Not too early....Utah State article

#126
#126
Madmartigan said:
Natural maturation and an elite S&C coach make huge differences as a player progresses. I think part of USU's success has been due to our S&C program and the fact that many of our players are a bit older and more mature due to Mormon missions. Players are generally a bit more mature and hardworking and that creates a culture where the only thing that's acceptable is working your tail off.
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How do you define success? Do you look at record alone without accounting for quality of opponent? There is no denying that USU is winning ball games. There is also no denying that USU doesn't beat teams who recruit in the top 79 teams. The devil is in those details.

Would you take an undefeated high school team over an SEC team with a losing record (top 50 recruiting in division 1 cfb)? If no, you realize the dearth in talent is fatal and therefore records aren't necessarily indicative of quality.
 
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#128
#128
daj2576 said:
How do you define success? Do you look at record alone without accounting for quality of opponent? There is no denying that USU is winning ball games. There is also no denying that USU doesn't beat teams who recruit in the top 79 teams. The devil is in those details.

Would you take an undefeated high school team over an SEC team with a losing record (top 50 recruiting in division 1 cfb)? If no, you realize the dearth in talent is fatal and therefore records aren't necessarily indicative of quality.
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It's all relative. USU for decades only had two winning seasons against the same competition we're winning against now. As a USU alum I understand our place within college football. We will never be Tennessee, Florida, Oregon, USC, or Texas. If I went to Tennessee I would define success in terms of SEC Titles, BCS Bowl wins, and National titles. As a USU fan my expectations naturally are less high. It's like the difference in what to expect in driving a Ferrari compared to a Nissan Maxima.
As we continue to win, expectations and definition of "success" will change of course, but for now 8-11 wins and bowl appearances are good for me.

All that said, Tennessee hasn't been winning ball games recently. You all are painfully aware of it. NO question you have a better program than USU, but you also have all the advantages created by your past success and conference affiliation: money, fanbase, facilities, access to athletes. You aren't competing with your peers, which you should be. To expect USU to compete consistently with other top programs that have these advantages while USU doesn't have these advantages is naive.
My point in this ramble? No one is claiming USU has the program Tennessee has. USU's program is getting better and it happens one down at a time. Tennessee should improve too and quickly.
Would I take Tennessee's program? Absolutely. DO I care about our strength of opponent? Sure, but not much USU can do about it at this instant. I take USU because I'm an alum and think the program is trending upward.

P.S. I'm still not sure what the main point to that post was. A rant mostly.
 
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#129
#129
Madmartigan said:
It's all relative. USU for decades only had two winning seasons against the same competition we're winning against now. As a USU alum I understand our place within college football. We will never be Tennessee, Florida, Oregon, USC, or Texas. If I went to Tennessee I would define success in terms of SEC Titles, BCS Bowl wins, and National titles. As a USU fan my expectations naturally are less high. It's like the difference in what to expect in driving a Ferrari compared to a Nissan Maxima.
As we continue to win, expectations and definition of "success" will change of course, but for now 8-11 wins and bowl appearances are good for me.

All that said, Tennessee hasn't been winning ball games recently. You all are painfully aware of it. NO question you have a better program than USU, but you also have all the advantages created by your past success and conference affiliation: money, fanbase, facilities, access to athletes. You aren't competing with your peers, which you should be. To expect USU to compete consistently with other top programs that have these advantages while USU doesn't have these advantages is naive.
My point in this ramble? No one is claiming USU has the program Tennessee has. USU's program is getting better and it happens one down at a time. Tennessee should improve too and quickly.
Would I take Tennessee's program? Absolutely. DO I care about our strength of opponent? Sure, but not much USU can do about it at this instant. I take USU because I'm an alum and think the program is trending upward.

P.S. I'm still not sure what the main point to that post was. A rant mostly.
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In summary: it seems you only care about record. That's fine, that tends to be the prevailing wisdom. I love your passion for your alma mater as I passionately love mine.

Read this for a more thorough explanation of my view: If I Bleed Orange, I'm Bled Out: Don't Sweat Utah State.
 
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#130
#130
daj2576 said:
In summary: it seems you only care about record. That's fine, that tends to be the prevailing wisdom. I love your passion for your alma mater as I passionately love mine.

