My 2006 NCAA Predictions

#26
#26
VolinArizona:

U're seriously sticking with USC going undefeated, even with their coach, their great recruits who haven't started a D-1A game, and their home schedule. I'll bet my truck that they will NOt go undefeated.
 
#27
#27
(Vol423 @ Jun 20 said:
Let's see. You have 4 teams going undefeated, and you have 7 teams suffering only one loss. I don't think so.
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Believe me, I realized it was a high number. In 2004 5 teams went undefeated and 3 had one loss. That's 8, which is still short of my 11. And also, if a team I predict to finish 12-0 or 11-1 goes 11-1 or 10-2 respectively, my prediction is still pretty solid.
 
#28
#28
(BLEEDS ORANGE @ Jun 20 said:
VolinArizona:

U're seriously sticking with USC going undefeated, even with their coach, their great recruits who haven't started a D-1A game, and their home schedule. I'll bet my truck that they will NOt go undefeated.
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First things first, calm the eff down. This is supposed to be fun. You're not making it fun.

Second, here is USC's schedule:

@ Arkansas
Nebraska
@ Arizona
@ Washington State
Washington
Arizona State
@ Oregon State
@ Stanford
Oregon
California
Notre Dame
@ UCLA

They have 2 solid opponents on the road: Arkansas and UCLA. Arkansas is the first game, which is a tough game for new starters. UCLA shouldn't be as strong as last season. So, 6-0 on the road, because USC for sure has more talent than Arkansas, but it could be close.

Their top 5 toughest opponents are coming TO USC. That means Nebraska, ASU, and Oregon, who have lesser talent anyway, won't be able to make up ground with homefield.

Notre Dame and Cal, to me, are the toughest, and they have them at home. Both Notre Dame and Cal are a tad bit overrated, but can definitely match up well with USC. USC could easily be 10-2. EASILY. However, I feel they have the talent and head coach to win these games. Besides these 2 games, I see USC 10-0. Just because I put them at 12-0 doesn't mean I believe they are going to dominate everyone. I think they have just enough to get through the home heavy schedule.
 
#29
#29
Jake, I can't disagree with much of what you say, which makes the 2006 season so exciting to talk about. Every single team has question marks. Because we don't know how well Leak is adapting to the spread, Florida can conceivably go 11-1 or 7-5. I could predict both and be confident. Tennessee could go 11-1 or 7-5. One thing I think for sure is that the SEC races will be tight and amazing.
 
#30
#30
VolinArizona,

What's the story with Southern Cal's running backs? I haven't been keeping up with them during the summer, but I thought that I remembered hearing something about their top 2 running backs being injured. Is that correct, and if so, does USC expect those players to return and be available for the beginning of the season?
 
#31
#31
(Vol423 @ Jun 20 said:
VolinArizona,

What's the story with Southern Cal's running backs? I haven't been keeping up with them during the summer, but I thought that I remembered hearing something about their top 2 running backs being injured. Is that correct, and if so, does USC expect those players to return and be available for the beginning of the season?
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Not sure of the current status, but their planned starter, Hershel Dennis is not going to be there for the season. Desmond Reed should be available. Chauncey Washington is penciled in to start, but they have THREE parade All Americans waiting in the wings. Curse of riches. Their RB situation, IMO, is the most pressing. Booty or Sanchez should be fine at QB, especially with the stud WRs.

They have a ton of talent to choose from, but if they aren't mature enough to carry the ball 20 times a game, USC could lose a couple games.
 
#32
#32
(VolinArizona @ Jun 20 said:
Jake, I can't disagree with much of what you say, which makes the 2006 season so exciting to talk about. Every single team has question marks. Because we don't know how well Leak is adapting to the spread, Florida can conceivably go 11-1 or 7-5. I could predict both and be confident. Tennessee could go 11-1 or 7-5. One thing I think for sure is that the SEC races will be tight and amazing.
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everybody has an opinion, right? but i do agree, for the first time in a couple of years, it's pretty wide open....UF's schedule is daunting, granted, but i'm almost hyping them up a bit so they will fall....i don't know that they'll lose 5 games, but 3-4 isn't out of the relm of possibilities considering who they play and where.

