85SugarVol
I prefer the tumult of Liberty
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2010
- Messages
- 32,424
- Likes
- 63,602
Election polling and attempts to forecast outcomes is one thing.I could care less about any candidates poll numbers. YMMV. I was around for Kennedy-Nixon and me pappy told me all about Truman-Dewey. Let me further explin why.
Pencil and paper?
Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is irrevocably broken,” that pollsters should be ignored, or that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”
Election polling, however, is just one application of public opinion polling, though obviously a prominent one. Pollsters often point to successes in forecasting elections as a reason to trust polling as a whole. But what is the relevance of election polling’s problems in 2020 for the rest of what public opinion polling attempts to do? Given the errors in 2016 and 2020, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issue
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?www.pewresearch.org
Generic approval polls.
Whether they are overstated or understated - directionally, they have continued to move downwards.