'24 MS DL Kamarion Franklin (Ole Miss commit)

[WilliamDuVOL]

this is true. 1-3 are up on their own level. 4-14 are all pretty close, where one or two players is the difference between 4 & 14. and then there is typically a pretty big drop off, where the difference is probably needing 5 players to move up into the 4-14 tier.

Yep. I look at teams like Miami, South Carolina, or Arizona. They all have a 5 star commit anchoring their classes, but they are 1 decommit away from dropping outside of the top 20 or 30. Actually Arizona is still only 31st currently even with a 5 star commit.

 

[SweetasSoda]

Currently outside top 10 with 19 commits but the teams directly in front of Vols have:

#10 - 19 commits
#9 - 22
#8 - 24
#7 - 23
#6 - 27
#5 - 21
#4 - 17
#3 - 21

If Vols were to add Wingo and Jordan Ross, that would be good enough for 3rd right now.

Staff is putting together a fantastic class once again.

Thank you

 

[sjt18]

recruiting rankings are based off pro potential - has little to do with college readiness. Weathersby might be more impactful as a frosh, but Bradley seemingly has more room to grow and will probably be a better player by their 3rd year in the program.

That's not exactly true either. This summarizes three of the sites.

Recruiting: What do all those 'stars' mean?

 

[sjt18]

What have they said about Weathersby? I must have missed it.

Seems to be ahead of expectations. He was a marginal 3*/4*. Bradley was rated 5* for a while. I'm not dissing Bradley. All I'm saying is that there are A LOT of underrated 3* guys out there. More than enough that if you find 3-5 guys who were rated 3* but should have been 4*... then a #12 class could actually be a #5 class. There is a range of error in those rankings. Why anyone would expect them to be as certain as some here think they are is beyond me.

 

[sjt18]

It’s not impossible. But we’re currently outside of the top 10 (on 247) and don’t have many needle-movers left on the board from a class rankings standpoint. New targets will emerge and flips will happen, but it’d have to be several major prospects to move us all the way to the top 5.

I believe all of the recruiting sites take a "conservative" approach early and add 4/5* players right around the end of the year after the senior seasons... and when most kids have signed their NLI.

A lot of people seem to think Ginther will get another star and a boost in the rankings. There could be others. Leacock kind of went that way

OTOH, some guys could just remain under rated... and some may be correctly rated.

There are often "mystery" under rated guys. Sampson was that way. Elijah Herring and Kalib Perry appear to be better than their ratings. Particularly Herring.

Arion Carter based on camp reports may have been underrated even after being moved up to a 4*.

If you truly care then just a few adjustments in the ratings could move UT up.... and the class will still be as good as it is whether that happens or not. The true quality of the class will be known when they actually start contributing on the field.

 

[cncchris33]

I haven't said anything different. you are apparently the one with the axe to grind, you were the one who @'d me.

Only because I threw out a hypothetical scenario that actually ended up coincidentally happening. I'd have thought that it was obvious that the intention was purely humorous. I thought you'd find it funny and tried to further enhance the humor of it with a silly Betty White/Alf crystal ball gif.

That's an ax to grind in your world? Sheesh...

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Seems to be ahead of expectations. He was a marginal 3*/4*. Bradley was rated 5* for a while. I'm not dissing Bradley. All I'm saying is that there are A LOT of underrated 3* guys out there. More than enough that if you find 3-5 guys who were rated 3* but should have been 4*... then a #12 class could actually be a #5 class. There is a range of error in those rankings. Why anyone would expect them to be as certain as some here think they are is beyond me.

Your right, there are more 3-4star guys out there than 5 star guys. Probably the biggest key overall for the top teams is hitting on your 3 and 4 star guys at a high rate. They ones that can be coached up and in a year or 2 can line up with anybody. I have faith in our coaches ability to find players that can be coached up and be very good players. GBO

 

[reaperkyle]

Seems to be ahead of expectations. He was a marginal 3*/4*. Bradley was rated 5* for a while. I'm not dissing Bradley. All I'm saying is that there are A LOT of underrated 3* guys out there. More than enough that if you find 3-5 guys who were rated 3* but should have been 4*... then a #12 class could actually be a #5 class. There is a range of error in those rankings. Why anyone would expect them to be as certain as some here think they are is beyond me.