I don't give UGA a lot of credit because of the ? at qb. if they are one dimensional on offense, which i think and hope they will be, they'll lose to us, AUB and UF.

LSU...i don't trust Miles....but they only have 4 games that should even remotely worry them...Auburn, Bama, UF, TN...and ARK, if ARK is as improved as i think they will be...

Aub...their kind of the wild card....they usually suck out loud when we expect the world from them...like this year....but on paper, there are only two games that look like real road blocks...Florida and LSU....o/t than those two games, i'd bet they'll be favored in every other one.

As to the rest of the nation....everyone has ?'s...ND and OSU have defensive ?'s. TX has one at qb. OK should be much better, but is Rhet Bomar the guy to take them back to prominance, and is that D as good as it was 3-4 years ago?

USC...should be a reload job, but i can't see 'em undefeated...but only really 3 games on paper..ASU, Cal and ND...i would expect them to be able to beat at leat 2 of those teams.

and as for us, we may be the biggest ? in all of college football this season....i think we're just as capable of winning the SEC as we are of finishing 4th in the East....
 
#33
#33
(jakez4ut @ Jun 20 said:
everybody has an opinion, right? but i do agree, for the first time in a couple of years, it's pretty wide open....UF's schedule is daunting, granted, but i'm almost hyping them up a bit so they will fall....i don't know that they'll lose 5 games, but 3-4 isn't out of the relm of possibilities considering who they play and where.

I don't give UGA a lot of credit because of the ? at qb. if they are one dimensional on offense, which i think and hope they will be, they'll lose to us, AUB and UF.

LSU...i don't trust Miles....but they only have 4 games that should even remotely worry them...Auburn, Bama, UF, TN...and ARK, if ARK is as improved as i think they will be...

Aub...their kind of the wild card....they usually suck out loud when we expect the world from them...like this year....but on paper, there are only two games that look like real road blocks...Florida and LSU....o/t than those two games, i'd bet they'll be favored in every other one.

As to the rest of the nation....everyone has ?'s...ND and OSU have defensive ?'s. TX has one at qb. OK should be much better, but is Rhet Bomar the guy to take them back to prominance, and is that D as good as it was 3-4 years ago?

USC...should be a reload job, but i can't see 'em undefeated...but only really 3 games on paper..ASU, Cal and ND...i would expect them to be able to beat at leat 2 of those teams.

and as for us, we may be the biggest ? in all of college football this season....i think we're just as capable of winning the SEC as we are of finishing 4th in the East....
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I agree with 99% of this post. :)

The 1% is I can see USC undefeated. Who knows if they will.

Florida has road games @ UT, Auburn, and Florida State. They have a neutral against Georgia. Then they have LSU at home.

But one thing is different for Florida this season. Usually, their first 2 games are against cupcakes, but they have Southern Miss and UCF, both of which should be bowl bound this season. Those teams will beat up on Florida more than Louisiana-Lafayette and D2 William and Mary ever could. This should be a huge advantage for the Vols. Then again, we have Cal. :(
 
#34
#34
(VolinArizona @ Jun 20 said:
I agree with 99% of this post. :)

The 1% is I can see USC undefeated. Who knows if they will.

Florida has road games @ UT, Auburn, and Florida State. They have a neutral against Georgia. Then they have LSU at home.

But one thing is different for Florida this season. Usually, their first 2 games are against cupcakes, but they have Southern Miss and UCF, both of which should be bowl bound this season. Those teams will beat up on Florida more than Louisiana-Lafayette and D2 William and Mary ever could. This should be a huge advantage for the Vols. Then again, we have Cal. :(
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99%? hm. i can live with that....i agree about UF and their early schedule...they won't lose, but they'll get tested. But even still, UF has the toughest schedule in the conf., no doubt.....
 
