Persian Vol
I should be studying.
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With only two weeks to go, I am going to give my biased (yet strong) case on why Matt Ryan should be the MVP of the National Football League. Here are some notable stats from NFL quarterbacks that are potential MVP candidates.
Passer Rating
Matt Ryan: 114.8
Tom Brady: 109.7
Dak Prescott: 103.2
Drew Brees: 103.0
Aaron Rodgers: 100.3
Kirk Cousins: 100.3
Matthew Stafford: 95.8
Derek Carr: 95.2
Touchdown Passes
Drew Brees: 34
Matt Ryan: 32
Aaron Rodgers: 32
Derek Carr: 25
Kirk Cousins: 23
Tom Brady: 22 (2.2 p/g --> ~31 adjusted)
Matthew Stafford: 22
Dak Prescott: 20
Interceptions
Drew Brees: 14
Kirk Cousins: 9
Matthew Stafford: 8
Aaron Rodgers: 7
Matt Ryan: 7
Derek Carr: 6
Dak Prescott: 4
Tom Brady: 2 (.2 p/g --> ~3 adjusted)
Yards Per Game
Drew Brees: 325.6
Kirk Cousins: 311.2
Matt Ryan: 309.7
Tom Brady: 306.4
Aaron Rodgers: 270.1
Matthew Stafford 265.7
Derek Carr: 264.6
Dak Prescott: 244.1
Completion Percentage
Drew Brees: 71.1
Matt Ryan: 68.6
Dak Prescott: 67.7
Kirk Cousins: 67.5
Tom Brady: 66.9
Matthew Stafford: 66.3
Aaron Rodgers: 64.9
Derek Carr: 63.5
Yards Per Attempt
Matt Ryan: 9.3
Kirk Cousins: 8.2
Tom Brady: 8.2
Dak Prescott: 7.9
Drew Brees: 7.7
Matthew Stafford: 7.3
Aaron Rodgers 7.1
Derek Carr: 7.0
Completed passes of 40+ yards
Matt Ryan: 17
Kirk Cousins: 10
Matthew Stafford: 10
Aaron Rodgers 9:
Dree Brees: 8
Derek Carr: 8
Dak Prescott: 8
Tom Brady: 7 (.8 p/g --> 10 adjusted)
Total PPG for offense
Atlanta: 33.5
New Orleans: 29.0
Oakland: 26.9
Dallas: 26.1
New England: 26.1
Green Bay: 25.9
Washington: 25.4
Detroit: 21.5
Takeaways...
1) Matt Ryan's Passer Rating
Matt Ryan clearly has the best passer rating in the NFL. But where does this season rank historically? Well in fact, this ranks fifth all time(!!!) in the history of the NFL for quarterbacks with at least 400 passing attempts. Who is he behind?
2011 Aaron Rodgers
2004 Peyton Manning
2007 Tom Brady
2013 Peyton Manning
Now all of these players have won an MVP during that year. While Matt Ryan is just behind these guys, just keep in mind that he has a better passer rating than more than ~80% of the quarterbacks to win an MVP award that season.
2) Yards Per Attempt
Matt Ryan not only leads this category, but absolutely demolishes this category. In fact, 9.3 YPA if maintained, will be the highest for an NFL QB with 400+ attempts in history (!!!). To put this in perspective, our league leader in passing yards, Drew Brees, has thrown the ball 589 times this season. Matt Ryan, has thrown it 465 times. Drew Brees does hold a 200 yardage lead over Matt, but it took him an extra 124 attempts. That is practically a 20% increase in attempts, with only a 4% increase in yards in comparison to Matt Ryan. This statistic does a great job in explaining Matt Ryans high quarterback rating, especially for those who only focus on total yardage and touchdowns.
3) The Deep Ball
Matt Ryan not only leads the league in 20+ yard throws, but he dominates the other candidates in balls thrown down the field at 40+ yards. Matt Ryan has as many deep balls as Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers combined (!!!).
