New York City

#2,826
#2,826
NashVol11 said:
No it doesn't, at all. If you are making the argument that raw numbers matter more than rates do, you have to defend those extremes too. You have to defend the notion that a city with 20 murders among 100K people is "more dangerous" than a city with 15 murders among 1,000 people. I think that's clearly silly, but you do you
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It depends on the circumstances of the murders. A 100k population city with 20 unassociated random people murdered during a robbery or other crime is probably more dangerous than the 1000 population city with 15 murders coming from domestic violence, drug deal gone bad ext.
 
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#2,831
#2,831
hog88 said:
It depends on the circumstances of the murders. A 100k population city with 20 unassociated random people murdered during a robbery or other crime is probably more dangerous than the 1000 population city with 15 murders coming from domestic violence, drug deal gone bad ext.
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I'd say one has to look at the kinds of murders, as you point out. Street-shootings happening often compared to a rash of domestic violence? Then, it seems, that it's more dangerous in one place to go out in public than it is dangerous simply to have married or moved int with a violent person.
 
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#2,834
#2,834
LouderVol said:
you realize you are talking to someone who has lives in atlanta, and not luther's posh neighborhood, and takes Marta every chance he can.

i am not afraid, I just understand math
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Same here, and the wife and I are planning to move to even a much larger city than we're in, as we spend most of our free time traveling there now. But hey, he comes into a threat complaining that he thinks the posters are just villainizing strangers with broad brush attacks, just to villainize strangers with broad brush attacks. It's just more of that Liberal tolerance, inclusion, and acceptance, sans even a hint of hypocrisy.
 
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#2,835
#2,835
Orange_Crush said:
In a per-capita statistic, I would assume that the murder rate stat indicates how likely you are to experience a murder, so as the population goes down, the statistic still indicates how likely you are to come across a murderer.

If you are in a room with 1000 people, and one murderer, you're theoretically just as likely as being in a town of 1000 people. Except that this doesn't account for proximity. If those 1000 people are in a civic auditorium, you're probably more likely to come across that murderer than if those same 1000 people were spread across an area of 20 SQ miles.

So, if the population is denser in NY, you're probably more likely to meet the murderers than you are in a small TN town.
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exactly. that is why I tell them the odds are better in a big city, but you face those odds way more times. and the end result is more murders.
 
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#2,836
#2,836
LouderVol said:
you realize you are talking to someone who has lives in atlanta, and not luther's posh neighborhood, and takes Marta every chance he can.

i am not afraid, I just understand math
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I wasn’t talking about you specifically, you can put any 5 right wingers together and say the name of a city and they’ll start ranting about it.

I wouldn’t say that going all-in on totals and ignoring the denominator is exhibiting a great understanding of math, though
 
#2,838
#2,838
Bussing the illegal invaders to NYC, DC, CHi etc was brilliant and needs to continue until the border is secure.

Funny how the Liberals in power in ALL THREE of those locations were 100% PRO-INVASION and very vocal and proud about flouting federal LAWS to be " Sanctuary Cities".....right up until the moment THEY had to actually house, feed, clog up hospitals, and deal with the HUGE crime problem from all these millions of poor invaders. Now that just a FRACTION of the illegals actually exist where those Liberal idiots that vote for this nonsense LIVE THEMSELVES ...Its the end of the world, and " something HAS to change!"

Guess where all those illegals went BEFORE they started shipping just a fraction to Democrat Sancutary Cities? The same place all the rest of them STILL GO...swing states like NC, VA, GA, also TN. Huge populations in FLA, TX, AZ ,NM etc. So all the Red States. By design. At least 12 Million over the last 4 years. Who show up and immediately go on government assistance programs that nobody can afford. While Western NC rots and people have absolutely no help except a $750 one time check from FEMA. Americans who actually lost everything, including family members in some cases.

As long as they keep pouring over the border, keep those buses rolling to these Democrat strongholds that overwhelmingly voted for this to begin with...AND just voted for 4 more years of it a couple weeks ago. Keep bussing them until border states arent overwhelmed anymore. Send them all to the people who voted for them to be here. They will fit right in. We dont need anymore down here in the South. I have firsthand, every single day experience to know that there are more than we need here already. Try to go to the Emergency Room in Charlotte, Knoxville, Nashville, etc and get back to me. My daughter lost her Social Security card. Try to go to the SS office. You will understand then, if you dont already.
 
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#2,841
#2,841
NashVol11 said:
Yes, everyone’s leaving

'New York City Metro Area Population 1950-2024'
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2030 Apportionment Forecast - 2023

As of December 2023.
thearp.org thearp.org


Not everyone. But many are. To be fair, this information covers the entire state of NY, not just NYC.


“At -2.1%, New York's population decline continues to lead the nation. The Empire State lost 1.2% of its population from July 2020 to July 2021, 0.9% from July 2021 to July 2022, and 0.5% from July 2022 to July 2023. The state has lost a net 533,494 residents in three years.”


But the NYT published this.

www.nytimes.com

New York City’s Population Shrinks by 78,000, According to Census Data

City officials said that the new census estimates did not fully account for the growing number of migrants, which would have resulted in a minimal drop being reported.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com


Although to be fair the NYT is liberal garbage ran by garbage liberals.
 