I agree for sure with your points and nothing is certain with any individual player. If you try to designate a way to evaluate how good a player was at the end of his college career, there's no perfect way, but the NFL draft is probably the best measuring stick we have. I never really took a side on the stars debate, but I am a very analytical person and wanted to see what the reality of star ratings were statistically. I put together a 4-year report from 2013-2016 that showed the college recruiting classes broken down by stars and how many total and % were drafted. What I found in factuality is this:

A 5* recruited player coming out of high school has about a 2.5x higher chance of being drafted in the NFL than a 4* player, and almost a 10x higher chance than a 3*. A 4* player has around a 3.5x higher chance of being drafted than a 3* player. I've done each individual season since putting this report together than ended in 2016 and the stats remain very close to the same, so there is consistency in the findings. I'll clip a screenshot of the original 4 years I researched. I used 247 composite ratings for the players.

I often see the arguments about it all being about evaluation and stars don't matter, but statically speaking, they do. The highest rated players end up being the best players at the end of their college careers on average, by far. It's easy to pick out 3*'s that excel because there are usually around 1100+ every year compared to around 30 5*'s and 250 4*'s.

I also did a report (two years ago), just to see which schools finished ahead of their recruiting rankings on average. Basically, who does more with less. The top 5 were Wisconsin, TCU, Baylor, Boise State and BYU.

Probably not the right thread to post this detailed of a response on. Sorry all! For the record, I would love for Franklin to choose the good guys, but alas I think he's not going to. Also, I always choose a few of the lower rated players in our class and adopt them as faves. I guess it's rooting for the underdog?

 

[jasonvol18]

dude will coach until he cant anymore

Agreed. I still think he's got another 4-6 yrs left.

 

[jasonvol18]

Fact of the matter is the fines and scholly limits are playing a role right now. Staff has to be selective about who they throw money at. From what I’m hearing, as all these upperclassmen move on in the next couple of years that will change and we’ll be "outbid" less and less frequently. Numbers are just tight right now in more ways than one.

Despite some of these factors the staff has assembled a great class thus far and have a chance for a fringe top 5 class. I can’t wait to see what targets emerge from senior seasons and how many we get.

That said, we ain’t getting Franklin unless something drastically changes.

The fines and scholarship limits have no bearing on this. The NIL money is separate from the fines and it's only 2 losses scholarships a year. We also aren't going to get into bidding wars for a HS senior.

 

[sjt18]

I agree for sure with your points and nothing is certain with any individual player. If you try to designate a way to evaluate how good a player was at the end of his college career, there's no perfect way, but the NFL draft is probably the best measuring stick we have. I never really took a side on the stars debate, but I am a very analytical person and wanted to see what the reality of star ratings were statistically. I put together a 4-year report from 2013-2016 that showed the college recruiting classes broken down by stars and how many total and % were drafted. What I found in factuality is this:

A 5* recruited player coming out of high school has about a 2.5x higher chance of being drafted in the NFL than a 4* player, and almost a 10x higher chance than a 3*. A 4* player has around a 3.5x higher chance of being drafted than a 3* player. I've done each individual season since putting this report together than ended in 2016 and the stats remain very close to the same, so there is consistency in the findings. I'll clip a screenshot of the original 4 years I researched. I used 247 composite ratings for the players.

I often see the arguments about it all being about evaluation and stars don't matter, but statically speaking, they do. The highest rated players end up being the best players at the end of their college careers on average, by far. It's easy to pick out 3*'s that excel because there are usually around 1100+ every year compared to around 30 5*'s and 250 4*'s.

I also did a report (two years ago), just to see which schools finished ahead of their recruiting rankings on average. Basically, who does more with less. The top 5 were Wisconsin, TCU, Baylor, Boise State and BYU.

Probably not the right thread to post this detailed of a response on. Sorry all! For the record, I would love for Franklin to choose the good guys, but alas I think he's not going to. Also, I always choose a few of the lower rated players in our class and adopt them as faves. I guess it's rooting for the underdog?

I've seen similar analyses done. That's part of the story but not all of it.

In any given draft I believe the average is around 40% that were rated 4/5*. About 60-70% of 5* guys will be drafted. That falls to 20% of 4* and around 5% for 3* and under.

