Not too early....Utah State article

[Madmartigan]

Long answers are sometimes nice, and necessary, as it wasn't a short question really.

Despite not being adjusted for SOS that's still impressive to put that many guys in the NFL. I'll ask another question now as well, seeing as you're the one I seem to get the most objective answers from on either side of this discussion haha. While I don't know what our run game will look like against you, I do believe our passing game will be where we can excel. How much talent do you actually return on defense? I've seen a lot of different answers for this. I think the defense is the biggest question for both of us. Yours very well could be either worse or better than last year, but due to some key players like Johnson, Maggit, and Sutton returning, our secondary and QB pressure may actually be better. Also we're going to be speedier and more athletic so there's a chance we could be better against the run outside as well. I guess in short what should we look for in terms of matchups and such on defense, and who all do you return?

Last year Utah State gave up a total of 106.9 rushing yards per game. In the past three seasons we have allowed exactly two individual 100 yard rushers:Jay Ajayi of Boise State 20 carries 109 yards. (injury excuse alert) we were starting a walk-on QB at that point and were still adjusting to no Chuckie Keeton, who accounted for 85% of the offense the first few games, so the Defense was on the field all night. Montee Ball in 2012. Took him 30 carries to get over 100 yards, so I feel OK about that one. The nature of the defense is that we don't give up big plays in the run game and are stiff in the red zone. Don't expect to run easily against us.

Talent wise on Defense we return four ALL MWC Performers: DE B.J. Larsen, LB Kyler Fackrell (1-2 round projected pick), Zach Vigil SS Brian Suite. The nature of our 3-4 scheme is there is quite a bit of rotation in the front seven, so guys who have seen significant playing time, but didn't start are: Ricky Alifua, Travis Seefeldt, Elvis Kamana-Matagi, Nick Vigil,Eric Berntson, Tavaris McMillian.

Now for the scary part, secondary. WE had our starting corner and starting safety from last year drafted into the NFL. We only return one major contributor at strong safety in Brian Suite. I fully expect him to be drafted into the league, but the rest is worrisome. We have a Tennessee transfer slated to start at corner in Daniel Gray and fellow Floridian and three year contributor to start the other side in Rashard Stewart. Our other safety has seen time- Frankie Sutera, but I maybe able to beat him in a foot race. He also has given up big passing plays in the past. We have been quite vulnerable historically to long pass plays. Last season alone Utah, BYU, and USC torched us a few times on long passing plays. We play an aggressive style of defense and many times our CBs are left one on one with more athletic WR. I doubt we do this against Tennessee unless we want to get curb stomped immediately.

We have a few JC CB coming in, but you never know how they'll pan out. Overall the lack of returning depth in the secondary is my biggest concern. NO slight on Tennessee but I was not overly impressed with Worley. It maybe will be that I saw too small of a sample size, but he doesn't seem to be a world beater. I think the key to the game for Tennessee will be getting it to your big athletic receivers on slants, quick outs, etc. USU usually gets pressure because we blitz and have good LB.

Now for some tape, if you want to see some of the players I mentioned you can watch. Admittedly this is against a terrible Hawaii team, but you can see the guys you will be facing:

Brian Suite: 1:37, Frankie Sutera (slow, slow, slow) 2:41, Kyler Fackrell 3:01, 3:34 Happy to post more film if you'd like. Now tell me about your WR!

2013 USU vs Hawaii Highlight - YouTube

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

Last year Utah State gave up a total of 106.9 rushing yards per game. In the past three seasons we have allowed exactly two individual 100 yard rushers:Jay Ajayi of Boise State 20 carries 109 yards. (injury excuse alert) we were starting a walk-on QB at that point and were still adjusting to no Chuckie Keeton, who accounted for 85% of the offense the first few games, so the Defense was on the field all night. Montee Ball in 2012. Took him 30 carries to get over 100 yards, so I feel OK about that one. The nature of the defense is that we don't give up big plays in the run game and are stiff in the red zone. Don't expect to run easily against us.