#35
#35
(VolinArizona @ Jun 20 said:
I agree with 99% of this post. :)

The 1% is I can see USC undefeated. Who knows if they will.

Florida has road games @ UT, Auburn, and Florida State. They have a neutral against Georgia. Then they have LSU at home.

But one thing is different for Florida this season. Usually, their first 2 games are against cupcakes, but they have Southern Miss and UCF, both of which should be bowl bound this season. Those teams will beat up on Florida more than Louisiana-Lafayette and D2 William and Mary ever could. This should be a huge advantage for the Vols. Then again, we have Cal. :(
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I see it as an advantage for both UT and Florida to play non-cupcakes before the UT/Florida game. Playing cupcakes doesn't really give you a chance to honestly assess and address the strengths and weaknesses of your team.
 
#36
#36
(Vol423 @ Jun 20 said:
I see it as an advantage for both UT and Florida to play non-cupcakes before the UT/Florida game. Playing cupcakes doesn't really give you a chance to honestly assess and address the strengths and weaknesses of your team.
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no, but it does give you a chance to work on rythem and timing, and hopefully confidence....which for an offense like UF ran in the 90's, was huge...they got two games to work out the kinks before they played TN back then...that i always thought was a big reason why they looked sharper than we did....we'd play, then sit back and watch, and are supposed to be ready for a top 10 match up in the conference by the 2nd game of the season.

cup cake or not, i'm glad we get more playing time early now...
 
#37
#37
(jakez4ut @ Jun 20 said:
no, but it does give you a chance to work on rythem and timing, and hopefully confidence....which for an offense like UF ran in the 90's, was huge...they got two games to work out the kinks before they played TN back then...that i always thought was a big reason why they looked sharper than we did....we'd play, then sit back and watch, and are supposed to be ready for a top 10 match up in the conference by the 2nd game of the season.

cup cake or not, i'm glad we get more playing time early now...
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Yep. I absolutely despised the bye week in Week 2. That was idiotic. It prevented UT from getting into a rhythm before the most important games of the season.
 
#38
#38
I'll throw this fearless prediction out here now, so come December I can say that everyone else jumped on the bandwagon that I built and started driving.

After going into October 28 against Notre Dame unbeaten and emerging unbeaten, the Navy Midshipmen will go into the bowl season with a perfect 12-0 record.

YOU SAW IT HERE FIRST!
 
#39
#39
As crazy as that sounds, it really could happen. They play a soft schedule, return a ton of starters and still run the triple option to perfection. Paul Johnson is an underrated head coach.
 
#40
#40
(GAVol @ Jun 20 said:
As crazy as that sounds, it really could happen. They play a soft schedule, return a ton of starters and still run the triple option to perfection. Paul Johnson is an underrated head coach.
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I know I've mentioned it before... But Navy's 4th quarter drive against New Mexico in the Emerald Bowl is still a huge achievment.

Going into next season... I say they head into bowl season 8-4.
 
#41
#41
(milohimself @ Jun 20 said:
Going into next season... I say they head into bowl season 8-4.
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That's about what I thought too until I found out that they were returning 18 starters and played this schedule:

September 2 East Carolina
September 9 Massachusetts
September 16 at Stanford
September 23 Tulsa
September 30 at Connecticut
October 7 at Air Force
October 14 Rutgers
October 28 Notre Dame
November 4 at Duke
November 11 at Eastern Michigan
November 18 Temple
December 2 Army
 
#42
#42
Actually I saw the schedule and knew what they were getting back and said 8-4. Or 9-3, for me it was a coin flip. There's no way they beat Notre Dame, so there's 11-1. Then after that you've got Stanford, Tulsa, UConn, Air Force and Rutgers. All of these teams could be suprisingly decent, which basically means a tough game for Navy. I'm thinking 3-2 or 2-3 against this group.
 
#43
#43
Interesting....I found a way to steer discussion toward Navy. Anyway, here's my reasons for giving them 12-0.