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#2,843
#2,843
jp1 said:
He assumes a ton about anybody with a difference of opinion.
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Conservatives complaining about cities, as there are about 17 threads on this forum covering most major cities in the U.S. and a “Crime in the U.S.” thread on top of that, is hardly an assumption
 
#2,844
#2,844
NashVol11 said:
Conservatives complaining about cities, as there are about 17 threads on this forum covering most major cities in the U.S. and a “Crime in the U.S.” thread on top of that, is hardly an assumption
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Is it a fear of cities, or conservatives pointing out problems with liberal leadership? Which cities are the threads about? And if you're including the "Crime in the US" thread, that's less about cities and more about crime.
 
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#2,845
#2,845
NashVol11 said:
I wasn’t talking about you specifically, you can put any 5 right wingers together and say the name of a city and they’ll start ranting about it.

I wouldn’t say that going all-in on totals and ignoring the denominator is exhibiting a great understanding of math, though
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How am I the one ignoring the denominator? You are the one refusing to recognize there are several thousand times more people in New York City than Sneedville that impacts the equation.

You aren't going to run into 1000 people in a day in Sneedville TN.
You are going to run into several thousand, probably tens of thousands, people in a day in New York City.

the rates HAVE to be applied to the population. Its a meaningless statistic otherwise. Its literally part of the equation. its whatever crime statistic you want per unit of POPULATION. you can't ignore the Population side of it.
 
#2,846
#2,846
LouderVol said:
How am I the one ignoring the denominator? You are the one refusing to recognize there are several thousand times more people in New York City than Sneedville that impacts the equation.

You aren't going to run into 1000 people in a day in Sneedville TN.
You are going to run into several thousand, probably tens of thousands, people in a day in New York City.

the rates HAVE to be applied to the population. Its a meaningless statistic otherwise. Its literally part of the equation. its whatever crime statistic you want per unit of POPULATION. you can't ignore the Population side of it.
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Yes, the "understanding math" way to compare danger levels is to focus only on total crimes...
then realize that the cities at the top of the total crimes list are the highest-population cities every year,
and then realize you're just measuring population in a different way which makes that data mostly useless,
and then start to look at which cities rank higher or lower on the "total crimes" list compared to the population list, so that you are effectively dividing total crimes by population,
and then we've arrived at how everyone calculates crime rates in 2024.

FWIW, I'm open to the idea that NYC's crime rate underestimates its level of danger based on population density, but I don't think that makes the raw totals focus any less bad/mostly worthless. Do you think the most dangerous city in the U.S. is just NYC every single year?
 
#2,847
#2,847
NashVol11 said:
Yes, the "understanding math" way to compare danger levels is to focus only on total crimes...
then realize that the cities at the top of the total crimes list are the highest-population cities every year,
and then realize you're just measuring population in a different way which makes that data mostly useless,
and then start to look at which cities rank higher or lower on the "total crimes" list compared to the population list, so that you are effectively dividing total crimes by population,
and then we've arrived at how everyone calculates crime rates in 2024.

FWIW, I'm open to the idea that NYC's crime rate underestimates its level of danger based on population density, but I don't think that makes the raw totals focus any less bad/mostly worthless. Do you think the most dangerous city in the U.S. is just NYC every single year?
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you can't just stop with the rate. you have to apply the rate. you ignored the question earlier, if you had a choice between facing a 1/10 chance of something bad happening to you once, or a 1/1000 chance something bad happens to you one thousand times which are you choosing? Its clear to me the 1/1000 a thousand times is more dangerous than a 1/10 chance once. do you disagree?

personally I have visited NYC but not Sneedville so I can't tell you what I would "feel" as worse. but assuming Sneedville crimes in a similar small town I have visited I would confidently say I would feel safer in that small town than NYC. thats not to say I would feel unsafe in NYC, but I would approach each far differently.
 
#2,848
#2,848
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#2,849
#2,849
LouderVol said:
you can't just stop with the rate. you have to apply the rate. you ignored the question earlier, if you had a choice between facing a 1/10 chance of something bad happening to you once, or a 1/1000 chance something bad happens to you one thousand times which are you choosing? Its clear to me the 1/1000 a thousand times is more dangerous than a 1/10 chance once. do you disagree?

personally I have visited NYC but not Sneedville so I can't tell you what I would "feel" as worse. but assuming Sneedville crimes in a similar small town I have visited I would confidently say I would feel safer in that small town than NYC. thats not to say I would feel unsafe in NYC, but I would approach each far differently.
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I don’t disagree with that, but I’m not sure it works out perfectly that way either. In other words, if NYC has 1/10 the crime rate of Nashville because it has 10x as many people, I don’t think that necessarily means that I run into 10x as many people per day in NYC compared to downtown Nashville.

To the question at the end of my last post, I think there are times when places like Detroit were considered the most dangerous city in the U.S. and rightfully so, despite the fact that NYC probably had more total crimes in many of those years
 
#2,850
#2,850
NashVol11 said:
I don’t disagree with that, but I’m not sure it works out perfectly that way either. In other words, if NYC has 1/10 the crime rate of Nashville because it has 10x as many people, I don’t think that necessarily means that I run into 10x as many people per day in NYC compared to downtown Nashville.

To the question at the end of my last post, I think there are times when places like Detroit were considered the most dangerous city in the U.S. and rightfully so, despite the fact that NYC probably had more total crimes in many of those years
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number of interactions comes down to lifestyle. NYC has much more people who walk or take public transportation than in Nashville. I doubt it works out as cleanly as 10x; but its clearly going to be far more of an issue.

its why I always get a laugh when luther talks about Atlanta, he gets down to the city only a couple times, in controlled situations, to only certain locations. he is going to have a far different experience than someone who lives and works there, and travels all throughout the city for work or play.
 
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