Talent wise on Defense we return four ALL MWC Performers: DE B.J. Larsen, LB Kyler Fackrell (1-2 round projected pick), Zach Vigil SS Brian Suite. The nature of our 3-4 scheme is there is quite a bit of rotation in the front seven, so guys who have seen significant playing time, but didn't start are: Ricky Alifua, Travis Seefeldt, Elvis Kamana-Matagi, Nick Vigil,Eric Berntson, Tavaris McMillian.

Now for the scary part, secondary. WE had our starting corner and starting safety from last year drafted into the NFL. We only return one major contributor at strong safety in Brian Suite. I fully expect him to be drafted into the league, but the rest is worrisome. We have a Tennessee transfer slated to start at corner in Daniel Gray and fellow Floridian and three year contributor to start the other side in Rashard Stewart. Our other safety has seen time- Frankie Sutera, but I maybe able to beat him in a foot race. He also has given up big passing plays in the past. We have been quite vulnerable historically to long pass plays. Last season alone Utah, BYU, and USC torched us a few times on long passing plays. We play an aggressive style of defense and many times our CBs are left one on one with more athletic WR. I doubt we do this against Tennessee unless we want to get curb stomped immediately.

We have a few JC CB coming in, but you never know how they'll pan out. Overall the lack of returning depth in the secondary is my biggest concern. NO slight on Tennessee but I was not overly impressed with Worley. It maybe will be that I saw too small of a sample size, but he doesn't seem to be a world beater. I think the key to the game for Tennessee will be getting it to your big athletic receivers on slants, quick outs, etc. USU usually gets pressure because we blitz and have good LB.

Now for some tape, if you want to see some of the players I mentioned you can watch. Admittedly this is against a terrible Hawaii team, but you can see the guys you will be facing:

Brian Suite: 1:37, Frankie Sutera (slow, slow, slow) 2:41, Kyler Fackrell 3:01, 3:34 Happy to post more film if you'd like. Now tell me about your WR!

2013 USU vs Hawaii Highlight - YouTube

Thanks for the info good sir. Well, to start with let me explain my thoughts on Worley. Last year defenses simply had to double cover Marquez North and that effectively slowed our passing game. This year that will not be the case. I think he will look much improved in his second year in Jone's system and he's putting in a lot of camp work with some "gurus" this summer.

Marquez North - big, fast, athletic and some very sure hands, e.g. that one handed juggling catch he made to set us up for our win versus South Carolina. He's is only a sophomore and predicted to be drafted as the top or at least one of the top WRs when his time comes.

Jason Croom - Just began learning how to use his size (he's larger and taller than just about every secondary defender he faces) at the end of last season, and apparently has finally clicked on being physical as well as being fast. He is massive. He's the one on the right in the first post.

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/220048-croom-kamara-picture.html

Josh Malone - An in state 5* receiver who is a freshman, featured on a list I saw earlier as #13 on a list of 15 freshmen predicted to be impact players this year. Athletic, fast, and agile, he had a huge spring game performance, noted as one of the best by ESPN with 181 yards and 3 TDs, I don't know what that says about our defense lol.

Impact Freshmen: 15 guys who will be legit studs in 2014 | FOX Sports on MSN

Von Pearson - a highly touted Juco transfer, many have dubbed him the next C. Patterson, whether they are correct remains to be seen, but he seems (even against All-SEC rising sophomore CB Cam Sutton) to be able to juke defenders right out of their cleats, and has amazing athleticism. He already made SC Top 10 in spring practice. lol

Tennessee WR Von Pearson's #SCtop10 One-Handed Catch - YouTube

Pig Howard - a talented receiver, a very hard worker, had some issues this spring but is practicing again, and unfortunately made two costly mistakes that very well may have cost us the Vandy and Georgia game last year. Regardless, very talented and looking to make a difference this year, pretty shifty and good at getting that extra yard.

We have others, and they will contribute since keeping our guys fresh is key, so if others wish to fill him in or maybe expound upon our running backs?