The problem is that all of the rankings arbitrarily limit the number of 4/5* ratings they hand out. Almost all players who are pursued by a P-5 program will get 3* even if the recruiting sites know nothing about them. That means they've hedged their bet on 4/5* guys and then diluted the 3* pool. So what that means to your analyses is that the "stars" are a LOT more meaningful for the 4/5* guys than they are for the 3* guys. A lot of 3* guys are actually more talented than 4* guys. Some are more talented than 5* guys. Two recent guys who illustrate that well are Sampson and Justin Williams.

IIRC, they rate enough guys 4/5* to fill out the draft plus some. Their hit rate is 35-40%.

 

[sjt18]

Your right, there are more 3-4star guys out there than 5 star guys. Probably the biggest key overall for the top teams is hitting on your 3 and 4 star guys at a high rate. They ones that can be coached up and in a year or 2 can line up with anybody. I have faith in our coaches ability to find players that can be coached up and be very good players. GBO

I have contended for a very long time that the "Dabo" path is how programs rise. When he won his first NC, his roster averaged a #11 ranking. He found a lot of underrated guys. Ironically, afterwards the recruiting sites started giving his targets more credibility... and his rosters have declined somewhat in talent.

I think many give the guys who hand out the ratings way too much credit. Even if they had the skill to rate guys on the level of a P-5 coach... they simply don't have the time to look at that many players.

 

[#Vol4Life1991]

I have contended for a very long time that the "Dabo" path is how programs rise. When he won his first NC, his roster averaged a #11 ranking. He found a lot of underrated guys. Ironically, afterwards the recruiting sites started giving his targets more credibility... and his rosters have declined somewhat in talent.

I think many give the guys who hand out the ratings way too much credit. Even if they had the skill to rate guys on the level of a P-5 coach... they simply don't have the time to look at that many players.

 

[Weezer]

You can look at the various recruiting sites to see how subjective rankings are. We're #7 on On3, #10 on Rivals, and #11 on 247. The true test of a class is filling all your needs. Right now, we're only lacking in DL.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

That's not exactly true either. This summarizes three of the sites.

Recruiting: What do all those 'stars' mean?

5 year old article lol

 

[sjt18]

5 year old article lol

Show one where they changed it.

That's been that way starting back when Rivals was the only game.

Why do you fight the truth so hard? I know your ego is involved. You don't want to admit you're wrong. But you actually look worse for continuing to do what you're doing.

 

[Adam Sandler]

That Kamarrion Franklin dude is going to be good at auburn…

 

[DaddyChad]

That Kamarrion Franklin dude is going to be good at auburn…

Unfortunately I think you’re right.

 

[bray2milton]

Show one where they changed it.

That's been that way starting back when Rivals was the only game.

Why do you fight the truth so hard? I know your ego is involved. You don't want to admit you're wrong. But you actually look worse for continuing to do what you're doing.

Buddy you have something to say about everything. It’s amazing. EVERYTHING. What’s it like…….to know everything?

 

[sjt18]

Buddy you have something to say about everything. It’s amazing. EVERYTHING. What’s it like…….to know everything?

Well no, buddy, I don't. I have interest in some things and no interest in others. Feel free to put me on ignore if you are so triggered by factual posts. FTR, I remembered that the recruiting sites described their method... but had to look it up. Thus the link.

FWIW, you may have a certain perception because I work pretty hard not to spew things out of my rear. If I state an opinion... I have tried to make sure it lines up with the facts.

 

[bray2milton]

Well no, buddy, I don't. I have interest in some things and no interest in others. Feel free to put me on ignore if you are so triggered by factual posts. FTR, I remembered that the recruiting sites described their method... but had to look it up. Thus the link.

FWIW, you may have a certain perception because I work pretty hard not to spew things out of my rear. If I state an opinion... I have tried to make sure it lines up with the facts.

 

[NoogaVol96]

Man I bet y’all’s fingers are sore

 

[bray2milton]

Man I bet y’all’s fingers are sore

So sore.

 

[bobbyutvol]

Next up if the kid is all about just money then maybe we are lucky he is not coming to Tennessee. I much prefer a kid that wants to come to Tennessee to contribute to the program and because its a great program.

 

[IMissTheMidRangeGame]

Freezes slimy hands steal another prospect from us