Read this for a more thorough explanation of my view: If I Bleed Orange, I'm Bled Out: Don't Sweat Utah State.
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For a school like Utah State, you have to win games to recruit better. We don't have the other advantages. Why would a player want to come to a losing G5 program? That's why i take the winning games as a better side. If we played a murderous schedule, well we'd lose 70% of the time and that would in no way help recruiting.
 
#132
#132
Madmartigan said:
For a school like Utah State, you have to win games to recruit better. We don't have the other advantages. Why would a player want to come to a losing G5 program? That's why i take the winning games as a better side. If we played a murderous schedule, well we'd lose 70% of the time and that would in no way help recruiting.
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I dont understand. Your recruiting is consistently in the bottom 20. Have all those wins, then, helped recruiting?
 
#133
#133
daj2576 said:
I dont understand. Your recruiting is consistently in the bottom 20. Have all those wins, then, helped recruiting?
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Do you really not understand? How long have they been winning? I agree with the aggie. Play an OOC opponent from a major conference (get the payday) and spend the rest of the season trying to win games, get bowl eligible, sell tickets and try to grow the program. They are not going to compete with the SEC for players or even the PAC 12.
 
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#134
#134
thebjd said:
Do you really not understand? How long have they been winning? I agree with the aggie. Play an OOC opponent from a major conference (get the payday) and spend the rest of the season trying to win games, get bowl eligible, sell tickets and try to grow the program. They are not going to compete with the SEC for players or even the PAC 12.
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I understand his hypothesis but not the supporting data.
 
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#136
#136
Madmartigan said:
For a school like Utah State, you have to win games to recruit better. We don't have the other advantages. Why would a player want to come to a losing G5 program? That's why i take the winning games as a better side. If we played a murderous schedule, well we'd lose 70% of the time and that would in no way help recruiting.
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Just want to tell you that I appreciate your honest input. Fans like you are what keeps the game and rivalries fun. I hope you enjoy Knoxville and get the opportunity to stay an extra day. I believe Boomsday is the Monday after the game. Knoxville will be rocking the entire weekend.
 
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#137
#137
KoachKletus said:
Just want to tell you that I appreciate your honest input. Fans like you are what keeps the game and rivalries fun. I hope you enjoy Knoxville and get the opportunity to stay an extra day. I believe Boomsday is the Monday after the game. Knoxville will be rocking the entire weekend.
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Boomsday is the night before the game. So yes it will be a wonderful weekend in Knoxville.
 
#138
#138
Madmartigan said:
For a school like Utah State, you have to win games to recruit better. We don't have the other advantages. Why would a player want to come to a losing G5 program? That's why i take the winning games as a better side. If we played a murderous schedule, well we'd lose 70% of the time and that would in no way help recruiting.
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I would like to say that playing us the first game of the year really increases your chance of winning. We will be playing a lot of freshmen and I am sure they will make a lot of mistakes the first few games.
I expect us to win but the truth is your team could very well walk away with a win , we will just have to see what happens on game day.

I have enjoyed reading your post and am glad to have you on the boards.

cheers
 
#139
#139
daj2576 said:
I understand his hypothesis but not the supporting data.
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Since 1980, until most recently, the Aggies had a total of two winning seasons and two bowl appearances. That's a whole lot of losing. So when you say the data doesn't support the hypothesis I don't think your data is taking into account how truly awful USU was for decades. We were quite literally one of the ten worst FBS programs for more than thirty years.
Our most recent string of "success" started in 2011 when we finished 7-6 and went to a bowl. 2012 we finished 11-2 and won a bowl. 2013 we finished 9-5 and beat a ranked opponent in a bowl.
We had been losing to teams that are our peers both geographically and recruiting wise for years. We are starting to beat those teams. Recruiting is going to take some time to improve. I think you have unrealistic expectations for USU's recruiting. It won't be flipped overnight and we're never going to compete with the likes of even Utah or BYU consistently for recruits. I hope this helps with your "data". You seem only able to look at things in terms of what numbers can measure and not consider factors like: size of athletic budget, history, league we play in, facilities, fanbase, and location.
I'm open to a separate hypothesis for how USU can improve recruiting. We play in the league we play in, so our SOS will always be weakened to a certain extent. You seem to be equating a MW team's recruiting with an SEC team's recruiting, not on equal footing at all.
 