 

[sjt18]

Mad, I have made some people mad by saying that UT should win this game comfortably. I say that based on two matchups primarily. One is UT's receiving group vs USU's secondary. The other is USU's WR's vs UT's secondary. I simply think the athletic advantage UT has at WR is going to be too much. Gray is fast. He's very fast. But he isn't big and iirc didn't fit in the SEC because he isn't physical. So if UT is in a 3 wide set with Croom on one side and North on the other... who does Gray cover? If Worley throws a jump ball to either, Gray loses.

I watched your spring game and perhaps there are other receivers that will play this fall... but the group I saw just didn't look good. UT's secondary has been through the ringer. But they will have experience and talent this fall.

At this point, I think those are the critical match ups. I see UT having an edge or significant advantage in both.


Worley has had a snake bit career. He was one of the most prolific passers in the history of HS football out of SC. He led his team to an impressive victory over Clowney's team as a SR. As a Fr, Dooley yanked his RS when Bray got hurt and Simms stunk it up. USCe was rough but he played pretty well vs MTSU and Ark. In his 3 starts, he actually had a better completion % than Bray or Simms did after UT lost Hunter in the UF game.

Last fall, he faced a new system with a bunch of WR's that Jones admitted didn't know what they were doing much of the time.

The best game for you to see his capabilities in with at least one WR that he has confidence in and in a familiar system... is MTSU in '11. He put some very nice passes in some very, very small windows.

I believe he will make good decisions, throw with good to excellent accuracy in short to mid-range passes, and will surprise people running the ball when he has to. If he continues to develop confidence with the WR's then he will throw deep balls effective enough to give them a chance to use their athleticism to make plays. I will be pleased to be proven wrong... but I don't look for him to throw the deep ball with close to the accuracy Bray did.

 

[Madmartigan]

Mad, I have made some people mad by saying that UT should win this game comfortably. I say that based on two matchups primarily. One is UT's receiving group vs USU's secondary. The other is USU's WR's vs UT's secondary. I simply think the athletic advantage UT has at WR is going to be too much. Gray is fast. He's very fast. But he isn't big and iirc didn't fit in the SEC because he isn't physical. So if UT is in a 3 wide set with Croom on one side and North on the other... who does Gray cover? If Worley throws a jump ball to either, Gray loses.

I watched your spring game and perhaps there are other receivers that will play this fall... but the group I saw just didn't look good. UT's secondary has been through the ringer. But they will have experience and talent this fall.

At this point, I think those are the critical match ups. I see UT having an edge or significant advantage in both.


Worley has had a snake bit career. He was one of the most prolific passers in the history of HS football out of SC. He led his team to an impressive victory over Clowney's team as a SR. As a Fr, Dooley yanked his RS when Bray got hurt and Simms stunk it up. USCe was rough but he played pretty well vs MTSU and Ark. In his 3 starts, he actually had a better completion % than Bray or Simms did after UT lost Hunter in the UF game.

Last fall, he faced a new system with a bunch of WR's that Jones admitted didn't know what they were doing much of the time.

The best game for you to see his capabilities in with at least one WR that he has confidence in and in a familiar system... is MTSU in '11. He put some very nice passes in some very, very small windows.

I believe he will make good decisions, throw with good to excellent accuracy in short to mid-range passes, and will surprise people running the ball when he has to. If he continues to develop confidence with the WR's then he will throw deep balls effective enough to give them a chance to use their athleticism to make plays. I will be pleased to be proven wrong... but I don't look for him to throw the deep ball with close to the accuracy Bray did.

UT should expect to win this game. Superior talent on both sides of the ball and a great homefield to boot. I don't fault any UT fan for thinking they'll win by a lot- I fault fans for not being objective and seeing there could be more to the game than just talent.

