Battle of NIL not coaches..
That may be true, or partly true. It's not likely it's entirely wrong.
My guess is that the NIL money is part of the decision process. How big a part will vary with the target recruit and their individual circumstances.
Let's make some assumptions (these are just numbers pulled out of the air to stimulate discussion) about things that typically go into a high school player's decision.
The location of the school, close to her home or halfway across the country. How does that match up with her ideal? 10%
Academic reputation. Some kids won't care very much. For others it's a big deal. 20%
Basketball stuff- School's record, trend, # of players in the W, chemistry with the coaching staff!!!! 50%
That leaves 20% for tie breakers, assuming that two schools come out pretty closely matched on all the rest. Obviously if a kid comes from a poor family, and University of Big Bucks offers twice what the U of the Middle of the Road puts on the table, it's a no brainer where she's going to commit.
There are other factors, and the percentages will be different for each recruit, but it's likely that NIL money will be a part, often a major part, of the decision.
The obvious tendency for fans, when we lose a recruiting battle, is to assume we got outbid. Sometimes that will be true. Other times it may be one of the other factors, or a combination of things. Unless the recruit tells the world on tik tok or instagram, we will never know precisely why they decided to go elsewhere. But the lack of facts has never got in the way of message board declarations.