1) Navy runs their double slot offense nearly flawlessly; the entire playbook (with all variations) is only about 30 plays, and Navy doesn't even run that many. They picked out six or seven that work exceptionally well against any defense (triple, reverse triple, trap option w/ slotback, trap option w/ fullback, midline, midline lead, quick toss) and run them nonstop. There's no way to defend against every one of those plays, particularly one that will have as much practice experience as Navy...which leads to point
2) With such a limited playbook, the Midshipmen are able to run one play anywhere from 30-100 times in any given practice as a full team. This puts them at a huge advantage compared to teams with phonebook-sized playbooks, who can run a given play 3-10 times from a variety of formations
3) Speaking of formations...Navy opened last year's bowl game against Colorado State by running the same formation for 29 of the first 30 plays, and 30 of the first 35. The lack of formations means that Navy is better able to find a defense's tendencies and exploit them with...
4) The play action. Navy has no dropback passing and no sprint-out. They average over 300 rushing yards, and if the safeties aren't aggressive in run support then the defense gets gashed. If they are aggressive, a quick play action will make the defense adjust once again
5) How about these stats from last year? Their top 6 receivers averaged 10.33 catches (on the year), but the average yards per catch was 21.23. The top 11 rushers (9 of which return) averaged an insane 5.75 yards per carry...slotback Reggie (Mighty Mite) Campbell averaged 9 yards per carry, slotback Karlos Whittaker 7.8, and fullback Adam Ballard 6.1.
6) The playcalling doesn't favor one side or another (whether strong or weak, or field or boundary), which prevent a defense from stacking one way or another. If a defense does shift, Navy simply checks to the other side and they come away with a nice gain
7) Depth. The ease of learning the offense means more time getting reps and being better able to step in in the event of injury or other issues.
8) The schedule is incredibly weak; Notre Dame is the only game that I think could be a tossup. I'm not as impressed with Notre Dame as everyone else has been, and I do love a longshot. My pick for the Preakness was 12-1 Bernardini, and my Derby pick was 54-1 Bluegrass Cat (who finished 2nd). I love Navy in this game.
9) Paul Johnson put together a tremendous record at Georgia Southern with teams weaker in relation to the rest of their division than this....this is his most experienced team with the best players yet at nearly every position.
10) Adam Ballard is the prototype fullback for this offense; I never thought someone would make me forget Kyle Eckel, but this is definitely the one who can. Ballard could play any position on the field and excel and is the catalyst of the offense.

And there you have it....10 reasons for 12-0.
 
#44
#44
(Ohio Vol @ Jun 21 said:
Interesting....I found a way to steer discussion toward Navy. Anyway, here's my reasons for giving them 12-0.

1) Navy runs their double slot offense nearly flawlessly; the entire playbook (with all variations) is only about 30 plays, and Navy doesn't even run that many. They picked out six or seven that work exceptionally well against any defense (triple, reverse triple, trap option w/ slotback, trap option w/ fullback, midline, midline lead, quick toss) and run them nonstop. There's no way to defend against every one of those plays, particularly one that will have as much practice experience as Navy...which leads to point
2) With such a limited playbook, the Midshipmen are able to run one play anywhere from 30-100 times in any given practice as a full team. This puts them at a huge advantage compared to teams with phonebook-sized playbooks, who can run a given play 3-10 times from a variety of formations
3) Speaking of formations...Navy opened last year's bowl game against Colorado State by running the same formation for 29 of the first 30 plays, and 30 of the first 35. The lack of formations means that Navy is better able to find a defense's tendencies and exploit them with...
4) The play action. Navy has no dropback passing and no sprint-out. They average over 300 rushing yards, and if the safeties aren't aggressive in run support then the defense gets gashed. If they are aggressive, a quick play action will make the defense adjust once again
5) How about these stats from last year? Their top 6 receivers averaged 10.33 catches (on the year), but the average yards per catch was 21.23. The top 11 rushers (9 of which return) averaged an insane 5.75 yards per carry...slotback Reggie (Mighty Mite) Campbell averaged 9 yards per carry, slotback Karlos Whittaker 7.8, and fullback Adam Ballard 6.1.
6) The playcalling doesn't favor one side or another (whether strong or weak, or field or boundary), which prevent a defense from stacking one way or another. If a defense does shift, Navy simply checks to the other side and they come away with a nice gain
7) Depth. The ease of learning the offense means more time getting reps and being better able to step in in the event of injury or other issues.
8) The schedule is incredibly weak; Notre Dame is the only game that I think could be a tossup. I'm not as impressed with Notre Dame as everyone else has been, and I do love a longshot. My pick for the Preakness was 12-1 Bernardini, and my Derby pick was 54-1 Bluegrass Cat (who finished 2nd). I love Navy in this game.
9) Paul Johnson put together a tremendous record at Georgia Southern with teams weaker in relation to the rest of their division than this....this is his most experienced team with the best players yet at nearly every position.
10) Adam Ballard is the prototype fullback for this offense; I never thought someone would make me forget Kyle Eckel, but this is definitely the one who can. Ballard could play any position on the field and excel and is the catalyst of the offense.