UT has better athletes and should win. Lately those athletes haven't executed well. You play a superior level of competition in the SEC, but you should still be competing with your peers. The program simply hasn't had a culture of winning lately, that can't be argued. The recent culture of USU has been one of expecting to win every game and working harder than the guy next to you. I've heard good things about Butch Jones, but the jury is still out until he wins

Your WR vs our corners definitely favors you. You have some guys that are nearly uncoverable with their size and athleticism. Your guys could very well make it a long day for us. A few things to consider: Will Worley be able to get them the ball (again not impressed with Worley). Will he have time? We have good OLB's and usually get pressure on every team we play. If Worley throws well and we don't pressure, we're screwed.

Our WR vs your secondary. This is one where I will disagree with you. Main point being it's tough to draw anything out of a youtube clip on spring game. Our offense last year looked terrible in all scrimmages- especially Chuckie Keeton. Then all he did was account for 22 TD and 2 int in the first five games. Watching UT's spring game you could conclude one of two things: Man UT's defense sucks, they can't tackle/cover OR Man UT has got some awesome skill guys on offense. Spring games really show nothing. This is hopelessly biased but our coaching staff has said the WR are the deepest and best we've had probably ever. The other key factor is Chuckie Keeton. IF he's right he can make mediocre receivers into all world guys- a la last year. Will he be right? You and I don't know that. I hope he is.

Overall looking forward to the game. I don't fault any Tennessee fan for thinking they will smash. I'd expect the same if I were a Vol fan.

 

[sjt18]

Bringing pressure as you say USU will by blitzes... is probably the worst thing USU can do. It plays into what Worley does best- make decisions, throw accurate short to mid range.


I was looking at the actual play of those receivers. Route running. Dropped passes. Aggressively playing the ball. Those aren't things you practice poorly then do well in games very often.

 

[Madmartigan]

Bringing pressure as you say USU will by blitzes... is probably the worst thing USU can do. It plays into what Worley does best- make decisions, throw accurate short to mid range.


I was looking at the actual play of those receivers. Route running. Dropped passes. Aggressively playing the ball. Those aren't things you practice poorly then do well in games very often.

Which one? I don't see any dropped balls being shown as highlights in a spring scrimmage game haha. We have a difference in opinion here, which is understandable. Tell me about your RBs.

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

Which one? I don't see any dropped balls being shown as highlights in a spring scrimmage game haha. We have a difference in opinion here, which is understandable. Tell me about your RBs.

In regards to our secondary, what constituted some poor play last year was a lack of speed and some players being forced into a role they were not meant to be in. That should be corrected this year, and overall team speed will be much higher, one of our freshman early enrollee CBs, Emmanuel Moseley, is even potentially going to start because he's very fast and athletic.

The running backs you are most likely to see:

Marlin Lane - a senior, backup to our 1000+ RB last year who still had plenty of carries and is good between the tackles, not great, and has decent speed and size. Overall, a well balanced, proven commodity.

Jalen Hurd - this kid, we believe and so do many outside viewers, will be special. He's listed 6'3" 221 but may be bigger after summer workouts, his junior year set a Tennessee state record by rushing for 3,357 yards and 43 TDs, was listed as the No. 33 overall 5* prospect by 247 sports and the number 28 overall 5* prospect by Rivals. Despite being tall and big, he also has been clocked at a 4.37 40 yard dash and is learning to be pretty shifty as well.

Derell Scott - unsure if he will play, described as being the shiftiest and most agile of the three freshmen we have, is also said to have silky smooth hands so might be ideal for slot play and such as well.

Treyvon Paulk - unsure if he will play or not either, he may redshirt since he suffered an injury later in his HS career, but he's been highly touted as well.

 

[Madmartigan]

In regards to our secondary, what constituted some poor play last year was a lack of speed and some players being forced into a role they were not meant to be in. That should be corrected this year, and overall team speed will be much higher, one of our freshman early enrollee CBs, Emmanuel Moseley, is even potentially going to start because he's very fast and athletic.

The running backs you are most likely to see:

Marlin Lane - a senior, backup to our 1000+ RB last year who still had plenty of carries and is good between the tackles, not great, and has decent speed and size. Overall, a well balanced, proven commodity.