#140
#140
daj2576 said:
In summary: it seems you only care about record. That's fine, that tends to be the prevailing wisdom. I love your passion for your alma mater as I passionately love mine.

Read this for a more thorough explanation of my view: If I Bleed Orange, I'm Bled Out: Don't Sweat Utah State.
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Good work and analysis. However, one thing you can never fully account for is the human side of the game. The part you can't put a number on. I wonder how the recruiting and schedule numbers would compare against South Alabama who was within 10-15 yards from taking us to OT. Same for Troy. Who knows how we will handle diversity if we should get down early or make mistakes. How will Utah St. react if they get UP early. Lower ranked players may play up a notch or two due to that confidence.
 
#141
#141
FBtime said:
Good work and analysis. However, one thing you can never fully account for is the human side of the game. The part you can't put a number on. I wonder how the recruiting and schedule numbers would compare against South Alabama who was within 10-15 yards from taking us to OT. Same for Troy. Who knows how we will handle diversity if we should get down early or make mistakes. How will Utah St. react if they get UP early. Lower ranked players may play up a notch or two due to that confidence.
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As I've tried to explain, and I understand the manifold reasons why this doesn't translate well, all other factors besides talent fall into the 30% of the time that talent doesn't correctly predict wins.
 
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#142
#142
Madmartigan said:
Since 1980, until most recently, the Aggies had a total of two winning seasons and two bowl appearances. That's a whole lot of losing. So when you say the data doesn't support the hypothesis I don't think your data is taking into account how truly awful USU was for decades. We were quite literally one of the ten worst FBS programs for more than thirty years.
Our most recent string of "success" started in 2011 when we finished 7-6 and went to a bowl. 2012 we finished 11-2 and won a bowl. 2013 we finished 9-5 and beat a ranked opponent in a bowl.
We had been losing to teams that are our peers both geographically and recruiting wise for years. We are starting to beat those teams. Recruiting is going to take some time to improve. I think you have unrealistic expectations for USU's recruiting. It won't be flipped overnight and we're never going to compete with the likes of even Utah or BYU consistently for recruits. I hope this helps with your "data". You seem only able to look at things in terms of what numbers can measure and not consider factors like: size of athletic budget, history, league we play in, facilities, fanbase, and location.
I'm open to a separate hypothesis for how USU can improve recruiting. We play in the league we play in, so our SOS will always be weakened to a certain extent. You seem to be equating a MW team's recruiting with an SEC team's recruiting, not on equal footing at all.
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What I'm saying is that it doesn't seem to matter how many wins you get, your recruiting isn't really improving. That is only important because you appeared to state that wins brings recruits, and I'm saying that your history doesn't support that.

My ultimate point is that win loss records, and bowl appearances, are actually meaningless as a way to determine how good any two teams are if they share no common opponents. Sadly that is the paradigm by which the media and average fan seems to use to create perspective.

It is entirely possible, if not probable, that a team could be undefeated, play in a weak conference with lower tier talent and still be far worse than a winless team from a strong conference who has upper tier talent.
 
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#143
#143
daj2576 said:
It seems to me that the only way to track that is with stagnant or declining talent. In our case, talent is increasing exponentially. I surmise it is far better to have top tier talent with little "experience" over bottom tier talent with lots of experience. Experience doesn't make a secondary faster or a wide receiver taller, for example. Yes, S&C programs matter but in the same evaluation, players labeled as "more talented" are generally farther along in that curve as well.

Bottom line: experience trumps when all else is equal. When talent isn't close, as here, pick the team who is vastly more talented.
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I can agree on experience. But physical maturity and development can factor in a pretty significant way. Mizzou has made a living on taking 6'4" 225 lb, 2* OT's and turning them into effective OL's by their RS Soph season.

Most of these guys seem to make their biggest physical jumps due to S&C between their first and second season.

You can coach over experience to a large degree if you have the right players. Development and maturity take time.

Agreed that the better recruits do not have as far to go physically so that factors in as well.
 
#144
#144
sjt18 said:
I can agree on experience. But physical maturity and development can factor in a pretty significant way. Mizzou has made a living on taking 6'4" 225 lb, 2* OT's and turning them into effective OL's by their RS Soph season.

Most of these guys seem to make their biggest physical jumps due to S&C between their first and second season.

You can coach over experience to a large degree if you have the right players. Development and maturity take time.

