... give it some time....
 
#75
#75
Seems everyone on Bielema's band wagon because of his trips to Rose Bowl the last three years. It should be noted however, the he only earned the first trip. The 2nd was won due to Ohio State having the worst record in several decades; and the 3rd was due to a 12-0 Ohio State (who beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin) being ineligible for post season play. Couple that with his three losses in the Rose Bowl in last three years; and he doesn't seem to be such a hot shot coach after all.
 
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