And there you have it....10 reasons for 12-0.
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Georgia Southern won National Championships under Erk Russell long before Johnson took over.
 
#45
#45
(Ohio Vol @ Jun 21 said:
Interesting....I found a way to steer discussion toward Navy. Anyway, here's my reasons for giving them 12-0.

1) Navy runs their double slot offense nearly flawlessly; the entire playbook (with all variations) is only about 30 plays, and Navy doesn't even run that many. They picked out six or seven that work exceptionally well against any defense (triple, reverse triple, trap option w/ slotback, trap option w/ fullback, midline, midline lead, quick toss) and run them nonstop. There's no way to defend against every one of those plays, particularly one that will have as much practice experience as Navy...which leads to point
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Were you a grad coaching assistant at navy at some point?
 
#46
#46
hatvol,

True, but it's not like Georgia Southern was winning games on talent in spite of their coaching. It's tough to discount his track record there when you see what he's done at Navy.

Oklavol,

I played in this offense, I coached this offense (not at Navy, although you'd better believe I'd jump at that chance), and a former teammate of mine played under Paul Johnson at Navy. Throw in the fact that I've been tracking Navy football for the last two years and it's a bit easier to pinpoint what they do, how often they do it, etc. It's not even as complicated as Nebraska's old I-formation option offense was.
 
#47
#47
(Ohio Vol @ Jun 21 said:
hatvol,

True, but it's not like Georgia Southern was winning games on talent in spite of their coaching. It's tough to discount his track record there when you see what he's done at Navy.

Oklavol,

I played in this offense, I coached this offense (not at Navy, although you'd better believe I'd jump at that chance), and a former teammate of mine played under Paul Johnson at Navy. Throw in the fact that I've been tracking Navy football for the last two years and it's a bit easier to pinpoint what they do, how often they do it, etc. It's not even as complicated as Nebraska's old I-formation option offense was.
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I wasn't discounting what he did at Ga. Southern. However, in the interest of full disclosure, I think it's fair to point out that he didn't build the program there.
 
#48
#48
(Ohio Vol @ Jun 20 said:
I'll throw this fearless prediction out here now, so come December I can say that everyone else jumped on the bandwagon that I built and started driving.

After going into October 28 against Notre Dame unbeaten and emerging unbeaten, the Navy Midshipmen will go into the bowl season with a perfect 12-0 record.

YOU SAW IT HERE FIRST!
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Can you say 42 in a row! Please...
 
#49
#49
(NDShane @ Jun 21 said:
Can you say 42 in a row! Please...
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Welcome aboard :hi:
Hope you didn't sign in just to put the spit shine on that golden dome just the once. :D

Post often. Irish opinions are welcome. They are not given much weight. But they are welcome....
 
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