Agreed that the better recruits do not have as far to go physically so that factors in as well.
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Your point about Mizzou actually helps reinforce my position as well. They don't tend to really perform above expectations in relation to talent. Last year was an outlier, at least as far as I have looked at them specifically.
 
#145
#145
daj2576 said:
Your point about Mizzou actually helps reinforce my position as well. They don't tend to really perform above expectations in relation to talent. Last year was an outlier, at least as far as I have looked at them specifically.
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Didn't you say that it was basically a 70% probability of the superior talented team winning the matchup in each instance? I have assumed that the reason it is not higher is based on coaching, development and experience. This outlier when combined with the prior years of not performing above expectations probably gets you close to your statistical predictability.
 
#147
#147
chatt-townVOL said:
Well I got caught up in a debate in the comments of the article. I tend to struggle with this.
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Understand, likewise. I think I am correct in stating USU has exactly 4 starters returning on their D, so like their homey has stated, they will be trending down on D. I also note they only have around 5-6 starters returning on offense, and though the great injured QB returns, not much of his OL does nor any of the primary ball carriers. Give them a slight bump maybe on offense due to the QB, but that is being generous, and it is not like they did squat against any ranked teams or even good teams last year. They lose to Utah, BYU, etc., all the teams with a pulse. If their claim to fame is beating NIU, so be it. Where did they ever show the ability last season to beat an SEC team? And they lose most guys on both sides of the ball this year? UT will show them why they are in the MWC and not in a Big 5 league. Probably will be a good little team with moxie and all that, but will be pile driven by 3rd quarter. Mark it.
 
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#148
#148
Rooster1 said:
Understand, likewise. I think I am correct in stating USU has exactly 4 starters returning on their D, so like their homey has stated, they will be trending down on D. I also note they only have around 5-6 starters returning on offense, and though the great injured QB returns, not much of his OL does nor any of the primary ball carriers. Give them a slight bump maybe on offense due to the QB, but that is being generous, and it is not like they did squat against any ranked teams or even good teams last year. They lose to Utah, BYU, etc., all the teams with a pulse. If their claim to fame is beating NIU, so be it. Where did they ever show the ability last season to beat an SEC team? And they lose most guys on both sides of the ball this year? UT will show them why they are in the MWC and not in a Big 5 league. Probably will be a good little team with moxie and all that, but will be pile driven by 3rd quarter. Mark it.
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I don't doubt Tennessee will win this game. I think unless Utah State has some fortunate bounces it is Tennessee's to lose. I don't think Utah State will be blown out in this game. Utah State rarely gets blown out. We did get blown out by BYU last year after losing our best offensive player for the game. Besides that in the last three years we've played everybody, including teams with superior talent pretty closely. I'm expecting a close game.
 
#149
#149
Madmartigan said:
I don't doubt Tennessee will win this game. I think unless Utah State has some fortunate bounces it is Tennessee's to lose. I don't think Utah State will be blown out in this game. Utah State rarely gets blown out. We did get blown out by BYU last year after losing our best offensive player for the game. Besides that in the last three years we've played everybody, including teams with superior talent pretty closely. I'm expecting a close game.
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First off, I appreciate you being able to discuss the game and be level headed. One thing to keep in mind about this game...both teams had significant losses to starters as far as number of lettermen lost. Tennessee is replacing those losses with #5 recruiting class in the nation including 14 players who were early enrollees. Utah St. is replacing them with a class ranked somewhere around #100. So yes, both teams lost a lot but many of the players we lost were under performing players on less than talented teams. Utah St. is losing very talented players from very good teams.
 
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#150
#150
FBtime said:
First off, I appreciate you being able to discuss the game and be level headed. One thing to keep in mind about this game...both teams had significant losses to starters as far as number of lettermen lost. Tennessee is replacing those losses with #5 recruiting class in the nation including 14 players who were early enrollees. Utah St. is replacing them with a class ranked somewhere around #100. So yes, both teams lost a lot but many of the players we lost were under performing players on less than talented teams. Utah St. is losing very talented players from very good teams.
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Lots of question marks on both sides. I rest my faith on the fact that USU returns its two best offensive players, albeit from very serious injury. We still have one of the better LB corps out there. No question Tennessee has superior talent on both sides of the ball.
 
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