4) The Offense
The Falcons have separated themselves has the best offense in the league, and it isn't very close. In fact, this is the best offense in the league since Peyton Manning's Broncos in 2013. This offense ranks in the top ten all time according to points per game.
5) The Consistency
Part 1 (yards)
Matt Ryan has struggled with interceptions during the past two seasons to this one, but he has done something that no other quarterback has done as consistently as him. Move the ball. A lot of people think that his streak of 50+ games in a row with 200+ yards is not that impressive, saying that most quarterbacks are capable of doing that in todays age. Well if you believe that, keep in mind that Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have all had a <200 yard passing game this year (!!!). Even Drew Brees came awfully close; only putting up 207 yards to the 49ers. What was Matt Ryan's worst game this season in terms of yardage? 237 yards against the rams, and that was because they were up so much he didn't even play the 4th quarter.
Part 2) Touchdowns
Matt Ryan is not only efficient at moving the ball down the field, but is also efficient at putting the ball in the end zone. Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Derek Carr have all had a game in which they completed zero touchdown passes. Matt Ryan is the only one among them to complete a touchdown pass in every game this season (!!!).
6) Performance against elite compeition
Both of these quarterbacks had the opportunity to play two of the best defenses in the league, that being the Seahawks and the Broncos. Both had to play in Denver. Ryan had to play at Seattle, while Brady was at home. Lets take a look at how each quarterback did against these teams.
Brady
504 yards
0 Touchdowns
1 Interception
79.2 Passer Rating
Ryan
602 Passing Yards
4 Touchdowns
1 Interception
100.6 Passer Rating
Keep in mind that the falcons frankly should have had an opportunity to win if not for an awful no call on Sherman. Also keep in mind that Ryan's one interception during the Seahawks came from a dropped pass by Julio. That leads me to my next point...
7) The myth that the Falcons offensive success is only because of Julio Jones
It is common for many fans who clearly never watch the falcons this year to think that Matt Ryan's success is purely from Julio Jones. As a falcons fan, I can assure you that is far from the truth. Julio is an incredible weapon, and makes this offense explosive at times. But what makes this offense different from previous years is Matts ability to spread the ball. He has completed passes to practically every receiver, tight end, full back, and running back on the roster. In fact, if our third string tight end doesn't drop a pass, Matt Ryan ties the record for throwing a TD to the most number of players in a single season. In two games without Julio, the falcons still managed to score 40+ points in both games, and Matt had a passer rating of 135.6 during that span. Lets also keep in mind that 3 of Matt Ryan's 7 interceptions came from Julio inexplicably dropping the ball. Many common fans see Julio as a flashy playmaker, and wrongfully think of him has our most valuable player, but every Falcons fans knows that Matt Ryan is clearly the anchor of this team. But your average fan obsessed with flash and big names does not and probably will not acknowledge this.
8) The Reason why Matt Ryan WILL NOT win MVP.
Well. Its Matt Ryan. Players like Matt Ryan on a 9-5 team are not going to win an MVP award. Lets be honest, an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady with identical stats is a runaway favorite for MVP at this point. Matt Ryan has done more than any other player in this league on offense in terms of helping his team. He has the best quarterback rating, is clearly the most consistent, and has been the anchor for the best offense since the 2013 Broncos. But at the end of the day, the Falcons are 9-5 due to their awful defense. While young and talented, they are truly awful. The falcons have only won one game this entire season when scoring less than 30 points. Clearly there is a lot of pressure on Ryan to succeed if they want to make the playoffs. Fortunately, he has done just that. You could argue the falcons would easily be 4-10 right now if Matt Ryan was not their quarterback. If the falcons had at least an average defense, they could possibly be 12-2, and Matt Ryan would be the clear favorite despite being "Matt Ryan". At the end of the day, Matt Ryan isn't going to win the MVP because his name is Matt Ryan, and because he has an awful defense around him.
Conclusion
If he wins out and maintains his stellar play, (which he most likely will considering his next two opponents being the Panthers and Saints), he should be the MVP of the NFL with clearly the best stats on the best offense on an 11-5 team. But even if this happens, I still don't think he will win the award. After all, whos going to vote this guy for MVP?