Jalen Hurd - this kid, we believe and so do many outside viewers, will be special. He's listed 6'3" 221 but may be bigger after summer workouts, his junior year set a Tennessee state record by rushing for 3,357 yards and 43 TDs, was listed as the No. 33 overall 5* prospect by 247 sports and the number 28 overall 5* prospect by Rivals. Despite being tall and big, he also has been clocked at a 4.37 40 yard dash and is learning to be pretty shifty as well.

Derell Scott - unsure if he will play, described as being the shiftiest and most agile of the three freshmen we have, is also said to have silky smooth hands so might be ideal for slot play and such as well.

Treyvon Paulk - unsure if he will play or not either, he may redshirt since he suffered an injury later in his HS career, but he's been highly touted as well.

Any Arian Fosters waiting in the wings? hahaa. I expect your offense to be potent this year, if your WR produce as they are capable of doing and the QB gets them the ball.

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

Any Arian Fosters waiting in the wings? hahaa. I expect your offense to be potent this year, if your WR produce as they are capable of doing and the QB gets them the ball.

Haha we shall see who turns out to be the next big thing for us soon enough. My biggest worry (I guess it's better than last year) is the offense is great but it has to constantly try to make up for poor defense. If neither one is amazing but both are solid I'll be happy.

 

[Madmartigan]

Haha we shall see who turns out to be the next big thing for us soon enough. My biggest worry (I guess it's better than last year) is the offense is great but it has to constantly try to make up for poor defense. If neither one is amazing but both are solid I'll be happy.

To simplify and temper my expectations, I look at how I feel we are trending in each category:

Defense: Worse than last season

Offense: better than last season

 

[daj2576]

To simplify and temper my expectations, I look at how I feel we are trending in each category:

Defense: Worse than last season

Offense: better than last season

Here is how UT is trending. Check the talent change at each position group on the two deep.

Many will cite "lack of experience" in this group. That isn't a totally fair assessment. Experience matters but the bump in talent will override much of that making this a better team with far more potential than has been fielded in years. I expect some inconsistency but experience as a whole is overrated if you are significantly upgrading talent.

 

[sjt18]

Which one? I don't see any dropped balls being shown as highlights in a spring scrimmage game haha. We have a difference in opinion here, which is understandable. Tell me about your RBs.

I watched the whole thing. It was posted here awhile back.

Marlin Lane will likely start the season as 1a with Hurd as 1b. Lane is a tough inside runner with some shiftiness. He's generally north and south though. He lacks great top end speed but seems to get through holes pretty quick and can make one if needed.

Hurd looked extremely good in the spring game. I believe he was a consensus 5* recruit with great size, very good feet, and elite top end speed. Pickett earned PT with Maryland as a Fr and So before transferring and sitting out last year. D Young is a utility guy who has very good quickness and seems to be a pretty heady player. He's small though.

Paulk and Scott are coming in as Fr. Paulk seemed destined to be a 4-5* recruit and one of the best RB's in GA before a knee injury. Hard to say how he recovers.

Scott was a little light coming in but will gain weight in UT's S&C program. The recruiting svcs have him as a top 5 all purpose RB. He played against very good competition in HS and comes from the same area as Montario Hardesty. He appears to accelerate and cut extremely well.

UT's backfield isn't loaded with proven players. Lane is a very good RB. He comes in averaging 5 ypc for his career at UT. Other than that... you just have some very, very good looking athletes at the position. Like USU, Jones runs a variety of jet sweeps making Howard and Pearson potentially big elements of UT's run game.

 

[sjt18]

Here is how UT is trending. Check the talent change at each position group on the two deep.

Many will cite "lack of experience" in this group. That isn't a totally fair assessment. Experience matters but the bump in talent will override much of that making this a better team with far more potential than has been fielded in years. I expect some inconsistency but experience as a whole is overrated if you are significantly upgrading talent.

It would be near impossible to do... but I wonder how development works its way into the calculations. It seems that the biggest physical jump due to S&C for players is between their 1st and 2nd year with increases flattening out after that.

 

[Madmartigan]

It would be near impossible to do... but I wonder how development works its way into the calculations. It seems that the biggest physical jump due to S&C for players is between their 1st and 2nd year with increases flattening out after that.

Natural maturation and an elite S&C coach make huge differences as a player progresses. I think part of USU's success has been due to our S&C program and the fact that many of our players are a bit older and more mature due to Mormon missions. Players are generally a bit more mature and hardworking and that creates a culture where the only thing that's acceptable is working your tail off.

 

[Shakinthefat]

Latest poll results....

POLL
What will the result be for the USU-Tennessee game?

24% Usu by 10+
(487 votes)
6% USU by less than 10
(126 votes)
13% Tennessee by less than 10
(257 votes)
57% Tennessee by 10+
(1174 votes)
2044 votes total

 

[Madmartigan]

Latest poll results....

POLL
What will the result be for the USU-Tennessee game?

24% Usu by 10+
(487 votes)
6% USU by less than 10
(126 votes)
13% Tennessee by less than 10
(257 votes)
57% Tennessee by 10+
(1174 votes)
2044 votes total

You and your big, fancy, fan base. I admit defeat on the poll :hi:

 

[BruiserVol]

A few looks at a few of the early enrollee freshman in the spring game:

Josh Malone highlights from the O&W game. - YouTube

 

[BruiserVol]

Jalen Hurd highlights from O&W game - YouTube

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

Natural maturation and an elite S&C coach make huge differences as a player progresses. I think part of USU's success has been due to our S&C program and the fact that many of our players are a bit older and more mature due to Mormon missions. Players are generally a bit more mature and hardworking and that creates a culture where the only thing that's acceptable is working your tail off.

Indeed that does help. What makes me optimistic about the offense improving immediately is almost all of our EEs were on the offensive side of the ball, so they won't be learning everything for the first time against you guys. Defense on the other hand, will be for a large portion of the guys we field. That one is still up in the air.

 

[BruiserVol]

We also added ex Oklahoma WR Kameel Jackson as well this off season.

 

[Madmartigan]

Here is how UT is trending. Check the talent change at each position group on the two deep.

Many will cite "lack of experience" in this group. That isn't a totally fair assessment. Experience matters but the bump in talent will override much of that making this a better team with far more potential than has been fielded in years. I expect some inconsistency but experience as a whole is overrated if you are significantly upgrading talent.

Can you explain the numerical figures in your model 5.8, 5.9 5.7..?

 

[WilliamDuVOL]

Can you explain the numerical figures in your model 5.8, 5.9 5.7..?

Average star rating I believe.

 

[daj2576]

It would be near impossible to do... but I wonder how development works its way into the calculations. It seems that the biggest physical jump due to S&C for players is between their 1st and 2nd year with increases flattening out after that.

It seems to me that the only way to track that is with stagnant or declining talent. In our case, talent is increasing exponentially. I surmise it is far better to have top tier talent with little "experience" over bottom tier talent with lots of experience. Experience doesn't make a secondary faster or a wide receiver taller, for example. Yes, S&C programs matter but in the same evaluation, players labeled as "more talented" are generally farther along in that curve as well.

Bottom line: experience trumps when all else is equal. When talent isn't close, as here, pick the team who is vastly more talented.

 

[daj2576]

Can you explain the numerical figures in your model 5.8, 5.9 5.7..?

Those are the average star ranking of each player per rivals. Make no mistake, using only team averages of those rankings, and ignoring all other factors, predicts wins about 70% of the time.

Edit: I see the confusion. Those are the average scores that "stars" are based on.

 

[Madmartigan]

Those are the average star ranking of each player per rivals. Make no mistake, using only team averages of those rankings, and ignoring all other factors, predicts wins about 70% of the time.

I thought the highest star a recruit could receive was 5. Boy do I need to read up