Well... You should.
Passer Rating
Matt Ryan: 114.8
Tom Brady: 109.7
Dak Prescott: 103.2
Drew Brees: 103.0
Aaron Rodgers: 100.3
Kirk Cousins: 100.3
Matthew Stafford: 95.8
Derek Carr: 95.2
Touchdown Passes
Drew Brees: 34
Matt Ryan: 32
Aaron Rodgers: 32
Derek Carr: 25
Kirk Cousins: 23
Tom Brady: 22 (2.2 p/g --> ~31 adjusted)
Matthew Stafford: 22
Dak Prescott: 20
Interceptions
Drew Brees: 14
Kirk Cousins: 9
Matthew Stafford: 8
Aaron Rodgers: 7
Matt Ryan: 7
Derek Carr: 6
Dak Prescott: 4
Tom Brady: 2 (.2 p/g --> ~3 adjusted)
Yards Per Game
Drew Brees: 325.6
Kirk Cousins: 311.2
Matt Ryan: 309.7
Tom Brady: 306.4
Aaron Rodgers: 270.1
Matthew Stafford 265.7
Derek Carr: 264.6
Dak Prescott: 244.1
Completion Percentage
Drew Brees: 71.1
Matt Ryan: 68.6
Dak Prescott: 67.7
Kirk Cousins: 67.5
Tom Brady: 66.9
Matthew Stafford: 66.3
Aaron Rodgers: 64.9
Derek Carr: 63.5
Yards Per Attempt
Matt Ryan: 9.3
Kirk Cousins: 8.2
Tom Brady: 8.2
Dak Prescott: 7.9
Drew Brees: 7.7
Matthew Stafford: 7.3
Aaron Rodgers 7.1
Derek Carr: 7.0
Completed passes of 40+ yards
Matt Ryan: 17
Kirk Cousins: 10
Matthew Stafford: 10
Aaron Rodgers 9:
Dree Brees: 8
Derek Carr: 8
Dak Prescott: 8
Tom Brady: 7 (.8 p/g --> 10 adjusted)
Total PPG for offense
Atlanta: 33.5
New Orleans: 29.0
Oakland: 26.9
Dallas: 26.1
New England: 26.1
Green Bay: 25.9
Washington: 25.4
Detroit: 21.5
Takeaways...
1) Matt Ryan's Passer Rating
Matt Ryan clearly has the best passer rating in the NFL. But where does this season rank historically? Well in fact, this ranks fifth all time(!!!) in the history of the NFL for quarterbacks with at least 400 passing attempts. Who is he behind?
2011 Aaron Rodgers
2004 Peyton Manning
2007 Tom Brady
2013 Peyton Manning
Now all of these players have won an MVP during that year. While Matt Ryan is just behind these guys, just keep in mind that he has a better passer rating than more than ~80% of the quarterbacks to win an MVP award that season.
2) Yards Per Attempt
Matt Ryan not only leads this category, but absolutely demolishes this category. In fact, 9.3 YPA if maintained, will be the highest for an NFL QB with 400+ attempts in history (!!!). To put this in perspective, our league leader in passing yards, Drew Brees, has thrown the ball 589 times this season. Matt Ryan, has thrown it 465 times. Drew Brees does hold a 200 yardage lead over Matt, but it took him an extra 124 attempts. That is practically a 20% increase in attempts, with only a 4% increase in yards in comparison to Matt Ryan. This statistic does a great job in explaining Matt Ryans high quarterback rating, especially for those who only focus on total yardage and touchdowns.
3) The Deep Ball
Matt Ryan not only leads the league in 20+ yard throws, but he dominates the other candidates in balls thrown down the field at 40+ yards. Matt Ryan has as many deep balls as Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers combined (!!!).
4) The Offense
The Falcons have separated themselves has the best offense in the league, and it isn't very close. In fact, this is the best offense in the league since Peyton Manning's Broncos in 2013. This offense ranks in the top ten all time according to points per game.
5) The Consistency
Part 1 (yards)
Matt Ryan has struggled with interceptions during the past two seasons to this one, but he has done something that no other quarterback has done as consistently as him. Move the ball. A lot of people think that his streak of 50+ games in a row with 200+ yards is not that impressive, saying that most quarterbacks are capable of doing that in todays age. Well if you believe that, keep in mind that Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady have all had a <200 yard passing game this year (!!!). Even Drew Brees came awfully close; only putting up 207 yards to the 49ers. What was Matt Ryan's worst game this season in terms of yardage? 237 yards against the rams, and that was because they were up so much he didn't even play the 4th quarter.
Part 2) Touchdowns
Matt Ryan is not only efficient at moving the ball down the field, but is also efficient at putting the ball in the end zone. Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Derek Carr have all had a game in which they completed zero touchdown passes. Matt Ryan is the only one among them to complete a touchdown pass in every game this season (!!!).
6) Performance against elite compeition
Both of these quarterbacks had the opportunity to play two of the best defenses in the league, that being the Seahawks and the Broncos. Both had to play in Denver. Ryan had to play at Seattle, while Brady was at home. Lets take a look at how each quarterback did against these teams.
Brady
504 yards
0 Touchdowns
1 Interception
79.2 Passer Rating
Ryan
602 Passing Yards
4 Touchdowns
1 Interception
100.6 Passer Rating
Keep in mind that the falcons frankly should have had an opportunity to win if not for an awful no call on Sherman. Also keep in mind that Ryan's one interception during the Seahawks came from a dropped pass by Julio. That leads me to my next point...
7) The myth that the Falcons offensive success is only because of Julio Jones
It is common for many fans who clearly never watch the falcons this year to think that Matt Ryan's success is purely from Julio Jones. As a falcons fan, I can assure you that is far from the truth. Julio is an incredible weapon, and makes this offense explosive at times. But what makes this offense different from previous years is Matts ability to spread the ball. He has completed passes to practically every receiver, tight end, full back, and running back on the roster. In fact, if our third string tight end doesn't drop a pass, Matt Ryan ties the record for throwing a TD to the most number of players in a single season. In two games without Julio, the falcons still managed to score 40+ points in both games, and Matt had a passer rating of 135.6 during that span. Lets also keep in mind that 3 of Matt Ryan's 7 interceptions came from Julio inexplicably dropping the ball. Many common fans see Julio as a flashy playmaker, and wrongfully think of him has our most valuable player, but every Falcons fans knows that Matt Ryan is clearly the anchor of this team. But your average fan obsessed with flash and big names does not and probably will not acknowledge this.
8) The Reason why Matt Ryan WILL NOT win MVP.
Well. Its Matt Ryan. Players like Matt Ryan on a 9-5 team are not going to win an MVP award. Lets be honest, an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady with identical stats is a runaway favorite for MVP at this point. Matt Ryan has done more than any other player in this league on offense in terms of helping his team. He has the best quarterback rating, is clearly the most consistent, and has been the anchor for the best offense since the 2013 Broncos. But at the end of the day, the Falcons are 9-5 due to their awful defense. While young and talented, they are truly awful. The falcons have only won one game this entire season when scoring less than 30 points. Clearly there is a lot of pressure on Ryan to succeed if they want to make the playoffs. Fortunately, he has done just that. You could argue the falcons would easily be 4-10 right now if Matt Ryan was not their quarterback. If the falcons had at least an average defense, they could possibly be 12-2, and Matt Ryan would be the clear favorite despite being "Matt Ryan". At the end of the day, Matt Ryan isn't going to win the MVP because his name is Matt Ryan, and because he has an awful defense around him.
Conclusion
If he wins out and maintains his stellar play, (which he most likely will considering his next two opponents being the Panthers and Saints), he should be the MVP of the NFL with clearly the best stats on the best offense on an 11-5 team. But even if this happens, I still don't think he will win the award. After all, whos going to vote this guy for MVP?
Well... You should.
